Technical Analysis Fallacy | Page 1641 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

The Ultimate Fallacy in Technical Analysis 99 replies

"Technical Analysis Fallacy" thread people, I need your help 54 replies

Technical Analysis Fallacy Redux 23 replies

Statistical analysis fallacy 33 replies

Attachments: Technical Analysis Fallacy
Exit Attachments

Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #32,801
  • Apr 12, 2012 6:39am Apr 12, 2012 6:39am
Quoting N_Trader
Dear Friends,

I have spent roughly 2 years on this thread, and nowadays, I visit it almost everyday.

I don't think that I have learned nothing.
I don't think that I have learned enough either.

It's really an irony for me you see. I came to this thread and read the first post. FTI tells me that there are no holy grails to trading. This was knowledge to me. I thought I had understood the message and quoting him, I could "go out with my guns blazing". After 2 years of searching, I finally am able to internalised this - that there are no holy...

Very well put N_Trader. I wish I had the ability to communicate my thoughts in writing better.
  • #32,802
  • Apr 12, 2012 8:01am Apr 12, 2012 8:01am
Quoting tricello
I share this beliefs with you N_Trader. That's why we should try to be prepared for everything and anything that can happen!

I believe most people come here with an honest desire to learn. Some of them become angry because they expect a free lunch and others (mostly quietly) try to digest the information presented.

It amazes me how people dare to challenge Fti given his curriculum. I don't mean that one must accept everything he says, but 25+years of experience at the highest levels of the industry put him "a little" beyond arguing and trying...
Thanks Tricello.

Let's try our best till the end.
  • #32,803
  • Apr 12, 2012 11:25am Apr 12, 2012 11:25am
Quoting phil13
Every moment in the market is unique, all you have learnt here and elsewhere forms part of your judgement, that's why nothing is rigid and answers are different for everyone and every situation, this will if you work on it become your market intuition (a new sense), that allows you to see the things you missed and work out strategies to deal with all the uncertainty, but due to all the rubbish we are all told about analysing the market for 'good' entries it takes thousands of hours practising to achieve this goal and accept the truth is when ever...
Phil,

Thank you for responding.

"that's why nothing is rigid and answers are different for everyone and every situation."

I understand this and I am not looking for a specific answer or forumula such as: "if you are up $xx for the day use XX-XX-XX as a skew for the next wave", or "when in a large losing position and _____ is happening in the markets, look to your 2 month foreign capital and limit your risk to this."

However, it is clear that FTI believes foreign capital is important, as it is mentioned many times throughout the thread. I believe there is a better explanation, in a THEORETICAL sense, of how he actually USES this foreign capital than answers such as "it is different for everyone and each situation." I can't stress enough the word "USES."

I would guess if asked "in a general and theoretical sense, how do you use foreign capital," many posters would either not know how to answer or the answers would be very different. I don't think this is what FTI intended, as foreign capital seems to be a big component of his trading style, and to not have a firm grasp on what it actually means is a problem.
  • #32,804
  • Apr 12, 2012 11:59am Apr 12, 2012 11:59am
one example of how fti "used" foreign cap when he worked for the bank and did not use leverage:

Post #465,
"........
In terms of rule of thumb,risk parameters,
I used to work within the scope of 50% of annualised book profits and or 10% of my trading lines which ever was larger.
...."

Few of us can emulate this for lack of solid foreign cap record, besides risk parameters are personal, okay, another useless quote from me


Rgs,
Baifu
  • #32,805
  • Edited 4:05pm Apr 12, 2012 12:14pm | Edited 4:05pm
Quoting Rabid Leper;5and Sco565682
Phil,

Thank you for responding.

"that's why nothing is rigid and answers are different for everyone and every situation."

I understand this and I am not looking for a specific answer or forumula such as: "if you are up $xx for the day use XX-XX-XX as a skew for the next wave", or "when in a large losing position and _____ is happening in the markets, look to your 2 month foreign capital and limit your risk to this."

However, it is clear that FTI believes foreign capital is important, as it is mentioned many times throughout the thread. I believe there is a better explanation, in a THEORETICAL sense, of how he actually USES this foreign capital than answers such as "it is different for everyone and each situation." I can't stress enough the word "USES."

I would guess if asked "in a general and theoretical sense, how do you use foreign capital," many posters would either not know how to answer or the answers would be very different. I don't think this is what FTI intended, as foreign capital seems to be a big component of his trading style, and to not have a firm grasp on what it actually means is a problem.

Foreign capital is PROFIT ON MARKET
Foreign capital is AIRBAG FOR YOU SPECULATION
Foreign capital is use all the time if your positions in the market

If you entry scout long and scout makes good.Why add another long position?
Makes any sense?
The second position used this foreign capital...
  • #32,806
  • Apr 12, 2012 12:32pm Apr 12, 2012 12:32pm
if you are using foreign capital to trade with then you are using captured pips/money from the market that you won at some point and/or are +pips in a current trading situation, you can use it as a buffer for loss or to enhance an attack, it depends on what the market is doing and how you are managing your trading at that time, at all times you must 'protect your book', without it you have nothing to trade with.

Who's pips/money would you rather fight with yours or theirs?


how or where your tolerances are in your collection and use of foreign capital is for you to discover, but remember......


Foreign capital is just another tool to help 'protect your book'.




Regards


Phil.

ps. Gro has said the same but i have written this now so i will post it.
-be careful about what you allow to be put in your mind-
  • #32,807
  • Apr 12, 2012 1:59pm Apr 12, 2012 1:59pm
RL,

Just search the thread using "fti foreign capital" and study all the posts where foreign capital is mentioned, you will become the expert on foreign capital and tell us your findings.

I just did and below are some early examples, foreign capital is part of preservation of capital (rules #1, 2, 3 of trading).

Jan 21 2008 #956
“16 jan already made a bomb.
17 th mkt was distributing, so used the profits form 16th as foreign capital for scalping the distribution.”

Feb 12 #1458
“Your reading of the MM is mostly right, for the example I posted.
The 16 lots attack was a decision , derived that the momentum of the swing towards the support. There is no logical mathematics for that, except that it was a decision for a quick and final attack sequence . (note that the my net available exposure can be only 20 for this example. 4 was used and 16 is the residue unused). Notice that the high exposure was not tolerant of stay in the market, and is used to forage for "foreign capital" to sustain the actual 4 as ammo to ride a little, but risklessly.”

Mar 12 2008 #1712
“The focus should however be on attack sequence, where you have foreign capital protection to a certain extend.
Pressing should however be initiated only once trend is entrenched, normally on wave 2 onwards.

and should be on reverse fibo summation up to limit, if foreign capital reserves allow.
Of course when you first set out, there is little foreign reserves to lean on, so then you must be very conservative, until you have the nesting."

Rgs,
Baifu
  • #32,808
  • Apr 12, 2012 3:56pm Apr 12, 2012 3:56pm
Quoting Gro
Foreign capital is PROFIT ON MARKET
Foreign capital is AIRBAG FOR YOU SPECULATION
Foreign capital is use all the time if your positions in the market

If you entry scout long and scout makes good.Why add another long position?
Makes any sense?
Foreign capital used by the second position.

So good to see you my friend.....


V
  • #32,809
  • Apr 12, 2012 4:15pm Apr 12, 2012 4:15pm
Quoting indianguyinny24
So good to see you my friend.....


V
Hello How's your life?
  • #32,810
  • Apr 12, 2012 4:42pm Apr 12, 2012 4:42pm
Quoting Gro
Hello How's your life?

all is good Gro, life is good...still trying to balance trading and job....


V
  • #32,811
  • Apr 12, 2012 4:45pm Apr 12, 2012 4:45pm
Quoting Dominator4fx
i will say that it all depends on the traders own perception on how well se is able to see the markets and its movements.

Sometimes it is not really easy to do so.
Turtle survives and is not fast and scorpions dont survives but is fast ...
  • #32,812
  • Apr 12, 2012 4:53pm Apr 12, 2012 4:53pm
Quoting Gro
Turtle survives and is not fast and scorpions dont survives but is fast ...
I need to learn to be more like turtles.
  • #32,813
  • Apr 12, 2012 4:57pm Apr 12, 2012 4:57pm
Quoting Gro
Hello How's your life?

how are you doing....

V
  • #32,814
  • Apr 12, 2012 4:58pm Apr 12, 2012 4:58pm
Quoting indianguyinny24
all is good Gro, life is good...still trying to balance trading and job....


V
Yes,balance ...Life loves it :o)
  • #32,815
  • Edited 5:28pm Apr 12, 2012 5:16pm | Edited 5:28pm
Quoting indianguyinny24
how are you doing....

V
I balanced :o)))
Without a form and odor ... :o)))

Good night
  • #32,816
  • Edited 12:49am Apr 13, 2012 12:32am | Edited 12:49am
In war, then, let your great object be victory, not lengthy campaigns.

Hence the skillful fighter puts himself into a position which makes defeat impossible, and does not miss the moment for defeating the enemy.

In respect of military method, we have, firstly, Measurement; secondly, Estimation of quantity; thirdly, Calculation; fourthly, Balancing of chances; fifthly, Victory.

The general who advances without coveting fame and retreats without fearing disgrace
  • #32,817
  • Apr 13, 2012 12:44am Apr 13, 2012 12:44am
Quoting 012
In war, then, let your great object be victory, not lengthy campaigns
Yes. But not always possible for me. Yesterday I was caught against impulse when shorting EU. Bite the bullet with 0.6% lost due to inability to babysit my trade.
  • #32,818
  • Apr 13, 2012 1:05am Apr 13, 2012 1:05am
Quoting Fana
Hi Fti. Thank you for opening my eyes in many ways. I will be here, because i need blah blah with friends, i cant live alone... . You will find us when you will stop here for a while... Regards
Hi Fana,
Sorry for the blah blah my friend.
  • #32,819
  • Apr 13, 2012 1:06am Apr 13, 2012 1:06am
Quoting N_Trader
Yes. But not always possible for me. Yesterday I was caught against impulse when shorting EU. Bite the bullet with 0.6% lost due to inability to babysit my trade.
and I am still fighting and it is rewarding me now increased my army.
  • #32,820
  • Apr 13, 2012 1:18am Apr 13, 2012 1:18am
Quoting simpleman
and I am still fighting and it is rewarding me now increased my army.


Good job!
9 traders viewing now