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Robert Miner's Dynamic Trading learning journal

  • #101
  • Apr 4, 2012 6:11pm Apr 4, 2012 6:11pm
Quoting lithium1
Where do you suggest to put the stop?
It really depends on the time frame you are basing your trade on. Stops, assuming you use Elliott Wave and Fib to determine entries, should always be set above/below levels that invalidate the wave count you are tracking - that is the only way to be objective and consistent on a trade by trade basis.

If you want, share your wave count here in the forum and I can better assist in gauging where the stop-loss should be set.
  • #102
  • Apr 11, 2012 10:28am Apr 11, 2012 10:28am
Updated AUD/USD count - getting close for long entries?

http://www.aspentrading.com/uploaded...AUDUSD_3hr.png
  • #103
  • Apr 12, 2012 8:09am Apr 12, 2012 8:09am
Quoting Dave Floyd
Updated AUD/USD count - getting close for long entries?

http://www.aspentrading.com/uploaded...AUDUSD_3hr.png
Where do you suggest the stop loss should be?
  • #104
  • Apr 12, 2012 8:55am Apr 12, 2012 8:55am
Quoting lithium1
Where do you suggest the stop loss should be?
Well, given that this is a Miner thread with an EW foundation - how would you set stops based on the above chart? If Wave 2 lows are in and we are in a 5-wave move higher in Wave 3 - stops should be set at levels where that wave count would be invalidated - right?

Not being coy - but think about that and post your thoughts - happy to offer feedback on your answer.
  • #105
  • Apr 12, 2012 6:06pm Apr 12, 2012 6:06pm
Miner will enter with the dtosc. And stop will always be placed a few pips below the recent low, like I always do. In this case, below your wave2

In your case, to invalidate this count, it should be below 78.6%? Or it can also be the bottom of your wave 1? Or it can also be below the wave ii of your wave 1.
  • #106
  • Apr 15, 2012 7:35pm Apr 15, 2012 7:35pm
Quoting Dave Floyd
Well, given that this is a Miner thread with an EW foundation - how would you set stops based on the above chart? If Wave 2 lows are in and we are in a 5-wave move higher in Wave 3 - stops should be set at levels where that wave count would be invalidated - right?

Not being coy - but think about that and post your thoughts - happy to offer feedback on your answer.
Hi Dave, any feedback on my answers? Thanks.
  • #107
  • Apr 16, 2012 6:25am Apr 16, 2012 6:25am
After taking a few days break, finally found a setup on AUDUSD.

Daily DTosc turned up.
Breakout from downtrend channel, retraced back to the trendline.

Hourly chart showing an impulsive 5 wave, ABC corrective retrace to fibo 61.8.

Entry with hourly Dtosc turned up.

LONG 2 positions at 1.03313, sl 1.03170.

Taken early profit 1 position at 1.03372, +6pips.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSD.jpg Size: 364 KB
  • #108
  • Apr 16, 2012 9:32am Apr 16, 2012 9:32am
Nasdaq 100 & S&P crashed down. Possibly AUDUSD is not going any higher.

Move up my sl to 1.03380
  • #109
  • Apr 16, 2012 9:44am Apr 16, 2012 9:44am
AUD/USD longs are not in play yet - Friday's break below 1375 made longs a no-go for now. Gotta look at equities when trading AUD/USD

http://www.aspentrading.com/uploaded....16.12sp60.png
  • #110
  • Apr 16, 2012 9:48am Apr 16, 2012 9:48am
Quoting Dave Floyd
AUD/USD longs are not in play yet - Friday's break below 1375 made longs a no-go for now. Gotta look at equities when trading AUD/USD

http://www.aspentrading.com/uploaded....16.12sp60.png

oh, I thought you were in favour of LONG last week. Now things have changed huh........ your method is not easy to understand...
  • #111
  • Apr 16, 2012 9:57am Apr 16, 2012 9:57am
Quoting lithium1
oh, I thought you were in favour of LONG last week. Now things have changed huh........ your method is not easy to understand...
My/our method is not terribly complicated - although it does take some effort and a checklist of items before you make trades. Yes, last week AUD/USD did look good from a long entry perspective and if one wanted, there were modest profits to be made. BUT, if you were watching the S&P's (which you have to in order to trade AUD/USD) the break below 1375 on Friday negated the near-term bullish count and now points towards 1350/60. In the interim, longs in AUD/USD (or any risk related FX pair) is not advised until the S&P's find support and begin to rally.

Simple cause and effect - with the S&P's poised to go lower we have limit orders to get short EUR/USD (just filled on one at 1.3065) - that pair is poised to drop lower in tandem with the S&P's
  • #112
  • Apr 16, 2012 9:59am Apr 16, 2012 9:59am
Take profit on 2nd position at 1.03527, +21pips

First position +6pips

Total +27pips
  • #113
  • Apr 16, 2012 10:04am Apr 16, 2012 10:04am
Quoting Dave Floyd
My/our method is not terribly complicated - although it does take some effort and a checklist of items before you make trades. Yes, last week AUD/USD did look good from a long entry perspective and if one wanted, there were modest profits to be made. BUT, if you were watching the S&P's (which you have to in order to trade AUD/USD) the break below 1375 on Friday negated the near-term bullish count and now points towards 1350/60. In the interim, longs in AUD/USD (or any risk related FX pair) is not advised until the S&P's find support and begin...
Sorry Dave, I can't figure out how you trade. Maybe I need another few years of experience to understand.
  • #114
  • Apr 17, 2012 2:46am Apr 17, 2012 2:46am
Quoting Dave Floyd
Simple cause and effect - with the S&P's poised to go lower we have limit orders to get short EUR/USD (just filled on one at 1.3065) - that pair is poised to drop lower in tandem with the S&P's
Hi Dave, eur/usd is not looking too good at the moment, where do you place your stop?
  • #115
  • Apr 17, 2012 1:41pm Apr 17, 2012 1:41pm
Quoting lithium1
Hi Dave, eur/usd is not looking too good at the moment, where do you place your stop?
Just above the recent swing high at 1.3219 but that is absolute worst case - if the S&P's continue to be as strong as they are, you would not want to wait until 1.3219 to cut it.

Market is very tricky in here - there are literally 2 valid wave counts in the S&P's right now - bullish and bearish. Know that sounds like a major 'non-answer' but that is simply reality based on how I/we evaluate markets and trade set-ups.

http://www.aspentrading.com/uploaded....12sp2hour.png

Bearish S&P Count (this chart is a few hours old, so if this count is correct, we have met some minimum upside targets and Wave C should get underway lower shortly.)

http://www.aspentrading.com/uploaded...12_SPX_1hr.png

How do you know which one to go with? What are the other asset classes doing?

If you look at the bullish price action in AUD/USD today as well as crude oil futures and USD/CAD (strong CAD) it seems like risk related markets are pointing higher and thus one needs to favor the bullish S&P count above.
  • #116
  • May 7, 2012 10:23am May 7, 2012 10:23am
Wow! Good analysis Dave!

Hi lithium1! Meet you here.

I am planning to create a system for wave analysis. Currently no ideas that i should use what kind of reference value/conditions. Would like to know about how to definite a proper wave count? Does it obeys the theory?
  • #117
  • May 7, 2012 10:36am May 7, 2012 10:36am
Quoting Fx2ProTrader
Wow! Good analysis Dave!

Hi lithium1! Meet you here.

I am planning to create a system for wave analysis. Currently no ideas that i should use what kind of reference value/conditions. Would like to know about how to definite a proper wave count? Does it obeys the theory?
Hey Darren, thanks for the kind words. If you reference the S&P chart in post #115 above on the S&P's - the chart below shows the updated count - it has been spot on overall - we still see the S&P's lower towards 1350/40 which has major implications in FX - i.e. don;t try bottom fishing the 'risk on' FX pairs!

http://www.aspentrading.com/uploaded....12sp60min.png
  • #118
  • May 7, 2012 11:01am May 7, 2012 11:01am
Quoting Dave Floyd
Hey Darren, thanks for the kind words. If you reference the S&P chart in post #115 above on the S&P's - the chart below shows the updated count - it has been spot on overall - we still see the S&P's l....
Hi Dave!

Would you mind to share your techniques ,that usually which wave count for entry is the best? Of course there is a possibility of trend reversal as this wave might not be the right. Just like the S&P that you posted, will the wave 4 nearing completion. What is the validation for wave 4 to be completely end? Break previous wave B or 3?
  • #119
  • May 7, 2012 11:24am May 7, 2012 11:24am
Quoting Fx2ProTrader
Hi Dave!

Would you mind to share your techniques ,that usually which wave count for entry is the best? Of course there is a possibility of trend reversal as this wave might not be the right. Just like the S&P that you posted, will the wave 4 nearing completion. What is the validation for wave 4 to be completely end? Break previous wave B or 3?
Darren, regarding Wave counts - we go with what has been outlined in the Elliott Wave Principle. The only thing we do, and we think it adds a lot of value, is using inter-market analysis to verify/refute the wave counts we come up with. Charts/wave counts alone are not enough - you need to understand what asset classes are driving each other etc etc.

Forecasting termination points is also related to Elliott Wave and Fibonacci- all the ratios are laid out in the book noted above - no guess work - very objective.

In sum - read the first 80 or so pages of The Elliott Wave Principle to get a solid understanding of what we do - or follow along on the 2 threads we have here at FF, or - take a look at our Trader Insight service - shows all the details on how we formulate and execute trades in real-time. (sorry, put on my sales hat there!
  • #120
  • May 7, 2012 11:49am May 7, 2012 11:49am
Quoting Dave Floyd
Darren, regarding Wave counts - we go with what has been outlined in the Elliott Wave Principle. The only thing we do, and we think it adds a lot of value, is using inter-market analysis to verify/refute the wave counts we come up with. Charts/wave counts alone are not enough - you need to understand what asset classes are driving each other etc etc....
Yes. I agree that all instruments are correlated each other with either positive or negative. Does the inter-market analysis works? No ideas of what information is provided and how to use it.

Actually i already understand the principle of Elliot Wave with Fibonacci retracement & expansion. I did read a lot of book regarding this. Just doubt about if can use in practical way.

Thanks for you information. I would like to have a look at previous pages posted on how to set up entry/stop/target.
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