Some of my forecasts

I’m open this thread to not only dedicate to my forecasts, but also am open to talking about technical analysis as it relates to my forecasts. I would like my thread to be a learning tool for newbies where they can feel free to come ask questions, make comments without feeling like they are going to be inhibited by name-callers or flame throwers.
I welcome input from experienced traders. All comments are welcomed. If you don’t agree with my analysis, then step up and tell me why.
I’m a 100% chartist, TA person, and I’ll let you decide by my forecasts how good I am.
Out of respect and common courtesy, if you’re a potty mouth, want to post unrelated material, want to show off how tough you are by calling others names, then stay away. When I do something for free, I don’t want to deal with those kind of problems. Those are the things I don’t have time for. If you have an opinion separate from mine, then let’s share and discuss while being respectful and professional about it.
There is structure in what I do, so you will know when to expect certain things. I adhere to the following schedule. All times are GMT:
1.I do a Weekly Forecast that is published Saturday evening.
2.My Mid-week Review/ Forecast is ready On Wednesday around midnight.
3.My Weekly Review is ready to go Friday night. It reviews the previous week’s forecasts, holds me accountable and keeps my feet to the fire.
4.My proprietary S&R’s (I’ll tell you more about later.) are also ready on Friday nights. I’ll let you decide just how good they really are.

With all that being said, I’ll start off with publishing this week’s Weekly Review, this week’s S&R’s, and the Weekly Forecast.
As time goes, I’ll also go into more detail about my methodology, and even the semantics that can only fall out of 4xpipcounter’s closet. I hope some will be entertained.

Let’s begin the journey. With regard to the name calling, cussing in my thread, the journey lasts only as long as that criterion is met.

EUR/USD: The strong move that ended last week should continue this week. If there is a correction to start the week, then it will be contained at the WR1 at 1.3135. The WS2 at 1.2975 is a very strong S. It is likely that the WS2 will contain, but if it doesn’t, then the WS3 at 1.2893 could abruptly be put on the radar.

The week started the week in the trend that ended last week to 1.2994, which is about half between the WS1 and WS2. The abrupt reversal took the pair to the peak at 1.3226

USD/JPY: This pair was correcting the DOWN from near the beginning of last week and it is still not finished. It should continue to the WR2 at 81.60 or the daily tenken at 81.77. From there the pair might be ready to resume its MT trip south.

The pair headed south to start the week to the dip at 80.29, then the reversal took it to the peak at 81.77, exactly.

GBP/USD: The week ended with a very strong move south and there is little doubt that will continue this week. Any correction will be contained at the MS1/ WR1 combo at 1.5886—91. The pair is headed to the weekly kijun at 1.5698 and the bottom of the daily cloud at 1.5611. The WS2 is 1.5746. Look for containment to the south to be there, with an outside shot at 1.5698.

I was way off on this one. The week started to the dip at 1.5818, and then reversed to the peak at 1.6148.
Note: The only bright side about this pair this week is that I adjusted the containment level at 1.6150.

USD/CHF: This pair looks very strong for this week. It is doubtful any move south would hit the WS1 at .9153. The top of the daily cloud at .9262 is on the radar this week.

This pair did its job and headed towards the top of the cloud, even though falling short as the peak was 12 pips short at .9250. The dip was .9082, just 1 pip under the close.

AUD/USD: We should get a correction to the 4-hour tenken at 1.0407 and maybe the WR1 at 1.0430. Afterward, the move south will continue to the WS1 at 1.0304 and the WS2 at 1.0242. Both are cluster events.

The former cluster event contained as the dip was 1.0304 exactly. That left additional room for the move to the top as the peak was 1.0481.

USD/CAD: This pair finally broke out of its eastward channel. Any move south should be contained at the WS1/ daily tenken area of .9957--.9955. The move north is headed to the WR2 at 1.0060 and possibly the top of the daily cloud at 1.0080.

I missed this one. The pair got scared out of the daily cloud after it peaked at 1.0031, then it was a violent reversal to the dip at .9864.

NZD/USD: This pair ended last week with a ferocious drop. That should continue this week as topside containment will be the 4-hour tenken/ WR1 area of .8256--.8277. The continuance of the trend should move to the bottom of the daily cloud at .8121, with a small spike to the WS2 at .8112.

The peak and dip were .8250 and .8117. We did get a small spike, but not even large enough to hit the WS2.

EUR/GBP: This pair is ugly and will stay that way until the bottom of the monthly cloud at .8167. There’s nothing much left to say about this pair. It’s a sleeper.

We made it! Finally! For <> 4 months I’ve been talking about this pair hitting .8167, the bottom of the monthly cloud. This week’s peak is .8161

EUR/JPY: Where there is no doubt this week is that the action will be contained between the weekly 2’s. It is a matter of time when this pair breaks 105.40, and when it does, the pace will pick up. Therefore, if the pair starts off towards the WS1 at 105.22, then the WS2 at 104.66 is on the radar. The WR2 at 106.32 should contain to the north.

The downside looked good as the dip was 104.61. The move north surprised me as the peak was 107.99, 20 pips on the other side of the WR3.

GBP/JPY: This pair is preparing for either a huge MT move south or a complete trend change, which would be a return to the LT DOWN. For the shorter term, the top of the daily cloud at 126.80 will contain for what should be a correction amounting to several days. Considering the WS2 is 126.84, it amounts to a solid confluence. The WR1 is 128.77 which should be topside containment this week.

That solid confluence did more than contain, as the dip was 127.11. The return to the UP was maniacal as the peak was 131.78, a whopping 136 pips above the WR3.

R3r2r1s1s2s3
eur/usd1.34491.33421.32771.31491.30841.2977
usd/jpy82.9882.3081.8981.0780.6679.98
gbp/usd1.64521.63001.62081.60241.59321.5780
usd/chf0.92510.91750.91290.90370.89910.8915
aud/usd1.05511.04701.04221.03241.02761.0195
usd/cad1.00891.00130.99670.98750.98290.9753
nzd/usd0.83130.82520.82160.81420.81060.8045
eur/gbp0.83000.82520.82220.81640.81340.8086
eur/jpy111.17109.59108.64106.74105.79104.21
gbp/jpy136.19134.00132.68130.04128.72126.53

EUR/USD: There is no need for the MS1 at 1.3233 to be hit, but it still could. Regardless, the pair is getting ready to correct the strong UP that ended last week, as it heads to 1.3149. If that level is broken, then it prepares for a strong move that could take it to 1.3084, which is just below the 4-hour cloud
MT, the move north is expected to challenge the weekly kijun at 1.3435. Only a break under 1.2994 changes this view.

USD/JPY: This pair should be headed to the WS1/ 4-hour kijun combo at 81.04 to start the week. That should become a decision point. Most likely that area will be broken, as this week should mark the pair’s reversal.

GBP/USD: Key R area is 1.6150. That will contain for awhile, as last week's strong move will be corrected. Watch for the correction take the pair to the WR1 at 1.6024. That will be a deciding point. A break of that point and there will make for a strong move to 1.5932, the WS2. Unless we have a complete trend change, the WS2 will hold and then see a strong move north. If 1.5932 contains, then we could see a move to the bottom of the monthly cloud at 1.6432.

USD/CHF: The ideal scenario is to see this move continue south to the cluster S event at .9037, which includes my WS1, and then there will be plenty of room for a recovery, as we see the WR2 hit at .9175.

AUD/USD: After failing to break key level at 1.0304, with no attempt to the next main support area at 1.0224, the pair made a sharp break north. Starting next week, watch for a slight correction to the bottom of the 4-hour cloud at 1.0338, and even allowing for a spike to the WS1 at 1.0324. After the correction is complete, there should be a move to the WR2 at 1.0470 that will also open it up for a move even higher in following weeks.

USD/CAD: With this pair getting scared out of the daily cloud last week, the move south should continue. Any recovery should be contained at the 4-hour kijun at .9947, and then we see the move to the WS2 at .9829.

NZD/USD: This pair got plundered at the end of the week and is still seeking to regain some of the losses. Look for the recovery to continue to no higher than the WR1 at .8216. MY, it appears the pair is headed to .7979, but this week should be limited to the WS2 at .8106.

EUR/GBP: The suspense is over. This pair finally made it to the bottom of the monthly cloud at .8167. Needless to say, the pair is at a very critical point. It is the proverbial decision point. One thing looks certain, and that is this pair seems to be nearing the point of a longer term reversal. For this week, any move south should be limited to the WS21 at .8164. The move north could see the WR2 at .8252, possibly higher.

EUR/JPY: A very strong cluster event to the south awaits at 107.23. Given the fact the WS1 is 106.74, and we had a strong move against the trend last week, then the cluster event could be broken. If the cluster S is broken, then contains the move back north, then the entire correction is over. If the area contains, then we can put 108.81 on the radar for the week.

GBP/JPY: A very strong cluster event to the south awaits at 130.66. Given the fact the WS1 is 130.04, and we had a strong move against the trend last week, then the cluster event could be broken. If the cluster S is broken, then contains the move back north, then the entire correction is over. If the area contains, then we can put 132.55 on the radar for the week.

This pair is ready for a strong move south. ST cluster S is at 1.3082. That will be broken in favor of a further drop to the daily tenken (not seen on this 4H chart) at 1.3052. Treat the daily as a decision point. If taken out, then it moves to challenge the recent dip at 1.2928.


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Hi 4x
Looks interesting, it will be kind of you to post some ichi charts to go with the forecasts. It will help enlighten some of us about ichimoku and it's uses etc., if you can/care to.

Thank you.

Sorry I posted before you put up the chart!

Leokira, my Weekly Forecast and Weekly Review will never contain charts as they are the forecasts on the markets for the week.
All of that was posted late this week, but that is because I just opened this new thread. Once I'm on the other side as all the weekend festivities, then I'm open to about anything-- TA's, ichimoku or any other indicator, certain markets you like that I did not post on.
Rest assured, you will see plenty of charts from me.

Hi 4xpipcounter,

Good to see you posting again. All the best.

FX4

Thank you I will be watching

Thank-you, FX

As per the post in my Weekly Forecast, I said that 107.23 cluster S could contain, then we put 108.81 on the radar. It's not confirmed yet that is has contained, but the chart shows the strong move that is already taking place. I still favored in my WF that that area get broken, and that view goes unchanged until it is confirmed otherwise.

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I don't want to post another chart of this pair just to post one. You get the picture. The WS1 has been hit and broken. The pair has traveled inside the 4-hour cloud. The next key area of support will be my WS2 at 105.93.
MT, this pair is headed to 104.22, and then possibly lower.


[quote=4xpipcounter;5599113]As per the post in my Weekly Forecast, I said that 107.23 cluster S could contain, then we put 108.81 on the radar. It's not confirmed yet that is has contained, but the chart shows the strong move that is already taking place. I still favored in my WF that that area get broken, and that view goes unchanged until it is confirmed otherwise.

Please refer to post #5. The move on this has already begun as you can tell by this chart.

Part of the goal of this thread is to repudiate any notions that indicators do not work. My methodology is indicator enriched. I'll assure anyone reading this that it is not the indicators that don't work. It is how you use them.

BTW, if the mods or someone else more knowledgeable than me is reading this. I opened this thread in trading discussions, and the mods moved over here to trading journals. I'll assure you this thread is not going to be a journal. After my forecasting has proven itself to everyone, I would like to see this thread be a proactive conversation on trading, indicators, and the different markets. If I can put a chart to it, then I can talk about it. So, if someone can tell me how to get this thread back to trading trading discussions, I'll appreciate it.


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I refer to my Weekly Forecast often. Being the new guy on the block, I want to give the readers of this thread something to look forward to each week. I also feel I need to establish the legitimacy of the WF and that it is not just a bunch of empty rhetoric.

In the WF I referred to the fact the 1.3233. It has that yellow line on top, my MS1. The chart tells the story. It was not hit, and also as per the WF it is headed to the cluster event at 1.3086. That will be at least temporary S.


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I mentioned in my WF the ideal scenario would be for the down move that ended last week to continue to the WS1 at .9037, and then see the reversal take the pair to the WR2 at .9175. The ideal scenario did not happen, as there was not much of a continuation in the DOWN. The chart shows we are only 4 pips away from the projected point.


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As per request:

This market is kind of dicey. Momentum has given out n the monthly. It hit the bottom of the weekly charts at 1614, and there is bearish implications on the daily. The bias is the bottom of the weekly cloud gives out, and we fall to 1503. Any weekly close below 1614 confirms.

The next 4-hour close we see under the MR1 at 1.6124 should mark the official move as outlined in my Weekly Forecast. The dip, so far this week, has been 1.6075, but needless to say, that is now far enough, and this pair has some traveling south to do before this week is out.

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I do not know how to contact the moderators. I've posted in this thread to move it back to "trading discussions". This is not a journal. There is no journalizing any trades. I simply forecast the markets, accurately, and place my trades in accordance with my forecasts. With an occasional exception, I will not be posting my trades.
Once again, I'm asking the moderators to move this thread back to "trading discussions", or at least give me a reason why this action was taken.
Tonight's (Circa Midnight GMT) Midweek Review/ Forecast will be my last under the label of "trading journals".

My Weekly Review/ Forecast is coming up earlier than expected. It will be my last post in this thread unless the mods do something about moving my thread back to "Trading Discussions." Again, this is not some sort of trading journal. This forecasting of any and all markets. This is practical and principled TA trading methods and indicators.
Okay, that being said I hope you enjoy my midweek pit stop.

EUR/USD: There is no need for the MS1 at 1.3233 to be hit, but it still could. Regardless, the pair is getting ready to correct the strong UP that ended last week, as it heads to 1.3149. If that level is broken, then it prepares for a strong move that could take it to 1.3084, which is just below the 4-hour cloud
MT, the move north is expected to challenge the weekly kijun at 1.3435. Only a break under 1.2994 changes this view.

We had one sharp move south during Tokyo and London on Monday, then a sharp return gave back all the southerly advances. 1.3233 still contains, so we have 3 days to get 5 days worth of southerly sunshine.

USD/JPY: This pair should be headed to the WS1/ 4-hour kijun combo at 81.04 to start the week. That should become a decision point. Most likely that area will be broken, as this week should mark the pair’s reversal.

The pair has been reversing, as expected. 81.04 broken, as expected. The flight south is still booked.

GBP/USD: Key R area is 1.6150. That will contain for awhile, as last week's strong move will be corrected. Watch for the correction take the pair to the WR1 at 1.6024. That will be a deciding point. A break of that point and there will make for a strong move to 1.5932, the WS2. Unless we have a complete trend change, the WS2 will hold and then see a strong move north. If 1.5932 contains, then we could see a move to the bottom of the monthly cloud at 1.6432.

The key R level was hit, then a strong spike reversal, which is showing its ability to contain. The WS2 is still on the radar.

USD/CHF: The ideal scenario is to see this move continue south to the cluster S event at .9037, which includes my WS1, and then there will be plenty of room for a recovery, as we see the WR2 hit at .9175.

We have come 4 pips within the WR2. The WS1 has not yet been hit. Without looking at them, it means the Swiss crosses could get crushed.

AUD/USD: After failing to break key level at 1.0304, with no attempt to the next main support area at 1.0224, the pair made a sharp break north. Starting next week, watch for a slight correction to the bottom of the 4-hour cloud at 1.0338, and even allowing for a spike to the WS1 at 1.0324. After the correction is complete, there should be a move to the WR2 at 1.0470 that will also open it up for a move even higher in following weeks.

There was no slight correction, as the dip has been 1.0247. It will be interesting to see if this pair is going to finally break through the weekly cloud. If I’m wrong on something, I might as well go all the way.

USD/CAD: With this pair getting scared out of the daily cloud last week, the move south should continue. Any recovery should be contained at the 4-hour kijun at .9947, and then we see the move to the WS2 at .9829.

The WS1 has already been hit at exactly .9875. Some more downside pleasure is still brewing.

NZD/USD: This pair got plundered at the end of the week and is still seeking to regain some of the losses. Look for the recovery to continue to no higher than the WR1 at .8216. MY, it appears the pair is headed to .7979, but this week should be limited to the WS2 at .8106.

The route for this one has already been complete. .8187 is the peak and we have already dipped to .8087.

EUR/GBP: The suspense is over. This pair finally made it to the bottom of the monthly cloud at .8167. Needless to say, the pair is at a very critical point. It is the proverbial decision point. One thing looks certain, and that is this pair seems to be nearing the point of a longer term reversal. For this week, any move south should be limited to the WS1 at .8164. The move north could see the WR2 at .8252, possibly higher.

Another tight week for this pair, up to this point. There seems to be more upside to explore, as the peak is only .8188 to this point.

EUR/JPY: A very strong cluster event to the south awaits at 107.23. Given the fact the WS1 is 106.74, and we had a strong move against the trend last week, then the cluster event could be broken. If the cluster S is broken, then contains the move back north, then the entire correction is over. If the area contains, then we can put 108.81 on the radar for the week.

We already had a move to 106.30. The cluster event at 107.23 has contained to this point, as the peak on the return is 107.30. I don’t like the formation of Tuesday’s candle bouncing off the tenken the way it did. It leaves some doubt for the move further south.

GBP/JPY: A very strong cluster event to the south awaits at 130.66. Given the fact the WS1 is 130.04, and we had a strong move against the trend last week, then the cluster event could be broken. If the cluster S is broken, then contains the move back north, then the entire correction is over. If the area contains, then we can put 132.55 on the radar for the week.

We already had a move to 130.18. The cluster event at 130.66 did not contain, so it leaves doubt whether or not the move south will continue.