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  • #221
  • Apr 7, 2012 5:37pm Apr 7, 2012 5:37pm
Quoting attila

Maybe. I'm a lil slow.
lol, it can be an acquired taste and not immediately apparent!
  • #222
  • Apr 7, 2012 5:41pm Apr 7, 2012 5:41pm
Quoting pipmutt
lol, it can be an acquired taste and not immediately apparent!
I hang out at the in your face thread, dulling my senses. It's fun though..
  • #223
  • Apr 7, 2012 6:24pm Apr 7, 2012 6:24pm
Quoting attila
I disagree. If you are not consistently profitable, nothing in this world will get you out of a floating loss. To the contrary, the loss will become larger. If you are profitable, and you know what you're doing, then next to other methods, fading out of it is one way..

Here's the problem. If you hedge it is very important to ask the question: Why am I hedging? If the answer is "out of fear" you may as well close the loser and move on. Most traders are overleveraged, and when the market moves swiftly against them they hedge as a "pause" strategy....
Excellent post Atilla ! I agree with you 100%.

Blue
Master your Mind,,,Master the Market
  • #224
  • Apr 7, 2012 7:11pm Apr 7, 2012 7:11pm
Quoting bluesteele
Excellent post Atilla ! I agree with you 100%.

Blue
It's funny we argue about so many things on this forum when actually nobody is right and nobody is wrong just as a coin flip with appropriate MM is a perfectly valid strategy.. I gave up arguing about strategies some time ago, and I prefer to post naked women while shooting crap at the other thread where trading actually comes second.

Trading is a mind fuck, it's what it is.
  • #225
  • Apr 7, 2012 8:38pm Apr 7, 2012 8:38pm
Quoting attila
If you want to be successful you have to be able to buy weakness and sell strength. There's simply no way around it and I know, it's the hardest thing to do because it's completely counter intuitive.
Atilla,
buy weakness and sell strength:
ie buying at support and selling at resistance?
buying after a pull back and selling after the trend resumed

if thats the case I dont understand why that would be counter intuitive, because dont we all like to buy stuff at a discount?

what about people who buy high on a breakout and sell higher (not buying weakness)

what you are suggesting could also be counter trading: selling overbought, buying oversold.

could you go into it a bit more?
  • #226
  • Edited 9:17pm Apr 7, 2012 8:59pm | Edited 9:17pm
It can be sliced and diced ten thousand ways. My personal preference is to buy after support was broken and sell after resistance was taken. i.e after stops were cleared. One other thing I'm looking at, the Market never reverses before it screws both longs and shorts first(in a dowtnrend for example, late shorts and early longs). If you ask me to explain it EXACTLY, I can't. If you ask me how I trade, I can't tell you exactly either except that I use two different methods(market profile and some gann) to establish a bias, and then the entries are pretty much what I said above. The only indicators I use is RSI and 200 ema and a ketlner channel (lately).

Talking about discount.. yes I agree. However most want confirmation. Now you have to chose. You want confirmation (pullback, etc) then your potential loss is higher if you're wrong but there is a smaller chance to be wrong. Less confirmation, higher risk, smaller loss.. You have to find a balance, whatever each one of us is comfortable with.

Quoting yonnie
Atilla,
buy weakness and sell strength:
ie buying at support and selling at resistance?
buying after a pull back and selling after the trend resumed

if thats the case I dont understand why that would be counter intuitive, because dont we all like to buy stuff at a discount?

what about people who buy high on a breakout and sell higher (not buying weakness)

what you are suggesting could also be counter trading: selling overbought, buying oversold.

could you go into it a bit more?
  • #227
  • Apr 7, 2012 9:24pm Apr 7, 2012 9:24pm
Let's not derail the thread. Btw, I think his method works, but only in demo where trading psychology does not take over. I've done it, but I was never able to make it work when money was involved. Bummer...
  • #228
  • Apr 8, 2012 5:00am Apr 8, 2012 5:00am
Quoting Nacho
Hi all,

I want to share my strategy and get your opinions comments and views.

The strategy I'm using is very simple and has been very succesfull so far.

My rules:

1. NO leverage
I have a 1000 eur account and I'm trading only 0.01 lots right now. I will start to trade 0.02 lots as soon as I reach 2000 eur margin and so on (or you can decide to go even slower by trading 0.02 lots only when your account has 3000 eur margin etc.)

2. SMALL TP
I have a set TP of 15-20 pips on every trade, trading only pairs with low broker spread....
Hi again, Nacho
I am 57 years old, 15 of which spent in currency trading or very close to it - imagine what a long story I have behind me.
Working in a similar way you are working, counting opened/closed trades since July 15, 2011 I have these numbers: total 700 - profit 700 - loss 0. It works!
Leaving behind what is going on in the thread started by you, you remind me myself, only many years ago, when I had in my head approximately the same portion of knowledge and understanding you have now in yours. There is a long
distance between us at this very moment, but I cannot see anyone else on this
road except you and me, that's why I am real eager to help you catch up with me.
Very important: everything I am going to tell you is based on facts or taken from my own experience.
If you kindly agree to accept my help, I would offer two ways to start our cooperation for your choice:
1. if you believe and trust me at once, I can explain what mistakes you have already made, we will eliminate them (the moment you understand you've made a mistake you have to get rid of it, whatever the cost), and you will start doing right things later today, when the market opens. For this, I will need to know the two trades you are still in plus some other minor details about the terms you trade with. I can give you a number of trades which are very close to TP for the upcoming week.
If this will be your choice, we will further be communicating in a question-answer format while doing what we need to on our accounts.
2. Or you may want to first know the background of it all, in which case you have to be prepared for some lecturing (but in no case mentoring) from my side.
Whatever your reply may be, I sincerely wish you all luck in trading.
  • #229
  • Apr 8, 2012 9:45am Apr 8, 2012 9:45am
That's nice... Like I said. I've done it in demo and it worked fine. 60 trades in a month, 0 losers, but then I screwed it up with the live account... I do know there is something there but people are quick to discard new ideas. No wonder most lose at this game.

As a matter of fact, this is how I've got involved in forex even before I knew you could trade. I had two accounts one in usd one in euro and I was moving all the money from one to the other maybe two times a year. 1:1 leverage if you will. It takes a round trip to see profit, but I made about 15K in maybe two round trips without having a clue about trading..


Quoting DedMatvey
Hi again, Nacho
I am 57 years old, 15 of which spent in currency trading or very close to it - imagine what a long story I have behind me.
Working in a similar way you are working, counting opened/closed trades since July 15, 2011 I have these numbers: total 700 - profit 700 - loss 0. It works!
Leaving behind what is going on in the thread started by you, you remind me myself, only many years ago, when I had in my head approximately the same portion of knowledge and understanding you have now in yours. There is a long
distance between us at...
  • #230
  • Apr 8, 2012 11:31am Apr 8, 2012 11:31am
Quoting Nacho
Hi all,

I want to share my strategy and get your opinions comments and views.

The strategy I'm using is very simple and has been very succesfull so far.

My rules:

1. NO leverage
I have a 1000 eur account and I'm trading only 0.01 lots right now. I will start to trade 0.02 lots as soon as I reach 2000 eur margin and so on (or you can decide to go even slower by trading 0.02 lots only when your account has 3000 eur margin etc.)

2. SMALL TP
I have a set TP of 15-20 pips on every trade, trading only pairs with low broker spread.

3. NO Stop...
Nacho,

Most of what you have shared offers good potential. This part though might be concerning:

Even when the trade reverses on me and goes -200/-300 pips against me, the fact that I'm not using the leverage, makes it affordable (you can whitstand such a reversal with no leverage and still open other trades!)
The only bad thing is that a trade can stay open for days or weeks before reaching TP. But as I could see by testing, more than 90% of trades reach TP within 48 hrs.

Personally, not sure I like getting 15 or 20 pips within 48 hours, but I think the rest of your approach makes good sense.

Regards,

FX4

P.S. Continue on your journey and find your system that works for you. I am sure DedMatvey could work with you to help refine what you've got. Go for it.
Trade what you see, not what you think or feel. Let the market come to you.
  • #231
  • Apr 8, 2012 11:57am Apr 8, 2012 11:57am
Quoting attila

As a matter of fact, this is how I've got involved in forex even before I knew you could trade. I had two accounts one in usd one in euro and I was moving all the money from one to the other maybe two times a year. 1:1 leverage if you will. It takes a round trip to see profit, but I made about 15K in maybe two round trips without having a clue about trading..
Ha, I did the exact same before the explosion of online trading platforms and leverage, except more frequently than twice a year! Transaction costs were high and spread, well, spread was out the wazoo, 2 and 3c! Execution was painfully laborious and settlement seemed to take forever!

Ah the memories, we don't realize how lucky we are now!
  • #232
  • Apr 8, 2012 12:22pm Apr 8, 2012 12:22pm
Quoting DedMatvey

since July 15, 2011 I have these numbers: total 700 - profit 700 - loss 0. It works!
Of course it works, anyone can hold a trade for as long as it takes to turn profitable, it's even easier in the ranging market we've seen over the past 3+ years or so.

As I understand it only half of your 700 trades were live. Aside from that, you left out the most important numbers, risk and reward (return).

I'm extremely sceptical about strategies like this simply because I have never seen one which is viable, acceptably productive compared to traditional trading methods, or which has survived long one-way trends.

Having said that I'm always open to new ideas but so far it's just been the same old same old regurgitated 'stuff'.......
  • #233
  • Apr 8, 2012 12:43pm Apr 8, 2012 12:43pm
Quoting DedMatvey
Hi again, Nacho
I am 57 years old, 15 of which spent in currency trading or very close to it - imagine what a long story I have behind me.
Working in a similar way you are working, counting opened/closed trades since July 15, 2011 I have these numbers: total 700 - profit 700 - loss 0. It works!
Leaving behind what is going on in the thread started by you, you remind me myself, only many years ago, when I had in my head approximately the same portion of knowledge and understanding you have now in yours. There is a long
distance between us at...
Hello DedMatvey! Thanks a lot for your support!I believe in this way of trading and knowing that there are experienced traders that think the same makes me more confident about its success. So I am very willing to hear your suggestions and try to make my way more reliable. If you could also tell me where do you think I am mistaken now it surely will be useful as well.
  • #234
  • Apr 8, 2012 12:52pm Apr 8, 2012 12:52pm
Quoting FX4Newbies
Nacho,

Most of what you have shared offers good potential. This part though might be concerning:


Personally, not sure I like getting 15 or 20 pips within 48 hours, but I think the rest of your approach makes good sense.

Regards,

FX4

P.S. Continue on your journey and find your system that works for you. I am sure DedMatvey could work with you to help refine what you've got. Go for it.

Hi,

Well i'm talking about 15/20 pips per each trade, if they close fast I open new ones, max 5 at once, I lock in on average about 65/90 pips every 1 or 2 days, which is small money now that I trade 0.01, but not bad either!
  • #235
  • Apr 8, 2012 1:05pm Apr 8, 2012 1:05pm
Quoting Indrek
Very interesting discussion going on in this thread. I also prefer to hedge instead of SL, so count me in.

I must admit that reading the posts of some opponents clearly suffering by serial poster syndrome has been very boring so far. That is why I hope that most participants of the thread will focus on developing the initial idea, and not trying to prove that it does not work. It does!

Let us keep up the good work, guys!
Hi Indrek,
Could you please tell me in a little more detail about what you do to open and close your trades? I will tell you about my ways and what they are based on.
Let it be a start of the discussion inside our very small group. Who knows, with
one trader a day joining, what a team can we grow?
  • #236
  • Apr 8, 2012 2:59pm Apr 8, 2012 2:59pm
Quoting Nacho
Hello DedMatvey! Thanks a lot for your support!I believe in this way of trading and knowing that there are experienced traders that think the same makes me more confident about its success. So I am very willing to hear your suggestions and try to make my way more reliable. If you could also tell me where do you think I am mistaken now it surely will be useful as well.
Hi Nacho,
1. OANDA is not the best broker for your method, 1;50 leverage will only allow you to think of how to make a few pips per day. Have you calculated about how long it will take you to reach 2,000 eur?
My standpoint is: a professional trader should think in terms of monthly then yearly percentage adding to the initial deposit, rather than pips.
For example, if you settle, say, on 8.5% monthly, you can easily calculate your progress - 1mln/10 years. You can never build a plan with pips.
2. Your Entry Condition:
LONG when H4 PA closes above 5EMA
SHORT when H4 PA closes below 5EMA
And your comment: The only bad thing is that a trade can stay open for days or weeks before reaching TP.
What I think: these two have nothing to do with each other, it is like trying to turn on a hard rock piece at a concert of classical music. Your mistake: you are trying to use 4hr charts in decision making process for the probable
period of days and even weeks. How come? If you tell me it is good because you have 27 TP trades out of total 29, I will say that you have been lucky so far, but luck can turn its back on you any moment. For example, you say you allow yourself to have no more than 5 trades open at the same time, now you already have two (both minus), what if those minus trades start accumulating and reach your limit of five? It will mean your work frozen,
with the rollovers successfully eating up your money. Will H4 PA/5EMA help you?
3. You say: I try to compensate for the negative rollovers by entering in trades with positive rollovers (for example long on AUDUSD).
It's extremely dangerous and, again, has nothing to do with your method.
I am sure you know that all the pairs with good positive rollovers are close to
their highs, then why are you trying to buy AUDUSD? The moment you do it
you destroy all the basics of your approach as you can only cope with AUDUSD at these highs with a stoploss.

Summing up, I have explained how I see what you are doing, but it is only my
point of view, if you can clearly explain things to yourself and feel you understand them all right, then don't listen to anyone and keep moving your
way.
  • #237
  • Apr 8, 2012 3:48pm Apr 8, 2012 3:48pm
Quoting pipmutt
Of course it works, anyone can hold a trade for as long as it takes to turn profitable, it's even easier in the ranging market we've seen over the past 3+ years or so.

As I understand it only half of your 700 trades were live. Aside from that, you left out the most important numbers, risk and reward (return).

I'm extremely sceptical about strategies like this simply because I have never seen one which is viable, acceptably productive compared to traditional trading methods, or which has survived long one-way trends.

Having said that I'm...
Hi pipmutt,
Perhaps it will be a new idea to you if I say the following: my strong belief is that RISK MANAGEMENT IN CURRENCY TRADING is not a highly scientific or psychological something, it is just one side of our everyday life, like many others. In our ordinary life we calculate risks hundreds of times every day
(when crossing a street, for example) to stay rational in our decision
making on this or that matter. This process never stops. We are all very well
used to it. Only one problem: the moment we are mistaken we get into trouble... Is it anyhow different from FX?
Then why do we separate currency trading from the rest of our lives, what makes it so special? My answer is NOTHING. My coclusion is: if one can manage risks in all other situations, why cannot one manage risks here?
  • #238
  • Apr 8, 2012 4:19pm Apr 8, 2012 4:19pm
glad to know that you found each other. Please keep us in the loop and let us know how your trading benefit from each others experience. I am curious.
Hope you will prove that holy grail does exits in Forex.

Wishing you all the success.
  • #239
  • Apr 8, 2012 6:43pm Apr 8, 2012 6:43pm
Mechanization of good reason sets a technical edge;
mechanization of what interferes with good reason allows edge to go as far as discretion allows it.

Using an mm to follow through on either, only works if one has the chance to use a good reason before loss is incurred.
Increasing one's edge increases capture size and shortens both hold time and the number of times a loss is incurred.

Thus, I'd rather work on my edge
-- given I've mechanized my thoughts and actions to allow through good reason --
than discuss different mm's.


Each to their own, though. It is interesting to read the mm experts' advice.
  • #240
  • Edited 4:22am Apr 9, 2012 3:47am | Edited 4:22am
Quoting DedMatvey

Hi pipmutt,
Perhaps it will be a new idea to you if I say the following: my strong belief is that RISK MANAGEMENT IN CURRENCY TRADING is not a highly scientific or psychological something
Hi DedMatvey

I agree, it shouldn't be, nevertheless it's a big psychological issue for some people who find it difficult to condition themselves to accept a decision was wrong and to take a loss, that's why strategies like the one in this thread exist, purely to try and compensate for a psychological shortcoming and borne out of trading ignorance and inexperience.


Quoting DedMatvey

In our ordinary life we calculate risks hundreds of times every day
(when crossing a street, for example)

Then why do we separate currency trading from the rest of our lives, what makes it so special? My answer is NOTHING. My coclusion is: if one can manage risks in all other situations, why cannot one manage risks here?
Good question, why do some people find it difficult.

In our normal day-to-day lives we are constrained by boundaries, obligations, socially acceptable behaviour, laws, and some things are just the accepted norm ie looking when crossing the street. In trading it's different, we're free to do more or less exactly as we please without any boundaries or obligations, we alone have to decide what is sensible and acceptable and what isn't, and we're totally responsible for maintaining our own discipline, there's no one threatening punishment, nannying us, or helping us avoid acting irresponsibly as in our normal day-to-day lives. That, I believe, is a significant difference.


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