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No SL No Leverage Strategy - working so far

  • #241
  • Apr 9, 2012 4:06am Apr 9, 2012 4:06am
Quoting hanover
You make claims like "proven wrong" and "based on wrong assumptions", but then offer nothing in the way of explanation, making constructive discussion impossible. Thanks for your comment about appreciation and respect, but I'd prefer an explanation as to WHY I'm wrong, in this instance.
This is what nanningbob always tells me. That "I don't understand" or "I keep assuming incorrectly" when all I have done is provide empirical evidence that trading without stop loss is not more profitable long term nor safer.
  • #242
  • Apr 9, 2012 4:11am Apr 9, 2012 4:11am
Quoting fxtr51
Yes.

because a floating loss is not a realized loss.
You agree ?
Strike 1

Quoting fxtr51


Locking again would be at the level of your SL.
Price would go against your position and you would have - 2 % loss.

At your SL my pending Long would trigger and I would be - 2 %
floating loss.

You have - 2 % realized loss.
I have a - 2 % floating loss.

You assume that a not realized loss is equal to a realized loss.
But it is not equal.
Strike 2

Quoting fxtr51
A realized loss is final.
A floating loss is only a possibility. It can become a profit,
a breakeven or a loss.

And you assume that I donīt enter Short where I unlock
and thus start a second cycle which is separate from the first.

But I will enter Short there.
Thus I will end up with 2 lock-cycles = 4 open positions
at the level where you accept your second loss.

My PL on cycle 1 is then - 2 %
My PL on cycle 2 is then - 1 %

You have a realized loss of 2 % and since I come out
at least at breakeven in the worst case,
my...
Strike 3. You're outta here!

All you're doing is playing a mind game with yourself. If doing it this way helps you stay organized, then fine that's one thing, but I don't see how this helps. It's confusing really. Also as Hanover explained, a second position "locking" the first position, would result in an overall negative swap. Therefore IT IS better to close out completely and reenter again. Simple math proves this beyond all doubt.
  • #243
  • Apr 9, 2012 4:17am Apr 9, 2012 4:17am
Your strategy is quite interesting. Can you give me an invest password from any of your account to see how it works and what profit you get.
  • #244
  • Apr 9, 2012 4:19am Apr 9, 2012 4:19am
Quoting Favorite
That's the whole point!!! Timing is the whole point! The Forex trading is all about timing! But nobody is perfect! If I made a mistake and entered at the wrong time - locking gives me an opportunity to fix this mistake with unlocking at the right time! If the stop-loss guy enters at the wrong time - that's it! He doesn't have the opportunity to fix it, he just loses his money!
This ideaology is quite possibly the biggest fallacy amongst inexperienced traders. Unrealized or realized, the equity is gone from your Net Asset Value. What many beginners don't realize is that by leaving it open they could lose more! If you're wrong it shouldn't take long to know. If you're wrong get out before the whole ship sinks.
  • #245
  • Apr 9, 2012 4:25am Apr 9, 2012 4:25am
Quoting bluesteele
No Bob you do not multi-level when you are down you Martingale.
Why cant you call it what it is?

This thread is nonsense. NO professional trader making their living from the markets trades this way. NO ONE.

Pull up your panties girls....
WOOF!

(for old times sake, hehe)
  • #246
  • Apr 9, 2012 4:39am Apr 9, 2012 4:39am
Quoting hanover
Fxtr51,

If you re-read my earlier comments, I explained why I believe unrealized losses should be considered to be real. It is a contentious issue, with folk sitting in one camp or the other, but just for the record, here are some folk who agree with me:
http://www.secondopinions.ca/newslet...dopinion2.aspx
http://investing-school.com/definiti...ns-and-losses/
http://www.theforextrader.net/Realiz...ed-Returns.php
http://blog.realized-app.com/basics/...gain-real.html
http://www.the-money-cafe.com/Paper-...es-Stupid.html...
Game. Set. Match.

Shut the thread down.
  • #247
  • Apr 9, 2012 4:43am Apr 9, 2012 4:43am
Quoting MSForex
glad to know that you found each other. Please keep us in the loop and let us know how your trading benefit from each others experience. I am curious.
Hope you will prove that holy grail does exits in Forex.

Wishing you all the success.
Hi MSForex,
Nice to meet you and thanks for your couple of good words.
If curious, pls visit
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...58#post5551558
#311
Let only good luck be with you.
  • #248
  • Apr 9, 2012 5:15am Apr 9, 2012 5:15am
Hi DedMatvey,


I've read your post on the other thread. Actually I am interested in understanding your way of trading and to know abt record high/lows you found. My first answer maybe was a bit incomplete.


Could you explain further your way of trading and how to read correctly the excel chart you posted?

Thanks


Quoting DedMatvey
Hi MSForex,
Nice to meet you and thanks for your couple of good words.
If curious, pls visit
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...58#post5551558
#311
Let only good luck be with you.
  • #249
  • Edited 6:32am Apr 9, 2012 6:12am | Edited 6:32am
Quoting 2+2=4ex
This is what nanningbob always tells me. That "I don't understand" or "I keep assuming incorrectly" when all I have done is provide empirical evidence that trading without stop loss is not more profitable long term nor safer.
It is simple why I keep saying you dont understand. Your argument is always two fold.
1) You will say you will blow up your account. I counter but that will take over 50K pips to do that. So I wont. Low or no leverage beats your argument every time.

2) Then you say, You cant make money trading that small. But I do. Winners are winner are winners. A high percentage win rate beats your argument every time. That is the skill part you ignore.

3) Then you say, You will blow up your account. I counter but that will take over 50K pips to do that. So I wont.

4) Then you say, You cant make money trading that small. But I do.

5) Then you say ................................ and on and on and on it goes.

Why do I say you dont understand?? Because you keep debating out of both sides of your mouth. That shows you dont comprehend either side of the argument or you wouldnt keep arguing the same dead points. You state you have empirical evidence, I have real live evidence backed by years of trading. Real actual evidence trumps your empirical evidence. You fail to recognize that alternative trading styles can be and have been successful. They are also a mastered skill. So here we go again.

1) You will say you will blow up your account. I counter but that will take over 50K pips to do that. So I wont. Low or no leverage beats your argument every time.

2) Then you say, You cant make money trading that small. But I do. Winners are winner are winners. A high percentage win rate beats your argument every time. That is the skill part you ignore.

3) Then you say, You will blow up your account. I counter but that will take over 50K pips to do that. So I wont.

4) Then you say, You cant make money trading that small. But I do.

5) Then you say ................................ and on and on and on it goes.

If you understood it you would say, I can see how that works but I wouldnt trade that way. But we know that aint going to happen.

I will state again for the record for the thousandths time: I use percentages for my SL or recovery not pip amounts but that is ok. I know that has never sunk in either. I still remember you making a fool of yourself in my trend trading section telling everyone to beware of no SL Bob. They knew better and wondered what you had been smoking.
  • #250
  • Apr 9, 2012 6:13am Apr 9, 2012 6:13am
Quoting DedMatvey
Hi Nacho,
1. OANDA is not the best broker for your method, 1;50 leverage will only allow you to think of how to make a few pips per day. Have you calculated about how long it will take you to reach 2,000 eur?
My standpoint is: a professional trader should think in terms of monthly then yearly percentage adding to the initial deposit, rather than pips.
For example, if you settle, say, on 8.5% monthly, you can easily calculate your progress - 1mln/10 years. You can never build a plan with pips.
I'm using ALPARI as broker now which allows me to trade micro lots.
If I'm able to lock in 5/6% of my margin every month, then it will take me 16/20 months to double my account...which is the slowest step, as I start to trade bigger lots, the time I need to increase the margin should decrease significantly.

Quoting DedMatvey
2. Your Entry Condition:
LONG when H4 PA closes above 5EMA
SHORT when H4 PA closes below 5EMA
And your comment: The only bad thing is that a trade can stay open for days or weeks before reaching TP.
What I think: these two have nothing to do with each other, it is like trying to turn on a hard rock piece at a concert of classical music. Your mistake: you are trying to use 4hr charts in decision making process for the probable
period of days and even weeks. How come? If you tell me it is good because you have 27 TP trades out of total 29,...
You are correct, this is the main problem, If I happen to have 5 trades all with floating losses then the whole process stops and I have to wait for at least one to close. This will hamper my road to the monthly target of 5/6% of margin. I'm trying to understand ways to counterbalance those floating losses such as those posted by other traders here in this thread. What are your suggestions?

Quoting DedMatvey
3. You say: I try to compensate for the negative rollovers by entering in trades with positive rollovers (for example long on AUDUSD).
It's extremely dangerous and, again, has nothing to do with your method.
I am sure you know that all the pairs with good positive rollovers are close to
their highs, then why are you trying to buy AUDUSD? The moment you do it
you destroy all the basics of your approach as you can only cope with AUDUSD at these highs with a stoploss.
Yes, AUDUSD is close to its historical high....it seems a very volatile pair with frequent big swings though, so it should reach my tp at somepoint.
Using this method implies that I have to accept the fact that I will often have open position for days/weeks, hence, I have to manage negative rollovers somehow. How do you manage this?
  • #251
  • Apr 9, 2012 6:25am Apr 9, 2012 6:25am
Quoting Nacho
Hi DedMatvey,


I've read your post on the other thread. Actually I am interested in understanding your way of trading and to know abt record high/lows you found. My first answer maybe was a bit incomplete.


Could you explain further your way of trading and how to read correctly the excel chart you posted?

Thanks
Hi Nacho,
I hope you will find the below helpful

Well, WHY GROUPS?

1.Everybody knows that the main principle of trading is: BUY LOW/SELL HIGH.
But with the average of 30(+/-) most offered by brokerage companies
currency pairs you can wait for months or even years to see a high or low of an individual pair. That is why people HAVE to trade the way they do now, i.e. buying/selling miles from high/low - I agree that in trading like this the stoploss is simply necessary/obligatory.
Just a very different matter with pairs' combinations which are theoretically countless in number (I have tried way over twenty thousand in the course of work, left 4,555 for my current collection). The more data/statistics you have for studying something the bigger is a chance you will find what you are looking for.
With my groups, I have average of 15 to 50 (depending on how volatile the
previous trading week was) high/low opportunities (less than 50 distance to the high/low on my chart) every weekend (this is when I do my preparation work for the upcoming week).

2.I am sure that between anything that moves and can make up a group
(ants, bees, human beings, currencies, etc.) do exist some relations. So, I was very keen on finding, studying and understanding relations in currency groups I was making up and watching.
At first, I was going to use 100 parameters to do that. But the number turned out to have been taken from nowhere, and eventually I had to take most of those parameters out and was left with only 43 ones.
I have been working with these 43 parameters non-stop ever since.
* example of what my parameters are: what distance a group covers
per day (average)/how fast it moves(intraday)/whether it reverses
direction after a short time or keeps moving in one direction for
a longer period(days/weeks)/current rollovers, etc.
I have those in a special table of my own design, with all the parameters being divided into two parts, which I call majors and minors. This table is very helpful in selecting 3 to 8 the most attractive opportunities out of 15 to 50 mentioned above and seen on my charts/single bars.
Plus, I have a table of ratings for the groups which I have already had experience with in live market conditions (opened and closed). This one helps in minor matters, for example when I have two or more very similar opportunities to consider and I am not certain which one to choose.
Everything described above serves only one purpose -- to find one or a few combinations of currency pairs, which I am sure can do no harm to my deposit = to trade.
Lucky days to you.
  • #252
  • Edited 6:39am Apr 9, 2012 6:27am | Edited 6:39am
I would give it a rest. Seriously. There are people whose heads simply explode if anybody attacks their beloved stop loss. They simply discard the low or no average part of the discussion (because their head is already scattered to pieces). Just let them be, with their stop loss being popped on a regular basis..This thread will not go anywhere because of that so I think nacho and DedMatvey should just find another mean of communication.

I strongly believe that most of what is being thought out there is garbage, and never works. As I mentioned in one of the posts before, one of my main strategies is to enter a trade after the stop losses are being cleared. I always watch the chart and ask where are the stop losses. I want to see them popped, and then I trade.
Quoting nanningbob
You fail to recognize that alternative trading styles can be and have been successful. [/b]
  • #253
  • Apr 9, 2012 6:49am Apr 9, 2012 6:49am
Quoting attila

I would give it a rest. Seriously. There are people whose heads simply explode if anybody attacks their beloved stop loss.
lol, ever since the error of his ways was pointed out to him he is using a stop loss! Keep up there attila, you're lagging the rest of the class!

Quoting nanningbob
I use percentages for my SL
See, at least now he has some form of risk management! Ok the rest of it is pretty 'out there' but hey, there's more than one way to skin a cat!
  • #254
  • Apr 9, 2012 6:51am Apr 9, 2012 6:51am
Quoting pipmutt
lol, ever since the error of his ways was pointed out to him he is using a stop loss! Keep up there attila, you're lagging the rest of the class!
lol. Sorry man. Told ya I'm slow.
Where is that Focus Factor? Damn it..
  • #255
  • Apr 9, 2012 6:58am Apr 9, 2012 6:58am
Quoting attila

lol. Sorry man. Told ya I'm slow.
Where is that Focus Factor? Damn it..
Focus Factor.....Forex Factory.....is there some subliminal connection, I think we should be told.

  • #256
  • Apr 9, 2012 7:00am Apr 9, 2012 7:00am
Quoting pipmutt
Focus Factor.....Forex Factory.....is there a connection, I think we should be told.

Ha! I see the factory more like what's in my signature. A lot of wing flapping with no avail. Too bad they'll turn the camera off at the end of April.
  • #257
  • Apr 9, 2012 7:03am Apr 9, 2012 7:03am
Quoting attila
I would give it a rest. Seriously. There are people whose heads simply explode if anybody attacks their beloved stop loss. They simply discard the low or no average part of the discussion (because their head is already scattered to pieces). Just let them be, with their stop loss being popped on a regular basis..This thread will not go anywhere because of that so I think nacho and DedMatvey should just find another mean of communication.

I strongly believe that most of what is being thought out there is garbage, and never works. As I mentioned...
I understand, but we all use a SL at some point and end a trade. We all do that or should. After years of playing with this stuff I have found that around 1% you are probably better off killing the trade. That is my limit but I have violated that limit if I think the fundamentals are with me. If you really think about it. A guy who trades 3 million or 30 million or more at a time is not trading with a 30 or 50 pip SL nor is he highly leveraged. He is most likely trading 1:1 or 2:1. He breaks up his trading amount, lets say 3 million for an example, into several sections, lets say three and will enter the market at 1 million. If the trade is successful he will add to that position. If he thinks his analysis is wrong he will kill the trade. If he thinks his analysis is right but entered too early, he will look for his next best spot to reenter with another million trade. He keeps a third to add later. It is done all the time, all you have to do to believe this and know it is true it to look at a COT chart. One group is almost always trading the opposite of the other two. You think they arent trading multiple levels and stages. You think if they made a mistake they wont hedge their trade and wait for a better entrance or exit. Since they arent leveraged they dont have swap costs. I dont know what these SL guys are smoking but they havent met these guys. That I can tell you is a fact. Just go study a COT chart, you can see they do it.
  • #258
  • Apr 9, 2012 7:07am Apr 9, 2012 7:07am
I know exactly what your are saying. My SL is = my believing in the trade. When the trust is gone, the trade is gone. I do watch the COT too, but I mostly pay attention to the large commercials (which btw are short eur/usd at the moment)..

Edit: The market feeds off stop losses. One thing is missing in this discussion: We are allowed to trade for a very simple reason. To provide liquidity. Nothing else.

Quoting nanningbob
I understand, but we all use a SL at some point and end a trade. We all do that or should. After years of playing with this stuff I have found that around 1% you are probably better off killing the trade. That is my limit but I have violated that limit if I think the fundamentals are with me. If you really think about it. A guy who trades 3 million or 30 million or more at a time is not trading with a 30 or 50 pip SL nor is he highly leveraged. He is most likely trading 1:1 or 2:1. He breaks up his trading amount, lets say 3 million for an example,...
  • #259
  • Apr 9, 2012 7:07am Apr 9, 2012 7:07am
Quoting attila

Too bad they'll turn the camera off at the end of April.
No way! The underwater cam is great!

We need an FF cam.....
  • #260
  • Apr 9, 2012 7:09am Apr 9, 2012 7:09am
Quoting pipmutt
No way! The underwater cam is great!

We need an FF cam.....
I know, it fits perfectly. Equity under water.. LOL.
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