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Attachments: Price action is dumb, and you're lazy for thinking otherwise
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Price action is dumb, and you're lazy for thinking otherwise

  • #481
  • Dec 31, 2011 4:11pm Dec 31, 2011 4:11pm
Quoting unknown4x
Yeah I'm not saying any indicator is wrong. Were just a few examples. It doesn't matter which one you use. They all follow pretty much two cases: averages or ohcl values and just display it in a different way. MAs are actually the most powerful indicator you can have for several reasons.

Good example was EURUSD on Friday. Choppy as hell and barely made any pips while money flows showed you clearly that the first one to break out was USDJPY, next one GBPUSD and last one AUDUSD. EUR was getting crushed by pretty much every opposite cross out there....
great post, I would like to add, indis needed? 0%. Priceaction? 100%
  • #482
  • Dec 31, 2011 4:54pm Dec 31, 2011 4:54pm
Quoting jmflukeiii
No relevance to who? If I make money consistently from looking only at a 1 second chart, a 1 range chart, or a 1 tick chart, I think that's pretty damn relevant.

This much I will say to superdezign. If he cannot ascertain the markets objectives from a 5 minute chart which I consider an ideal venue, he has a long way to go. However, once he gets there, it will all become clear so keep asking these questions as it is the right track to be going. Develop ones innate skill of insight as well. Understanding charts is an epiphany.
The road to pipland is arduous and fraught with challenge.
  • #483
  • Jan 1, 2012 8:38pm Jan 1, 2012 8:38pm
Quoting jag1966
great post, I would like to add, indis needed? 0%. Priceaction? 100%

Thank you

We could now go into - Do OCHL values lag exactly the same like MAs? Is order book data the only realtime source? What is real priceaction?

But i think we agree on the -for this thread- more important part.
  • #484
  • Jan 1, 2012 8:44pm Jan 1, 2012 8:44pm
Quoting traider
This much I will say to superdezign. If he cannot ascertain the markets objectives from a 5 minute chart which I consider an ideal venue, he has a long way to go. However, once he gets there, it will all become clear so keep asking these questions as it is the right track to be going. Develop ones innate skill of insight as well. Understanding charts is an epiphany.
Exactly. Arguing that small timeframes are just noise just tells one thing: the person stating it has not understood what the charts show him. M1, M5, D1 it doesn't matter at all. All the charts show the same information. If i zoom out of M1 5x i get the same like M5, i zoom out more i got M15. Proper charting tools or even MT5 don't even know things like the daily timeframe. All charts are calculated out of tick or M1 data.

M5 is definitly a very good timeframe to spot pretty much every intraday move be it brakeouts for 15-50-150 pips or continuation/retraces after those moves no matter how big they were. It does not work of course if a green M5 candle is an indicator for you to buy. But then again that doesn't really work on any TF in a way that is profitable beyond those few % the bank gives you on your savings.
  • #485
  • Edited 6:24am Apr 21, 2012 5:58am | Edited 6:24am
Quoting superdezign
Well

Now that I have your attention hear this: Using price action as a method of entry/exit is ridiculous, You can't use a single variable to predict itself. Technical analysis falls under the same category of invalidated trading.

Every trader I have talked to who is a technical trader has been unable to answer this one simple question:

Why does you system work?

I can tell you exactly why the way I trade is the way I trade. I can tell you why it works, the principals it is based off of, and why it will remain robust. Every move I...
T.A is better than F,A The Mean Reversion is all that it has. they eventually return back to the mean . principal is based on the market. the price reflects all relevant information Price action and T.A looks at the history of a security's trading pattern rather than external drivers such as economic, fundamental and news events. why do you think investors collectively tend toward patterned behavior it is because price action repeat its self . Look at any daily chart and then tell me does it not? price action is excellent The trader observes the relative size, shape, position, growth (when watching the current real-time price) and volume (optionally) of the bars on an OHLC bar or candlestick chart, starting as simple as a single bar, most often combined with chart formations found in broader technical analysis such as moving averages, trend lines or trading ranges.you have no idea what you are taking about are u a fundamental trader? if yes I just do not know how you trade with it even fundamental people require charts to open up entry point plot important level and so on history tends to repeat itself! there is no holy grail. nothing is 100% fool proof but as a T.A the rule is to go with a system that gives you the fewest exception and maximum winning probability

http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/209/examplew.gif/
  • #486
  • Edited 8:02am Apr 21, 2012 7:44am | Edited 8:02am
Quoting saiftauheed
T.A is better than F,A
http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/209/examplew.gif/
you do realize that the best long-term performance was achieved by an investor (doing fundamental analysis), whose name is warren buffett (3d richest guy on the planet). This alone speaks for the strength and robustness of fundamental analysis.
I actually have never seen a pure TA trader in the forbes list.
  • #487
  • Apr 21, 2012 10:58am Apr 21, 2012 10:58am
Quoting Custos
you do realize that the best long-term performance was achieved by an investor (doing fundamental analysis), whose name is warren buffett (3d richest guy on the planet). This alone speaks for the strength and robustness of fundamental analysis.
I actually have never seen a pure TA trader in the forbes list.
quite right.. I think one would be insane to not pay attention to FA.. Use both in conjuction with each other.. it will give you a better outlook on what's actually happening in the market
  • #488
  • Apr 21, 2012 11:23am Apr 21, 2012 11:23am
First, I did not read this entire thread.
Second, I think I might like sticking around here.

Let me also say before I begin that everything I say is always with a vein of respect, so please be mindful of that when it sound like I'm ranting, because everything you guys have to say against TA's, technical indicators, etc is so easy to repudiate.
Why?
Because I'm a full-time trader, I use exclusive technical indicators with my TA method. I can tell you exactly the why and wherefore of me entering and exiting a market. My TA's work on every market. Saif knows me real well, and he has seen it in action. I even use my TA's to forecast the weather. It's the truth!
Am I cocky? Not really, because I can prove everything I'm saying. I would love to post my Weekly Forecast right here in your thread just to make my point. If the op gives me the okay I will. Then next week at this time, I will post my Weekly Review. That reviews my Weekly Forecast just to hold my feet in the fire and hold me accountable.

Superdezign, I hope I answered your comment.

One more thing. I will never say anything against FA's. If you guys trade using them and your successful, that's fine. It is a fact that there are far more successful traders using TA's as opposed to FA's.

Also, the name of this thread could not be further from the truth. There is nothing lazy or dumb about TA's or price action. Just that very comment blows my mind. I'm one trader who is not lazy. This is a business, and it is a FT business. Lazy people do not make it in this business.
Dumb? I'll admit this. Beyond being a chartist and mathematician, I am not the brightest light bulb in the living room. I sill find the comment insulting to fellow traders.

Okay, let me remind you of my Weekly Forecast. I will post it in this thread if given permission.

Originally Posted by superdezign
Well

Now that I have your attention hear this: Using price action as a method of entry/exit is ridiculous, You can't use a single variable to predict itself. Technical analysis falls under the same category of invalidated trading.

Every trader I have talked to who is a technical trader has been unable to answer this one simple question:

Why does you system work?

I can tell you exactly why the way I trade is the way I trade. I can tell you why it works, the principals it is based off of, and why it will remain robust. Every move I...
  • #489
  • Edited 12:04pm Apr 21, 2012 11:53am | Edited 12:04pm
Quoting Custos
you do realize that the best long-term performance was achieved by an investor (doing fundamental analysis), whose name is warren buffett (3d richest guy on the planet). This alone speaks for the strength and robustness of fundamental analysis.
I actually have never seen a pure TA trader in the forbes list.
Well yes warren buffet let us assume he is in his 80's.Considering he was a pure F.A and we also know that he bought his first stock in his high school around that time the International economy was developing. and today is what we call is well developed country.if you bought any of a single share that time you would be a millionaire right now. considering the coca cola . if you would have bought "1" share worth $40 in the 19's you would be sitting on a $5 million . If any one of us would have been born that time and bought even a single share we and our family and our coming generation would be digging gold because we are living in a developed nation and this can't get any better but just run fine(yeah maybe after 2 or 3 decade we'll have a better position) The problem stands we weren't lucky to born at those times! I am not even 1% F.A so I don't know anything about and I don't care what the world is doing but that's not the point for what I know today you have all these recession and euro debt and usa raising there debt limit and all these unemployment rates and gross domestic product, interest rate cuts, inflation and etc etc are they doing any good ? they are sometimes better sometimes worse but at the end of the day the countries moving on with all the riot . Look at the S&p500 after 3 years what percentage of long term gain it gave? if I am not wrong its 0. I am not saying anything bad about F.A Like 4xpip said if you are good with it then its great but I just find it not working for me even 0.1%

"I actually have never seen a pure TA trader in the forbes list"
I believe professional TA'S are good with a $ million a year - LOL . If the guy above me wanted he could be there on the forbes list - Trust me he is a 101% technical analyst
  • #490
  • Apr 21, 2012 11:54am Apr 21, 2012 11:54am
Quoting Dyekid217
quite right.. I think one would be insane to not pay attention to FA.. Use both in conjuction with each other.. it will give you a better outlook on what's actually happening in the market
So you mean I am insane ? LOL
  • #491
  • Apr 21, 2012 11:55am Apr 21, 2012 11:55am
Custos, your rationale is slightly eskewed.

Warren Buffet did not make his riches entirely off the markets.
I'd venture a safe guess that is lot size proportioned to his capital is microscopic. He can open a position based on his conjecture of where a market is headed, then hold it and walk away. The position could move against him for several months, and then cash it out once it turns around and still make several million on the position.
Proportionately, everyone reading this post can do the same thing. Open an account with $10,000, and then put 1 micro lot on the trade. The problem is no real money will be made. After all, 200 pips equals $20.
So we move up. Put 1 lot on $1 million, and then you make $2,000 on the same trade. The problem there is most of you do not have $1 million, and if you did, you probably would not want to trade it that way.

Enter Warren Buffet: He can take $1 billion to trade with, which is still a very small percentage of his total wealth, put 1,000 lots on the trade and make $2 million. He can trade that way.

Having said that, WB is not a trader, as per se. There is much assimilation before he places a trade. I sincerely doubt he is a trader like we know traders. He just has the money to throw around. The $1 billion is like monopoly money to him. He can have extremely punitive gains and make big money.

You have not seen a TA trader on Forbes 500, but then you have not seen an FA trader on Forbes 500 (Don't jump to nay conclusions. Keep reading.).
It think I made the point. WB did not make it off of his trading, but his business expertise. This is why the comment is flawed.
The scary thought is all TA traders have the power in their mouse to bankrupt any broker. I could post my equity curve (I'll never post personal financial information.). It shows 150%+ made in the last 2 months (Time of my last withdraw. All on TA's, incidentally--lol.). My question is how long do you think I'm going to get away with making those kinds of gains when the broker won't notice? I never could make those gains without my charts.
Simply put, the brokers don't have enough money to pass around. IMO, the only reason we have leverage is because of so many losers in this business.
Based on sole trading expertise, it is almost impossible for anyone to advance to Forbes 500, because brokers don't have $10 billion to finance those excellent trading skills.


Quoting Custos
you do realize that the best long-term performance was achieved by an investor (doing fundamental analysis), whose name is warren buffett (3d richest guy on the planet). This alone speaks for the strength and robustness of fundamental analysis.
I actually have never seen a pure TA trader in the forbes list.
  • #492
  • Apr 21, 2012 11:55am Apr 21, 2012 11:55am
Quoting 4xpipcounter
First, I did not read this entire thread.
Second, I think I might like sticking around here.

Let me also say before I begin that everything I say is always with a vein of respect, so please be mindful of that when it sound like I'm ranting, because everything you guys have to say against TA's, technical indicators, etc is so easy to repudiate.
Why?
Because I'm a full-time trader, I use exclusive technical indicators with my TA method. I can tell you exactly the why and wherefore of me entering and exiting a market. My TA's work on every...
I didn't know you joined here 6 years ago Good to see you
  • #493
  • Apr 21, 2012 12:04pm Apr 21, 2012 12:04pm
This is why trading is so personal. Personally, I don't have the nerves to trade off a 5-min chart. But if anyone uses it for consistent gains, then they are immediately placed in the top 10% of all traders, because 90% bankrupt their rolls.
The point you make is 100% relevant.


Quoting jmflukeiii
No relevance to who? If I make money consistently from looking only at a 1 second chart, a 1 range chart, or a 1 tick chart, I think that's pretty relevant.
  • #494
  • Apr 21, 2012 12:05pm Apr 21, 2012 12:05pm
LOL, I joined but never posted.

Quoting saiftauheed
I didn't know you joined here 6 years ago Good to see you
  • #495
  • Apr 21, 2012 12:08pm Apr 21, 2012 12:08pm
Quoting saiftauheed
Well yes warren buffet let us assume he is in his 80's.Considering he was a pure F.A and we also know that he bought his first stock in his high school around that time the International economy was developing. and today is what we call is well developed country.if you bought any of a single share that time you would be a millionaire right now. considering the coca cola . if you would have bought "1" share worth $40 in the 19's you would be sitting on a $5 million . If any one of us would have been born that time and bought even a single share...
funny statement. I read somehwere that only around 10% or so of the companies listed in the 30s are still listed on the stockmarkets today. The rest went bankrupt or merged or whatever. All in all, if you didn't know which stocks would be still around in the next 80 years, then you would very likely still have lost, except you bought into an index of course. The world also had amazing problems the last hundred years. Two world wars, the great depression..., and still here we are much more developed than ever before and an amazing wealth creation. Why should it be any different for the next hundred years?
Yeah 3 years is nothing in the world of investing, also you forget that investors are not entirely dependent on stock market gains, but also on dividend payouts. So even if the stock markets did nothing, you still would be able to earn a return on investment.

Yeah, all these arguments with, that you know a guy who COULD be in the forbes list if he WANTED to means nothing. Either he is on it or not. That's what counts. And to date I think there is not even one pure TA trader in the forbes list.
But if anybody knows one, then please post it, would be interested.

All this makes me conclude that while TA might be effective in the short-term, FA is way better in the long-term.
  • #496
  • Apr 21, 2012 12:14pm Apr 21, 2012 12:14pm
Quoting 4xpipcounter
Custos, your rationale is slightly eskewed.

Warren Buffet did not make his riches entirely off the markets.
I'd venture a safe guess that is lot size proportioned to his capital is microscopic. He can open a position based on his conjecture of where a market is headed, then hold it and walk away. The position could move against him for several months, and then cash it out once it turns around and still make several million on the position.
Proportionately, everyone reading this post can do the same thing. Open an account with $10,000, and then...
Your argument is flawed as well. You probably know that warren buffett started with $100.000 in his 20s. So at that time he also did not make "massive" gains like he is making these days. But over the decades he got into the billions through yearly compounding.
And don't quote me wrong, I didn't say I haven't seen a TA trader in forbes. I said I haven't see a pure TA trader in forbes. Paul tudor jones is very technical but uses macroeconomic analysis in all his trades.

The last argument of yours is flawed as well. If I can make big returns and have built my account up, then I can just open my own brokerage or bank and trade through that medium.
  • #497
  • Apr 21, 2012 12:22pm Apr 21, 2012 12:22pm
Quoting Custos
funny statement. I read somehwere that only around 10% or so of the companies listed in the 30s are still listed on the stockmarkets today. The rest went bankrupt or merged or whatever. All in all, if you didn't know which stocks would be still around in the next 80 years, then you would very likely still have lost, except you bought into an index of course. The world also had amazing problems the last hundred years. Two world wars, the great depression..., and still here we are much more developed than ever before and an amazing wealth creation....
haha funny but true well lets say he was smart or lucky enough in choosing his stock list and index or commodites.I do not know about dividend payouts . the options might have been there but limited those times. well we certainly over the next 100 years I don't know whats gonna happen world war - 3 ?wiping each other's (you know what - lol) a greater depression who knows? we won't be alive to see it anyway Its not an argument man its just a point to justify T.A or F.A in any case works on longer term or forever if you are good with it , successful with it nothing is dumb, what may me dumb for one maybe a fortune for another you know its just the trader with what he's comfortable with be it anything T.A ,FA or mixed like I said above fewest exceptions to the rule and maximum probabilty of win
  • #498
  • Apr 21, 2012 12:42pm Apr 21, 2012 12:42pm
if every post of this thread could be a chart candle the result would be a whipsaw pattern for sure...lol
Never again will fade the trend
  • #499
  • Apr 21, 2012 1:32pm Apr 21, 2012 1:32pm
Good point! The best line yet in this thread.

Actually, I'm of the adage to back up anything I say. So when I come firing away with bold TA statements, I back it up, and plan on doing so in another thread in this forum.


Quoting swingfiddle
if every post of this thread could be a chart candle the result would be a whipsaw pattern for sure...lol
  • #500
  • Apr 21, 2012 11:38pm Apr 21, 2012 11:38pm
I don't get the whole obsessions with arguing that TA can't predict price. I am a newbies but I thought the whole point of trading is nothing can predict what happens. To be able to predict means being correct 100% of the time. Isn't trading just a game of probability? Yes it can either go up or down so it should be 50/50 but we use TA to find spots of higher probability (>50%) so for it to work it doesn't need to be right all the time just more often than not, assuming at least 1:1 RR.

For example I am learning supply and demand trading but I don't blindly believe that the level would bounce every time, it's just an area that had evident of imbalance showing that there is a largeer than 50% CHANCE it will hold and I believe that's an edge, just like how the casino earns in the long run by just a small % of house edge.
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