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Silent Service Method

  • #13,681
  • Apr 13, 2012 6:08pm Apr 13, 2012 6:08pm
NZD/USD......still interesting to me. Fell to retest the top of the triangle. Will be interesting to see if it bounces from here - which is what the classic set up would suggest. However, the market closing at the lows is a bit concerning.
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  • #13,682
  • Apr 16, 2012 7:40pm Apr 16, 2012 7:40pm
Quoting mypipbull
Looks a bit more interesting now....nice outside day pin bar even closer to the low

My problem with the bar is it's in traffic as it engulfs the last 4-5 bars, so not really a clear reversal bar.
I do like it to the long side here as the stop could go below the Jan2012 low however, i would suspect it will be choppy on the way up.
Another nice looking pin bar this time stretching down to the 0.82 level and then closing near its high, which is near the top of the recent range. This bar is more convincing and due to the resistance (multiple times now) at the 0.8275 area I would wait for a breakout above (standard pin bar trading). Buy stop orders are being placed today.
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  • #13,683
  • Apr 16, 2012 11:02pm Apr 16, 2012 11:02pm
Quoting mypipbull
Another nice looking pin bar this time stretching down to the 0.82 level and then closing near its high, which is near the top of the recent range. This bar is more convincing and due to the resistance (multiple times now) at the 0.8275 area I would wait for a breakout above (standard pin bar trading). Buy stop orders are being placed today.
Fair enough analysis in my opinion. I am also interested in going long USD/JPY again as we are approaching the 80 mark again. Will have to wait and see if I get supportive candles.....
  • #13,684
  • Apr 17, 2012 9:47pm Apr 17, 2012 9:47pm
New video on the blog.......
  • #13,685
  • Apr 18, 2012 9:30pm Apr 18, 2012 9:30pm
Quoting mypipbull
Another nice looking pin bar this time stretching down to the 0.82 level and then closing near its high, which is near the top of the recent range. This bar is more convincing and due to the resistance (multiple times now) at the 0.8275 area I would wait for a breakout above (standard pin bar trading). Buy stop orders are being placed today.
Perfect example of why you must wait for pin to break or else you hand a piece of your account over. This appears to be a convincing breakdown of 0.82 now, strong to the close. Longs are off the agenda now.
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  • #13,686
  • Apr 19, 2012 4:19am Apr 19, 2012 4:19am
Quoting mypipbull
Perfect example of why you must wait for pin to break or else you hand a piece of your account over. This appears to be a convincing breakdown of 0.82 now, strong to the close. Longs are off the agenda now.
This is a great post, and a lesson we should remind ourselves of eery once in a while......thanks for sharing!
  • #13,687
  • Apr 19, 2012 9:50pm Apr 19, 2012 9:50pm
New post on blog.....
  • #13,688
  • Apr 19, 2012 9:53pm Apr 19, 2012 9:53pm
Chris,

I've been thinking about your question about whether or not to do a signal service and I have to ask you the obvious question: Why?

Why would you want to subject yourself to the stress of having to make good calls every day/few days in order to justify whatever nominal fee you're planning to attach to the program? If the signals are good ones, why not just trade them yourself and make money off of them. I would imagine that since you're the one creating the signals you'll be the best at trading them. Do you really need the money produced by selling them and how much more lucrative is it to sell the signals vs. just trade them yourself?

But that naturally leads to the following question: If you think your signals are good and want to make real money, why not just get yourself licensed/registered and start a mutual fund/hedge fund/CTA business or whatever and clip management & incentive fees from whoever signs up, at least that way you're in complete control over what gets executed, when to get in, when to get out... why leave that up to someone else?

The other thing about the signal service is, in order to sell it will you be posting some kind of record that people can look at and see how your calls have turned out? I know that I've observed the thread and know you've made some savvy calls but in order to "sell" a service like this, you'll have to show the doubting Thomases your track record over a substantial period of time, say 3-5yrs.

Just some thoughts. I wish you nothing but the best.

-SL


Actually this got me thinking about the economics of your various options. Here are some numbers I threw together, correct me where I might be mistaken....
For arguments sake (just thinking aloud here):

$100k account x 20%/year = $20k/year

$50/mo x 30 signal buyers = 1500/mo x 12-months = $18k/year (I don't know what kind of market there is for this stuff, is 30 reasonable? Can you get 100? Obviously that changes the math considerably)

Or raise some cash, start a small fund:
Throw in your $100k, raise $5mm more
$5,100,000 x 20%/year = $1.02mm Profit in first year, of which you get 20% which is about $200k + the $20k of earnings you made on your 100k invested. Of course there is overhead like equipment, offices, software, etc, but you get the idea of the business model.

Anyway, just some thoughts...
  • #13,689
  • Apr 19, 2012 11:47pm Apr 19, 2012 11:47pm
Quoting InfinitySL
Chris,

I've been thinking about your question about whether or not to do a signal service and I have to ask you the obvious question: Why?
Why not? Actually, I was asked to for one of my larger clients.

Quote

Why would you want to subject yourself to the stress of having to make good calls every day/few days in order to justify whatever nominal fee you're planning to attach to the program? If the signals are good ones, why not just trade them yourself and make money off of them. I would imagine that since you're the one creating the signals you'll be the best at trading them. Do you really need the money produced by selling them and how much more lucrative is it to sell the signals vs. just trade them yourself?
I obviously do trade them myself. This is simply another form of leverage and adds to the monthly outcome.
Quote
But that naturally leads to the following question: If you think your signals are good and want to make real money, why not just get yourself licensed/registered and start a mutual fund/hedge fund/CTA business or whatever and clip management & incentive fees from whoever signs up, at least that way you're in complete control over what gets executed, when to get in, when to get out... why leave that up to someone else?
Mainly because it would take a monumental amount of effort. I wouldn't even know where to raise that kind of capital. Not to mention I am already working on two degrees at the same time. The extra classes might be a bit much. However, once I have my finance and CIS degree, I suppose I could move in that direction. Still though, it is the raising capital part that I wouldn't know what to do....

Quote
The other thing about the signal service is, in order to sell it will you be posting some kind of record that people can look at and see how your calls have turned out? I know that I've observed the thread and know you've made some savvy calls but in order to "sell" a service like this, you'll have to show the doubting Thomases your track record over a substantial period of time, say 3-5yrs.
You would be stunned at how little "proof" you need. After all, one of the biggest "gurus" here at FF have never posted a live trade. None the less, plenty of people are willing to fight for them. Also, the signal providers that I have seen manage to sell them to other people - even when they obviously don't know what in the hell they are doing.

Quote

Just some thoughts. I wish you nothing but the best.

-SL
I know this, didn't take it any other way.....
  • #13,690
  • Apr 21, 2012 3:39am Apr 21, 2012 3:39am
Hey Chris,

Why not do a signal service ?..... absolutely you should, there's a lot of room for growth for genuine services and not ones made on bullshit....

I think you would need to make public knowledge your win/loss ratio, also your average % gain per quarter, half year, year. Also expected draw-down averages etc......Be transparent...

There are too many people with unrealistic views in this retail industry, especially Here on FF, a lot of traders think that 20-30% gains a month are the norm for successful traders, when reality is that would be great returns per year on your equity...

however you format the project there will be hurdles to get over...

Good luck...........Ja.
Memories caught in time but never forgotten
  • #13,691
  • Apr 21, 2012 8:28pm Apr 21, 2012 8:28pm
Quoting j4d
Hey Chris,

Why not do a signal service ?..... absolutely you should, there's a lot of room for growth for genuine services and not ones made on bullshit....

I think you would need to make public knowledge your win/loss ratio, also your average % gain per quarter, half year, year. Also expected draw-down averages etc......Be transparent...

There are too many people with unrealistic views in this retail industry, especially Here on FF, a lot of traders think that 20-30% gains a month are the norm for successful traders, when reality is that would...
Thanks mate....
  • #13,692
  • Apr 22, 2012 8:01pm Apr 22, 2012 8:01pm
Quiet open to the week, but the HSBC PMI number could be a good mover? I think the central bank meetings - especially the Fed on Tues and Weds are what the markets are waiting for.
  • #13,693
  • Apr 24, 2012 7:16pm Apr 24, 2012 7:16pm
New blog post.....
  • #13,694
  • Apr 25, 2012 8:49pm Apr 25, 2012 8:49pm
Liking this pair as well now........
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  • #13,695
  • Apr 28, 2012 7:19pm Apr 28, 2012 7:19pm
I know I have been waiting.....and waiting.....and waiting.....for the USD/JPY to bounce, but this coming couple of days will be huge from a technical perspective. If this market is going to turn around - it's right here. Otherwise, we go back to the "When will the BoJ punish us all for shorting this pair" game...
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  • #13,696
  • Apr 30, 2012 2:05am Apr 30, 2012 2:05am
nice charts as always!
  • #13,697
  • Apr 30, 2012 10:25pm Apr 30, 2012 10:25pm
The USD/JPY pair fell through the 80 handle, but we still have the 200 day EMA in the way of the sellers. This EMA is a major one that a lot of trend traders and black box systems pay attention to. It is only because of this that I bring it up.

If the pair falls, I am moving on. I am not interested in shorting under any circumstances, save the Bank of Japan giving up publicly.
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  • #13,698
  • May 1, 2012 9:44am May 1, 2012 9:44am
USD/JPY perking up.....
  • #13,699
  • May 1, 2012 2:48pm May 1, 2012 2:48pm
Won't stop climbing it seems......1.62 looks to be supportive???

Rule Britannia......
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  • #13,700
  • May 3, 2012 7:39am May 3, 2012 7:39am
New post on the blog......
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