VantagePoint discussion thread

Hi Warthog,

Looks like a very interesting strategy, however is there some text missing in the BUY signal? I read:
"
if (ma2 > ma2[1] and ma2[1]<MA2[2]) then< p> begin
buy next bar at open;
end;
"
but all the other 'if' statements have a ") then" before the begin.

Thanks

Tradesheet attached

I have designed a statistical model to forecast forex markets on a daily basis. I used historical data from the 12 Forex markets I have access to. Using the same dates as Vantage Point, here's a side by side comparison of my system with Vantage Point's claimed test results:

<table x:str="" style="border-collapse: collapse; width: 201pt;" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="267"><col style="width: 98pt;" width="131"> <col style="width: 74pt;" width="98"> <col style="width: 29pt;" width="38"> <tbody><tr style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17"> <td class="xl24" style="height: 12.75pt; width: 98pt;" height="17" width="131">
</td> <td class="xl25" style="width: 74pt;" width="98">Vantage Point</td> <td class="xl26" style="width: 29pt;" width="38">Mine</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17"> <td class="xl24" style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17">GBP-USD</td> <td class="xl27" x:num="">77.2</td> <td class="xl28" x:num="74.175824175824175">74.2</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17"> <td class="xl24" style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17">EUR-USD</td> <td class="xl27" x:num="">72.2</td> <td class="xl28" x:num="77.472527472527474">77.5</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17"> <td class="xl24" style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17">USD-CHF</td> <td class="xl27" x:num="">75</td> <td class="xl28" x:num="78.571428571428569">78.6</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17"> <td class="xl24" style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17">AUD-JPY</td> <td class="xl27" x:num="">78</td> <td class="xl28" x:num="77.54010695187165">77.5</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17"> <td class="xl24" style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17">GBP-CHF</td> <td class="xl27" x:num="">75.8</td> <td class="xl28" x:num="77.54010695187165">77.5</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17"> <td class="xl24" style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17">GBP-JPY</td> <td class="xl27" x:num="">80.1</td> <td class="xl28" x:num="78.609625668449198">78.6</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17"> <td class="xl24" style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17">USD-NZD</td> <td class="xl27" x:num="">76.3</td> <td class="xl28" x:num="76.470588235294116">76.5</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17"> <td class="xl24" style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17">USD-JPY</td> <td class="xl27" x:num="">72.5</td> <td class="xl28" x:num="">75.0</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17"> <td class="xl24" style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17">AUD-USD</td> <td class="xl27" x:num="">73.7</td> <td class="xl28" x:num="73.4982332155477">73.5</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17"> <td class="xl24" style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17">EUR-GBP</td> <td class="xl27" x:num="">72.6</td> <td class="xl28" x:num="73.144876325088333">73.1</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17"> <td class="xl24" style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17">EUR-JPY</td> <td class="xl27" x:num="">77.2</td> <td class="xl28" x:num="74.911660777385151">74.9</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17"> <td class="xl24" style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17">USD-CAD</td> <td class="xl27" x:num="">72.3</td> <td class="xl28" x:num="72.438162544169614">72.4</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17"> <td class="xl24" style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17">
</td> <td class="xl27">
</td> <td class="xl28">
</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17"> <td class="xl29" style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17">12 Market Average:</td> <td class="xl28" x:num="75.24166666666666" x:fmla="=AVERAGE(B2:B13)">75.2</td> <td class="xl28" x:num="75.781095074121467">75.8</td> </tr> </tbody></table>

I'll post the code to my system if there's any interest (or maybe I should charge $$$?).
I was amazed at the correlation between my results and those of VP. I have a strong feeling I may have stumbled upon the primary formula VP uses in their forecasts.

Tradesheet

Hi BB,

Have just downloaded and entered p/h and p/l, (8th, 11.45pm GMT), but my figures are different to yours. Mine missed the entry which occurred on the 5th. I'm getting a bit confused now. Is there something that I've missed. I've noticed your're latest excel sheet is dated the 9th. It has just turned midnight here in England, and the entries and limits have been met already.

BB,

I'm curious if you enter trades based on your stoch 9,7,7 trend determination system when the stoch is giving you a clear signal in one direction despite an obviously strong trend in the other direction.

Take today's EURUSD chart as an example (attached).

In this sort of a situation would you go ahead and trust your system and enter the short trade, or is this an example of a scenario where you would use discretion and stand aside?

I'm interested both in how you'd apply this situation to the 24 hour set & forget system, and to your own managed trades.

J

Hello Dave.....

Who is your data provider? I use CSI, so the different p/h and p/l could be because we use different providers. (Yesterday I signed up for a 30 day free trial of Genesis data and will start posting the info from both providers for comparison purposes.)

I dated my recent sheet May 9 because I will close all trades before 5pm est on May 9, while in fact I started my trades at 6pm est on May 8 after downloading the most recent data.

I'm not sure why your entries and limits have already been met. When I downloaded my data and prepared this sheet at 6pm est on May 8, pricing on the 9 pairs I trade was very close to the median price. This meant all entry orders could be entered on my account. Right now it is 8am est and one order has been filled and finished (usd/jpy for a profit of 38 pips). Eight orders are still pending and I will leave them until about 4:30pm est. At that time I will close and/or cancel all trades and orders and start the whole process over again.

It's that simple. I want this system to be as simple, consistent and predictable as possible.

HTH !!!

Hello J

My experience in this situation tells me to enter an order for a "sell" trade, regardless of the trend. Even though the trend direction is strongly "up", I am looking for the price to hit the area of the p/h first and then fall to my t/p before bouncing up as part of the daily price action. If I miss a trade, it's no big deal because there will be more good trades coming. This is the best way to use this system in a true "set & forget" manner for 24 hours. I only stand aside if the 4 hour Stoch is not giving a clear signal. (Flat line, no separation of 2 lines).

There are endless possibilities for managing trades, and I use many of them according to my current circumstances. In this situation, you could choose to watch the price action, waiting for the price to reach either the p/h or p/l first and then enter a trade using fundemental t/a, trading to the opposite predicted area. Of course, this requires chart watching, something I will occasionally do.

Tradesheet with CSI and Genesis data

Hi BB,

Thanks for that. I am using a trial period with CRB at the moment and will use the Genesis trial when that is finished. I will have to work this out because it is a good simple system. It is frustating to see it working so well when I haven't had the opportunity to enter the trades at the right time. Hopefully I can get it resolved.

Good trading everybody.

I'm going to use my 30 day free Genesis trial to compare trade possibilities and then offer some observations.

Don't worry about missing out, there will be plenty of good trading ahead. (Right now you're not missiing much. The last two days have been loosers, but this happens sometimes).

How do you get free trials with these data providers? I searched CRB, CSI, and Genesis web sites, but didn't find such promotions.

Hi Canona,

You tell them that you are a Vantage Point client (which you are or should be) and that you would like to use their data service for the trial period in order to assess it. VP should have sent you the various data provider cd's with their software (i.e. CIS, CRB Genesis).

Tradesheet

Hi BB,

I have just downloaded the data from CRB for three pairs:
eur/usdp/h

Hi BB,

I have just downloaded the data from CRB for three pairs:

eur/usd: p/h 1.2811
p/l 1.2702

gbp/usd: 1.8700
1.8571

usd/chf 1.1052
1.0972

There is a few pips difference between your provider CSI and CRB but nothing that would cause a great deviation in entry and exit forcasts I would'nt imagine.

What am I missing? I called CIS and CRB last week and nobody offered me this free trial. So if you don't ask for it, you don't get it? Not fair.

Very often reality does not seem fair.............

All three data providers will give you a free trial.............IF you ask for it, either on the phone or by e-mail. Enjoy the perks!

Tradesheet

Tradesheet