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The life of a trading system on Forex Factory

  • #1,261
  • Apr 28, 2012 7:33pm Apr 28, 2012 7:33pm
Quoting bluesteele
Turved Spzd is right. Averaging down does not work you should work on your entries. Isnt that obvious?
My account and my stat's say IT DOES!! end of story!!

I like it when the 2nd position fills then it takes off, I'm annoyed when a 100pip move happens and 2nd position didn't quite fill, cause I make an extra 100pips for only risking 20.

No brainer!!

I can show you them in my statements to
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #1,262
  • Apr 28, 2012 7:35pm Apr 28, 2012 7:35pm
Quoting 60minuteman
Not crazy at all... rabid maybe?

fook knows about those sort of targets... 1695 next possible stopper...

Your better off long term with oil, we have already hit the top of the supply curve or are very close to.

In 10years time the only people who can afford to drive petrol / diesel cars will be the ones that invested heavily in oil already.
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #1,263
  • Apr 28, 2012 7:38pm Apr 28, 2012 7:38pm
Quoting Turveyd

I just have to stop trying to win every trade and moving SL's, which is what I'm currently working toways, ofcourse this week no losers to work on that, typically! lose damn it!!
'Just'! Hells bells, that's not 'just' an issue, it's the whole basis of trading for crissakes! You shouldn't need to have to try, it's the very essence of the whole thing, geez.


Quoting Turveyd

dude, it's an extreme example I do maybe once per year
Once a year, once every 10 years, no difference! You're making money and giving it all back, don't you see that?


Quoting Turveyd

tis a HOBBY!!!
Oh right, good excuse to yourself, it's not really a serious effort, when you come to earn an income from it then you'll get serious about it.......yeah, ok then.
  • #1,264
  • Apr 28, 2012 7:41pm Apr 28, 2012 7:41pm
Quoting pipmutt
'Just'! Hells bells, that's not 'just' an issue, it's the whole basis of trading for crissakes! You shouldn't need to have to try, it's the very essence of the whole thing, geez.




Once a year, once every 10 years, no difference! You're making money and giving it all back, don't you see that?




Oh right, good excuse, it's not really a serious effort, you don't really hope to earn an income from it.......yeah, ok then.

On the basis I make money in the first place, means I'm already better than 99% of the people on here, including you.

Work is shite, country is in a recession I have a count down till zero work so sadly it's taking it seriously time and taking a wage outta it.

More work might come in, but prefer to plan on the negative side.
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #1,265
  • Apr 28, 2012 7:42pm Apr 28, 2012 7:42pm
Quoting 60minuteman

Not crazy at all... rabid maybe?
Positively foaming at the mouth!

Ah fuck it, it's only my kids inheritance, I gave 'em an education didn't I!
  • #1,266
  • Apr 28, 2012 7:43pm Apr 28, 2012 7:43pm
Quoting pipmutt
'Just'! Hells bells, that's not 'just' an issue, it's the whole basis of trading for crissakes! You shouldn't need to have to try, it's the very essence of the whole thing, geez.




Once a year, once every 10 years, no difference! You're making money and giving it all back, don't you see that?




Oh right, good excuse to yourself, it's not really a serious effort, when you come to earn an income from it then you'll get serious about it.......yeah, ok then.

This is the issues with a forum, if you be honest and share anything then it'll be used as a way to put you down in order to big themselves up, got to hate forums and the human race.

Notice you don't share your trading experience / level there pips, I bet cause it's bad!!
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #1,267
  • Edited 8:00pm Apr 28, 2012 7:49pm | Edited 8:00pm
Quoting Turveyd

On the basis I make money in the first place, means I'm already better than 99% of the people on here, including you.
Who are you trying to convince, me or you?

Any fool can buy in a falling market, and buy, and then buy more, and price will more than likely come back and give them a profit.....they'll probably even get away with it for a while. The inevitable does eventually happen though and they give it all back, you're testimony to that fact! But sure, you're better than the 99% for a while at least, but I think you'll find that's called a bubble!

It's a bit like that guy who said it was ok to jump off a skyscraper, half way down he could be heard saying 'so far - so good'!


Quoting Turveyd

Notice you don't share your trading experience / level there pips
Why would I want to? Either you understand what I'm saying and benefit from it or you don't, makes absolutely no difference to me or my bottom line!


Quoting Turveyd

I bet cause it's bad!!
Well I guess you'll never know will you!
  • #1,268
  • Apr 28, 2012 7:54pm Apr 28, 2012 7:54pm
Quoting pipmutt
Who are you trying to convince, me or you?

Anyone can buy in a falling market, and buy, and then buy more, and price will more than likely come back and give them a profit.....they'll get away with it for a while. The inevitable does eventually happen though and they give it all back. But sure, you're better than the 99% for a while at least, but I think you'll find that's called a bubble!

WTF are you going on about, buying more and more is not part of my method never has been / will be cause thats going to produce a good win rate, then a very bad 1 time loser.

Read above and try to understand, I have a max 40 or 60 sL ( sometimes 20 ), and I take a 2nd and maybe 3rd position ( with the 60 ) every -20, with the same SL price as the first so less risk, more upside less downside cost it's a no brainer.

consider getting in at -20 for a 2nd position, merely taking advantage of volititity
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #1,269
  • Apr 28, 2012 7:58pm Apr 28, 2012 7:58pm
Pipmutt, there is no point trying to reason with you, your going on ignore your a brain dead A HOLE, you have no idea of trading and just like to run people down,.


F OFF!!
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #1,270
  • Apr 28, 2012 8:12pm Apr 28, 2012 8:12pm
Last time was 2years ago, you just keep going and going and going and going don't you, reason being your a twat, your a loser trader always will be, your on ignore go away.
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #1,271
  • Edited 8:36pm Apr 28, 2012 8:19pm | Edited 8:36pm
Quoting Turveyd

not cashing in unfortunately, blowing it $100 to $400 in say 2months and back to $100 area inside of a few hours, when the market just won't change direction and you dig in and keep getting more.

It's pretty much my last issue to solve.
Quoting Turveyd
WTF are you going on about.......thats going to produce a good win rate, then a very bad 1 time loser.
Well that's what you're doing isn't it, 80% win rate making 300% then losing 75% of your account, you're back to where you started! You've already told us you've done that 9 times!


Quoting Turveyd

your a brain dead A HOLE

F OFF!!
Hmmm, nice. What was that you were saying about personal insults and attacks?

Hey listen, sorry I obviously hit a nerve and burst your bubble.......no you're a great trader, an ace, you're going to be rich and famous and better than everyone on FF! There, feel better now?


Quoting Turveyd

your a twat, your a loser trader always will be, your on ignore go away.
Yep that's the ticket, bury your head in the sand and ignore the patently obvious, that ought to do it!
  • #1,272
  • Apr 28, 2012 10:22pm Apr 28, 2012 10:22pm
Quoting bluesteele
Swinger someone say Swinger....Yeah baby ! Blue loves all sorts of swingin' !

LOL


Gold .I love gold.

Especially that hot little goldylox chick.

Seriously gold is a staple in my trading diet.

Like everything about it.

Turved Spzd is right. Averaging down does not work you should work on your entries. Isnt that obvious?
averaging down really DOES NOT WORK, tried it, tested it, even built a random model.

the market is mostly random 60% of the time (empirical study by an ivy league the exact reference escapes me)

that is why we need to treat the risk management as such, the edge comes from observations of what works then to keep net gains you have to build positive mathematical expectation.

and the SL has to take into account position size and volatility.

example on the eur/usd average daily volatility is 0.64% and average variance is .0004% this translates to about 77-150 pip average true range with 122 as average (77 being the 1st quartile and 150 being the 3rd quartile)

so build a model that takes your stop away from volatility and your t/p within volatility with with r:r > 1:1 to create positive expectation.

averaging down has shown to create negative expectation.
if you are making 50 pips on average and your losses average 100pips due to the increased risk exposure by averaging down then you are doomed.

I admit i do not have the greatest of risk management strategies, as i have random positive equity curve and you can see my posts on the matter and my inquiries on how to solve this.

but averaging down only creates bigger average losers viz a viz average winners where you will have one loss wipe out several winners.

this is easily proven by worse case scenario draw down with your average losers to best case scenario win rate with your average winners.
AVT INVENIAM VIAM AVT FACIAM
  • #1,273
  • Apr 29, 2012 2:04am Apr 29, 2012 2:04am
turveyed getting a little hot and bothered there brother mutt? LOL

Reality bites ! WOOF !

I know old Nubs was very fond of Turvayd..

I wonder if the aliens got nubs and johnny?
Markets are Mirrors,,Mastery of craft is mastery of self
  • #1,274
  • Apr 29, 2012 3:35am Apr 29, 2012 3:35am
Quoting bluesteele

turveyed getting a little hot and bothered there brother mutt? LOL
LOL yep, I think I can safely say I'm off his Xmas card list!


Quoting bluesteele

Reality bites ! WOOF !
It's the best example of messenger shooting I've seen in a while!


Quoting bluesteele

I know old Nubs was very fond of Turvayd..

I wonder if the aliens got nubs and johnny?
lol, maybe they are the aliens, been recalled to their mothership!
  • #1,275
  • Apr 29, 2012 3:40am Apr 29, 2012 3:40am
Quoting the redlion

averaging down really DOES NOT WORK, tried it, tested it, even built a random model.
I think a lot of us have tried it in one form or another, especially at the beginning when we were novices. Most of us learned pretty quickly it simply wasn't logical or viable and we moved on, while it seems others continue to wallow in the psychological comfort of making profitable trades and convince themselves that the only issue they really need to address is the one or two inevitable big losers which occasionally but regularly take back all the gains and even destroy their account.

I guess in order to keep a dream alive some people need to ignore reality, it's just too painful to accept sometimes.
  • #1,276
  • Apr 29, 2012 3:55am Apr 29, 2012 3:55am
Quoting bluesteele
turveyed getting a little hot and bothered there brother mutt? LOL

Reality bites ! WOOF !

I know old Nubs was very fond of Turvayd..

I wonder if the aliens got nubs and johnny?
Youll excuse me not taking bs advice from people who will never be profiable ever!


Nubs is a troll just like pipmutt.


The internet needs a troll teleportation machine which beams you straight to them so you can kick the crap outta them, only way to rid the the world of them!

Averaging down works great you merely dont know how to do it sensibly!
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #1,277
  • Edited 7:13am Apr 29, 2012 7:01am | Edited 7:13am
Quoting the redlion
averaging down really DOES NOT WORK, tried it, tested it, even built a random model.

the market is mostly random 60% of the time (empirical study by an ivy league the exact reference escapes me)

that is why we need to treat the risk management as such, the edge comes from observations of what works then to keep net gains you have to build positive mathematical expectation.

and the SL has to take into account position size and volatility.

example on the eur/usd average daily volatility is 0.64% and average variance is .0004% this translates to...

No averaging down, didn't work when you where a newbie cause you was not doing it right to put it simply.

So yes we both accept much randomness in the market so.....

So example :-

You go Long GU 1.5030 SL 1.4990

Okay allowing for the randomness, you can't pick a exact entry, simply not possible right ??

So market retraces back to 1.5005 say then reverses and runs to 1.5100.

So no averaging down, you've risked 40pips you've made 60pips nice. R:R 1.5:1.

If SL got hit, you'd lose 40 ofcourse.

So with averaging down, get a 2nd position at 1.5010 SL still 1.4990.

Market turns at 1.5005 again runs to 1.5100

profits are then +70 1st position and +90 2nd position = 160pips.

Or it drops and hits the SL's at 1.4990 then you lose -40 & -20 = -60

Your averaging down R:R is 2.666:1 for a 50% increase in risk.


What most people do is put a SL at -20 then get knocked out by pure randomness, yes the loss is lower, but the spread cost % is higher and the win rate drops nastily.

If you keep going with the averaging down with no exit strategy then ofcourse it's going to empty your account, standard newbie stuff.

I'll add, it works for me cause I have a pretty accurate trend based method, I'm going long on a pull back in a uptrend in short, as long as the uptrend is valid which getting to my SL invalidates the trend but odds are the trend will continue and it'll get to profit, so no reason not to take advantage of the better prices.

Turned me from being slightly profitable, to highly profitable, quite a few trades barely make it back to the first position, but thats fine as I still make a profit on the 2nd position.

My lot sizes vary, depending on the setup and my SL requirement, $0.1 for 60SL, $0.2 for 40sL, $0.6 for 20SL which all works out at the same cost being $12.

Adding money monday ish and upping that to $0.2 for 60, 0.4 for 40 and 1.2 for 20 ( I rarely use 20 )
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #1,278
  • Apr 29, 2012 7:07am Apr 29, 2012 7:07am
Quoting Turveyd
No averaging down, didn't work when you where a newbie cause you was not doing it right to put it simply.

So yes we both accept much randomness in the market so.....

So example :-

You go Long GU 1.5030 SL 1.4990

Okay allowing for the randomness, you can't pick a exact entry, simply not possible right ??

So market retraces back to 1.5005 say then reverses and runs to 1.5100.

So no averaging down, you've risked 40pips you've made 60pips nice. R:R 1.5:1.

If SL got hit, you'd lose 40 ofcourse.

So with averaging down,...
so how do you deal with exponential risk exposure with averaging down?
AVT INVENIAM VIAM AVT FACIAM
  • #1,279
  • Apr 29, 2012 7:10am Apr 29, 2012 7:10am
Quoting the redlion
so how do you deal with exponential risk exposure with averaging down?

If you read above, that will become 100% clear.

i've just added some bits to.
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #1,280
  • Apr 29, 2012 7:31am Apr 29, 2012 7:31am
I just used one of your old posts on the thread that I post on most of the time. Thanks for your thoughts on this subject that are similar to my own thoughts.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...59#post5619359
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