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Seeking Trading Indicator with 50%+ success

  • #21
  • Apr 13, 2012 7:26pm Apr 13, 2012 7:26pm
Quoting misterboy
I have tested a system very similar (with 5,3,3 setting) to that and got 55%-56% accuracy with almost 2:1 RR. But, the exits are not totally mechanical.
5,3,3 works well but it's too fast. good to add an additional filter 14,3,3 if it doesn't cross 50 while 5,3,3 goes ob/os it's usually a higher % play.
  • #22
  • Apr 13, 2012 8:52pm Apr 13, 2012 8:52pm
Quoting Lonestar
No offense take since you talking apples and oranges. Discretionary trading and HFs are completely different approaches to trading. Care to site the reference that most were underwater the past couple years?

Again, you're talking risk/money management and I was talking about trade management and technical skills. Out of the 50% winners there will be plenty of trades that can make decent runs and/or be added to to maximize gains and scaled out of reducing risk. A late entry can be scaled into over a range to turn an otherwise losing trade...

HF's do not trade much differently than the rest of the trading world. The glaring disparity is that they are working with a much much larger capital base and can afford talent with higher education levels, thus emploring more sophisticated research techniques, which are likely to lead to enhanced alpha generation. Even this is not guaranteed, however, more probable. Here is a performance report that was released last week by HSBC private banking. Hedge funds are certainly not performing incredibly this year, given that the S&P 500, their main performance competitor, is up nearly 22% YTD.

http://www.scribd.com/fullscreen/88133045

One of my primary strategies, only averages 38% win rate, yet it is highly successful. You can overcome a low win rate through a variety of techniques which include risk managing. Katroo, however is correct in stating that risk management alone will not give you an edge.
  • #23
  • Apr 13, 2012 9:34pm Apr 13, 2012 9:34pm
38% win rate? u should take the opposite side of the signal
  • #24
  • Apr 13, 2012 10:13pm Apr 13, 2012 10:13pm
Quoting flyingiguana
38% win rate? u should take the opposite side of the signal
Unfortunately, in strategy development pertaining to my risk parameters, opposite signal success just wouldn't work that way.
  • #25
  • Last Post: Apr 14, 2012 9:34am Apr 14, 2012 9:34am
Quoting Lonestar
No offense take since you talking apples and oranges. Discretionary trading and HFs are completely different approaches to trading. Care to site the reference that most were underwater the past couple years?

Again, you're talking risk/money management and I was talking about trade management and technical skills. Out of the 50% winners there will be plenty of trades that can make decent runs and/or be added to to maximize gains and scaled out of reducing risk. A late entry can be scaled into over a range to turn an otherwise losing trade into...
ah oki now i see your point, i just misunderstood your first point

about the HF reference....well idk try to google maybe, its well known that they sucked a bit during last years.....and especially most of top performing in any given year use to suck a lot in upcoming few years....but there are exceptions like renaisance, soros etc

take care
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