Trading is a probability game (can be mastered) | Forex Factory

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Trading is a probability game (can be mastered)

  • #1
  • First Post: Apr 4, 2012 9:46pm Apr 4, 2012 9:46pm
how about posting edges(probabilities) over here

exchanging experiences makes it more powerful and hence too useful also

lets have a probability charting blast
finding A M S
  • #2
  • Apr 4, 2012 10:05pm Apr 4, 2012 10:05pm
EU short probability at 61.8%(3181) from day's low 3106

good to claim 20 pips

we are in downward momemtum cycle
hence this might be a safe trade also

below chart has some good view of the edge
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 164.GIF Size: 53 KB
finding A M S
  • #3
  • Apr 4, 2012 11:30pm Apr 4, 2012 11:30pm
Quoting prashant7
EU short probability at 61.8%(3181) from day's low 3106

good to claim 20 pips

we are in downward momemtum cycle
hence this might be a safe trade also

below chart has some good view of the edge
LOL....u using fibonnaci tools and changed it to your so called probability game???? come on man...
I trade to live
  • #4
  • Apr 4, 2012 11:46pm Apr 4, 2012 11:46pm
Quoting UbuFamily
LOL....u using fibonnaci tools and changed it to your so called probability game???? come on man...

HEY its edges ( probabilities ) it includes fibs , ema , S&R , murray math and etc

probabilities is not a tool but this is really a best way to master the FX

do you get it
finding A M S
  • #5
  • Apr 4, 2012 11:59pm Apr 4, 2012 11:59pm
Quoting prashant7
HEY its edges ( probabilities ) it includes fibs , ema , S&R , murray math and etc

probabilities is not a tool but this is really a best way to master the FX

do you get it
LOL of course I know probabilities....if probabilities is the best way to master FX, why not all the seniors and proffesional in here practise that then? if probabilities is the best then the right analysis of using indis and fundis should be terminated because it caused lose to people right..

so here i am stating that, its not i'm denying your thread here but don't u think the newbies that wanted to learn in forex here could get confused? every indicators had it own unique analysis and let's keep it that way...

Finally, I don't blame u for making it a probabilities game because i know somebody in my family believing that too, but what i can say, IMHO, if trading is a probabilities game, then trading is more alike a gambling businesss....
I trade to live
  • #6
  • Apr 5, 2012 12:13am Apr 5, 2012 12:13am
Quoting UbuFamily
LOL of course I know probabilities....if probabilities is the best way to master FX, why not all the seniors and proffesional in here practise that then? if probabilities is the best then the right analysis of using indis and fundis should be terminated because it caused lose to people right..

so here i am stating that, its not i'm denying your thread here but don't u think the newbies that wanted to learn in forex here could get confused? every indicators had it own unique analysis and let's keep it that way...

Finally, I don't blame u...
Let me give an example : if EU gets to 1.3250 ( see the chart ) don't you try to sell it ( strong resistance ) take this subject as edge instead of probability , then you may find it easy with my point of view .

edges are nothing but a higher probability of the move which can happen in the market .
as anything is possible in fx , instead of predicting you can say it as an edge or ( probability of one happening over the other )

This subject is little hard to get , but if you understand this then you may find it easy to handle .
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 166.GIF Size: 54 KB
finding A M S
  • #7
  • Apr 5, 2012 12:33am Apr 5, 2012 12:33am
Quoting prashant7
Let me give an example : if EU gets to 1.3250 ( see the chart ) don't you try to sell it ( strong resistance ) take this subject as edge instead of probability , then you may find it easy with my point of view .

edges are nothing but a higher probability of the move which can happen in the market .
as anything is possible in fx , instead of predicting you can say it as an edge or ( probability of one happening over the other )

This subject is little hard to get , but if you understand this then you may find it easy to handle .
ok ok i get what u mean...the fact that every traders have their own style is extremely true....i'm a scalper bro...Oya feel free to visit cable thread...its my home..but only cable are discussed there though...see ya
I trade to live
  • #8
  • Apr 5, 2012 12:38am Apr 5, 2012 12:38am
Quoting UbuFamily
ok ok i get what u mean...the fact that every traders have their own style is extremely true....i'm a scalper bro...Oya feel free to visit cable thread...its my home..but only cable are discussed there though...see ya
fine . will browse cable in free time. ok bye for now , have to visit bank today as its holiday ( good friday ) tomorrow . good trades for all of you ,trade safe .
finding A M S
  • #9
  • Apr 5, 2012 1:15am Apr 5, 2012 1:15am
Quoting prashant7
fine . will browse cable in free time. ok bye for now , have to visit bank today as its holiday ( good friday ) tomorrow . good trades for all of you ,trade safe .
yea same goes here for holy friday...bye
I trade to live
  • #10
  • Jul 8, 2020 10:35am Jul 8, 2020 10:35am
Quoting prashant7
EU short probability at 61.8%(3181) from day's low 3106 good to claim 20 pips we are in downward momemtum cycle hence this might be a safe trade also below chart has some good view of the edge {image}
nice graph
in God i trust
  • #11
  • Jul 10, 2020 3:40am Jul 10, 2020 3:40am
Forex market is the high volatility market where the probability of the future is estimated by doing fundamental and technical analysis. One can play this trading game well if trader has advanced skills and knowledge.
  • #12
  • Jul 17, 2020 8:58am Jul 17, 2020 8:58am
After many times through the years watching this Mark Douglas seminar about how to think in probabilities:
Inserted Video

I've noticed that we don't just need to look for the probabilities of entries, but for every kinds of events that happen with a market. For example, in the markets that I trade, I've found that 51% of the time that the price reaches the high or low of the previous day, it will provide a bounce of X points through time. I think researching this kind of probabilities for as many situations as possible, can help a lot to create methods for entries and exits with an edge, and to reinforce the learning process .

Cheers,
  • #13
  • Last Post: Jul 25, 2020 2:41pm Jul 25, 2020 2:41pm
There is a lot of statistics in the forex technical analysis. This is how various market indicators are developed, by observing occurrences on the market. Depending on a strategy, combination of these indicators might provide good trading results
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