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AUD/USD

  • #43,681
  • May 1, 2012 1:08am May 1, 2012 1:08am
Quoting Eulogy
While certainly our housing market never became as inflated as the monstrosity in the US in 06/07 it certainly isn't pretty either. Please don't tell me that you think a measly 1-3% drop in the housing market means its hit a bottom. You are sounding alot like one of those pundit chanting market bottom, market bottom, market bottom all throughout the GFC.

I'm just hoping you don't fall into the trap that its all clear sailing from now on.....
no i am not, I was one of the few telling idiots at my work that housing prices will come off. I was told to shut up and i had no idea. in 08 when the rba came out and saidd no more rate rises i was to scared to pull the trigger on big shorts on the aud at .98 I will never forget that missed opportunity. also at the GFC bottom I thought it would go lower! was shocked it revesred so quickly for the 09 rally.

House prices where way overflated and had to come down like any extended rally in a market. But like all sell offs things turn. I think they will rise but not like they did in 09/10 but flat to smaller gains, yes I do think that it will start to happen. I just see a fair value Chanel with our interest rates between 4 and 8%, we have breached that and that's why i think they will not drop further.

scfx
The best indicator is price.
  • #43,682
  • May 1, 2012 1:19am May 1, 2012 1:19am
I'm Australian, and I'm short as of 9 hours ago, take profit at 1.0279 for a potential 150 pips
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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In the days of old when sailors were bold, and seldom if ever contented.
  • #43,683
  • May 1, 2012 1:23am May 1, 2012 1:23am
The bands break overbought was big on the daily, that triggered my search for the entry this morning.
In the days of old when sailors were bold, and seldom if ever contented.
  • #43,684
  • May 1, 2012 1:45am May 1, 2012 1:45am
Quoting pt49
I'm Australian, and I'm short as of 9 hours ago, take profit at 1.0279 for a potential 150 pips
nice trade enjoy your rewards... make sure u send a thanks to the RBA!
  • #43,685
  • May 1, 2012 2:52am May 1, 2012 2:52am
I feel very much like the only one that has seen the aussie in quite a long term down trend. Since 1.08 ish

I am shor 3.5 lots atm with further shorts at 1.0285 1.0250 & 1.0230 to be executed.

We have not seen a REAL EUR or USD reaction to the 0.5 basis point cut,

This is something I believe will be days in the making.

My money is on a lower than the current 1.0320 finish to the week and even a potential to see a 1.01XXX

Only my opinion but there has not been any string CNY news and ALL the AUD news has been sub par.

This should continue to fuel the bear.

I must confess I have S/L's (well they are stop profit's) on all my shorts and no greater than 30 point S/L's on the orders I have outstanding.

my May thoughts are a test toward the magic 1.00 mark then a rebound to potential 1.05 mark.

lol I have been know to be very wrong and probably am again. But This has been my feeling for the last couple of weeks and all the negative data is just fuelling it.
  • #43,686
  • May 1, 2012 2:59am May 1, 2012 2:59am
Any predictions for the new york open?

I can see 1.0250 being touched with-in the next 12 hours.
  • #43,687
  • May 1, 2012 3:09am May 1, 2012 3:09am
Quoting MitchL
I feel very much like the only one that has seen the aussie in quite a long term down trend. Since 1.08 ish

I am shor 3.5 lots atm with further shorts at 1.0285 1.0250 & 1.0230 to be executed.

We have not seen a REAL EUR or USD reaction to the 0.5 basis point cut,

This is something I believe will be days in the making.

My money is on a lower than the current 1.0320 finish to the week and even a potential to see a 1.01XXX

Only my opinion but there has not been any string CNY news and ALL the AUD news has been sub par.

This...

Interesting senitment my friend. Not too far from my prediction, defo think it will be heading down towards parity in very near future.
  • #43,688
  • May 1, 2012 3:10am May 1, 2012 3:10am
Quoting MitchL
I feel very much like the only one that has seen the aussie in quite a long term down trend. Since 1.08 ish

I am shor 3.5 lots atm with further shorts at 1.0285 1.0250 & 1.0230 to be executed.

We have not seen a REAL EUR or USD reaction to the 0.5 basis point cut,

This is something I believe will be days in the making.

My money is on a lower than the current 1.0320 finish to the week and even a potential to see a 1.01XXX

Only my opinion but there has not been any string CNY news and ALL the AUD news has been sub par.

This...
Both my indicators (100 EMA and Stochs) on the daily are suggesting to short the pair as well.
  • #43,689
  • May 1, 2012 3:14am May 1, 2012 3:14am
Quoting EG-FX
Both my indicators (100 EMA and Stochs) on the daily are suggesting to short the pair as well.
check them stochs on lower time-frames most at the bottom
  • #43,690
  • May 1, 2012 3:21am May 1, 2012 3:21am
Quoting MitchL
I am shor 3.5 lots atm with further shorts at 1.0285 1.0250 & 1.0230 to be executed.
... hope for you its live... myself, I'll be very happy if I get my 150 pips for a 24 hr trade.
In the days of old when sailors were bold, and seldom if ever contented.
  • #43,691
  • May 1, 2012 3:33am May 1, 2012 3:33am
Quoting Noobicle
check them stochs on lower time-frames most at the bottom
Neither the H1 nor H4 are showing signs of crossing up just yet. I'm using 20,3,3.

I think the 50 bps cut in interest rate is positive for the bears now that interest rate differentials and negative carry are far less intimidating!
  • #43,692
  • May 1, 2012 3:46am May 1, 2012 3:46am
Quoting EG-FX
Neither the H1 nor H4 are showing signs of crossing up just yet. I'm using 20,3,3.

I think the 50 bps cut in interest rate is positive for the bears now that interest rate differentials and negative carry are far less intimidating!
yeah just some hope for the bulls (i know how it feels to be on the wrong side while u sit here an read how the other side is doing!) but i dont htink itll be much of a rally, stoch on h4 are pretty low though an it sitting on nice support at 300 but...u never know anything can happen

imo
  • #43,693
  • May 1, 2012 4:08am May 1, 2012 4:08am
1 more time

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  • #43,694
  • May 1, 2012 4:13am May 1, 2012 4:13am
Quoting Noobicle
yeah just some hope for the bulls (i know how it feels to be on the wrong side while u sit here an read how the other side is doing!) but i dont htink itll be much of a rally, stoch on h4 are pretty low though an it sitting on nice support at 300 but...u never know anything can happen

imo
Based on what im looking at I see a small retracement up to around 0345-0360 before dropping to between 0230-0250... but like you say, anything can happen and depends on NY open...
  • #43,695
  • May 1, 2012 4:17am May 1, 2012 4:17am
more likely to see some minor rally before moving down. with bank holidays, doubt action to be heavy, most are stops and pending orders.
  • #43,696
  • May 1, 2012 4:21am May 1, 2012 4:21am
Quoting Freshpips
Based on what im looking at I see a small retracement up to around 0345-0360 before dropping to between 0230-0250... but like you say, anything can happen and depends on NY open...
agree...think few of us got them numbers zzz
  • #43,697
  • May 1, 2012 4:26am May 1, 2012 4:26am
Quoting smilemiz
oh hi...
hai je?hehe
Bismillah
  • #43,698
  • May 1, 2012 4:30am May 1, 2012 4:30am
Quoting smilemiz
hi


seldomly i see young girl trade fx,hehe
Bismillah
  • #43,699
  • May 1, 2012 4:32am May 1, 2012 4:32am
This dip has eaten half of my profit.Hope it will not eat up the rest.
  • #43,700
  • May 1, 2012 4:34am May 1, 2012 4:34am
Quoting smilemiz
no.. i am guyyyy

just chill out.. dont mind
hahaha.u are girl...i had see ur pic previously..so cute..hehe
Bismillah
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