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B.S. Trading with Kenneth Lee

  • #3,401
  • Apr 8, 2012 7:35am Apr 8, 2012 7:35am
My friends have somehow hinted me about different trading sessions, and I have checked up my trades. It has appeared, the majority of trades from the levels formed during the Asian session were unprofitable. 70 % of my unprofitable trades have turned out were at such levels.

And on the contrary. The levels formed during Europe or America have brought only 30 % of losses.

After that, I began to name the Asian levels, false levels of demand and supply. Unfortunately, the majority of levels (to their base) is formed just during Asia.
I am learning English, but still cannot speak well.
  • #3,402
  • Apr 8, 2012 8:02am Apr 8, 2012 8:02am
Quoting Keus
My friends have somehow hinted me about different trading sessions, and I have checked up my trades. It has appeared, the majority of trades from the levels formed during the Asian session were unprofitable. 70 % of my unprofitable trades have turned out were at such levels.

And on the contrary. The levels formed during Europe or America have brought only 30 % of losses.

After that, I began to name the Asian levels, false levels of demand and supply. Unfortunately, the majority of levels (to their base) is formed just during Asia.
yes and for myself i tend to get a small trade almost every night during the Asian session late ( 10:30 eastern U.S.) but it is there. but more of between levels than just from one.

I look for where price is and where it maybe heading than just for a level to enter. So more like hitching a ride. But it normally is a level. But not always.

But great your finding what works best for you. But analysis those losses and see if maybe if there is a away to adapt to that time frame if it is when your available. Or work on setting PO's on those better percentage times.
Good Trading To All ; Ken Lee
  • #3,403
  • Apr 8, 2012 9:28am Apr 8, 2012 9:28am
It is my supple level. Good level, but is created during the Asian session. For me it is bad, I will sell only with confirmation.
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I am learning English, but still cannot speak well.
  • #3,404
  • Apr 9, 2012 4:25am Apr 9, 2012 4:25am
here is a couple of charts showing what I was talking about above , and how price action unfolds. we can see price just moving across our charts. Then as we watch we see price try to push deeper moving into our level . The the rejection we were looking for.

Again I am only showing the faster chart as a reference . If your watching you can see the push down on any time frame . It looks the same in real time . Only the candles left behind look different on the various time frames.

Plus these are GFT charts so look a bit different.
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Good Trading To All ; Ken Lee
  • #3,405
  • Apr 9, 2012 4:32am Apr 9, 2012 4:32am
thank you Ken for explainint time of the day.
really helpfull

AC
Simplicity Is The Ultimate Sophistication ~LDV~
  • #3,406
  • Apr 9, 2012 9:46am Apr 9, 2012 9:46am
Quoting Kenneth Lee
here is a couple of charts showing what I was talking about above , and how price action unfolds. we can see price just moving across our charts. Then as we watch we see price try to push deeper moving into our level . The the rejection we were looking for.

Again I am only showing the faster chart as a reference . If your watching you can see the push down on any time frame . It looks the same in real time . Only the candles left behind look different on the various time frames.

Plus these are GFT charts so look a bit different.
Hi Ken

A couple of questions if I may?

Looking from left to right. The area of 3030 to 3040 were price came down between 4 and 9:30. This would have been a demand area. The retest of this area happened just after the 8th.. Would this be correct?

Secondly, the 3050 to 3060 @ 7:30 would "not" be an area of interest as it is currently part of the initial 3030/3040 area previously mentioned.

Lastly , we see the area of 3050-3060 between the 8th and 9th set up for a demand area.

Am I seeing all this correctly?

Thank
TSD
  • #3,407
  • Apr 9, 2012 12:17pm Apr 9, 2012 12:17pm
Quoting TraderinSD
Hi Ken

A couple of questions if I may?

Looking from left to right. The area of 3030 to 3040 were price came down between 4 and 9:30. This would have been a demand area. The retest of this area happened just after the 8th.. Would this be correct?

Secondly, the 3050 to 3060 @ 7:30 would "not" be an area of interest as it is currently part of the initial 3030/3040 area previously mentioned.

Lastly , we see the area of 3050-3060 between the 8th and 9th set up for a demand area.

Am I seeing all this correctly?

Thank
TSD
I just woke up froma anp and need to get ready for work .. Will try and go over your actual price points later ..

But in brief , I will say that this goes hand and hand with the time of day post above . Some times you need to just see what is going on right now. Not so much the historical data.

You can see the rejection from the previous try down then the last try was a bit deeper.

and on another note. I moved my stop to +1 on that spike down entry it got taken out , But on the move down this am that took out my stop I re-entered and just closed for 73 pips.

It was the last move down which formed the pin on the hrly (e/u) and hit the hrly demand level 1.3051 even deeper.

I could have gotten over a 100 if I had taken the 24 or so i saw earlier and then reset a PO at 1.3055
But trying to move my stops and let them have a bit of room to run even if I have to go take a nap to do it
..

will try and go into more detail about this later .. have to perform the 3 S's and get to work .

Cheers Ken .
Good Trading To All ; Ken Lee
  • #3,408
  • Apr 9, 2012 12:29pm Apr 9, 2012 12:29pm
quick pic
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Good Trading To All ; Ken Lee
  • #3,409
  • Apr 10, 2012 6:11am Apr 10, 2012 6:11am
Hi Ken, I have a quick question about determining trend and valid zones using HH-HL-LL-LH strategy.

The way I understand it is that for as long as price is making sequences of HH+HL then we are allowed to mark only demand zones. These zones remain valid even if price above is starting to make sequences of LH+LL --> then we are using the demand zones to trade up even though up above we have a LH+LL sequence.

When we have a LH+LL sequence then we're allowed to mark only supply levels, and if in the future the price below these supply levels turns around and starts making a sequence of HH+HL then we still use the supply levels to trade short.

Is that somewhat a correct understanding? I've made a picture to visualize it. Let's assume that all levels marked in this picture are perfect looking s/d zones. My question is only about how the teaching of HH-HL+LL+LH affects the validity of levels.

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  • #3,410
  • Apr 10, 2012 9:48am Apr 10, 2012 9:48am
Quoting Kenneth Lee
I just woke up froma anp and need to get ready for work .. Will try and go over your actual price points later ..

But in brief , I will say that this goes hand and hand with the time of day post above . Some times you need to just see what is going on right now. Not so much the historical data.

You can see the rejection from the previous try down then the last try was a bit deeper.

and on another note. I moved my stop to +1 on that spike down entry it got taken out , But on the move down this am that took out my stop I re-entered and just...
Thanks Ken

Will be waiting for additional info when you have time. Working a full time job and answering questions can get a be much, to be sure.

Thanks again

TSD
  • #3,411
  • Apr 10, 2012 1:19pm Apr 10, 2012 1:19pm
http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1334081308

Got a question about this one. Is this a good example of a level NOT being a fresh level? i.e the market has bounced around this area 3-4 times before and therefore we have no way of knowing whether the demand has dried up? (I'm talking about the lower level of course which was a losing trade).

Did take one trade today which worked out well but wasn't quite sure where to take profit, here's the setup below.

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1334081693

Market was brent crude so slightly unusual for this forum but the theory still stands.

Ticked all the boxes for me so was willing to take it even though its counter trend for the timeframe. I was aiming for the supply level I have but market reversed before it got there. You can see though that if I had set my profit target as the low point of the overnight session it hit that perfectly and was still over 3:1 reward to risk. Sam talks on some of his stuff about taking trades with bigger reward potential so then you can get out early if need be having still achieved a good profit. I think this is a good example where there was some logic to that exit and it was over 3:1 so should have been happy to take it. Any comments welcome.
  • #3,412
  • Apr 11, 2012 7:06am Apr 11, 2012 7:06am
Quoting Kagawa
Hi Ken, I have a quick question about determining trend and valid zones using HH-HL-LL-LH strategy.

The way I understand it is that for as long as price is making sequences of HH+HL then we are allowed to mark only demand zones. These zones remain valid even if price above is starting to make sequences of LH+LL --> then we are using the demand zones to trade up even though up above we have a LH+LL sequence.

When we have a LH+LL sequence then we're allowed to mark only supply levels, and if in the future the price below these supply levels turns...

I think I am losing my ability to explain things.. No why would you mark only one side ? it also depends on the time frame of your charts. Let us say that we are seeing a Higher High. So we are looking for a Higher Low to enter.

But since we know this to be the case, We aren't we trading from that demand down to that higher low. yes it maybe a smaller trade ,

Because when we get into our long we are expecting to make another higher high. But if it doesn't then we have the gains from the short as well as the gains from the long.

On a 4 hr or daily chart that swing back up could take days or weeks. Talking in absolutes just doesn't really work. it isn't abstract either but it is simple.

But my explaining isn't hitting home.
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Good Trading To All ; Ken Lee
  • #3,413
  • Apr 11, 2012 7:23am Apr 11, 2012 7:23am
Hi Ken

A couple of questions if I may?

Looking from left to right. The area of 3030 to 3040 were price came down between 4 and 9:30. This would have been a demand area. The retest of this area happened just after the 8th.. Would this be correct?

Yes,

Secondly, the 3050 to 3060 @ 7:30 would "not" be an area of interest as it is currently part of the initial 3030/3040 area previously mentioned.

At the time of this post correct. But not now, Now 1.3070 is / was interesting.

Lastly , we see the area of 3050-3060 between the 8th and 9th set up for a demand area.

yes , But has one touch so if it retests , would look for deeper insertion into the area.

Am I seeing all this correctly?

Thank
TSD
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Good Trading To All ; Ken Lee
  • #3,414
  • Apr 11, 2012 7:26am Apr 11, 2012 7:26am
Quoting caj1986
http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1334081308

Got a question about this one. Is this a good example of a level NOT being a fresh level? i.e the market has bounced around this area 3-4 times before and therefore we have no way of knowing whether the demand has dried up? (I'm talking about the lower level of course which was a losing trade).

Did take one trade today which worked out well but wasn't quite sure where to take profit, here's the setup below.

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1334081693

Market...
?
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Good Trading To All ; Ken Lee
  • #3,415
  • Apr 11, 2012 8:03am Apr 11, 2012 8:03am
Whats wrong?
  • #3,416
  • Apr 11, 2012 8:17am Apr 11, 2012 8:17am
Quoting caj1986
Whats wrong?
think you forgot the chart ?
Good Trading To All ; Ken Lee
  • #3,417
  • Apr 11, 2012 8:30am Apr 11, 2012 8:30am
Ahh yes I can see how that would be a problem

OK EU is the first one, this was where I figured in hindsight it was a weak level because I assume thats what we mean when we say it wasnt a fresh level?

2nd chart is Brent crude which was the query about the profit target.

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...7&d=1334150894

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...8&d=1334150894
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  • #3,418
  • Apr 11, 2012 9:03am Apr 11, 2012 9:03am
Quoting Kenneth Lee
I think I am losing my ability to explain things.. No why would you mark only one side ? it also depends on the time frame of your charts. Let us say that we are seeing a Higher High. So we are looking for a Higher Low to enter.

But since we know this to be the case, We aren't we trading from that demand down to that higher low. yes it maybe a smaller trade ,

Because when we get into our long we are expecting to make another higher high. But if it doesn't then we have the gains from the short as well as the gains from the long.

On a 4 hr...
Sorry if it was a silly question. I'm a slow learner. What I find for me is that rules are very important, we can call them absolutes, I don't mind... it's just that when I can't define a rule or a clear reason for my actions, then I tend to make mistakes under pressure, and the pressure is enormous in FX.

So, if I understand correctly, you suggest taking every good looking level (4h) and then derive the exact zone and target off a smaller TF (30min). But them I'm not sure why you are analyzing trend at all... unless the purpose of trend analysis isn't so much to eliminate levels that don't agree with the trend, but rather to use the trend to define most likely targets... which in conclusion means that the disqualifier of a level (that looks good on its own) is that it lacks an appropriate target and not that it doesn't agree with a trend?

Or, said in less words: I had the impression that you're using the HH-HL-LL-LH strategy as a direct level selection tool, but now it sounds like you're using it merely as a target selection tool (which indirectly turns out to be a level selection tool).
  • #3,419
  • Apr 11, 2012 9:52am Apr 11, 2012 9:52am
Quoting Kenneth Lee
Hi Ken

A couple of questions if I may?

Looking from left to right. The area of 3030 to 3040 were price came down between 4 and 9:30. This would have been a demand area. The retest of this area happened just after the 8th.. Would this be correct?

Yes,

Secondly, the 3050 to 3060 @ 7:30 would "not" be an area of interest as it is currently part of the initial 3030/3040 area previously mentioned.

At the time of this post correct. But not now, Now 1.3070 is / was interesting.

Lastly , we see the...
Thanks Ken.. Most definitely helpful!

TSD
  • #3,420
  • Apr 12, 2012 2:20am Apr 12, 2012 2:20am
Hi Ken,

Could you kindly help explain what is "Arrival" in the Probability Enhancer Scorecard in your document "BS trading" in an another way for me again?. I read again and again but couldnot understand in the end. Thank you for your reply.

Regards,
Exciter135.
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