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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #33,041
  • Apr 20, 2012 3:22pm Apr 20, 2012 3:22pm
Quoting Fana
Hi Bert. It is such a fun this test... But at 75page... money...
Let me give an easy test, need reading the following posts:


Snowballing
Post #454, 465, 180, 778, 851, 1065, 1187

Attack/Rescue:
Post #840, 851, 875, 813,

Mindset
Post #421, 437,746, 1084, 1193, 1198, 1205

Flow:
Post# 67, 555, 1065

Time Frames:
Post #51, 59, 555

Levels:
Post #33, 59, 499

Profit/Losses:
Post #33, 69, 771

Risk Appetite:
Post #65, 89
  • #33,042
  • Edited 7:55pm Apr 20, 2012 7:14pm | Edited 7:55pm
friendly warning

http://complaintcafe.com/complaint/B...am/oanda/1309/

"....... is a bucket shop."

http://www.tradinggraphs.com/trading...oker-is-an-ecn

"manages forex accounts on behalf of investors...."

http://www.financial-spread-betting....est-crash.html

http://forexpeacemaking.wordpress.co...anda-scammers/

God, is there a real retail broker out there?
  • #33,043
  • Apr 20, 2012 7:17pm Apr 20, 2012 7:17pm
Quoting phil13
Hi bruceforex


There are lots of demo accounts available, just search 'demo forex account'.


I started off live but moved demo as I did not see the point of even losing mini or micro lots when I could demo for free.


The way I saw it was if you can not consistently (more than 3 months running) make pips in demo then you have no chance live, when I transferred over to live I did not find it a problem at all, I think this was due to the fact that I treated the demo as my money and only put the same amount of credit in the account as I was...

yes you are right ,,,,,,,,phil13

about ;; its better to make mistakes in demo, then all you will have lost is your time.

forgive me for posting suggest real account
probably because of the background of my life is full of speculation
so just only for me maybe,,,
demo I almost never do

regards
suma
  • #33,044
  • Apr 20, 2012 8:51pm Apr 20, 2012 8:51pm
Quoting fti
friendly warning

http://complaintcafe.com/complaint/B...am/oanda/1309/

"....... is a bucket shop."

http://www.tradinggraphs.com/trading...oker-is-an-ecn

"manages forex accounts on behalf of investors...."

http://www.financial-spread-betting....est-crash.html

http://forexpeacemaking.wordpress.co...anda-scammers/

God, is there a real retail broker out there?
thank you for the warning my friend

regards
  • #33,045
  • Apr 20, 2012 9:14pm Apr 20, 2012 9:14pm
Quoting fti
friendly warning

http://complaintcafe.com/complaint/B...am/oanda/1309/

"....... is a bucket shop."

http://www.tradinggraphs.com/trading...oker-is-an-ecn

"manages forex accounts on behalf of investors...."

http://www.financial-spread-betting....est-crash.html

http://forexpeacemaking.wordpress.co...anda-scammers/

God, is there a real retail broker out there?
Thanks Fti. I have 2 accounts with Oanda. Makes me wonder.
  • #33,046
  • Apr 20, 2012 9:32pm Apr 20, 2012 9:32pm
Quoting fti

God, is there a real retail broker out there?
NO.


I've never had a problem withdrawing funds from OANDA, but yes they slip, lag and shade prices all the time, just like all the others, it's not hard to spot..... their shading is a tell actually.

Everyone wants the big bank red carpet treatment, but also the ability to have instant access to every twitch and bump the market gives, let them see what they get trying to dump a yard or two at a moments notice.

Most grip about their wide spreads during new releases, but after they were burned by straddling a few times I probably would do the same. Overall I've never found a perfect broker, but they are stable and after a while you learn what to expect.

Better the devil you know than the one you don't.

fwiw.
  • #33,047
  • Edited 3:11am Apr 21, 2012 1:41am | Edited 3:11am
Quoting auxesis
NO.


I've never had a problem withdrawing funds from OANDA, but yes they slip, lag and shade prices all the time, just like all the others, it's not hard to spot..... their shading is a tell actually.

Everyone wants the big bank red carpet treatment, but also the ability to have instant access to every twitch and bump the market gives, let them see what they get trying to dump a yard or two at a moments notice.

Most grip about their wide spreads during new releases, but after they were burned by straddling a few times I probably would...
aux

The Market risk is a factor of the business, characteristic depends on liquidity. Oanda in my opinion is the amongst the best of those i had tried out.

My problem is credit risk due to unreasonable technicalites, that they not want to remedy. Personally i feel that, since all conditions are being met for withdrawal of funds. Citing that the destination party's swift code reads invalid on their system is a very lame excuse. Can just contact the bank concerned. A tier 1 institution?But to deny the withdrawal request? Are they unwilling or unable?

Then i asked if their CEO would kindly help another old and retired CEO/ED out to navigate the issue. And all i get is that they have "funds peeps" to this task. Of course i understand that. Thats why i asked if they could ask their management to look into the problem. Blocked by operations peeps? If I could i would fly down there sort it out with them.

Then without mechanism to protect retail customers rights and moneys. The credit and counter-party risk is too high and retail forex is for me not a viable avenue for investments.

Market risk is already very high, but with mass participation of honourable institutions, the industry may mature if the backbone liquidity is robust.
And if there is watchdog mechanism that will audit for price infractions.
However if no international counter-party risk mechanism is put in place, then this infancy retail OTC industry structure probably will not survive to mature.

So sad, but not so unlike eurozone systemic failures, the retail forex OTC core operating structure is unstable and may fail when stressed. At least, the eurozone has governments and vested interest remedies. Which is more than what can be said for the retail business. When stressed all parties will just stampede for exit only.

I will only participate in nickel and dimes, if i have to in retail forex.
So is seems is no one can depend on it for source of income or profession yet.
Just for a hobby and gaming.
But as gaming, maybe the casino has better odds, and more entertainment value.

regards

PS: please be aware tha Dbfx had already exited the business. What did they see?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/DBFX
  • #33,048
  • Apr 21, 2012 1:57am Apr 21, 2012 1:57am
chief problem still persisting with oanda?

regards
  • #33,049
  • Apr 21, 2012 3:54am Apr 21, 2012 3:54am
Quoting sumakianlee
yes you are right ,,,,,,,,phil13

about ;; its better to make mistakes in demo, then all you will have lost is your time.

forgive me for posting suggest real account
probably because of the background of my life is full of speculation
so just only for me maybe,,,
demo I almost never do

regards
suma

Hi sumakianlee


my friend, please there is nothing to forgive, you are just as entitled to post your opinion/experience as I am, it is for the person who asked the question to make his/her own mind up as to what they think is best for them and maybe take into consideration some/all of the answers they receive.


Regards


Phil.


p.s thanks for the v.
-be careful about what you allow to be put in your mind-
  • #33,050
  • Apr 21, 2012 5:28am Apr 21, 2012 5:28am
One thing you can't practice with a demo account though is the psychological aspect related to trading with your own real money. So a lot of people with huge success on demo accounts fail miserably when attempting to move from demo to live. I know, because I did it my self.
  • #33,051
  • Apr 21, 2012 6:55am Apr 21, 2012 6:55am
Quoting espen
One thing you can't practice with a demo account though is the psychological aspect related to trading with your own real money. So a lot of people with huge success on demo accounts fail miserably when attempting to move from demo to live. I know, because I did it my self.
I went from a decade of real to the current, several years of demo/simulator, so I know enough of real to figure it in demo. Go to real first, and for most, you get burned, and maybe even start and reinforce bad trading habits.

Demo drops enough psychological to get one's edge going. From there, I'd say then do pennies to test the waters, and finally a real trade or two. Afterward, study psychology of that real trade profusely, and mimic it to a degree in demo/simulator. Much safer.
  • #33,052
  • Apr 21, 2012 7:13am Apr 21, 2012 7:13am
Quoting ha-pattern
I went from a decade of real to the current, several years of demo/simulator, so I know enough of real to figure it in demo. Go to real first, and for most, you get burned, and maybe even start and reinforce bad trading habits.

Demo drops enough psychological to get one's edge going. From there, I'd say then do pennies to test the waters, and finally a real trade or two. Afterward, study psychology of that real trade profusely, and mimic it to a degree in demo/simulator. Much safer.
I guess there are different ways of looking at it. But I tried demo for a couple of weeks when I first started and found that I couldn't take it seriously because it wasn't real money, thus my learning was slowed down a lot because I didn't get the experience I needed. After about two weeks I opened a live account with Instaforex just to trade with some real money, I deposited $20 and traded $0.01 a pip. Sure I lost a lot, after three months I had lost $20, but I gained a lot more valuable experience than I would trading multiple demo accounts for three months.

$20 is nothing compared to let's say $5,000 as a first deposit, and I don't think anyone would cry losing $20. But it still gives a lot more valuable experience than demo, and it makes the transition to trading more serious money a lot smoother. It surely did for me, but of course I can't speak for anyone else.
  • #33,053
  • Apr 21, 2012 7:16am Apr 21, 2012 7:16am
Quoting simpleman
Let me give an easy test, need reading the following posts:


Snowballing
Post #454, 465, 180, 778, 851, 1065, 1187

Attack/Rescue:
Post #840, 851, 875, 813,

Mindset
Post #421, 437,746, 1084, 1193, 1198, 1205

Flow:
Post# 67, 555, 1065

Time Frames:
Post #51, 59, 555

Levels:
Post #33, 59, 499

Profit/Losses:
Post #33, 69, 771

Risk Appetite:
Post #65, 89
Thanks Simpleman, i find these summaries very useful. especially as I'm still working my way through the thread.

As a signpost to others following, I can suggest a couple: the First lesson on Art of War starts #571 and Lesson Two starts #840 :-)

________________________________________________________
#1198 Look upon the donut not the hole
  • #33,054
  • Apr 21, 2012 7:30am Apr 21, 2012 7:30am
Quoting fti
aux

The Market risk is a factor of the business, characteristic depends on liquidity. Oanda in my opinion is the amongst the best of those i had tried out.

My problem is credit risk due to unreasonable technicalites, that they not want to remedy. Personally i feel that, since all conditions are being met for withdrawal of funds. Citing that the destination party's swift code reads invalid on their system is a very lame excuse. Can just contact the bank concerned. A tier 1 institution?But to deny the withdrawal request? Are they unwilling...
FTI,

Wow,That's upsetting to read. You're a better man that I. I can understand, wouldn't like it, if I was in that position, average punter needing help, I'm gonna get the standard response, pointing the way through my own efforts cut thru the red tape....... but as a rule of thumb, in my business those that are in the business take care of their own. I would have thought you would have found the same in that circumstance, that's a sign of disrespect from those who don't know any better.

Here in the US, there's no protection for accounts in retail Forex , they're trying to enact some, it's in it's infancy, but there's no stopping another REFCO, if it were to happen. you'd be lucky to get back pennies if your broker went down. And unless they've changed, even the SEC backed Stock/Futures boys like IB, TDA and the likes take you 3rd party for Spot Forex,,,,, I don't think the normal account protections would apply? Maybe I'm wrong here and things have changed over the last few years, someone can correct me? You can go the futures route but then you paying commissions as well as shade, doesn't work well with multiple entries and positions.

I agree with you, retail Forex in it's current state, isn't the basket for all your eggs. But what is???? The way the big boys are playing the game, I'm thinking my biggest broker the FED won't be able to protect my accounts when the house of cards falls.

A good well for clean water, Dirt and Seeds.

Regards,
  • #33,055
  • Apr 21, 2012 7:59am Apr 21, 2012 7:59am
Quoting espen
One thing you can't practice with a demo account though is the psychological aspect related to trading with your own real money. So a lot of people with huge success on demo accounts fail miserably when attempting to move from demo to live. I know, because I did it my self.
Demo accounts are there for a person to familiarize themselves with a new platform, or to work out the physical mechanics of their trading....... they can't truly replicate the emotional aspects one encounters when trading live with real money.

There's a lot of chartists out there but not a lot of traders.... Everybody has their own stress levels, and as long as you trade inside your risk appetite, your brain works semi-normal, step outside that level and your emotions really kick into gear..... it's the same as an athlete, they practice their plays at first without a defense, then against their own team mates, before stepping out into the game or like a golfer who practices his swing a million times, but until he tee's up the ball in the tournament does his emotions really kick in, adrenaline levels go up, muscles constrict.... etc. etc...

It's much the same for a trader, demo trading is a good idea, to practice your technique for a lack of better words, the trader is the one who can replicate those abilities under pressure..... you start small and slowly up size till you feel the pain.... when you start to rationalize bad behavior you're there.

From that point you can start to work on expanding your emotional stress levels and have some control over yourself, and just like the athlete, the veteran players are generally better than the rookies, if you can last long enough and keep playing the game. You have to be very honest and transparent with yourself to do this.

This thread is one of the best resources for understanding the problems for the inner traders.

regards,
  • #33,056
  • Edited 10:33am Apr 21, 2012 10:17am | Edited 10:33am
Quoting auxesis
Demo accounts are there for a person to familiarize themselves with a new platform, or to work out the physical mechanics of their trading....... they can't truly replicate the emotional aspects one encounters when trading live with real money...

This thread is one of the best resources for understanding the problems for the inner traders.
Everybody has their own stress levels, and as long as you trade inside your risk appetite, your brain works semi-normal, step outside that level and your emotions really kick into gear..... it's the same as an athlete, they practice their plays at first without a defense, then against their own team mates, before stepping out into the game or like a golfer who practices his swing a million times, but until he tee's up the ball in the tournament does his emotions really kick in, adrenaline levels go up, muscles constrict.... etc. etc...

It's much the same for a trader, demo trading is a good idea, to practice your technique for a lack of better words, the trader is the one who can replicate those abilities under pressure..... you start small and slowly up size till you feel the pain.... when you start to rationalize bad behavior you're there.

Very good advice Auxesis!!! I like your analogy about how athletes gear up mentally and emotionally for the real game.

I have also heard it said that when traders got a hold of the heart-mind issues that fti addresses in this thread, that was when things turned for them. A method is necessary yes, but the "other stuff" will make things fly like they should.

A question for you in light of the statement below...

you start small and slowly up size till you feel the pain.... when you start to rationalize bad behavior you're there.

I guess that is the "threshold" where you can start developing as a trader: when you start to "feel the pain" and also begin rationalizing bad behaviour. What are the tell-tale signs when a "chartist" has crossed the line and has "become a trader". We all know an increasing account balance is one , but, emotionally and mentally, what are the signs there? Thanks.



FX4...
Trade what you see, not what you think or feel. Let the market come to you.
  • #33,057
  • Apr 21, 2012 11:13am Apr 21, 2012 11:13am
Quoting fti
Hi All,
This will be erased when I am finished with it.
You wanna dance .
watch you chart and learn.

Time window for selling EUR/USD opens now.
watching levels 1.4825/00
Now waiting for GBP/USD to top out.
If no one is watching I shall stop commentary.
If watching just write watching in reply then delete.
its going to be long night here.
ossible window at 1.4840/55
sold level 1 at 1.4833
Noted zoran and Northpro.
notime to answer now, daancing

now preparing attack sequence level 2
attck sequense level 2 abandoned.
toping of GBP...
Hi Bert, I meant this post at page 75. Regards
  • #33,058
  • Apr 21, 2012 11:51am Apr 21, 2012 11:51am
Guys I took today Bloomberg assesment Test 155 questions in 180 minutes, I solved all of them, some of them I just guessed and was like yongest there as I shouldn't go, our dean doesn't let undegradute students, it's too hard. Only section I really liked and have good feeling was about financial markets and task sections, others were :S :S:S:S:S:S Now waitin for results, ifI do above average, maybe some financial firm offers me some job. Best were questions bout ethics, like you work 80 hours a week and they want to put you additional projects, what do you do? :::d:d:d: Or your wife book holidays, but you have some meeting Well it seems like 60hours a week, is like very very normal 80 hours per week is more for juniors suitable Guys is there any nirvana on this earth and nice relaxed life??????

https://www.bloomberginstitute.com/b...eQuestions.pdf
here is sample
  • #33,059
  • Apr 21, 2012 12:00pm Apr 21, 2012 12:00pm
Quoting mijamoto
Guys I took today Bloomberg assesment Test 155 questions in 180 minutes, I solved all of them, some of them I just guessed and was like yongest there as I shouldn't go, our dean doesn't let undegradute students, it's too hard. Only section I really liked and have good feeling was about financial markets and task sections, others were :S :S:S:S:S:S Now waitin for results, ifI do above average, maybe some financial firm offers me some job. Best were questions bout ethics, like you work 80 hours a week and they want to put you additional projects,...
"Do not be afraid, little flock, for your Father has been pleased to give you the kingdom. Sell your possessions and give to the poor. Provide purses for yourselves that will not wear out, a treasure in heaven that will not be exhausted, where no thief comes near and no moth destroys. For where your treasure is, there your heart will be also. Luke 12:32-34
  • #33,060
  • Apr 21, 2012 12:18pm Apr 21, 2012 12:18pm
Quoting Fana
Hi Bert, I meant this post at page 75. Regards
You are right about what you have said regarding this post.

regards
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