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The life of a trading system on Forex Factory

  • #1,561
  • May 1, 2012 4:09pm May 1, 2012 4:09pm
Quoting 60minuteman
...I know nothing about market flow, big banks, big boys etc etc... just putting lines down, waiting for 2 or 3 price action triggers, then some simple money management...

Lines and Price Action Triggers.

That's just as good as any trading tactic, or method. And, there are people out there who have been successful with simple ideas. But, not until they learn what works and what does not work and that process takes time, energy, effort and organization.

Eight (8) trades is not a track record covering eight (8) years. Lines on a chart can be calculated, unless they are arbitrary. Price Action can also be calculated, unless the the formation of price sought after is arbitrary. Unless the entirety of the method, or tactic used is completely arbitrary, then it can be subjected historical testing - provided there exists a platform capable of conducting such tests, given the rules of the trade logic.

Trade logic, is what drives the outcome for any trade. How one gets there, can be very different than the way others might arrive. But, at the end of the day, trade logic determines whether or not consistency in all market conditions is the rule, rather than the exception. And, trade logic that stands the test of time, is typically obtained through research, testing and observation, over extended periods of time. Otherwise, one would never know what that same trade logic will do, once the current market conditions shift, bringing about a different theory of the market.

Outstanding returns, by the way!
The Event Horizon
  • #1,562
  • May 1, 2012 4:11pm May 1, 2012 4:11pm
Quoting the redlion
how do you trade?
and how do you manage risk?
No one is trying to manage risk like you are, they just put a SL in and work out what they can afford to lose for the lot size, where as your trying to build some uber complicated risk reducing model.

You reduce risk and you'll reduce profit, there is always a trade off, if you crack it you'll end up with an account which falls very slowly, the spread cost.

How do you trade ?? is always near on impossible to explain, your brain is wired different to most, as is mine so you likely wouldn't understand it.

What is your IQ out of interest ??
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #1,563
  • May 1, 2012 4:14pm May 1, 2012 4:14pm
99% of people fail and this thread seems to be full of profitable traders, suspicous, me never!!
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #1,564
  • May 1, 2012 4:21pm May 1, 2012 4:21pm
Quoting Turveyd
It's easy when you know, how as is everything
Yeah, but getting there is the hard part.

There's absolutely nothing easy about "getting there." That part is very, very tough to accomplish.

Just ask any Ph.D., that has attempted to become a consistently profitable trader, under all market conditions with a defined accounting period for profit per trade.

If you have no defined interval for taking profits, then almost anyone can say they are a successful trader. Just take a position small enough, use no stop and sit around until the market moves into profit. Whether that takes 1 minute, or 1 year, does not matter because there is no defined interval for accounting for profit.

But, once you cross the line and say that you are a Intra-Day Trader. Well, everything changes entirely, because now you must account for profits within a 24 hour period, or less. It gets even harder if you define yourself as a Scalper, because now you have to define profit on a Per Trade Cycle basis, which can easily be well under 24 hours.

The smaller the time interval for recording profits, the more difficult it is to be consistently profitable over prolonged periods of time.
The Event Horizon
  • #1,565
  • May 1, 2012 4:24pm May 1, 2012 4:24pm
Quoting the redlion

what is the statistics of people FAILING to learn to drive a car and people FAILING to be consistently profitable?

is it a valid comparison?
Well they can both perform the task (driving and trading) but how many are proficient enough not to have accidents or driving convictions? Besides, there are set criteria for entry into driving, not so in trading. Before we can deduce anything from the trader failure stats we need to know who makes up the sample, I suspect a large percentage are wholly unsuitable, unprepared, and underfunded, they use it like a glorified online slot machine!


Quoting the redlion

you said inter bank losing money, and big specs losing money is not a fair comparison due to the size of the portfolio, however i dare to question... if professional traders with big purchasing power fail.. one example UBS losing 2 billion in one trade. How does a simple strategy make a small spec consistently profitable.
Liquidity, counterparty, retail traders have more flexibility. We're not responsible for making price, we merely follow in their wake. It's far easier to be a trend follower than a trend setter.


Quoting the redlion

how do you trade?
How? What, you mean strategy/analysis?


Quoting the redlion

and how do you manage risk?
With a stop, that's pretty much standard in short term speculative forex trading. Sorry coming from you the question sounded too simple, have I missed the real/underlying question?
  • #1,566
  • May 1, 2012 4:28pm May 1, 2012 4:28pm
Quoting iDouble
Yeah, but getting there is the hard part.

There's absolutely nothing easy about "getting there." That part is very, very tough to accomplish.

Just ask any Ph.D., that has attempted to become a consistently profitable trader, under all market conditions with a defined accounting period for profit per trade.

If you have no defined interval for taking profits, then almost anyone can say they are a successful trader. Just take a position small enough, use no stop and sit around until the market moves into profit. Whether that takes 1 minute,...
It's the SL's being hit, which rack up the spread costs it may seem small, but it's very hard to over come, the smaller a SL you use then the worse the impact is.

Previous $1 Mini account, 3000 trades over 7 years or something, -$1600 I think or similar over that time, the spread cost me $9000 without that cost I'd of been +$7400 and compounding so likely much much more.

But the bigger the SL, the less control your have over your position and it rapidly becomes a near 50/50 wait and see game.
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #1,567
  • May 1, 2012 4:36pm May 1, 2012 4:36pm
Quoting iDouble

The smaller the time interval for recording profits, the more difficult it is to be consistently profitable over prolonged periods of time.
And I'd say the complete opposite! The longer the time frame the more potential for influences on market sentiment. Scalping (the retail forex trader's definition), although fairly intense, can produce some exceptional performance stats.
  • #1,568
  • May 1, 2012 4:42pm May 1, 2012 4:42pm
Quoting pipmutt
And I'd say the complete opposite! The longer the time frame the more potential for influences on market sentiment. Scalping (the retail forex trader's definition), although fairly intense, can produce some exceptional performance stats.

This is correct, the longer you hold the trade via bigger SL / TP then the closer this will become to a 50/50 game.

Why everyone is obsessed with H4, you lose your money slower if your not very good, but only make very slowly to if you are good, as it becomes a near 50/50 +/- a few % only depending on your skill *


* there are people which work out there own edge and out perform, but few.
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #1,569
  • May 1, 2012 4:44pm May 1, 2012 4:44pm
Quoting iDouble

There's no college degree to prepare one for such a career, and it does not become obvious how to do this right, until a lot of time, energy and effort gets expended, finding out what does not work and why.
True, except for the 'why', I don't think that's necessary.

Perhaps I'm making light of how much effort it took, memories fade with time, especially the unpleasant ones (of which there were many!).
  • #1,570
  • May 1, 2012 4:49pm May 1, 2012 4:49pm
Quoting iDouble
Lines and Price Action Triggers.

That's just as good as any trading tactic, or method. And, there are people out there who have been successful with simple ideas. But, not until they learn what works and what does not work and that process takes time, energy, effort and organization.

Eight (8) trades is not a track record covering eight (8) years. Lines on a chart can be calculated, unless they are arbitrary. Price Action can also be calculated, unless the the formation of price sought after is arbitrary. Unless the entirety of the method,...
I agree, Its a case of being able to take all of the little hints from weekly all the way down to H1 and piecing them together to give you a high probability... it takes time and practice, and an excellent trader to teach you... but the end results is something elegant and ultimately simple.

Yes 8 trades means nothing, but once you know what to look for you can see it happening over and over again, with all the hints and clues you need.
tradewith60
  • #1,571
  • May 1, 2012 4:50pm May 1, 2012 4:50pm
Quoting Turveyd
This is correct, the longer you hold the trade via bigger SL / TP then the closer this will become to a 50/50 game.

Why everyone is obsessed with H4, you lose your money slower if your not very good, but only make very slowly to if you are good, as it becomes a near 50/50 +/- a few % only depending on your skill *


* there are people which work out there own edge and out perform, but few.
Turveyd I have no idea of any of the logic behind your posts, I don't even understand half of them! The feeling is probably mutual so......

Anyway I thought I was on your ignore list, please put me back there, that way I save the time it takes to reply to your replies to my posts!!

Kindest Regards,

Over and Out!

Mutt
  • #1,572
  • May 1, 2012 4:53pm May 1, 2012 4:53pm
Quoting pipmutt
Turveyd I have no idea of any of the logic behind your posts, I don't even understand half of them! The feeling is probably mutual so......

Anyway I thought I was on your ignore list, please put me back there, that way I save the time it takes to reply to your replies to my posts!!

Kindest Regards,

Over and Out!

Mutt

And I thought, you where actually not going to be dick for 1 evening LOL

Please feel free to share some of your bad experiences so I can repeat them endlessly to you and see how you like it.

You put me on ignore even better, when your not being a DICK your actual almost sensible unbelievably.
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #1,573
  • May 1, 2012 4:56pm May 1, 2012 4:56pm
Quoting iDouble
The smaller the time interval for recording profits, the more difficult it is to be consistently profitable over prolonged periods of time.
To put things in perspective, I'm an intraday trader, and probably 99% of my trades last less than 2.5 hours.

I wouldnt dream of accounting for PnL on a day by day basis, its complete insanity. I track PnL by month, but even thats far too short a period. If I'm profitable at the end of a year, thats perfectly acceptable.

The problem with looking at performance over small periods of time is that you are not looking at performance, you are looking at varience.
  • #1,574
  • May 1, 2012 5:01pm May 1, 2012 5:01pm
Quoting Razzle
To put things in perspective, I'm an intraday trader, and probably 99% of my trades last less than 2.5 hours.

I wouldnt dream of accounting for PnL on a day by day basis, its complete insanity. I track PnL by month, but even thats far too short a period. If I'm profitable at the end of a year, thats perfectly acceptable.

The problem with looking at performance over small periods of time is that you are not looking at performance, you are looking at varience.
Excellent points.
  • #1,575
  • May 1, 2012 5:02pm May 1, 2012 5:02pm
Quoting Razzle
To put things in perspective, I'm an intraday trader, and probably 99% of my trades last less than 2.5 hours.

I wouldnt dream of accounting for PnL on a day by day basis, its complete insanity. I track PnL by month, but even thats far too short a period. If I'm profitable at the end of a year, thats perfectly acceptable.

The problem with looking at performance over small periods of time is that you are not looking at performance, you are looking at varience.
you could also add how many trades per day/week... if you only take 2 trades a day a month doesn't mean much either... I go by blocks of a 100 trades, however long that takes.
tradewith60
  • #1,576
  • May 1, 2012 5:04pm May 1, 2012 5:04pm
Quoting Turveyd

And I thought, you where actually not going to be dick for 1 evening LOL
No mate I'm always a dick, it's part of my charm and my most endearing feature.


Quoting Turveyd

Please feel free to share some of your bad experiences so I can repeat them endlessly to you and see how you like it.
Talking to you is one that springs to mind!


Quoting Turveyd

when your not being a DICK your actual almost sensible unbelievably.
Only 'almost'? I must try harder.......
  • #1,577
  • May 1, 2012 5:08pm May 1, 2012 5:08pm
Quoting pipmutt
No mate I'm always a dick, it's part of my charm and my most endearing feature.




Talking to you is one that springs to mind!




Only 'almost'? I must try harder.......
Yep DICK!!!
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #1,578
  • May 1, 2012 5:20pm May 1, 2012 5:20pm
I see the OP has left, has he started a pay site yet?
tradewith60
  • #1,579
  • May 1, 2012 5:24pm May 1, 2012 5:24pm
Quoting 60minuteman
I see the OP has left, has he started a pay site yet?

Everyone else seems to be around here, I guess it's to late to jump on that bandwagon.

Nicely posted up full days trades earlier, all the math worked out so going to say it's real or you took a long time doing it, demo account I presume though ??

Would like to see more data, trade times exact numbers so I can analysis it in detail.
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #1,580
  • May 1, 2012 5:25pm May 1, 2012 5:25pm
p.s. long day, very tired, words aren't working tonight.
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
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