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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #33,101
  • Apr 23, 2012 4:58pm Apr 23, 2012 4:58pm
Inserted Video


FTI you know these guys, Cohen,... My German professor told me they are like mafia.

No I am relaxed I know there are no quick methods to get rich nor I want go that way, but I am in part of my life, where I am growing up and going into my own way, and others will never treat me as my parents do as business is tough game. But it's ok I like challenges in life In taekwondo really in 3 weeks I went from (top to deepest bottom) training with Korean prof team, to training alone under bridge and in basement, what I currently do for more than 3 months :S
  • #33,102
  • Apr 23, 2012 6:22pm Apr 23, 2012 6:22pm
Quoting fullperson
got rejected from JPM's summer program 5 minutes ago.. after all this time...This is really disappointing. I guess I'll have to work in wealth management

They have a small desk on the buy side, hopefully I'll get some experience there. I hear the internship competition is similar for other aspiring traders. Good luck.

careful mija, get rich quick mentality is always a scary thought. Relax and enjoy the weather if you've got it This will keep mindset grounded when pressure is up.
oh ,so sorry to hear that.
I thought you said they already offered you position.
Nevermind, just do wantever is at the doors.
If you good, they will find you.

Like highlight 1 point.
Never hold your breath in financial deals.
always keep your options open.

regards
  • #33,103
  • Apr 23, 2012 7:28pm Apr 23, 2012 7:28pm
Full person, you will be fine, there are many finincial instutions around. Friend of mine told me it's hard to get in biggest ones, you need strong connections or in chinese guanxi
  • #33,104
  • Edited 8:22pm Apr 23, 2012 7:40pm | Edited 8:22pm
Quoting mijamoto
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DwftLWDObhU

FTI you know these guys, Cohen,... My German professor told me they are like mafia.

No I am relaxed I know there are no quick methods to get rich nor I want go that way, but I am in part of my life, where I am growing up and going into my own way, and others will never treat me as my parents do as business is tough game. But it's ok I like challenges in life In taekwondo really in 3 weeks I went from (top to deepest bottom) training with Korean prof team, to training alone under bridge and...
Why do people feel the need for such excess? Why not live small and donate to children's hospitals or something that means something.

I want my freedom from trading and would love to do as well as these cats financially, but I could not live in a house the size of a small city.

All I need is a comfortable place to sleep, a good shower, enough food, & would like a few beers and a BBQ pit. OPPS!
Forgot to mention my friends. Gotta have those

The rest of the money I could give away.

Guess It's from my cowboy life. Simple is just right.
  • #33,105
  • Apr 23, 2012 9:36pm Apr 23, 2012 9:36pm
Quoting fti

have a break, eat a cat?

regards
Man, you and your cat! you must understand I am trying to refrain from eating meat! SPCA and PAWS are trying to save those abandoned cats/dogs on the street, and I see you have found a quicker solution. Lolll!
  • #33,106
  • Apr 23, 2012 9:43pm Apr 23, 2012 9:43pm
Quoting Fana
Where? Cats are served? Let me know when dinner begin! Regards
Yo Fana!! How about grilled vegatables instead? It's much healthier
  • #33,107
  • Apr 23, 2012 10:02pm Apr 23, 2012 10:02pm
First of all we need to define what technical analysis means. - In a simple layman's word i would say technical analysis is the analysis based on certain logic considering price/volume parameter at regular pips or time interval. All these, so called published indicators are mainly give some insight of market based on price movement (may be in the form of moving averages or any other form) at regular interval of time or price blocks. In a conventional way almost all technical indicators convey the same thing. If we vary the parameters we get this information in various form like buy/sell signal, overbought/oversold etc. I have seen so many people saying that one should only consider Price Action and do not rely on indicators. This statement is somewhat contradictory in nature because looking at price action only in a way technical analysis it is same as using any indicator the only difference being indicators can be expressed in terms of some formulas whereas this so called price action may or may not be formulated. If one thinks that any price action strategy that works - it is possible that such price action strategy can be formulated and convert into technical indicators with some extra ordinary knowledge/skills in Algorithm development.

In essence, the point I am trying to make that don't blame on technical analysis. Technical analysis do not work for most of the time because that technical analysis is not sound enough to capture the complete behavior of the market. You will all agree that EW analysis don't work all the time but there is at least one instance where it has worked. Likewise, divergence (e.g. MACD divergence ) don't work all the time but it has worked at least once. These both types of indicators are basically leading indicators unlike Moving averages and other indicators. The only problem is that they are not 100% reliable but there is certainly an element of leading prediction although it may be very less. So, why not develop your own indicator which will take this element into consideration and try to capture only successful part of these indicators and filter out failures. This way you can have very sound technical indicator which will work for any type of market behavior. Yes, i agree, it is very difficult to come up with such indicator but it is not totally impossible. After all, one should not expect anything without hard work and certainly not this Forex market where if traded correctly it is like growing "money plant' in your backyard.

Quoting fti
Apologies
-no mentor, or course, or literiture can give anyone the holy grail to the secrets of success in trading in the markets.
-"and no one, sells the goose that lays golden eggs, probably the eggs, but never the goose"
Nevertheless, I will humbly attempt.

Since the late 70s and into the millinium.
Many "engineers" have made public, their inventions of reading probabilities into Technical Indicators. Many Technical Analysis Gurus came to the forefront to sell their research findings. To name a few,
The Grand daddy being Charles Dow...
AshN
  • #33,108
  • Apr 23, 2012 10:50pm Apr 23, 2012 10:50pm
Quoting netFX
First of all we need to define what technical analysis means. - In a simple layman's word i would say technical analysis is the analysis based on certain logic considering price/volume parameter at regular pips or time interval. All these, so called published indicators are mainly give some insight of market based on price movement (may be in the form of moving averages or any other form) at regular interval of time or price blocks. In a conventional way almost all technical indicators convey the same thing. If we vary the parameters we get this...

So we should make a TAF indicator?

Not trying to be rude, but I don't think that is possible.

TA can work, just look at the J16 thread. but no indicator can tell you what price will do next, only a probability.

I am a huge fan of J16 and direct noobs there without hesitation because it is simple and very high probability trading. Still do it myself some.

In the end, TA is a fallacy because price moves and the indicator tells you what happened. Nothing more or less.

Not to say it can't work when used properly but it can't predict as most think.

Maybe, look up what Fti mentioned a while back? Death by a thousand stops.

Good Trading
Mike

Fti, If I am misguided please feel free to delete this post and correct me.
  • #33,109
  • Apr 23, 2012 11:11pm Apr 23, 2012 11:11pm
Quoting netFX
First of all we need to define what technical analysis means. - In a simple layman's word i would say technical analysis is the analysis based on certain logic considering price/volume parameter at regular pips or time interval. All these, so called published indicators are mainly give some insight of market based on price movement (may be in the form of moving averages or any other form) at regular interval of time or price blocks. In a conventional way almost all technical indicators convey the same thing. If we vary the parameters we get this...
http://i488.photobucket.com/albums/r...n-laughing.gif
  • #33,110
  • Apr 23, 2012 11:25pm Apr 23, 2012 11:25pm
Quoting tubguy
So we should make a TAF indicator?

Not trying to be rude, but I don't think that is possible.

TA can work, just look at the J16 thread. but no indicator can tell you what price will do next, only a probability.

I am a huge fan of J16 and direct noobs there without hesitation because it is simple and very high probability trading. Still do it myself some.

In the end, TA is a fallacy because price moves and the indicator tells you what happened. Nothing more or less.

Not to say it can't work when...
Let me clarify this first, I am not trying to put-down anyone here. I am trying to put forward my views on this matter.

@tubguy
In your response you have assumed that all indicators are lagging indicators which is not true. As I mentioned, take leading indicator like EW or Divergence into consideration, no matter how less probable that is and use the leading element in that indicator to build a high probable success rate indicators based on such element which is totally possible. In order to do this one needs to have extraordinary knowledge/skills in Algorithm development area. I hope I clarified your doubt.
AshN
  • #33,111
  • Apr 24, 2012 1:02am Apr 24, 2012 1:02am
Quoting jimborders
Yo Fana!! How about grilled vegatables instead? It's much healthier
Hi Jimmy. Yeah! As a garnish vegetable is very good... But most often, no garnish Regards
  • #33,112
  • Apr 24, 2012 1:19am Apr 24, 2012 1:19am
Quoting netFX
Let me clarify this first, I am not trying to put-down anyone here. I am trying to put forward my views on this matter.

@tubguy
In your response you have assumed that all indicators are lagging indicators which is not true. As I mentioned, take leading indicator like EW or Divergence into consideration, no matter how less probable that is and use the leading element in that indicator to build a high probable success rate indicators based on such element which is totally possible. In order to do this one needs to have extraordinary knowledge/skills...
This thread is like religion.

they all have faith on fairy tales and will simply reject evidence of anything, no individual or inquisitive thinking is allowed.

FTI is their god

give it up man, better put forth your ideas somewhere else.
AVT INVENIAM VIAM AVT FACIAM
  • #33,113
  • Edited 1:48am Apr 24, 2012 1:38am | Edited 1:48am
Up to everybody to be here or not.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #33,114
  • Apr 24, 2012 2:18am Apr 24, 2012 2:18am
Quoting Fana
Up to everybody to be here or not.
Hi Fana,

You mind elaborating on what happened to the major DD in Apr?

Regards
N
  • #33,115
  • Apr 24, 2012 2:31am Apr 24, 2012 2:31am
Quoting N_Trader
Hi Fana,

You mind elaborating on what happened to the major DD in Apr?

Regards
N
Hi N_Trader. I highly recommend not to take info from anybody. The only source is Fti-200pages. And i do not giving advices and i dont discuss trading. "Guess whose are those results". Taker care my friend and first watch your own brain how it reacts, how it works and so... Regards
  • #33,116
  • Apr 24, 2012 2:41am Apr 24, 2012 2:41am
Dear NetFX please understand that what FTI was trying to highlight that the way most noobs use technical analysis i.e. buying buying and selling when macd is at certain value or certain MA cross over takes place will create rigidity in the traders mindset and will not allow him to see the actual thing that his happening in the market. Please read a bit furthur and I think his points will be clear to you. Below I am quoting one of FTI's earlier quotes I hope this will help


this is post no 28 on page 2
Quoting fti
Hi All


Before i try to throw some light on the points that you have put forth. Let me say that personally, having being a Technical Analyst professionally, I feel much sadden by some of the things I seen, and the directions that the pursuits of modern Technicians have taken. Nevertheless in the guise of advancement and development, things are bound to change, But when basic principals are sidelined , people like myself should come to the fore to direct the way back to basics, as best we can. This is esp so for the benefit of the newer generation...
  • #33,117
  • Apr 24, 2012 2:47am Apr 24, 2012 2:47am
Quoting netFX
Let me clarify this first, I am not trying to put-down anyone here. I am trying to put forward my views on this matter.

@tubguy
In your response you have assumed that all indicators are lagging indicators which is not true. As I mentioned, take leading indicator like EW or Divergence into consideration, no matter how less probable that is and use the leading element in that indicator to build a high probable success rate indicators based on such element which is totally possible. In order to do this one needs to have extraordinary...
This is only a hypothesis. Or have you actually invented such an indicator and succesfully tested it in and out of sample? I think until you or anyone else does that, it remains just a hypothesis yet to be confirmed.

You also need to consider that even if a techinical indicator "works" now there is no guarantee that it will keep working in the future since it (the indicator) will "train" the market to become more efficient. For example scientific literature has shown that even simple moving average indicators used to be profitable in the forex market in the past but not so now.
  • #33,118
  • Apr 24, 2012 2:50am Apr 24, 2012 2:50am
Quoting Fana
Hi N_Trader. I highly recommend not to take info from anybody. The only source is Fti-200pages. And i do not giving advices and i dont discuss trading. "Guess whose are those results". Taker care my friend and first watch your own brain how it reacts, how it works and so... Regards
Ok. First of all, if it was not meant for discussion, why did you post it? Unless you wanna show off? I am fine with that actually

I am not asking/giving advice. I just feel that the DD is too large and maybe it has deviated from fti's teachings. I think it was pointed out in earlier post not to risk more then 10%.

Anyway, I will not comment any further.

Good trading to all.

Regards
N
  • #33,119
  • Apr 24, 2012 3:49am Apr 24, 2012 3:49am
@Fana!

Congratulations and keep it up.

regards
  • #33,120
  • Edited 4:29am Apr 24, 2012 4:11am | Edited 4:29am
Quoting jimborders
Man, you and your cat! you must understand I am trying to refrain from eating meat! SPCA and PAWS are trying to save those abandoned cats/dogs on the street, and I see you have found a quicker solution. Lolll!
ok ok getting it.
you misunderstood I was naughty.


regards
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