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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #33,141
  • Apr 24, 2012 8:55am Apr 24, 2012 8:55am
Quoting netFX
Let me clarify this first, I am not trying to put-down anyone here. I am trying to put forward my views on this matter.

@tubguy
In your response you have assumed that all indicators are lagging indicators which is not true. As I mentioned, take leading indicator like EW or Divergence into consideration, no matter how less probable that is and use the leading element in that indicator to build a high probable success rate indicators based on such element which is totally possible. In order to do this one needs to have extraordinary knowledge/skills...
Just to support my point of view here is the example where I used TA to predict market behavior few hours ago. here is the link for my post:
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...68#post5604268

Although, I did not include in depth TA in this post but there is one more piece of info was involved in making this prediction that is, it is re-bounce off 38.2 level fibo on some chat(don't want to reveal). Hope this helps in getting more insight about TA.
AshN
  • #33,142
  • Apr 24, 2012 9:03am Apr 24, 2012 9:03am
Quoting fti
ahhh, i c.
ok, keep the humble jobs.
This just pocket money.

I look forward that these pocket moneys will one day large enough exceeding your jobs income, then you can manage all the wealth you accumulated with yur work.

regards
Hope to find that day before long. mainly want to help my pop live a nice comfortable retirement.
  • #33,143
  • Apr 24, 2012 9:17am Apr 24, 2012 9:17am
Quoting netFX
Just to support my point of view here is the example where I used TA to predict market behavior few hours ago. here is the link for my post:
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...68#post5604268

Although, I did not include in depth TA in this post but there is one more piece of info was involved in making this prediction that is, it is re-bounce off 38.2 level fibo on some chat(don't want to reveal). Hope this helps in getting more insight about TA.
Sorry for not replying sooner.
Looks like your in some good pips right now.

I believe I was painting with a broad brush and wasn't clear. I know that some TA works great and I use some myself.
I have a tendency to not be very good at conveying my thoughts in writing. I was mainly referring to the expectation of indicators. I have on many occasions had an expectation and gotten my butt handed to me.
So I have learned to remain flexible when price approaches a trendline etc.

Wasn't trying to invoke an argument or make you feel like you had to prove it to me. I am a lifetime member of the J16 group and know full well that TA
can work when used correctly.

I just don't consider trendlines, S&R, Fibs, Wave counts, etc. indicators in the usual sense.

Anyway, great trade

Mike
  • #33,144
  • Apr 24, 2012 10:08am Apr 24, 2012 10:08am
Quoting fti
yes Zoran.
Some peeps love watching grass grow into padi.

I used to love watch my little white ball roll into a hole from yards away.
things peeps do.

Hows everything? All shipshape?

regards
Not everything, I started working in Brussels a few months back and I'm earning €€€'s. Since I have to send them back to the UK, the €/£ exchange rate is getting worse.
  • #33,145
  • Apr 24, 2012 10:54am Apr 24, 2012 10:54am
Hi tubguy,

Quote... 'I just don't consider trendlines, S&R, Fibs, Wave counts, etc. indicators in the usual sense'.


just my personal view.


I used to think that way, but I find that if I put ANY line on a chart, it WILL affect what I see and how I react as much as i used to tell myself it's not set in stone....

we usually see what we want to see.


Not trying to open any cans of worms with anyone, just a post for another taf member.


Regards


Phil.
-be careful about what you allow to be put in your mind-
  • #33,146
  • Apr 24, 2012 11:15am Apr 24, 2012 11:15am
Inserted Video


Check out life of tiesto, one of top DJs in world and very rich man. That's what FTI's talking about, even though hecould rest at carribean island rest of his life, he prefers to work hard and make his fans happy ^^
  • #33,147
  • Apr 24, 2012 11:31am Apr 24, 2012 11:31am
Quoting netFX
Just to support my point of view here is the example where I used TA to predict market behavior few hours ago. here is the link for my post:
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...68#post5604268

Although, I did not include in depth TA in this post but there is one more piece of info was involved in making this prediction that is, it is re-bounce off 38.2 level fibo on some chat(don't want to reveal). Hope this helps in getting more insight about TA.
The message is don't get rigid with them, it has worked this time but not necessarily next time again.
  • #33,148
  • Apr 24, 2012 12:14pm Apr 24, 2012 12:14pm
Quoting fti
ai yo, my friend.
Please no use God's name in vain.
God is greatest.
I am just one of his creations.

No scare the living daylights out of me.

regards
well said chief, back to battle station on rescues. very slow markets but slow markets have its benefits too.
  • #33,149
  • Apr 24, 2012 12:20pm Apr 24, 2012 12:20pm
Quoting phil13
Hi tubguy,

Quote... 'I just don't consider trendlines, S&R, Fibs, Wave counts, etc. indicators in the usual sense'.


just my personal view.


I used to think that way, but I find that if I put ANY line on a chart, it WILL affect what I see and how I react as much as i used to tell myself it's not set in stone....

we usually see what we want to see.


Not trying to open any cans of worms with anyone, just a post for another taf member.


Regards


Phil.
Hi Phil,

No can of worms opened. LOL

i agree. I got my butt kicked seeing what I wanted to see and expecting something to happen when price would reach a line.
I am no longer rigid most of the time. i may draw a line on occasion to help me visualize a pattern and then it goes away.

Good Trading
Mike
  • #33,150
  • Apr 24, 2012 1:11pm Apr 24, 2012 1:11pm
Quoting fti
no harm, you are new here, and probably not read much of the thread.
Only because i felt a little uncomfortable with your mindset, i just wanted help you see better. I not asking apologies.

I see what you mean, we always think somewhere else is better than where we are mostly. Is human nature.But really we mostly trying run away from ourselves.

By the way, welcome to the thread.
Hope reading this unending thread is meaningful for your development.



regards
It's mostly due to the weather, not escaping from anything. Coming from Norway I've had enough of snow and rain, so I want to spend my time in a place with sun and above 20 degrees year round. I'll still work just as much, I wasn't saying I'd lie on the beach sipping mojito's 24/7.
  • #33,151
  • Apr 24, 2012 2:25pm Apr 24, 2012 2:25pm
Quoting simpleman
The message is don't get rigid with them, it has worked this time but not necessarily next time again.
this was one example given to support my point of views. I know very well what market is and it may not work same kinda prediction. Look like some people here try to judge others and jump on conclusions very easily.
AshN
  • #33,152
  • Apr 24, 2012 2:29pm Apr 24, 2012 2:29pm
Quoting fti
you seem dangerous mindset.
You like have bias.
I cannot trade with bias.
Bias only helps define some strategies. Mostly still need manage.
I cannot manage bias and market together.
Prefer serve 1 master, flow.
Be extremely careful with bias emotions.
all rest on skills & experience manage.
At the end of the day, profits is result of managing.
Profits from bias i classify as gambling.
My survival is dependent on skills mindset.
cannot depend on accuracy of bias to be profitable.
I need consistency of profitability. And markets are...
Thanks for analysis about my mindset. It is better if someone not try to become god for others. It is better not jump on conclusion about others mindset. It s called immature mindset if any conclusion is drawn without through analysis.
AshN
  • #33,153
  • Apr 24, 2012 2:49pm Apr 24, 2012 2:49pm
Quoting netFX
Thanks for analysis about my mindset. It is better if someone not try to become god for others. It is better not jump on conclusion about others mindset. It s called immature mindset if any conclusion is drawn without through analysis.

If you dislike the discussion, why continue?
  • #33,154
  • Apr 24, 2012 3:05pm Apr 24, 2012 3:05pm
Quoting tubguy
If you dislike the discussion, why continue?
I don't dislike discussion. But like any other discussion I don't want people get away with unjust/unfair comments on someone else. However, at this point I feel that it is futile to carry on such discussion where some people unfairly judge others and show immature mindset. So, goodbye.
AshN
  • #33,155
  • Apr 24, 2012 3:17pm Apr 24, 2012 3:17pm
Quoting netFX
this was one example given to support my point of views. I know very well what market is and it may not work same kinda prediction. Look like some people here try to judge others and jump on conclusions very easily.
You didn't understand the thread, read it again and this time understand.
  • #33,156
  • Apr 24, 2012 6:13pm Apr 24, 2012 6:13pm
Quoting netFX
Thanks for analysis about my mindset. It is better if someone not try to become god for others. It is better not jump on conclusion about others mindset. It s called immature mindset if any conclusion is drawn without through analysis.
Hey Netfx,

It seems that you have taken Fti's comments negatively as an attack. This prevents you from getting anything positive. Would it not be more productive to think about what his comments mean in a constructive way..? You have taken it as offence that he questions your mindset but have you given any consideration that it may be true..?

can you always improve? can you learn more? can you be better...?

I Think that i am correct in saying that you have not read through the thread? the information and strategies contained within are contradictory to your current way of trading. You mentioned you had a stop loss 8 pips away from entry? I would challenge you to read through the thread and then see if it does not change your mind about trading.
  • #33,157
  • Edited 7:56pm Apr 24, 2012 7:17pm | Edited 7:56pm
Quoting netFX
Thanks for analysis about my mindset. It is better if someone not try to become god for others. It is better not jump on conclusion about others mindset. It s called immature mindset if any conclusion is drawn without through analysis.
see you in the markets.

@ my friends, although we should help others.
For those rude and arrogant ones.
maybe is best just leave them scorpions to their own poisons.
Is difficult when they keep stinking you with poisons when we trying help them.
The stench is worst then the sting.
This one also sounds much like the turncoat lion.:rofl : both likes mork GOD.
coincidence?too bad fail again.
please be informed that GOD is much much much more powerful and greater than me.
noway i can ever get close to even 1% of GOD.

Hope their trade positions is in not too bad state.
sometimes when its very bad, peeps blows off steam.
If their positions not take them down , surely their ego would.

By the way , is FOMC day.
Maybe they can predict the fed's next move.
  • #33,158
  • Apr 24, 2012 7:39pm Apr 24, 2012 7:39pm
How are you Fti?
Hope you are doing better!
Did you fixed you problem with Oanda? If so, what was their excuse?
  • #33,159
  • Apr 24, 2012 8:01pm Apr 24, 2012 8:01pm
Quoting Jaro
How are you Fti?
Hope you are doing better!
Did you fixed you problem with Oanda? If so, what was their excuse?
nope, jaro, not yet.
i am not mobile enough do it yet.
i not big on retail, so i 'll deal with it when i can.


regards
  • #33,160
  • Apr 24, 2012 9:03pm Apr 24, 2012 9:03pm
Quoting fti

Hope their trade positions is in not too bad state.
sometimes when its very bad, peeps blows off steam.
If their positions not take them down , surely their ego would.
This is so true..!

I live in the UK and when i was 17 a few years ago, I first started trading i took my money to the bank. My plan was to change everything into usd and then in a few years sell it back and hopefully make a profit. Luckily the women at the bank asked me what i was changing the money for and when i explained my plan to her she quickly made me realize it was not possible.

I got home and came across forex and began trading with fxcm, within a few days i deposited all my £800 into the account and began trading. I came across one pair the GBP/NZD huge volatility and i noticed every time it hit a certain level it would come down. I didnt even know charts or technical analysis existed at this point. Over the next 3 weeks i sold everytime around this level and within 3 weeks had turned the £800 into £5,000.

I felt great and like i was a good trader although i knew i didnt really know much but i was making real money. On the 4th week i had built my position size up to be huge and this time the market didnt go down and i lost everything. Over the next few weeks i managed to build it back up again only to eventually lose everything. It was as this point i realized i need to educate my self. this was no good if i could just lose everything so quickly..!!

After exploring the internet, forums, I took a course with fxcm, and bought a few books I learnt about technical analysis, indicators,and what i thought was the importance of stop loss and limit orders. Based on the new information i had learnt i started trading again with a small amount of money. I was more educated now i knew about fibo retracements, macd convergence, stochastics indicator etc and my strategy was to have a 10 pip stop loss on every trade. Now I could never lose all my money in one trade.! So much smarter i believed. And if i could get a 60-70 pip move then i have potentially 6 or 7 attempts at another move.! This is the sort of thing you will learn in the mainstream forex education arena.!

I traded for a while like this had a longer period of success but eventually this just was not working out. I took a few more courses paid a lot of money for one course! until i eventually found this thread in 2008.

For me Fti has provided in this forum a professional insight into the world of Trading. For me i think where else could i get these insights? this information? i live in london and canary wharf is financial hub maybe i can find some people there.? but not so easy haha.

I feel lucky to have found this thread and for the contributors, For the time Fti has spent here on his mission to help people trade. It is not the type of information that can be bought but rather it is given freely and with the aim of helping people. One is for profit and the other is the greater good, to help and give back to others. Once someone has helped them selves then they can truly help others, it is the greater good.! Information given in this manner surely the best!

I read often Fti say you "can lead the horse to the water but you can not make him drink.!" I think this sums up everything about this thread it is down to you the information is here if you will take the time to learn it.

Anyway that is my little story of my trading journey and perhaps to some people who come across the thread and only glance over the first page or two take a second though to realise this is not like any other thread but a special gem.! If serious about trading worth some time!

Fti is the wisest and most inspiring person i have come into contact with and i only know him to read his posts in this thread Thanks!
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