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  • #981
  • Apr 25, 2012 6:17am Apr 25, 2012 6:17am
My main point was the high relevance to S1 and R1 in our (forex) industry. Building a method based around these crucial levels is not too bad a shout IMHO. Like I say not for me but I've seen a lot worse.

Quoting Turveyd
The main issue is, if you bought at S1 then you'd likely be going long in a downward trend, cause it must been going down to get there, if the longer trend is up then with enough breathing space and buying more ( might not turn enough to be worth it from 1st position ) you've got good odds that it will turn back up.

Double bottom on a S/R will likely create a small bounce, to sucker people in you can profit from that if your quick, but triple bottoms inspire more confidence sucker many more people in which regret wussing the double bottom,...
"The meek shall inherit the earth.." Yeah right, good luck with that shit..
  • #982
  • Apr 25, 2012 6:34am Apr 25, 2012 6:34am
Quoting LazyPawn
And you still claim that trading is easy and teach others how to do it?
Does that mean that the content that he teaches is useless? That's like a renter saying it's good to save for a deposit on a house and one day own it and you saying that's nonsense because you're renting.

[/quote]Great posts, thanks. It would be interesting to start your own thread and give us more insight into how these things are done, you're obviously knowledgeable on the topic.[/quote]
You talk down someone else for tweaking a system and then give props to someone that also would tweak a system but says so is a very smart way: "A Trading System is very well defined. It is intelligent and it must have the capability of learning from its past performance. ...Dynamic Systems Component Integration..." geez.

[/quote]I haven't met those ice-cream sellers yet.[/quote] Have you looked for them? For traders living off profits that came from meager or average backgrounds? Without being told you'd have to look to find them.

[/quote]You can find a gypsy who cannot read or write but plays some musical instrument almost to perfection. But he's not going to be a Mozart.[/quote]
But they may be able to still make a decent and maybe comfortable living off it.

[/quote]Really? 5-10% a day? Today? And tomorrow as well? And the day after tomorrow again? And no -10% days in-between? Let's put that into perspective, shall we? If you start with $1000 and make 10% each day it takes 146 days to reach 1 billion. In 1 year you would own the entire planet. It's true that with 5%/day you need almost a year to make your first billion. That sucks ... Who would waste an entire year of their life to make only 1 billion? [/quote]
I remember nubcake wrote a good post addressing this, an analogy he used was something like - if a motorcycle goes 0-60mph in 5sec, imagine how fast he'll be going in a minute'. Some traders trade until they reach goals, liquidity and execution problems, or until they reach lifestyle goals, have new views on risk, who knows ask them! I understand some peoples disbelief of any consistent profit over 0.0000000001% a day, but that doesn't imply every day is green, a farmer in Egypt would say I don't own an umbrella because it's always sunny, but still would have rainy days here and there...

[/quote]Yeah, sure. Very easy. The reason so many lose money is because they didn't figure that out. Buy low, sell high, that's the part they were missing. Of course chess is also very easy, you just have to attack a king when it has nowhere to go to. And neurosurgery - piece of cake - you just cut out the brain tumor. Formula 1? Couldn't be easier, just drive faster than the other guy. [/quote]
I was thinking of saying that first line to iDouble, when he speaks of researching indicators, gathering an edge, and setting up MM, ahhh! That simple!? Wow, gotta tell every member on ff that they gotta follow 3 steps, gosh golly so easy. Anything is as simple or as complicated as one would like it. Yeah, and James16, Custos, Kostas, Crucialpoint, these ff members are just wasting their time and luck, because if their systems worked then suuuuurely they should own their own island now right??? Your expectations of what profitable traders are and do are astronomical. It reminds of another member who at first thought the Turtle Traders, Dennis and Eckhart were full of crap and just on a lucky streak of sorts...I'm sure many traders here wouldn't mind being on just a 'lucky streak' if they ended up at the end with hundreds of millions of dollars! Oh and lots of the turtles are running their own funds now, still smashing the s&p500.
  • #983
  • Apr 25, 2012 6:35am Apr 25, 2012 6:35am
hahaha gee didn't I screw up the 'quote post' thing!
  • #984
  • Apr 25, 2012 6:50am Apr 25, 2012 6:50am
Quoting Turveyd
S/R isn't strong enough, the odds on a S/R point holding simply aren't enough the majority of the time, your better off viewing them as large 20 - 30 pips area's, it dips into a S for instance, start accumulating and SL under the S area, if you do it with 1 pip S/R lines, it'll dip under and nickel and dime you for no reason.

Daily Pivots, also have no statistical value, used as a S/R!
the point for me is not to just buy or sell at s/r,thats just the focus point,

the time has a major concideration when price meets one of these levels,

eg,london open ,often as many know here will bring in longs whilst it flushes out the shorts only to then fall 150 pips throughout the day,they become more obvious to the eye as one spends more time studying them.we also need to concider ,
the general money flow and if its in harmony.

momentum helps to get are position into a b/e quickly

volitility

lots of components required

i have to concentrsate on 2 markets only and i have found eventually you feel its heartbeat

its a combination of these things that contribute to a decision on taking a trade or not.ofcoarse on occasion we get given text book trades to the pip.
reading the market is the overall key then it becomes simpler.
  • #985
  • Apr 25, 2012 7:16am Apr 25, 2012 7:16am
Quoting jeanlouie
It reminds of another member who at first thought the Turtle Traders, Dennis and Eckhart were full of crap and just on a lucky streak of sorts...
As their subsequent performance shows, they where on a lucky streak

Thats the point that Naseem Talab makes in his book, fooled by randomness. There are times when particular methods suit particular market conditions, and as a trader, if you've developed the skills to recognise and profit from that, there's no reason why you shouldnt capitalise on that.
  • #986
  • Apr 25, 2012 7:20am Apr 25, 2012 7:20am
Quoting jeanlouie
Does that mean that the content that he teaches is useless?
Yes. You can have a 60 year old who once was a good athlete and he could give you some tips on how to improve your skills. He cannot run or jump today because he's too old, but he still knows what it takes to get there. Trading is a completely different story. If your systems/rules/whatever work you should be the first one able to prove it. If you can't do it why would I trust you? Things are even more complex in trading than in other human endeavors because there is no general consensus on what works. All surgeons agree that they must wash their hands before getting into the operating room. They know exactly why too. But trading is different. You have people arguing passionately about using SL vs. not using it. Averaging down vs. never do that kind of thing. Let your profits run vs. take partial profits early. Many small wins vs. homeruns. Risk 0.2% vs. risk 5% per trade. Scale in vs. scale out vs. neither. Trade often vs. trade only the top setups. Fundamentals vs. technicals. Listen to news vs. ignore them. Hedge vs. don't hedge. Short term vs. long term. Go against the last move because the market is ranging 70% of the time vs. go with the move because it could be the next huge trend. And so on, I could give you a very long list. Unlike the surgeon who knows about the antiseptics and the germs, in trading you have no such proof. The market is changing and all you get (if you get it) is some statistical edge that needs many trades to manifest itself. And even then you have no guarantee that your edge is real or that it will work next year. So ... why would I trust anyone's methods unless they give me a very solid reason to do so? And by that I mean many years of successful trading in all markets conditions. Show me the logs, show me the money, and I believe you.

Quote
You talk down someone else for tweaking a system and then give props to someone that also would tweak a system but says so is a very smart way:

I never talked anyone down for tweaking a system. Where did you see such a thing? All I'm saying is that trading is tough. The mere fact that you constantly have to tweak those systems proves it, along with many other things. The guy whose post you didn't like simply talked about the way a system is built by pros, how complex the steps are. I asked him to provide more details if he so wishes.

Quote
But they may be able to still make a decent and maybe comfortable living off it.

Yes. But when you play an instrument or have any other day job there is no such thing as compounding. A trader who is constantly profitable would increase his wealth in exponential fashion. Anyone who can make 1% a day, day in day out, is bound to become incredibly rich. Do the math and you will see.

Quote
I remember nubcake wrote a good post addressing this, an analogy he used was something like - if a motorcycle goes 0-60mph in 5sec, imagine how fast he'll be going in a minute'. Some traders trade until they reach goals, liquidity and execution problems, or until they reach lifestyle goals, have new views on risk, who knows ask them!

I'm sorry, the analogy doesn't hold, and I think you see why yourself. The level where you reach liquidity limits is very high. Most people making the extraordinary claims around here have 3-4 figure accounts. Nowhere close to what you imply. And they had the same kind of account 7 years ago. Don't you see a problem with that?

I am not saying that there are no successful traders. Of course there are. People who start with a few bucks and end up trading hundreds of millions. Such people exist. But very very few. A very small proportion of the traders. And it's the same in any kind of activity that requires great skill. Tens of millions play chess, only a few in the world have what it takes to reach super-grandmaster level (that would be the equivalent of people you read about in books like Market Wizards).

Quote
Yeah, and James16, Custos, Kostas, Crucialpoint, these ff members are just wasting their time and luck, because if their systems worked then suuuuurely they should own their own island now right???

Yep. Exactly. But they can always prove me wrong. For some reason though they constantly refuse to show proof of that. They are very shy. It's much easier to make a fortune teaching others, like James16. Look, this is a pinbar, you see? Now give me your 100 bucks.

Do you see Messi charging $100/hour teaching some kids how to score goals? Do you see Soros or Buffet writing on forums and asking for a few bucks? Do you see anyone in any kind of field who can really make huge returns teaching others how to do it for 0.001% of what they get by simply doing it themselves? Nope. But there is no limit to how gullible some people can be.
  • #987
  • Apr 25, 2012 7:36am Apr 25, 2012 7:36am
Quoting LazyPawn

I'm sorry, the analogy doesn't hold, and I think you see why yourself. The level where you reach liquidity limits is very high. Most people making the extraordinary claims around here have 3-4 figure accounts. Nowhere close to what you imply. And they had the same kind of account 7 years ago. Don't you see a problem with that?

It's a good 1, even if the bike could go to a 1Mil mph you'd likely stop @200mph area and think that's fast enough, same trading you'll get to a point ( hopefully ) where you'd need to be flipping $100 per pip and watching your account move by that amount would be damn scarey.

Most of the guru's are still on Demo if you push them to telling you, they've lost there real money and trying again.

Most people fail, everything is setup to teach people how to fail so the big boys can take your money.

You get some kid in a bubble, he can trade, see charts but no access to any forums or how to trade guides ever and I'd bet he'd stick a much better chance of beating it than the people taught how H4 is the direction and candlestick patterns means X and pivot points and all the other trash.
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #988
  • Apr 25, 2012 7:43am Apr 25, 2012 7:43am
Didn't the James16 and most of that crew get done for fraud for millions ??


Vegas Tunnel guy made millions of his method, no hang on frauded people out of millions but got caught LOL

They aren't even good scammers, they get busted all the time.
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #989
  • Apr 25, 2012 7:54am Apr 25, 2012 7:54am
Quoting 60minuteman
Does anyone ever get the feeling they're reading posts from computer programmers. Then when you meet a truly successful trader (someone who is consistent) they used to sell ice-creams, or drive taxi's ????
Hehe yep, but one of the things I like about this site is that clash of very different personalities.

I fall somewhere in between the 'systems' guys and the 'naked chart' guys. Trading, to me, is part art and part science, and is really quite unique in that respect(the closest thing that comes to mind is a professional poker player).
  • #990
  • Apr 25, 2012 7:57am Apr 25, 2012 7:57am
Quoting Turveyd
Didn't the James16 and most of that crew get done for fraud for millions ??


Vegas Tunnel guy made millions of his method, no hang on frauded people out of millions but got caught LOL

They aren't even good scammers, they get busted all the time.
J16 fraud?! Woah, if that's true I certainly didn't know, I only mentioned him because I've seen so many people mention him and the huge thread of info on charting and pa is pretty indepth, maybe should have replaced him with Philip Nel in the commercial section with his huge 4hr macd thread.
  • #991
  • Apr 25, 2012 8:01am Apr 25, 2012 8:01am
Quoting iDouble
to search for repeating patterns.
I think I've spotted one.
  • #992
  • Apr 25, 2012 8:05am Apr 25, 2012 8:05am
Quoting Razzle
As their subsequent performance shows, they where on a lucky streak

Thats the point that Naseem Talab makes in his book, fooled by randomness. There are times when particular methods suit particular market conditions, and as a trader, if you've developed the skills to recognise and profit from that, there's no reason why you shouldnt capitalise on that.
Firstly, that person I mentioned is now a convert to trend following and completely changed his position on the Turtles.

Secondly, I regret using that l...s... term, because the way it is used can be applied to any profitable system, "it's profitable? hey it's just a l...s...","you're making profits? hey it's just a l...s...","Steve Ickow had only 10 losing days in the year? hey it's just a l...s...". They still had a set out system and traded it, outbreak trend following on end of days charts, that's what their research showed, that's what they traded and that's how they profited. By the time markets changed, they realized, and tweaked the systems, like I said many of the Turtles now run their own funds and smash the s&p 500 index, including Eckhart himself.
  • #993
  • Apr 25, 2012 8:33am Apr 25, 2012 8:33am
[quote=LazyPawn;5607684]Trading is a completely different story. If your systems/rules/whatever work you should be the first one able to prove it. If you can't do it why would I trust you? No one is demanding your trust, the reality is that information is being shared, it's still up to you (and whomever else) to judge and analyze that information before rejecting or incorporating it into their trading approach.You have people arguing passionately about using SL vs. not using it. Averaging down vs. never do that kind of thing. Let your profits run vs. take partial profits early. Many small wins vs. homeruns. Risk 0.2% vs. risk 5% per trade. Scale in vs. scale out vs. neither. Trade often vs. trade only the top setups. Fundamentals vs. technicals. Listen to news vs. ignore them. Hedge vs. don't hedge. Short term vs. long term. Go against the last move because the market is ranging 70% of the time vs. go with the move because it could be the next huge trend. Like what I said earlier, when proponents of any information give it, it's still up to you to see if you can incorporate it into your understanding of trading. Good arguments can be made on either side, what matters is if it's useable to a trader to increase their bottom line. And so on, I could give you a very long list. I definitely agree there. Unlike the surgeon who knows about the antiseptics and the germs, in trading you have no such proof. That's what back/forward testing is for, to dismantle every approach to judge it's value, now not every trader will like the (for eg) same risk so some parcels of info or approaches will be discarded. The market is changing and all you get (if you get it) is some statistical edge that needs many trades to manifest itself. And even then you have no guarantee that your edge is real or that it will work next year. So ... why would I trust anyone's methods unless they give me a very solid reason to do so? Because hopefully you'd do your own research to judge whether it is of usable value to you. And by that I mean many years of successful trading in all markets conditions. Show me the logs, show me the money, and I believe you. What if the first 10, 100k, 1,000,000 trades of a system with a 'statistical edge' is just a probabilistic anomaly? What if all the trades since rice trading in Japan were just a fluke? Again, judge for yourself, no one is forcing anything on you.



I never talked anyone down for tweaking a system. Where did you see such a thing? You said to Turveyd post 979 "You changed your system several times blaming the market that keeps changing too", I acknowledge you didn't use the word term 'tweaking', but in this context its a synonym with changing a system to suit changing markets. All I'm saying is that trading is tough. The mere fact that you constantly have to tweak those systems proves it, along with many other things. The guy whose post you didn't like simply talked about the way a system is built by pros, how complex the steps are. Most of those 'pros' in programming end up in quantitative analysis in banks and funds designing programs to operate in HFT, there was a bbc doco Quants: Alchemists of Wall Street that was about them. When it comes to 'regular' trading, from trades lasting seconds to months, I have a hunch they use the same tactics everyone else does but tries to make it into rocket science, I mean you haven't heard of any purely quanty institution out there making a huge splash.

Yes. But when you play an instrument or have any other day job there is no such thing as compounding. A trader who is constantly profitable would increase his wealth in exponential fashion. Anyone who can make 1% a day, day in day out, is bound to become incredibly rich. Do the math and you will see. Oh I think everyone has done the compounding math in excel!



I'm sorry, the analogy doesn't hold, and I think you see why yourself. The level where you reach liquidity limits is very high. Most people making the extraordinary claims around here have 3-4 figure accounts. Nowhere close to what you imply. And they had the same kind of account 7 years ago. Don't you see a problem with that? In a previous post I mentioned The Flipper, Tim Sykes, Richard Dennis, all meager beginning but now amassed ability to move their markets respective markets; Dax, penny stocks, commodities. As for the small amount of people who make consistent profits, you'll simply have to ask them why don't they own the entire planet by now.
I am not saying that there are no successful traders. Of course there are. People who start with a few bucks and end up trading hundreds of millions. Such people exist. But very very few. A very small proportion of the traders. I agree.

Do you see Messi charging $100/hour teaching some kids how to score goals? Do you see Soros or Buffet writing on forums and asking for a few bucks? Do you see anyone in any kind of field who can really make huge returns teaching others how to do it for 0.001% of what they get by simply doing it themselves? Nope. Plenty do, Trump does, business leaders do, real estate millionaires do, retired traders do. To some people they gotta spend their time doing something!
  • #994
  • Apr 25, 2012 8:58am Apr 25, 2012 8:58am
the back and forth is quite funny, in fact the comedic value of this thread is what keeps me coming back.

The reality is that your not going to change anyone's mindset, they believe what they believe and that's that. It will only be through their own actions and experiences that mindsets will change. My experience has taught me that there are numerous ways to be successful in the market, and 1 is not necessarily better than the other. My experience has also taught me that chart time and capital preservation (sound money management) are the biggest factors in determining who will ultimately be successful and the reality of the situation is that most people don't have the real commitment to sit and analyze charts day in and out and really get a feel for how price moves and when to jump into the ring and when to stay out. For example today is a great day for me to stay out of the market, but for others based on their trading style it might be a perfect day.
  • #995
  • Apr 25, 2012 9:04am Apr 25, 2012 9:04am
Quoting Turveyd
Didn't the James16 and most of that crew get done for fraud for millions ??


Vegas Tunnel guy made millions of his method, no hang on frauded people out of millions but got caught LOL

They aren't even good scammers, they get busted all the time.
I think you are thinking of wacko jacko. I fail to see how j16 could be considered a fraud, I am not aware that he trades OPM. Now you can debate this trading school, not something I am interested in doing or really care about, but I don't think he is walking away with other peoples money.
  • #996
  • Apr 25, 2012 9:38am Apr 25, 2012 9:38am
Quoting endroute
I think you are thinking of wacko jacko. I fail to see how j16 could be considered a fraud, I am not aware that he trades OPM. Now you can debate this trading school, not something I am interested in doing or really care about, but I don't think he is walking away with other peoples money.

It's a possibility, I class paying someone for a service which simply won't / can't work also fraud though.

Why else does he charge after all ?? ofcourse to only get the serious people LOL
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #997
  • Apr 25, 2012 10:52am Apr 25, 2012 10:52am
jeanlouie, I will make a few final points in answer to your last message, without quoting you. It's not my intention to convince you of anything. If your critical thinking is good enough you will no doubt reach the same conclusions as I have.

My main point, which started this discussion, is that trading is VERY DIFFICULT. Not the act of clicking buy and sell of course - by trading I mean being constantly profitable, over a long period of time. How do I know that?

1. The top traders make huge amounts of money. Where does it come from? Usually it's not from one guy losing the same huge amount. It's from a large number of players losing smaller amounts. There is a very large number of losers who feed very few skilled traders on the top.
2. The statistics tell us that around 90-95% of the retail traders lose, most of them blowing at least 1 account. Plus the ones that don't lose this year could very well be among the ones losing next year.
3. We know of only a few excellent traders with proven records and they all say the same thing - that trading is very difficult, that it requires really hard work, that they constantly have to refine/adapt/change their methods and systems.
4. Being constantly profitable over 5-10 years automatically makes one incredibly rich - the power of compounding. But how many retail forex traders do we have among the richest people in the world?
5. We have forums such as this one where the same people keep posting and after years and years of trading they still talk about the same $3000 account, the same problems with entries and exits, the same good and bad days/weeks/months. Those people are well above average in terms of IQ, determination, desire to succeed - but they still can't win this game.
6. If trading was easy it could be summarized in a bunch of rules that any average guy could follow and become rich too. However after thousands of books and millions of posts written on the topic nobody has anything close to that. Some people never get good at it, others manage to learn it, but it takes many years and hard work to master it. Just like any other activity - it takes talent plus hard work to be one of the best.
7. Even if there was a "good" way to trade, constantly profitable ... when that way of trading becomes popular it simply stops working. Because there would be nobody silly enough to take the counterpart of your trade. We would all know that this is the right time to buy or sell. The market has this property of correcting itself, of killing any kind of inefficiency. It always works by inflicting as much pain as possible on the largest number of participants that is possible. It's the ultimate "f*ck you" device.
8. The market keeps changing. We know of several systems (even EA) that did exceptionally well for a few months or years, and failed miserably after that. So as a trader you are forced to learn/adapt constantly, even if you are a very good trader.
9. If someone can make millions with a simple mouse click he is not going to ask for a few dollars to teach others. He either doesn't teach at all (most likely), or if he is an amazing human being he could give a few tips or help others free of charge.
10. Since (as we both agree) there is conflicting information on almost every aspect of trading the only way to determine what works is by forward and backward testing. Plus adjusting parameters and so on. But in that case it is YOU and nobody else doing the hard work. If wannabe guru A says "use recovery" and wannabe guru B says "use a fixed SL" what do you learn? Unless they can show you a proven record of their trades whom do you trust? Neither. You have to test it yourself. So again ... it's your work.
11. Very simple logic tells us that the more money can be made in a business the more difficult it is to be good at that kind of business. Because people are attracted to it, the competition gets fierce and it's harder and harder to be among the winners. It's how societies work. If the best tennis players make more money than the best backgammon players you can be sure that it's easier to become a great backgammon player than a great tennis player. The markets promise huge rewards, more than anything else, and that's exactly why it's very hard to be among the winners.

This is my last post on this topic (is trading easy or difficult?), if these arguments do not convince you or anyone else I'm afraid that nothing ever will.
  • #998
  • Apr 25, 2012 10:56am Apr 25, 2012 10:56am
That was my take.

Quoting Razzle
As their subsequent performance shows, they where on a lucky streak

Thats the point that Naseem Talab makes in his book, fooled by randomness. There are times when particular methods suit particular market conditions, and as a trader, if you've developed the skills to recognise and profit from that, there's no reason why you shouldnt capitalise on that.
"The meek shall inherit the earth.." Yeah right, good luck with that shit..
  • #999
  • Apr 25, 2012 11:27am Apr 25, 2012 11:27am
Quoting LazyPawn
This is my last post on this topic (is trading easy or difficult?), if these arguments do not convince you or anyone else I'm afraid that nothing ever will.
Is trading easy or difficult? Of course trading is difficult!
  • #1,000
  • Apr 25, 2012 11:54am Apr 25, 2012 11:54am
lazypawn- truth hurts. you must have lost many friends. I read threads for laugh. Those traders with goood system will never sell their system,let alone post it for free.

I know one trader who makes money with his system.He says his secret is mm.
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