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The life of a trading system on Forex Factory

  • #741
  • Apr 17, 2012 12:46pm Apr 17, 2012 12:46pm
Quoting micmic
A profitable purely mechanical system would have to have such a complexity that would make it highly improbable for the vast majority of traders to discover it, including those geniuses that program for the banks.
Not really, it just needs to be extremely hard to execute by the average traders. E.g.: losing 90 times out of a 100. Not a lot of people can accept such a low win-rate.
  • #742
  • Apr 17, 2012 12:49pm Apr 17, 2012 12:49pm
Quoting Custos
Not really, it just needs to be extremely hard to execute by the average traders. E.g.: losing 90 times out of a 100. Not a lot of people can accept such a low win-rate.
Manual traders wouldn't, but EA designers have backtested all kinds of win rates. If it worked in the long run and the drawdown was acceptable, they would have traded it.
  • #743
  • Apr 17, 2012 12:51pm Apr 17, 2012 12:51pm
Quoting micmic
Ok, I'll make an EA to test this. Any pair will do ?
Also: I suppose that by engulfing we mean that High >= Previous High and Low <= Previous Low ? I'm asking because some people don't take into account the wicks when determining which candle is engulfing.
  • #744
  • Apr 17, 2012 12:57pm Apr 17, 2012 12:57pm
Quoting micmic
Manual traders wouldn't, but EA designers have backtested all kinds of win rates. If it worked in the long run and the drawdown was acceptable, they would have traded it.
well, I can just say my systems still work and they don't look like they will fail anytime soon.
  • #745
  • Apr 17, 2012 1:02pm Apr 17, 2012 1:02pm
Quoting Custos
well, I can just say my systems still work and they don't look like they will fail anytime soon.
I don't doubt it. But I would bet that you must be doing something very very few EA programmers are doing, and it's not just the low win rate.
  • #746
  • Apr 17, 2012 1:05pm Apr 17, 2012 1:05pm
Quoting micmic
I don't doubt it. But I would bet that you must be doing something very very few EA programmers are doing, and it's not just the low win rate.
probably, some parts are a bit original.
  • #747
  • Apr 17, 2012 1:11pm Apr 17, 2012 1:11pm
Quoting micmic
Ok, I'll make an EA to test this. Any pair will do ?

open and close only needs to engulf the previous open and close..

for meaningful data a mixture of pairs should be used... i think?
tradewith60
  • #748
  • Apr 17, 2012 1:40pm Apr 17, 2012 1:40pm
Well, my recent 15Min TF system, which was born outta of a requirement for no time to trade stopped working, so dug out my previous M1 fast day trader system and it's working great today, guess I'm back onto that.
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #749
  • Apr 17, 2012 2:40pm Apr 17, 2012 2:40pm
Quoting micmic
Exactly. Every simple and not-so-simple system is guaranteed to have been coded into an EA. And, you know what ? Some of these systems may have also been making money FOR YEARS. But not always. Sometime the market will change and you have to have the discretion (that word again!) to decide whether your system is having a bad streak or is not working anymore.

A profitable purely mechanical system would have to have such a complexity that would make it highly improbable for the vast majority of traders to discover it, including those geniuses...
micmic

Sorry for the question,but are you 100% sure the Turtles System doesn't work anymore?Or are you saying that simple breakout or trend trading systems don't work anymore?As far as i am concerned as long as trends continue,by default donchian systems will work.The reason i think these systems are out of fashion is because most people are trying to sell the 20 day high instead of buying it(got to get the whole move)!

60 mm

Thanks for the test info!Not enough of that on ff in my opinion.
  • #750
  • Apr 17, 2012 3:16pm Apr 17, 2012 3:16pm
Quoting DemoForever
micmic

Sorry for the question,but are you 100% sure the Turtles System doesn't work anymore?Or are you saying that simple breakout or trend trading systems don't work anymore?As far as i am concerned as long as trends continue,by default donchian systems will work.The reason i think these systems are out of fashion is because most people are trying to sell the 20 day high instead of buying it(got to get the whole move)!

60 mm

Thanks for the test info!Not enough of that on ff in my opinion.

Look at the second chart here.
  • #751
  • Apr 17, 2012 3:41pm Apr 17, 2012 3:41pm
Quoting micmic
Look at the second chart here.
Don't trust the curve!

What has that test got to do with buying 20 day highs on the eur/usd today?Have you bought 20 day highs and sold 20 day lows on eur/usd for the last three years?Did you make money or not?
  • #752
  • Apr 17, 2012 4:01pm Apr 17, 2012 4:01pm
pretty much agree with mimic as far as systems go,

as ive stated many times you can not have a profitable system without one element of descresion.as small as it may be its the tipping piont to a longterm profitable system and not,i have a no of EA s i trade that infact are from this ff,but they only produce returns if i turn them on at the correct times,as mimic states ,if you have a mechanical system without descresion within it,you can code it and its game over,sell it to a bank.

as for the question of wether trading is simple,i think its the hardest thing ive encountered to eventually realise how simple it can be

somtimes
  • #753
  • Apr 17, 2012 4:03pm Apr 17, 2012 4:03pm
Quoting DemoForever
Don't trust the curve!

What has that test got to do with buying 20 day highs on the eur/usd today?Have you bought 20 day highs and sold 20 day lows on eur/usd for the last three years?Did you make money or not?
The original Turtles System had very specific entry and exit methods, and that curve shows the return of the first system (20 day breakouts) over the years. So I'm not sure... why exactly I should not trust the curve ? There is further discussion here. If you followed the EXACT turtle rules, then from 1996 to 2009 you would have had zero returns. If you have a totally different system in mind, then we can discuss it. But not every 20-days breakout system is "Turtles". Other breakout systems may work much better. Or worse.
  • #754
  • Apr 17, 2012 4:09pm Apr 17, 2012 4:09pm
the rules of the turtles system i read,allowed some desrecion on which rules within the rules they could use,that to me would be 1 element of descresion,
  • #755
  • Apr 17, 2012 4:53pm Apr 17, 2012 4:53pm
the turtles had discretion in what instruments to trade...
tradewith60
  • #756
  • Apr 17, 2012 4:57pm Apr 17, 2012 4:57pm
Quoting 60minuteman
the turtles had discretion in what instruments to trade...
I do too, it is choosing the best gap to S/R to trade. Multiple instruments tend to give quality set-ups at the same time. I am assuming you do the same with your engulfing strategy.

I.E. they will all reverse / take profit / pullback at the same time.
  • #757
  • Apr 17, 2012 5:03pm Apr 17, 2012 5:03pm
Quoting jag1966
I do too, it is choosing the best gap to S/R to trade. Multiple instruments tend to give quality set-ups at the same time. I am assuming you do the same with your engulfing strategy.

I.E. they will all reverse / take profit / pullback at the same time.

  • #758
  • Apr 17, 2012 5:07pm Apr 17, 2012 5:07pm
Quoting 60minuteman
the turtles had discretion in what instruments to trade...
Not really.
They were given a list of acceptable commodities to trade.
There could be no more than two open trades per group...ie metals, grains, financials, meats etc.

When the breakouts occurred, they took them.
  • #759
  • Apr 17, 2012 5:09pm Apr 17, 2012 5:09pm
Quoting mister me
the rules of the turtles system i read,allowed some desrecion on which rules within the rules they could use,that to me would be 1 element of descresion,
They made their choice once (at the beginning) and stuck with it.

I would not call that discretionary trading as it is being discussed here.

That's like saying that System X is a discretionary system because you chose to trade it, even though it has rigid rules.
  • #760
  • Apr 17, 2012 5:18pm Apr 17, 2012 5:18pm
Quoting billbss
They made their choice once (at the beginning) and stuck with it.

I would not call that discretionary trading as it is being discussed here.

That's like saying that System X is a discretionary system because you chose to trade it, even though it has rigid rules.
you got it in one
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