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  • #641
  • Mar 21, 2012 10:18pm Mar 21, 2012 10:18pm
Trade #76

Short for 100 pips. Risk 0.96%, Reward 1.00%
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The Thief of Wall Street
  • #642
  • Mar 27, 2012 9:49pm Mar 27, 2012 9:49pm
Quoting Chicky
Trade #76

Short for 100 pips. Risk 0.96%, Reward 1.00%
Trade #76 hit stoploss. About 1% Loss
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The Thief of Wall Street
  • #643
  • Mar 27, 2012 9:55pm Mar 27, 2012 9:55pm
This thread is not a trading journal, but we are testing the strength of a money management method here.

The next all trades will be based on the same strategy and principles but with a little more prudent money management method.

The next trade will also explain the basics and logic of this variation. There is much much more to this method, but it will unfold over time.
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #644
  • Apr 1, 2012 7:21pm Apr 1, 2012 7:21pm
Trade 77 First of three entries.
Long for 75 pips. Risk 1/3 of 1%.
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The Thief of Wall Street
  • #645
  • Apr 2, 2012 4:22am Apr 2, 2012 4:22am
Hi Chicky, could you please elaborate a bit on your slight change of method? Up to now you placed 100-200 pip s/l and t/p, with 1% risk. I can only assume you are using 1/3 risk to scale into a trade?
Fail better.
  • #646
  • Apr 2, 2012 7:50pm Apr 2, 2012 7:50pm
Quoting LarryDarrell
Hi Chicky, could you please elaborate a bit on your slight change of method? Up to now you placed 100-200 pip s/l and t/p, with 1% risk. I can only assume you are using 1/3 risk to scale into a trade?
Hi Larry,

I wanted to average out the entry price like you mentioned to scale into this trade. However, fell asleep and missed the second and third entries.

But anyway, entering now.
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #647
  • Apr 2, 2012 7:53pm Apr 2, 2012 7:53pm
Quoting Chicky
Hi Larry,

I wanted to average out the entry price like you mentioned to scale into this trade. However, fell asleep and missed the second and third entries.

But anyway, entering now.
I do that, I just set orders though and let it do it on it's own.

Market conditions any better for you Chicky ?? cause it's next to no use to my previous method, new method to suite is still hard work
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #648
  • Apr 2, 2012 7:56pm Apr 2, 2012 7:56pm
Trade 77 (rest of the position)
Long for 60 (dangerouly risky) pips
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The Thief of Wall Street
  • #649
  • Apr 2, 2012 8:01pm Apr 2, 2012 8:01pm
Quoting Turveyd
I do that, I just set orders though and let it do it on it's own.

Market conditions any better for you Chicky ?? cause it's next to no use to my previous method, new method to suite is still hard work
For some reason I am not comfortable with limit orders.

Market is pefectly following the book. For last three trading days, someone is constantly buying on dips soon after NY open. As long as it is above 1.3300, I will remain long for 1.35, 1.37 and 1.42.

Oanda has made some changes to its website, I now find it difficult to log on to demo and place a trade while trading live. For this reason alone, I have missed a couple of good entries.
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #650
  • Apr 2, 2012 8:21pm Apr 2, 2012 8:21pm
Hi Chicky, been reading your thread with interest..

wondered what you thought of this table...

Risk of Ruin Formula using 1% Risk / Trade
ROR% with 1 capital at risk
Win Ratio % Payoff Ratio 1:1 PR 2:1 PR 3:1 PR 4:1 PR 5:1
Win Ratio 10% 100100100100100
Win Ratio 15% 100100100100100
Win Ratio 20% 1001001001000.0485
Win Ratio 25% 10010010000
Win Ratio 30% 100100000
Win Ratio 35% 1000.701000
Win Ratio 40% 1000000
Win Ratio 45% 1000000
Win Ratio 50% 1000000
Win Ratio 55% 00000
Win Ratio 60% 00000
Win Ratio 65% 00000
Win Ratio 70% 00000
Win Ratio 75% 00000
Win Ratio 80% 00000
Win Ratio 85% 00000
Win Ratio 90% 00000

actually the image might be clearer...



So with refernce to what you are doing here, risking 1% of account balance, with 1/1 risk/reward, you need to hit 55% win loss to insure that you could never wipe your account.
Attached Image
tradewith60
  • #651
  • Apr 3, 2012 1:57am Apr 3, 2012 1:57am
Quoting 60minuteman
Hi Chicky, been reading your thread with interest..

wondered what you thought of this table...

Risk of Ruin Formula using 1% Risk / Trade
ROR% with 1 capital at risk
Win Ratio % Payoff Ratio 1:1 PR 2:1 PR 3:1 PR 4:1 PR 5:1
Win Ratio 10% 100 100 100 100 100
Win Ratio 15% 100 100 100 100 100
Win Ratio 20% 100 100 100 100 0.0485
Win Ratio 25% 100 100 100 0 0
Win Ratio 30% 100 100 0 0 0
Win Ratio 35% 100 0.701 0 0...
You brought up something that I kept as a last lesson.

Here is some food for thought.

(Kindly click at the picture below for readable version)
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The Thief of Wall Street
  • #652
  • Apr 3, 2012 2:34am Apr 3, 2012 2:34am
Quoting Chicky
Trade 77 (rest of the position)
Long for 60 (dangerouly risky) pips
Reposting the chart. The previous chart doesn't show price, tp and sl of the trade. I apologize for this overlook.

Have not checked trade history, but I think first part of Trade 77 must have hit sl. This trade tries to bring back that 1/3rd loss as well. Let's see how it goes.
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The Thief of Wall Street
  • #653
  • Apr 3, 2012 6:44pm Apr 3, 2012 6:44pm
Quoting Chicky
For some reason I am not comfortable with limit orders.

Market is pefectly following the book. For last three trading days, someone is constantly buying on dips soon after NY open. As long as it is above 1.3300, I will remain long for 1.35, 1.37 and 1.42.

Oanda has made some changes to its website, I now find it difficult to log on to demo and place a trade while trading live. For this reason alone, I have missed a couple of good entries.
If the plan was to enter on X and Y then why not just use Limits, ofcourse a brain thinking hmmm is this wise might be better at times and other times you'll think nah and it woulda worked so you can't win.

I generally run a limit 1/2 way to my SL, same SL, 1/2 the cost and more upside potential can't beat it

Woulda thought fast trend woulda worked for you well, break outs keep going a 100+ pips which should be enough to hit your TP.

As I was trading the chop with a large SL and barely losing, I'm not liking this as I'm barely profiting
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #654
  • Edited 6:39am Apr 4, 2012 4:34am | Edited 6:39am
Thanks Chicky for a great thread. As someone who has been successful in other areas of trading by studious repetition that others would consider futile/pointless, I can appreciate the importance of your lessons learnt.

In post 491 you said:

Quoting Chicky
FX, as mentioned earlier, I tried every thing imaginable but nothing works better than this. This method is based on very simple logic and can go with any kind of technical or fundamental tool one may like to use for speculation.
Was it important for you to consider not just that price may or may not respect certain levels, but how it reacts when it gets to those levels? For instance, if I can give some time to analysing reactions and still get a decent price for my trade which I consider represents value based on current market conditions, would it not be possible to filter out some trades?

I appreciate this may not be pertinent to the overall theme of the thread, which is mainly focused on money management rather than trade strategy.

Edit: My questions answered by subsequent posts. Should read the entire thread before posting...
  • #655
  • Apr 6, 2012 11:20pm Apr 6, 2012 11:20pm
Quoting Turveyd
If the plan was to enter on X and Y then why not just use Limits, ofcourse a brain thinking hmmm is this wise might be better at times and other times you'll think nah and it woulda worked so you can't win.

I generally run a limit 1/2 way to my SL, same SL, 1/2 the cost and more upside potential can't beat it

Woulda thought fast trend woulda worked for you well, break outs keep going a 100+ pips which should be enough to hit your TP.

As I was trading the chop with a large SL and barely losing, I'm not liking this as I'm barely profiting...
I am working on this. Maybe I use limit orders at key levels.
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #656
  • Apr 6, 2012 11:50pm Apr 6, 2012 11:50pm
Quoting Chicky
Trade 77 (rest of the position)
Long for 60 (dangerouly risky) pips
Trade 77 hit sl. About 1.35% loss.

Trade 78 entered - One full position.
Long for about 130 pips but this trade is based on price not number of pips (tp 1.3223 as it may try to settle near 1.3250).

Entered at odd time over the weekend with 10 pip spread.
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The Thief of Wall Street
  • #657
  • Apr 7, 2012 12:23am Apr 7, 2012 12:23am
Three perfectly wrong trades.

The first stoploss is of our short trade #76 that hit sl just before reversal.

The next two stoplosses relate to our long trade #77. But we were aware of the risk in this trade.
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The Thief of Wall Street
  • #658
  • Apr 7, 2012 1:01am Apr 7, 2012 1:01am
Something that helped a lot was when I realized that trading is really about 3 things and I'd like to add a 4th. Without all 3 legs a stool will not stand, and the same goes for trading. You need all 3 parts to succeed.

1. Technical Analysis = know the levels, trend, pivot points
2. Sentiment = what is the feeling on the street, forums, news, etc
3. Fundamentals = what is actually happening in the economy?

and

4. YOU! You have to be psychologically, emotionally, and feel that you deserve success. You can't be unsuccessful in life and then all of a sudden be a successful trader. Keep your life, relationships, and health (mentally, spiritually, and physically) and you will unlock the door to your trading success!

All the best to everyone and trade what you see happening, not what you want to happen.
  • #659
  • Edited 8:07pm Apr 7, 2012 6:08pm | Edited 8:07pm
Quoting daveyb
...............
and

4. YOU! You have to be psychologically, emotionally, and feel that you deserve success. You can't be unsuccessful in life and then all of a sudden be a successful trader. Keep your life, relationships, and health (mentally, spiritually, and physically) and you will unlock the door to your trading success!.......
Very well said.

Maybe I am one of the posters here who have seen many more years of life than others. Rode many ups and downs of life during all those years. I believe this gives me a right to add something to what you said.

1. Never look back, if you look back, look in that direction only to see what you have gained and learned and how it can help you in your future. If you are fighting and making advances, it will be foolish to turn back and start re-building a bridge that was destroyed. Forget about the past and look forward at your aim. If things were not right in the past and backlog needs to be fixed, at least start doing things right for the future and worry about the backlog later.

2. Set a goal, higher the better. During teenage, I learned that "We are much more stronger than we believe, .................much much more stronger than our thoughts". Once you have set a goal, start working towards it. Cold blooded try to find a solution for every hurdle you face. If you suffer a loss or damage of whatever nature, take it easy and keep on fixing things and moving forward.

3. Believe that you will succeed. There is no way one cannot succeed. If there is a will, there is a way. Think about all your extra-ordinary past achievements, you never believed you were capable of performing so well but you did. You can do similar things in the future. Nothing is harder than a begining. If you do not surrender in the begining, you have already achieved 90% and as you go along you find new ways of nearing your goal.

Once you understand what has been said above, see the magic of nature. You will find this world full of opportunities and solutions to all problems you ever encounter would be handy.

Many of us do not achieve success in whatever we want to do or do not make as much money as we would like to make ONLY BECAUSE WE DO NOT WANT THESE ACHIEVEMENTS. Many lotto multi-millionaires either give back their lotto winnings in charity or lose them in other ventures only because in their sub-concious mind it is programed that they are bound to remain poor or average.
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #660
  • Apr 7, 2012 8:28pm Apr 7, 2012 8:28pm
wise words, Chicky..........i am wondering if in your opinion the interventions of central banks can be reasonably speculated or predicted? enjoyed the read. thanks
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