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  • #61
  • Apr 3, 2012 4:34pm Apr 3, 2012 4:34pm
Quoting scalpz
Its a close up of the post above at post 49
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...72#post5539672
shows were I was wanting to place entry before 30min bar closes like you were saying.

cheers scalpz
ok. got it.
  • #62
  • Apr 3, 2012 4:38pm Apr 3, 2012 4:38pm
Quoting panguFX
"the long red candle is your m30 signal...."

wen i looked at the chart, that candle met all the entry criteria, so i set a pending, then it continued south, then rule 6 happenned. so because the candle hadn't closed, things changed in real time, so i deleted the order in real time.

"what r u looking for next..."

i'm looking for a new M30 bar to break below that trend ext, and then if all my 1-8 steps are met, set another pending order. this move that can be seen easily from h4 has not given its fruit yet.

so bars are containers that...

that is why i made the point about candle closing first before you set your pending order..

in this particular example, as the big red m30 candle was developing , you had already placed your pending buy at the high of it + 2 pips. imagine then if it had triggered your buy i.e. price just moved up slightly and trade got filled, and then fell as it did. instant 30 pips loss.

so is it not better to wait for the m30 candle to close first ? before setting the pending order....

also, unless candle closes, where would you know to put your stop ? or is sl always a fixed 30 pips regardless of how big the m30 candle is ?


i dont understand your last paragraph.
  • #63
  • Apr 3, 2012 4:49pm Apr 3, 2012 4:49pm
Quoting whatfx
that is why i made the point about candle closing first before you set your pending order..

in this particular example, as the big red m30 candle was developing , you had already placed your pending buy at the high of it + 2 pips. imagine then if it had triggered your buy i.e. price just moved up slightly and trade got filled, and then fell as it did. instant 30 pips loss.

so is it not better to wait for the m30 candle to close first ? before setting the pending order....

also, unless candle closes, where would you know to put your...
if i remember correctly, when i pulled up the chart, price wouldv needed to move around 8 or 10 pips up to trigger it.

"so is it not better to wait for the m30 candle to close first ? before setting the pending order...."

i don't think so. maybe wait for M15 to close? i'm gonna continue to NOT wait.

well SL is typically 30, but not always, there are some 25, 23 pippers SL, etc.

"i dont understand your last paragraph...."

:nerd:
  • #64
  • Apr 3, 2012 5:05pm Apr 3, 2012 5:05pm
Quoting panguFX

I've seen 2 or 3 trades that i missed already this week because i was on an airplane.

If you're talking about E/U I don't know when those trades were.

There have been 3 extreme 30 min bars at the end of 81 + pip moves this week.

4/2 1300 GMT - 35 Pip range- no trade because SL would have been excessive.

4/3 0930 GMT - 26 Pip range- ditto above.

4/3 1830 GMT - 26 Pip range - ditto above
  • #65
  • Apr 3, 2012 5:08pm Apr 3, 2012 5:08pm
Quoting panguFX
if i remember correctly, when i pulled up the chart, price wouldv needed to move around 8 or 10 pips up to trigger it.

"so is it not better to wait for the m30 candle to close first ? before setting the pending order...."

i don't think so. maybe wait for M15 to close? i'm gonna continue to NOT wait.

well SL is typically 30, but not always, there are some 25, 23 pippers SL, etc.

"i dont understand your last paragraph...."

:nerd:

so, do you not need to wait for m30 candle to close, so that you may set the correct sl, based on high/low of that candle ? if not how do you decide if it is 25 pips sl, 30 pips , 20 pips etc..?
  • #66
  • Apr 3, 2012 5:32pm Apr 3, 2012 5:32pm
Quoting billbss
If you're talking about E/U I don't know when those trades were.

There have been 3 extreme 30 min bars at the end of 81 + pip moves this week.

4/2 1300 GMT - 35 Pip range- no trade because SL would have been excessive.

4/3 0930 GMT - 26 Pip range- ditto above.

4/3 1830 GMT - 26 Pip range - ditto above

i marked two potentials in my h4 pic. I think you are correct about the 1st move i marked.- "no trade because SL would have been excessive."

The second move looks like it wouldv worked, and you need to move down to smaller timeframes to see where it wouldv triggered.

the bars repaint while they are open. so when studying history its more accurate to drill down to smaller timeframes.... its a real pain in the a$$
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  • #67
  • Apr 3, 2012 5:40pm Apr 3, 2012 5:40pm
Quoting whatfx
so, do you not need to wait for m30 candle to close, so that you may set the correct sl, based on high/low of that candle ? if not how do you decide if it is 25 pips sl, 30 pips , 20 pips etc..?
well lets say we are 15 mins into a 30 min candle. candle opened, moved down or up 10 pips, and retraced 5 to the center of the candle. now we have a high/low of an unfinished candle. a pending order can theoretically make the market prove that its moving in our direction.

another example, we are 10 mins into our candle, candle opened moved down 18 pips, and moved back up to its high, so we are looking at the chart at the current high, we just enter right away, market order. 18 +10 pips = 28 pip SL
  • #68
  • Apr 3, 2012 5:54pm Apr 3, 2012 5:54pm
30 minute chart.
This is all of this week. There weren't any trades according to your rules.
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  • #69
  • Apr 3, 2012 6:14pm Apr 3, 2012 6:14pm
Quoting billbss
30 minute chart.
This is all of this week. There weren't any trades according to your rules.
i marked the open and close of the m30 with horizontal gold lines, then drilling down to m15 or m5, we can see,i'm pretty sure this wouldv triggered a successful trade.

the m30 candle opened, it went up 19 pips, at this point i wouldve set a pending order.
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  • #70
  • Edited 6:33pm Apr 3, 2012 6:16pm | Edited 6:33pm
i think the problem is that its not easy to see in history without going to m5, where my order wouldv triggered, before or after the close of the m30 bar.

@ billbss - you may be right about the above moves, however you cannot simply look back at history and take the range of the m30 trend extreme bar to see the reality of the trade, especially if we are not waiting for the bar to close to enter.
  • #71
  • Apr 3, 2012 6:36pm Apr 3, 2012 6:36pm
Quoting panguFX
i think the problem is that its not easy to see in history without going to m5, where my order wouldv triggered, before or after the close of the m30 bar.

You've lost me.
Here are the rules you posted in post #1.
I don't see anything about a 15 or 5 min bar.
What you are saying now is that you are not trading the 30 min bar, you are trading 5 min bars.

This system is only for use with Eur/Usd.
1) Using a 4 hour chart, find a recent move that exceeds 81 pips.
2) Move down to a 30 minute chart, and draw a standard fibonacci retracement from high to low on a downmove or from low to high on a upmovement.
3) Place a pending buystop/sellstop order 2 pips above/below the extreme of the 30 min. bar that ended the upmove or downmove.
4) Set take profit for 10-15 pips or at the 38.2 Fibo level, whichever is smaller
5) Set stop loss 10-15 pips above/below the trend extreme of the 30 min bar. Acceptable stop loss is 30 pips or less.
6) If price exceeds the trend extreme bar before triggering your pending order, you must cancel your pending order and wait to start all over again.
7) If price triggers your order, and then goes against you past the trend extreme, but doesn't hit your SL, move your TP to +1 pips or breakeven.
8) Rinse and Repeat
  • #72
  • Apr 3, 2012 6:37pm Apr 3, 2012 6:37pm
Quoting billbss
You've lost me.
Here are the rules you posted in post #1.
I don't see anything about a 15 or 5 min bar.
What you are saying now is that you are not trading the 30 min bar, you are trading 5 min bars.

This system is only for use with Eur/Usd.
1) Using a 4 hour chart, find a recent move that exceeds 81 pips.
2) Move down to a 30 minute chart, and draw a standard fibonacci retracement from high to low on a downmove or from low to high on a upmovement.
[b]3) Place a pending buystop/sellstop order 2 pips above/below the extreme of the 30 min....
no, i don't trade m15 or m5 bars. what i'm saying is that in order to gain an accurate representation of how motherfibber worked or didn't work in the past, we need to drill down to the smaller timeframes to see what happenned in finer resolution.

i don't think you can simply look back at history and take the range of the m30 trend extreme bar to see the reality of the trade, especially if we are not waiting for the bar to close to enter.
  • #73
  • Edited 7:10pm Apr 3, 2012 6:59pm | Edited 7:10pm
Quoting billbss
You've lost me.
Here are the rules you posted in post #1.
I don't see anything about a 15 or 5 min bar.
What you are saying now is that you are not trading the 30 min bar, you are trading 5 min bars.

This system is only for use with Eur/Usd.
1) Using a 4 hour chart, find a recent move that exceeds 81 pips.
2) Move down to a 30 minute chart, and draw a standard fibonacci retracement from high to low on a downmove or from low to high on a upmovement.
[b]3) Place a pending buystop/sellstop order 2 pips above/below the extreme of the 30 min....

in post #3 of this thread, i actually took that trade.
  • #74
  • Apr 3, 2012 7:25pm Apr 3, 2012 7:25pm
right now all the criterion are met, so we set a pending order...

15 TP
23ish SL
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  • #75
  • Apr 3, 2012 7:26pm Apr 3, 2012 7:26pm
Hi P,
Interesting idea. I am developing a similar method.

Here is my perspective on a chart this week so far.
The chart below is the AUDUSD 30 minute on InterbankFX MT4.
Using the AUD just to show it can work on other pairs.

I am just going to talk entries (not money/trade management)

Before I start here are 3 of my own modifications:
1. Wait for the exhaustion candle to close (30min).
2. Trigger must happen on the next candle (otherwise void trade)
3. Stoploss is 1pip + spread above/ below entry candle. (if it breaks the high or low then your entry candle has been voided and the trade is no longer valid so minimize your loss)
Move on and get ready for the next trade.

Okay, to the Chart:

A -This point was on Friday just before close
B -Sunday gaped open up to 97 pips at B. definitely meets the 80pips. Nice spinning top.
The next candle would have triggered the trade.
Could have pulled some nice bank if managed correctly!
C - Near open of US price has dropped 81pips from B to C.
Candle at C is another reversal candle and is triggered on the next candle.
Once again some good pips
D - Nice candle but only 67pips from C to D
E - C to E is 78pips. I say worth a try and it was triggered on the next candle.
F - Freak of nature, no trade, price plummits
G - Candle G cuts thru 80 pips and ends with 93 pips.
G candle looks like crap just by sight. No trade.
H - H is a nice candle but is not triggered on next candle.
I - To long for a good setup
J - Would be acceptable with a different MM.
K - A little long but was never triggered

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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There is another side to this and that is the possible continuation entries with the different moves. (1-6)

Anyways, as I said, just another perspective!

Thanks for your sharing, always like to see new approaches.

KRMO
Attitude can reflect outcome in life and trading!
  • #76
  • Apr 3, 2012 7:29pm Apr 3, 2012 7:29pm
modified SL to 27ish pips...
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  • #77
  • Edited 7:53pm Apr 3, 2012 7:41pm | Edited 7:53pm
the buy order triggered.
adjusted SL to 29ish (27 +2 pips).
now heres the thing that $ux, i wanna go to $leep,
but i need to watch it in order to follow rule 7.
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  • #78
  • Apr 3, 2012 7:59pm Apr 3, 2012 7:59pm
look what we see when we plot pivots, our SL landed just below a pivot. :nerd:
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  • #79
  • Apr 4, 2012 12:03am Apr 4, 2012 12:03am
Quoting panguFX
look what we see ....... :nerd:
When looking at your charts the 4Hr bars do not seem to match mine and it appears that our broker 4hr bars probably differ by 2 hrs. (My bars start at 0000 GMT- See attached.)
This raises some interesting issues that we could use to our advantage.
For instance when the swing on the 4Hr seems to stall before reaching the 81 pip threshhold, I have been going to the 1Hr to look for a decent swing and then entering on the 30M.
Got a good entry with such cheating on Apr2. Unfortuntely, my exit was too early
To me the key feature of this strategy is the pending order which hopefully only results in entries in the right direction.
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  • #80
  • Apr 4, 2012 1:59am Apr 4, 2012 1:59am
Quoting panguFX
right now all the criterion are met, so we set a pending order...

15 TP
23ish SL


why is the criteria met here ? that move from long red candle to where you entered is over 140 pips move, way over the 81 pips suggested move. is that then not a risky trade to take ?

also, what made you enter at that particular point instead of say the first green candle after the long red candle ? the criteria would have been met.
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