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  • #81
  • Apr 3, 2012 1:19pm Apr 3, 2012 1:19pm
Quote
So ... you have 4-500 pips gained, but your loss is now 800.
No, the loss is not 800.
It is the initial distance + the additional distance(s) of additional locks.

And I sometimes decrease the distance.

Somehow you want to believe that I make 50 wrong unlocks in a row,
but my experience is that I make 1 or 2 and then the market
turns enough in the direction I need and I make breakeven or profits.

In a big move of 800 or more Pips, there are plenty of good pullbacks
and bounces from strong S/R levels where I can unlock and decrease
the needed distance to be.
I usually need 20 - 50 Pips to get to BE.

And if you donīt mind looking at H4-charts, you will easily find
pullbacks of 100 - 200 Pips or more during such a good moves.

But even if I hold the losing position for the whole 800 Pips,
finally the trend will change and then move 500 Pips or more
into the direction while I only need 50 or 60 Pips to break even
on my initial position.

Would you grab 60 Pips from a 500 Pips move when your pending order
is at a level where price doesnīt go for the next 5 months

I grab 60 Pips from a 100 Pips move without stress.
Especially when 60 Pips translate to 1 - 2 % risk.
I did it with 20 % risk without stress.

I am not bragging here but I simply have the facts on my side and the experience. The facts can be seen in historical charts and my experience
I see in when I am looking into the mirror after waking up .
  • #82
  • Apr 3, 2012 1:19pm Apr 3, 2012 1:19pm
LazyPawn -


Any relationship with LazyPawn on ICC ?







Quoting LazyPawn
It can be, if the market is in a tight range, as I already said. The big problem is what happens when it starts trending.

The problem is the next: You buy ... and it happens to be a top. The market drops 800 pips after that. During that 800 pip drop you open some shorts and get some pips selling, but you never get the entire 800 pip distance. You are lucky if you catch around 4-500. Because you don't open the short at exactly the same point as the previous one was closed. So ... you have 4-500 pips gained, but your loss is now 800. One of the...
  • #83
  • Apr 3, 2012 1:26pm Apr 3, 2012 1:26pm
Quoting fxtr51
No, the loss is not 800.
It is the initial distance + the additional distance(s) of additional locks.

And I sometimes decrease the distance.

Somehow you want to believe that I make 50 wrong unlocks in a row,
but my experience is that I make 1 or 2 and then the market
turns enough in the direction I need and I make breakeven or profits.

In a big move of 800 or more Pips, there are plenty of good pullbacks
and bounces from strong S/R levels where I can unlock and decrease
the needed distance to be.
I usually need 20 - 50 Pips to get to BE.

And if you donīt mind looking at H4-charts, you will easily find
pullbacks of 100 - 200 Pips or more during such a good moves.

But even if I hold the losing position for the whole 800 Pips,
finally the trend will change and then move 500 Pips or more
into the direction while I only need 50 or 60 Pips to break even
on my initial position.

Would you grab 60 Pips from a 500 Pips move when your pending order
is at a level where price doesnīt go for the next 5 months

I grab 60 Pips from a 100 Pips move without stress.
Especially when 60 Pips translate to 1 - 2 % risk.
I did it with 20 % risk without stress.

I am not bragging here but I simply have the facts on my side and the experience. The facts can be seen in historical charts and my experience
I see in when I am looking into the mirror after waking up .

fxtr51, the guy just doesn't get it!

You provided great explanation, pictures, examples, math, you just can't explain it better (nobody can!) - but he doesn't even want to try! It is much easier just to say: "it doesn't work because it can't work". A great argument, isn't it?

Of course, if some idiot starts using locking tomorrow without any home work he will blow up his account. But if somebody trades demo let's say 3-4 months then he would master it and he would succeed.
Gentlemen always play by the rules. If they can't, they change the rules.
  • #84
  • Apr 3, 2012 1:52pm Apr 3, 2012 1:52pm
Quoting Favorite
fxtr51, the guy just doesn't get it!

You provided great explanation, pictures, examples, math, you just can't explain it better (nobody can!) - but he doesn't even want to try! It is much easier just to say: "it doesn't work because it can't work". A great argument, isn't it?

Of course, if some idiot starts using locking tomorrow without any home work he will blow up his account. But if somebody trades demo let's say 3-4 months then he would master it and he would succeed.
Favorite,
I had a few discussions with experienced traders and none of them
had an argument which held water.
Everything was fabricated out of thin air, like taking 30 to 50 losing
setups in a row.

One of my entry strategies is from the threads of 60minuteman.
Buying only above 50 SMA and selling only below it .... on a H4 chart.
signals taken from inside bars and engulfing bars.

If the doubters would just take the time, open a H4 chart and plot a
50 simple moving average on it ... and for easier visualization use
my 2 indicators for the signals .....
and then tell me they would make 30 wrong entries in a row,
they should delete all Mt4 and Forex stuff on their PC and earn their living
with something else
because looking at such a chart, you can hardly find 2 or 3 losing
entries in a row on any chart , most of the times only 1 at the exhaustion
of a trend.

So, even when I start with a 5% risk and hedge it and with bad luck
make 2 additional locks and have a 8 % risk floating in loss,
as soon as price goes to the other side of the 50 SMA,
there will be plenty of levels to unlock and ride to breakeven or into profits.

The whole lock unlock thing is not a big mystery.
It is simple, but simple does not mean "easy".
Because it requires patience and discipline and experience and knowledge
of price patterns and S/R, basic stuff, which a newbie cannot know.

Enough said: I have to lock and unlock a few more ...
  • #85
  • Apr 3, 2012 1:57pm Apr 3, 2012 1:57pm
Quoting fxtr51
If the doubters would just take the time, open a H4 chart and plot a 50 simple moving average on it ... and for easier visualization use my 2 indicators for the signals .....
and then tell me they would make 30 wrong entries in a row,
they should delete all Mt4 and Forex stuff on their PC and earn their living with something else



Quoting fxtr51

The whole lock unlock thing is not a big mystery.
It is simple, but simple does not mean "easy".
Because it requires patience and discipline and experience and knowledge
of price patterns and S/R, basic stuff, which a newbie cannot know.
Well said!
Gentlemen always play by the rules. If they can't, they change the rules.
  • #86
  • Apr 3, 2012 1:59pm Apr 3, 2012 1:59pm
fxtr51,

I see that you don't trust books and experienced traders. You still think your method works because it has worked for a few months in some ranging markets. Please tell me what you do when you buy at 1.30 and the price starts dropping. Let's take this concrete example. When exactly do you open the first short, and when do you take profit on it? Then I'm ready to continue with the next market move. Or if you prefer I can also show you a chart from the past (I won't tell you what pair) and go with you bar by bar - you tell me your trading decisions. I can guarantee that you lose big.

esprit - yes, same person.
  • #87
  • Apr 3, 2012 2:05pm Apr 3, 2012 2:05pm
very interesting link, i'll for sure to watch it. thanks.

but "hedging is a strategy"?

i reckon it is NOT, at least in the sense of Nacho or Fxtr. hedging is just a trading style or basis, at most.

i heard that on streets, the hedging is actually for "portfolio manegement".

the key is to maintain balanced (double sides protected), when the trader is quite sure (QUITE sure), he adds/subtracts a little from one side, if the market moves right, he'll exit with a small % profit. he may keep adding positions (in order to catch the trend) for a while. but at the end of day, if he kept going the wrong direction, he still finally end-up cutting losers (from his addings).

the hedging boasted in this thread is really different from that above. fxtr is in fact saying that he trades, very frequently, when wrong, he'll hedge; when right, he'll take profit. this is such a perfect world, an utopian......

the truth is, this way can survive today, tomorrow, this year, even next 3 yrs......

but ultimately, in the long-term trading sense, it will fail.

think it the other way,
if fxtr can read the market that sharply, why not just SL and put another trade?
if fxtr can NOT read it that sharply, why would he be so confident that the "market will return 100~200 pips" right after he exit one side of a hedge?

it will come, that a trader find that he has lock-unlock for 10 times, and he's still trapped in a hedge; the only difference between 10 times later and before is that the distance (drawdown) between two sides are much much larger.

i in fact would not post this much since there is little interest to me. my post only serves two purposes:

1. inexperienced new comers should be aware of the "success" of hedge traders. at least in this world, no one is rich because he hedges.

2. does one really ask himself is there in this world such a simple & effective way to never lose but win only using the magic "hedge"?

the market exists to go to a direction....... this is the fundamental.

btw, i always smile when i see ppl saying "demo after 4 or 5 months, you'll learn it". c'mon, search FF for those threads, many yrs ago they were already there....... and dead now. i for sure cannot prove u r wrong today.

Quoting esprit
Hedging is a strategy that you can use to limit your risk. It takes a lot of experience and a magnitude of studying to learn, but the rewards are much greater then many other strategies.

Here is a link that is very useful: http://oyc.yale.edu/economics/econ-251
and will teach you how to properly use hedging.
  • #88
  • Apr 3, 2012 2:08pm Apr 3, 2012 2:08pm
LazyPawn,

Well thats good to know, we had a few games in the past. Anyway don't be so critical of what these guys are writing here. There are many books as you know , and you can employ hedging to make a great profit. I do, but I do it with correlated pairs, and have now for about 6 years.

I trade standard systems of S/R and simple SMA 30,50,100,200, but I employ correlated hedging on the 15% of failed setups, and it is a very good strategy.
  • #89
  • Apr 3, 2012 2:26pm Apr 3, 2012 2:26pm
charvo,

You make some excellent points there. I am not trying to be confrontational - that should be obvious. It's really sad to see the same history repeating itself over and over again - accounts getting blown every time an inexperienced trader rediscovers martingale, grid trading, hedging and other similar techniques. But I don't know why I'm wasting my time instead of just letting them find the truth the hard way.
  • #90
  • Apr 3, 2012 2:29pm Apr 3, 2012 2:29pm
Hedging is a strategy. Why not? A strategy is a methodology that is followed with a defined plan that seeks to achieve a desired outcome.

When you open a hedge, of any type. I use a triangular hedge in Forex, but could just as easily be a pairs trade ( GM, FORD ) in equities or Gold / AUD; you seek to offset your risk.

The reason why you would hedge your trade, when it goes "against" your "idea" of a direction, is to simply profit from a market cycle.

If you trade in a general direction of the market ( say Daily ), you can always run into situations, where you will have short term fractal corrections.

You will be stoped out on many of these, while the primary trend will continue....

But that is pretty obvious and I am sure you know that.

Anyway I am only posting this to help the few that want to learn, and I always try to provide solid information behind the ideas. After all any strategy plan etc has to be based on solid foundation.




Quoting charvo
very interesting link, i'll for sure to watch it. thanks.

but "hedging is a strategy"?

i reckon it is NOT, at least in the sense of Nacho or Fxtr. hedging is just a trading style or basis, at most.

i heard that on streets, the hedging is actually for "portfolio manegement".

the key is to maintain balanced (double sides protected), when the trader is quite sure (QUITE sure), he adds/subtracts a little from one side, if the market moves right, he'll exit with a small % profit. he may keep adding positions (in order to catch the...
  • #91
  • Apr 3, 2012 2:56pm Apr 3, 2012 2:56pm
Quoting charvo
the truth is, this way can survive today, tomorrow, this year, even next 3 yrs......

but ultimately, in the long-term trading sense, it will fail.

btw, i always smile when i see ppl saying "demo after 4 or 5 months, you'll learn it". c'mon, search FF for those threads, many yrs ago they were already there....... and dead now. i for sure cannot prove u r wrong today.

Quoting esprit
Anyway don't be so critical of what these guys are writing here. There are many books as you know , and you can employ hedging to make a great profit. I do, but I do it with correlated pairs, and have now for about 6 years.
esprit, as you can see, charvo posted his post before your post, that's why he's talking about 3 years. Otherwise he would say "10 years" or something like this.

Of course, 3-4 months demo is nothing, and 3 years live is nothing, and 6 years live is nothing, and if you come here in 25 years and say "I do it for 30 years" somebody would say that 30 years is nothing, let's see you in 50 years...
Gentlemen always play by the rules. If they can't, they change the rules.
  • #92
  • Apr 3, 2012 3:01pm Apr 3, 2012 3:01pm
Well...

I personally do not subscribe to the demo mentality. Demo is great for learning the platform or statistical testing, but that's about it. You need to trade a real account to get a feel for any method. Even if that account is a mini or micro, but demo just doesn't cut it.

That is why Nacho will succeed, even if this style will not fit him, he is using a real account, where there are real emotions and artifacts involved.



Quoting Favorite
esprit, as you can see, charvo posted his post before your post, that's why he's talking about 3 years. Otherwise he would say "10 years" or something like this.

Of course, 3-4 months demo is nothing, and 3 years live is nothing, and 6 years live is nothing, and if you come here in 25 years and say "I do it for 30 years" somebody would say that 30 years is nothing, let's see you in 50 years...
  • #93
  • Apr 3, 2012 3:07pm Apr 3, 2012 3:07pm
Quoting esprit
Well...

I personally do not subscribe to the demo mentality. Demo is great for learning the platform or statistical testing, but that's about it. You need to trade a real account to get a feel for any method. Even if that account is a mini or micro, but demo just doesn't cut it.
Sure, it depends on the personality. When I say "demo" I mean "training".

When I test a new system I always trade live but a VERY small (0.01) lot size, but some people can't do it, so they should demo instead.
Gentlemen always play by the rules. If they can't, they change the rules.
  • #94
  • Edited 2:50am Apr 4, 2012 2:40am | Edited 2:50am
Quoting nanningbob
Hi 2+2, not really interested in debating in another guys thread, but he has the right idea if he is interested in trading safely and long term. If I understand his system and lot size he probably would do around 2-5% a month which is much better than a bank or bonds at 3% a year. However, he doesnt have a place where he will take a loss, something I would do. So that leaves it open to question. Anyway, have fun, I am going to respect another's thread and leave him teach his own system. If it has merit people will follow, if not, it will die. :...
How convenient that you don't want to debate this again since myself and a few others proved how flawed and dangerous the logic is in trading without a stop loss.

2-5% a month trading without a stop loss? Really? Yea you might make 2-5% for a few months then one trade goes into drawdown and wipes all of it away in an instant. It not only takes your profit away, it then eats your principal balance. Then what Bob? Then you just hang in there for years collecting a miniscule amount of interest? By the time you get back to breakeven you've wasted years. Bob, you have a propensity to disregard time and how it relates to opportunity cost. Like I said, if you're going to risk dollars for pennies then you might as well put the money in a bond or cd. Now if you want to trade like the best of them, start using stops and risking pennies for dollars. That is how you take advantage of compounding and achieve a nice return. A return well worth the time. Good luck my friend.
  • #95
  • Apr 4, 2012 3:56am Apr 4, 2012 3:56am
Quoting fxtr51
Why do you assume that my overall profit is not bigger than
trading the conventional sl way ?

Example: 3 x SL hit, then 1 winner.
All with 1 % risk.

The SL-believer has this result:
-1 , -1 , -1 , + 1 = - 2 % net.

The lock-unlocker has this result:
0 , 0 , 0 , + 1 = + 1 % net.

In my books +1% is bigger than - 2 % loss.

Then the normal trader has only losses and I will end up in breakeven or profit.

esprit, great input from you. Thank you very much.

First off, i find this really an interesting concept which came to my mind before, but never actually had a proper plan and never pursued it.
My question is
1)how many pips do you let a trade go against you before setting an opposing-trade(lock)?
2) You just put an opposite trade, price moved 5 pips further against you(i.e5 pips in favor of lock) and then it starts back in favor of your original trade. What do you do in that scenario? Do you treat you counter trade as if it was the original trade(reverse trades psychologically)? Or you just unlock for a small loss hoping to make up for it with ur original trade?
  • #96
  • Apr 4, 2012 5:22am Apr 4, 2012 5:22am
Quoting 2+2=4ex
How convenient that you don't want to debate this again since myself and a few others proved how flawed and dangerous the logic is in trading without a stop loss.

2-5% a month trading without a stop loss? Really? Yea you might make 2-5% for a few months then one trade goes into drawdown and wipes all of it away in an instant. It not only takes your profit away, it then eats your principal balance. Then what Bob? Then you just hang in there for years collecting a miniscule amount of interest? By the time you get back to breakeven you've wasted...
Why debate you, you dont even understand that a trade would have to go almost 100,000 pips in the hole to wipe out the account. You never have and you never will understand the concept. So It is not worth my bother.

Many professional people trade differently than you propose. I can prove that by looking at a COT chart. There is one group always trading contrary to the other two. Therefore people with huge sums of money (so large they have to report their trades by law) trade differently than you propose. They do not trade high leverage, large lots to account size and dont use a tight SL. So good luck.

Oh since we last met my account that I started with 1400 ( I started with a thousand and later added 400) and you laughed because it was around 2000 is now approaching 2700. hmmmmmm penny garbage but that is not the point. The point will be is anyone with 1000 bucks can trade and make it grow. I know you couldnt teach anyone to do that.
  • #97
  • Apr 4, 2012 5:46am Apr 4, 2012 5:46am
Quoting grechmar
1)how many pips do you let a trade go against you before setting an opposing-trade(lock)?
I am not different from the stop-loss-people, very conservative indeed.
Where do you place your SL ?
Depends on the timeframe, normal thing is
the last swing high/low or strong S/R level etc.

Thatīs the level I lurk for a pending order in opposite direction to
the active order.

Somehow general rule: Where the experienced trader places his SL,
I have my pending order, hoping it will not get triggered.

Quote
2) You just put an opposite trade, price moved 5 pips further against you(i.e5 pips in favor of lock) and then it starts back in favor of your original trade. What do you do in that scenario? Do you treat you counter trade as if it was the original trade(reverse trades psychologically)? Or you just unlock for a small loss hoping to make up for it with ur original trade?
I do nothing but wait for a good setup to unlock.
5 Pips , no, maybe on a M1 chart, but I donīt trade M1 anymore.
I prefer H1 und higher.

Waiting is the main thing in lock-unlock.

Actually it is very very boring because every 4 hours or every day
I look on the chart only to see that there is not yet a good setup.

The normal trader on H4 has the same problem - or advantage, depending from what viewpoint you judge it.
Thatīs why I watch at least 16 pairs with my dashboard.
I need entries, I am hungry for entries.

It all depends on what the market is doing. Can take 2 days or 1 week
until there is a good setup where I close one of those orders in profit.
Can be the initial one or the hedge order, that depends on price action.

On M15 this would be faster.
There is a commercial method I have on my harddrive (Forex Power Strategy or something like that). That guy trades on M5 and M15 with Bollinger Bands and Stoch and Reversal candle patterns.
He makes 8 - 20 % daily. Amazing. Simple but effective.
He is a stop-loss-believer.

I could trade his method with lock-unlock too and probably will,
but right now I donīt have the time, it is too fast and since
I am writing books here on the forum, I have no time left
for proper trading because of all the naysayers.

Not really, because I could just ignore them, it is my decision.
I sometimes like to question strongholds of false belief-patterns.

I treat a hedge like a failed setup on which I donīt take the loss
and move on, but I make a breakeven or profit on the failed setup.

It is something like "oh no, another jerk. Why canīt I only take
those setups which run straight to the TP ?
Ok, I will analyze the thing and accept that nobody can only
take profitable setups.
And now I will make the best out of it and enjoy the guaranteed
breakeven or profit and move on.
Enough new setups for me all over the place.

As long as my money-management allows it, I will trade each new setup
as it is the very first setup I find.
Therefore it can happen that I close my profitable leg there
and open a new position there which points to the level where
my floating-loss-order is sitting.

Those who donīt understand the concept will say: You are averaging now, donīt you ?
I say: No, it is a new cycle.
Has nothing to do with the uncompleted other cycle.

I hope you understand that I think in cycles.
A completed cycle can be 1 trade which hits TP
or 2 trades (opposite direction) where 1 is closed in profit or zero
and the other is closed in loss or zero or profit and the
overall result is a breakeven or a profit.

Ok , I got a chart here. GBPJPY on H4.
Should I unlock ?
A very strong Demand level is reached.
Price could break it downwards, who knows ?
Or could bounce off and run up in the channel again.
Who knows ?

Sam Seiden would buy, right ?
Or not ?
And place SL below the strong level.

So I could just speculate that price will move up again.
In that case I would close the Short in profit and wait
and place my pending short below the area.

Or I could just wait for confirmation, for a real break and wait
for a definite trend reversal upwards and unlock there.

Or just let it do its thing, maybe placing a TP for the Short somewhere
around its Open Price in case price wants to test the high of the channel
again.

Iīll tell you what I do - but this is not a rule or the right thing to do.
I just wait.
There is a triple top on the chart. And the Support is being tested the fourth time. To me it looks like it will break through the support,
but I am not a fortune teller. I absolutely donīt know
where price will go.
Who does ?

I wait for the breakthrough and let my short run and keep the long open.
Maybe others have better ideas or know what price will do ...
I just wait ...

For those who say: Oh, this is too boring, it is too much work and speculating, I say:
Then take your loss and speculate where you can enter to recover from your loss.
We both speculate, right ?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Unlock or wait.jpg Size: 134 KB
  • #98
  • Apr 4, 2012 6:19am Apr 4, 2012 6:19am
Quoting fxtr51
I am not different from the stop-loss-people, very conservative indeed.
Where do you place your SL ?
Depends on the timeframe, normal thing is
the last swing high/low or strong S/R level etc.
Hmm, interesting indeed. So let me see if i understand, eg. My opposite-trade(lock) gets activated, moves 30 pipps in the direction of the lock and stalls. It does not seem to me as a good set-up to unlock. However, prices reverses and goes in favor of the original trade. Lock trade is now -40 pips while the original position is +20pips. What do you do now?

As in your pic above you would leave the lock trade open and let the original trade run, right?
If price does manage to penetrate would you increase your sell position(with a lock trade attached in case)?

Besides this, i trade the 15TF and sometimes the 1hrTF. I guess this works well with these too? And how much time did it take you to become consistent with this MM method?
  • #99
  • Apr 4, 2012 6:28am Apr 4, 2012 6:28am
Quote
Hmm, interesting indeed. So let me see if i understand, eg. My opposite-trade(lock) gets activated, moves 30 pipps in the direction of the lock and stalls. It does not seem to me as a good set-up to unlock. However, prices reverses and goes in favor of the original trade. Lock trade is now -40 pips while the original position is +20pips. What do you do now?
It is impossible to give general rules. Depends on the timeframe, on SR-levels, on Fib-levels etc.

Quote
As in your pic above you would leave the lock trade open and let the original trade run, right?
If price does manage to penetrate would you increase your sell position(with a lock trade attached in case)?
I donīt increase any of my positions.
It will be either 1 position which ends in TP or BE or somewhere I close
it in profit
or 2 positions. I donīt add to any of these.

Quote
Besides this, i trade the 15TF and sometimes the 1hrTF. I guess this works well with these too? And how much time did it take you to become consistent with this MM method?
Took me only 1 day. ( + 6 years experience in forex )

Favorite locks-unlocks on M15 if I remember correctly. It is possible but
only for those who mastered it.
  • #100
  • Apr 4, 2012 6:31am Apr 4, 2012 6:31am
Quoting nanningbob
Oh since we last met my account that I started with 1400 ( I started with a thousand and later added 400) and you laughed because it was around 2000 is now approaching 2700. hmmmmmm penny garbage but that is not the point. The point will be is anyone with 1000 bucks can trade and make it grow. I know you couldnt teach anyone to do that.
95 % of all traders dream about such a growth but only lose.

I admit that prefer lock-unlock because I can start with higher risk
but your method(s) certainly are great.
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