My view on the markets and TA's

I roignially started a thread called "Some of my forecasts". The moderators moved the thread over to "Journal Discussions". This thread has the same intent as "Some of my forecasts". I just decided to dress it up with a different title, and then maybe the moderators will leave it alone.

I will post my views on the markets. 95% of all my trades are the 11 major forex pairs, and the other 5% are the minor forex pairs. I'm here to share my views on the markets, display my methodology, which is 100% TA fully ensconced. JMO, but I never consider FA's. My goal is share intelligent conversation of the markets in like minds. OTOH, if you are a newbie, I encourage you to make this thread your home. I'm open to all questions and comments. In this thread, no questions are dumb questions. You should feel good about asking questions without much of the name calling that I see in this forum.

I also ask all visitors of the thread to please keep the language clean. I don't appreciate swearing, dirty jokes off-colored information, your stories of your life at the bar, or whatever. I just want to keep all conversations wholesome.

Lastly, I don't claim to have all my ducks in the water, but there is some order to the things I do. I adhere as closely as possible to the following schedule:

1. Weekly Forecast: This is something that will be posted more or less at midnight GMT on Saturday night. It is just that. It's my forecasts of the 11 major pairs for that week.
2. Midweek Review/ Forecast: This is a review that is posted around midnight GMT Tuesday night. It reviews how the forecast is doing up to that point in the week, then gives the forecast for the rest of the week, held in strict accordance with the Weekly Forecast.
3. Weekly Review: Hopefully, sometime before Saturday morning GMT my WR will be posted. It reviews how the Weekly Forecast did for the previous week. To me, this is very important. It lets people know I do not just post some numbers where the market is headed, then I run away and hide somewhere. My WR holds me accountable and keeps my feet to the fire.
4. Weekly S&R's: They will be posted shortly after the Weekly Review. They come from my proprietary formula. Get ready to be blown away. I devised the formula in 2007. I hardly met anyone who is not impressed with them.
5. Your requests: After my personal business is all completed, then name the market, and I'll post my view on it, as long as I can apply my methodology to it.

Other than that, I'm open to discussing whatever when it comes to technical indicators, methodologies, etc.
One more simple request. One more simple request. If you disagree with me, don't just say something like, "Your ichimoku cloud stinks." If you don't think it works, then back it up. Bring your proof. I'm not a very smart person, except I have an excellent mathematical ability, and I'm excellent in reading and discerning charts. So, like I said, if you disagree with something I say, it's fine. I'm open to discussion. I also do not have such a big ego that someone can't teach me a new trick or 2.

BTW, the EUR/CHF hasn ot been featured of late in my WF's. I can only get so excited about a pair that moves 40 pips per week. Once it speeds things up, then it will be featured again.

Okay, the Weekly Review is coming. You can head over to my other thread to verify the Weekly Forecast from last week, even though it is self-contained in the WR.

EUR/USD: There is no need for the MS1 at 1.3233 to be hit, but it still could. Regardless, the pair is getting ready to correct the strong UP that ended last week, as it heads to 1.3149. If that level is broken, then it prepares for a strong move that could take it to 1.3084, which is just below the 4-hour cloud
MT, the move north is expected to challenge the weekly kijun at 1.3435. Only a break under 1.2994 changes this view.

The week started off with the move to the dip at 1.3103, so it missed the low projection by 19pips. From there, the pair took off to the peak at 1.3269.

USD/JPY: This pair should be headed to the WS1/ 4-hour kijun combo at 81.04 to start the week. That should become a decision point. Most likely that area will be broken, as this week should mark the pair’s reversal.

We did make it under the 81.04 level as the dip was 80.73.

GBP/USD: Key R area is 1.6150. That will contain for awhile, as last week's strong move will be corrected. Watch for the correction take the pair to the WR1 at 1.6024. That will be a deciding point. A break of that point and there will make for a strong move to 1.5932, the WS2. Unless we have a complete trend change, the WS2 will hold and then see a strong move north. If 1.5932 contains, then we could see a move to the bottom of the monthly cloud at 1.6432.

The move south was contained well above the WR1 as the dip was 1.6073. Eventually, the 1.6150 level was comfortable taken out then we had the strong move to the peak at 1.6279.

USD/CHF: The ideal scenario is to see this move continue south to the cluster S event at .9037, which includes my WS1, and then there will be plenty of room for a recovery, as we see the WR2 hit at .9175.

This was a nice week for the pair as the peak was .9171, 4 pips under the WR2, then the reversal took the pair to the dip at .9050.

AUD/USD: After failing to break key level at 1.0304, with no attempt to the next main support area at 1.0224, the pair made a sharp break north. Starting next week, watch for a slight correction to the bottom of the 4-hour cloud at 1.0338, and even allowing for a spike to the WS1 at 1.0324. After the correction is complete, there should be a move to the WR2 at 1.0470 that will also open it up for a move even higher in following weeks.

The dip was 1.0247, and then a strong reversal took the pair to the peak at 1.0473.

USD/CAD: With this pair getting scared out of the daily cloud last week, the move south should continue. Any recovery should be contained at the 4-hour kijun at .9947, and then we see the move to the WS2 at .9829.

The pair managed to break the 4-hour kijun, as it rose to .9977, then there was a strong reversal to the dip at .9799.

NZD/USD: This pair got plundered at the end of the week and is still seeking to regain some of the losses. Look for the recovery to continue to no higher than the WR1 at .8216. MY, it appears the pair is headed to .7979, but this week should be limited to the WS2 at .8106.

WE had a slight move on the other side of the WS2, as the dip was .8087. Afterward, we had a strong move to the peak at .8231.

EUR/GBP: The suspense is over. This pair finally made it to the bottom of the monthly cloud at .8167. Needless to say, the pair is at a very critical point. It is the proverbial decision point. One thing looks certain, and that is this pair seems to be nearing the point of a longer term reversal. For this week, any move south should be limited to the WS1 at .8164. The move north could see the WR2 at .8252, possibly higher.

.8220 was all that was needed to contain the trip north, then a strong reversal took the pair to the dip at .8133.

EUR/JPY: A very strong cluster event to the south awaits at 107.23. Given the fact the WS1 is 106.74, and we had a strong move against the trend last week, then the cluster event could be broken. If the cluster S is broken, then contains the move back north, then the entire correction is over. If the area contains, then we can put 108.81 on the radar for the week.

The strong cluster S was broken and we moved to the dip at 106.10. The peak was 107.79.

GBP/JPY: A very strong cluster event to the south awaits at 130.66. Given the fact the WS1 is 130.04, and we had a strong move against the trend last week, then the cluster event could be broken. If the cluster S is broken, then contains the move back north, then the entire correction is over. If the area contains, then we can put 132.55 on the radar for the week.

The WS1 was not hit, but the pair was in a tight range for the week as the peak and dip were 131.80—130.18, respectively.

R3r2r1s1s2s3
eur/usd1.34121.33361.32901.31981.31521.3076
usd/jpy81.6781.0380.6579.8779.4978.85
gbp/usd1.64651.63721.63151.62031.61461.6053
usd/chf0.91860.91320.90990.90330.90000.8946
eur/chf1.20741.20651.20601.20491.20431.2034
aud/usd1.07001.05951.05321.04061.03431.0238
usd/cad0.99810.99000.98520.97540.97060.9625
nzd/usd0.83670.83010.82610.81810.81410.8075
eur/gbp0.82290.81900.81660.81180.80940.8055
eur/jpy107.96107.22106.77105.87105.42104.68
gbp/jpy132.13131.40130.95130.07129.62128.89

Getting it done early this week. The Weekly Forecast is coming up shortly.

EUR/USD: This pair should being the week in a slight correction mode, as the 4-hour tenken at 1.3212 seems a viable target to the downside, while the ws1 at 1.3198 should contain. After the correction is completed, then the UP should continue. The minimum MT upside objective is 1.3317. With the WS1 acting as containment, then it is the WR2 that should be hit for the week, which is 1.3336. From there, we’ll know if the MT reversal has begun.

USD/JPY: Downside containment this week will be the weekly kijun at 79.87, which coincides nicely with my WS1 at 79.87. There is plenty of room on the lower TF’s for an immediate move north to start the week, even though there is a possibility the pair could head straight south to the downside objective first. The move north will take the pair to the WR2 at 81.03, which coincides perfectly with the bottom of the 4-hour cloud. That area need to contain as the TL drawn from the daily is peering straight on top.

GBP/USD: A deeper correction should be in store than its cousin the EUR/USD. The favored scenario is that the WS1 at 1.6203 does not hold, and then we have a more rapid drop to the WS2 at 1.6146. The minimum MT upside objective is 1.6347. The WR1 is 1.6317and the WR2 is 1.6372. It is doubtful the latter will be hit, so the circa sub-area should contain, then maybe we get a reversal in the MT trend. We need a strong reversal is the WS2 is hit, or we get a premature reversal in the MT trend.

USD/CHF: Similar to the USD/JPY, this pair could still keep going in the downtrend to start the week until the minimum objective for the week is hit at the WS2 at .9000. From that point, it should be a strong reversal. It’s foreseeable the WR2 at .9132 could be hit.

AUD/USD: Similar to cable, this pair should be starting off the week with a move south with some teeth in it. The WS2 at 1.0341 has a good shot at being hit. Once the pair is ready to head back north, then the WR1 at 1.0532 is on the radar. It should also be noted that the bottom of the daily cloud at 1.0541 is going to be very strong R.

USD/CAD: Containment to the upside will be anywhere from the WR1 to the WR2, .9852--.9900, respectively. Downside containment should be the WS2 at .9707. There is plenty of room to move north to start the week. How far it heads either way to start the week will have a strong bearing on where it will end up throughout the rest of the week.

NZD/USD: There’s no better way to put it, than the fact this pair looks ugly this week. It’s clear a move south will begin the week. The pair met up with some strong cluster R in the .8217 region and responded accordingly in the last 2 hours of the week. There are many variable that could evolve for this pair. Keep your eye on the price action once this pairs lands on top of the 4-hour kijun at .8161. Nothing is confirmed, but if that level does not hold, this pair could be in for a plunge all week long. Friday’s strong move could be just a way of stealing the bears’ money. Nevertheless, the obviation is that. Other than that, keep your distance from it.

EUR/GBP: Monday is the end of the month. WE need a close on Monday above .8167 or there could be a challenge to .8067. If the latter contains, then we have to right the break of the monthly cloud off as a head fake. To the north, we need a break of the recent leveling of the daily tenken at .8217 in order to have a confirmation of the upside. It’s doubtful that will happen this week, considering the WR2 is .8190.

EUR/JPY: The TK combo at 106.80—106.89, respectively, is trapped in the 4-hour cloud and should be strong containment for the week. Add to that my WR1 at 106.77, and that makes it all a very formidable area. The WS2 at 105.42 appears on the radar.

GBP/JPY: The reversal to the MT DOWN may have begun last week. As long as the 4-hout TK at 130.96—130.99 holds, then it confirms. That being the case then we head to the bottom of the cloud at 129.44.

I wanted to share these charts of the GBP/USD just to show what I am looking at, which is my method I use to trade with.
My method is indicator enriched. Do indicators lag? Yes they do. It is up to the trader to know how to use them and compensate for them. Anytime the forecast is wrong, it is not the indicator that is wrong, but it is the trader that is wrong.
I use:
1. The ichimoku cloud; the cornerstone of my methodology.
2. My proprietary set of S&R's; My pride-n-joy that has come from my personal formula.
3. Standard deviation channel
4. Stochastics.
5. I also use price action and trendlines.

I'm always open to ways to improve my methodology. The stochastics is the only staple in it, since I began in 2004.
I was introduced to the ichimoku cloud in 2007 by someone who used it as a standalone, and very successful.
I came up with my S&R's with an idea from someone I was talking to. Ironically, the guy I was talking too never did learn to trade.
It has only been in the last 18 months that I started using TL's and price action.

The following is my forecast from the Weekly Forecast for cable:
GBP/USD: A deeper correction should be in store than its cousin the EUR/USD. The favored scenario is that the WS1 at 1.6203 does not hold, and then we have a more rapid drop to the WS2 at 1.6146. The minimum MT upside objective is 1.6347. The WR1 is 1.6317and the WR2 is 1.6372. It is doubtful the latter will be hit, so the circa sub-area should contain, then maybe we get a reversal in the MT trend. We need a strong reversal is the WS2 is hit, or we get a premature reversal in the MT trend.

The hourly and daily charts give a good view of why I have that view.
The hourly shows the candle has drifted quite a ways over the top of the cloud, and the daily is even more obviated along these lines. This means in terms of ichimoku, the laws of equilibrium have been broken. There will be a natural gravitational pull back to the cloud. The stochastics are also OB. An oscillator is quite unreliable, but is excellent as a confluence.
The candle has also hit the top of of the SD channel. There is less than 5% chance the channel line would ever be hit. It's an extreme reading. There is also a very strong supply zone beginning around 1.6347.
So what we have is a correction to start the week, then a move north to a possible end of the MT uptrend. If the move starts the week straight to 1.6347, it would add up to an extremely powerful reversal.


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Funny, first you talk about clean language, and then you use that kind of an expression (marked in bold).

nice forecast 4x

Custos, I'm sorry! That was a typo! Honest!. I meant "Ducks". I never use that language.
Thanks so much for bringing it to my attention.

Thanks, Rexfo. By next week at this time, we'll know how good it really is or is not.
My Weekly Forecast is usually very good. Feel free to add comments or ask questions.
LOL, also feel free to point out any typos that may come up.

well the au is now at 1.0327 let see if we go back up

R