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  • #21
  • Mar 31, 2012 6:40am Mar 31, 2012 6:40am
Quoting whatfx
sl of 10-15 pips. sl of 30 pips ,so which one do you use ? and when...

what happens on days where the daily range of 81 pips is exceeded and market goes on to a range of say 100 pips or 200 pips ? it can happen a lot with eurusd, especially on good days..
i set my sl 10-15 pips below/above the trend extreme bar which usually winds up being 20-30 pips total sl.

usually the range is greater than 100 on eur, but thats ok, we only need a move that is at least 81.
  • #22
  • Mar 31, 2012 6:50am Mar 31, 2012 6:50am
Quoting whatfx
what do you define as a down or up move of 81 pips. what sort of candles do you look for. is it a move in one go without much retrace, how much retrace is allowed. for example on a 4 hr chart , say there is a downmove of 81 pips, however in between that downmove there could be an upmove of 81 pips. so how would you decide ....is the downmove still a valid one ?

when the move of 81 pips is complete, do you wait for that 4 hr candle to close first, before looking at the 30 min candle ? or is it immediately the 81 pips is reached on the 4 hr that...
we need a most recent move of 81 pips or more on the h4 chart. u dont wait for any candle to close. if u hav a 81 pip move then a retrace like in ur example, then you already hav missed the trade. no double dipping. wait for another move of at least 81 and then trade it wen it retraces with a pending order.

u can post pics of ur trade pics if u want to. your stop loss wasnt big enough on those.
  • #23
  • Mar 31, 2012 9:51am Mar 31, 2012 9:51am
rules #6 and 7 are very important, they will prevent many losing trades. please reread from my 1st posting.
  • #24
  • Apr 1, 2012 1:19pm Apr 1, 2012 1:19pm
Hi,
I think we should clarify a pip. A 4 or 5 digit broker is different. If you are using a 5 digit, an 80 pip is 800 (1.00800).
Ron
  • #25
  • Apr 1, 2012 1:39pm Apr 1, 2012 1:39pm
Quoting packgreen49
Hi,
I think we should clarify a pip. A 4 or 5 digit broker is different. If you are using a 5 digit, an 80 pip is 800 (1.00800).
Ron
hi ron,

the way i think about it is that on a 5-digit broker, the last digit is a 1/10 of a pip.
  • #26
  • Apr 1, 2012 4:22pm Apr 1, 2012 4:22pm
Hi PanguFX, this seems a good system but it seems to me that the basis is a little 'hind sight'. I have looked at your first pictures and it seems that the fib was set before the 4H completed. Don't think that this is a criticism, I am just trying to get it straight in my head.
Putting on the fib at the bottom/top of a move is fine when we know when we have a top or bottom. Your first 4H chart shows a bull candle after the bears, so when we get to the 30m price has already gone back making our winning trade...or have I got it wrong?

I think what I am saying is that 4H is not the route to take but a smaller TF. I am also aware that smaller TFs would show more reversals.

I have forgotten how difficult it is to post pics here so I will post now and edit later with the chart to show the problem that I see.
  • #27
  • Apr 1, 2012 5:48pm Apr 1, 2012 5:48pm
Quoting Phreddy
Hi PanguFX, this seems a good system but it seems to me that the basis is a little 'hind sight'. I have looked at your first pictures and it seems that the fib was set before the 4H completed. Don't think that this is a criticism, I am just trying to get it straight in my head.
Putting on the fib at the bottom/top of a move is fine when we know when we have a top or bottom. Your first 4H chart shows a bull candle after the bears, so when we get to the 30m price has already gone back making our winning trade...or have I got it wrong?

I think what...

hi there, I appreciate your input. I never saw this method as black an white. There is no need to wait for the H4 candle to close, as soon as we see an >81 pip move on the H4 chart, then immediately switch to M30. If you must you guys can wait for the trend extreme M30 Candle to close before setting your pending orders. I've never waited for this M30 candle close, because rule 6 generally takes care of that issue. in other words after switching to M30, and the trend extreme bar is not closed, I still set my pending order 2 pips above/below, and if price exceeds the trendextreme, this forces us to delete our order and reset it at the new m30 trend extreme bar. We can wait for the candle close, however i feel this is lagging and may make us miss some profit. rule 6 people. rule 6.
I'm currently out of town and typing this up on iphone. When i return midweek, I will post this weeks trades as I take them. We all are looking at the same EUR/USD chart, I beleive the motherfibber is clear enough for us to all see the same trades, same entries, same take profits, same win/loss. I've tested this extensively, and It works great, however possibly the way i'm trying to teach it can be improved.
Many Pips to you all.....
  • #28
  • Apr 1, 2012 6:44pm Apr 1, 2012 6:44pm
Hi PanguFX, much clearer, most helpful. Looking forward to your return.
  • #29
  • Apr 1, 2012 8:11pm Apr 1, 2012 8:11pm
Quoting panguFX

hi there,....
I beleive the motherfibber is clear enough for us to all see ..... tested this extensively, and It works great,
.....
Hello panguFX,
Definitely onto a winner here. Thanks for sharing.
Have been following closely since open today.
Missed good move, due to hesitation in pulling the trigger as the up swing did not meet the 81 pip rule.
Wonder if the divergent candle offered a clue to the retrace.
(See attached)
dp
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: pangu.gif Size: 40 KB
  • #30
  • Apr 1, 2012 8:49pm Apr 1, 2012 8:49pm
Interesting thread. When I do a quick manual scan with EURUSD for the last 2 days of last week I can see two trades that would have needed stop losses of at least 35 and 40, as the 30min candles were around 23 and 27pip length (once closed). These down moves both started at about 8.00GMT on 28th March and 29th March.

PanguFX - Would you still have taken those trades, or simply rejected them due to the risk/reward? If you had jumped in before the 30min candles closed (as per your guidelines) with tighter stops on both, from what I can see you would have been stopped on both.

If waiting for the 30min close and using bigger stops, both trades would have worked for 10 pips, but one was a very close call and wouldn't have worked if we had jumped in at 79 pips - so that extra pip was critical! Will follow this with interest to see how it pans out.
  • #31
  • Edited 1:23am Apr 2, 2012 12:20am | Edited 1:23am
Quoting ForexKiwi
Interesting thread. When I do a quick manual scan with EURUSD for the last 2 days of last week I can see two trades that would have needed stop losses of at least 35 and 40, as the 30min candles were around 23 and 27pip length (once closed). These down moves both started at about 8.00GMT on 28th March and 29th March.

PanguFX - Would you still have taken those trades, or simply rejected them due to the risk/reward? If you had jumped in before the 30min candles closed (as per your guidelines) with tighter stops on both, from what I can see you...
hi there, yes 30 pips is max stop loss, we dont take those, as u said, due to risk to reward ratio.
nice positive postings
  • #32
  • Apr 2, 2012 6:17am Apr 2, 2012 6:17am
Quoting panguFX
we need a most recent move of 81 pips or more on the h4 chart. u dont wait for any candle to close. if u hav a 81 pip move then a retrace like in ur example, then you already hav missed the trade. no double dipping. wait for another move of at least 81 and then trade it wen it retraces with a pending order.

u can post pics of ur trade pics if u want to. your stop loss wasnt big enough on those.

hi pangu

thanks for your response.

the move of 81 pips, is it from the open of a 4 hr candle to the close of a 4 hr candle, or do we take into account the high / low range as the move...

also, if your total sl is 30 pips as you state, is that not bad r:r, as your tp as you state is only 10-15 pips.
  • #33
  • Apr 2, 2012 6:33am Apr 2, 2012 6:33am
see attached chart pic.

as marked by the red lines, these moves were 81 pips, but from the candle lows to candle highs. so the candle low / high range be considered a valid move for 81 pips...?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu 4.gif Size: 72 KB
  • #34
  • Apr 2, 2012 8:25am Apr 2, 2012 8:25am
present m30 eu signals a setup to buy when current 30m candle closes. buy at the high of that candle + 2 pips...
  • #35
  • Apr 2, 2012 3:49pm Apr 2, 2012 3:49pm
Quoting whatfx
present m30 eu signals a setup to buy when current 30m candle closes. buy at the high of that candle + 2 pips...
whatfx; Check what would be your SL ?

That zigzag would be handy with an alarm as it passes through the 81 pips.

Hey panguFX, Nice system, good work spotting the regular retraces. Do you trade through any particular timeframe ?
ie what if the 81 pips is covered through the late NY session through to the early Asia session. Do you still go for it ?

cheers scalpz
Target 2 : Stoploss in the green
  • #36
  • Apr 2, 2012 8:17pm Apr 2, 2012 8:17pm
Quoting scalpz
whatfx; Check what would be your SL ?

That zigzag would be handy with an alarm as it passes through the 81 pips.

Hey panguFX, Nice system, good work spotting the regular retraces. Do you trade through any particular timeframe ?
ie what if the 81 pips is covered through the late NY session through to the early Asia session. Do you still go for it ?

cheers scalpz

that is precisely what i mentioned about in my post #32 above.

the stop loss was way too large. around 45 pips. so, to make just 15 pips you are risking 45 pips. very bad r:r. i will not even look at trade like this. so never took that particular trade..
  • #37
  • Apr 3, 2012 2:55am Apr 3, 2012 2:55am
Quoting EaglePip
Hello panguFX,
Definitely onto a winner here. Thanks for sharing.
Have been following closely since open today.
Missed good move, due to hesitation in pulling the trigger as the up swing did not meet the 81 pip rule.
Wonder if the divergent candle offered a clue to the retrace.
(See attached)
dp
ahhhh divergence
  • #38
  • Apr 3, 2012 3:01am Apr 3, 2012 3:01am
Quoting whatfx
hi pangu

thanks for your response.

the move of 81 pips, is it from the open of a 4 hr candle to the close of a 4 hr candle, or do we take into account the high / low range as the move...

also, if your total sl is 30 pips as you state, is that not bad r:r, as your tp as you state is only 10-15 pips.
the move of 81 pips isnt related to a close of a 4 hour candle.
simply, i look for the most recent move, i like H4 to spot it. then I move to M30, does it look like it bouncing and retracing, or is it moving sideway?, then set pending order.

yes it is 20 to 30 pips SL, to 10 to 15 TP. I'm running at about 90% winrate, however even 80% winrate is profitable.
  • #39
  • Apr 3, 2012 3:04am Apr 3, 2012 3:04am
Quoting whatfx
see attached chart pic.

as marked by the red lines, these moves were 81 pips, but from the candle lows to candle highs. so the candle low / high range be considered a valid move for 81 pips...?
i dont understand your question, i think the answer is yes.
  • #40
  • Apr 3, 2012 3:06am Apr 3, 2012 3:06am
Quoting scalpz
whatfx; Check what would be your SL ?

That zigzag would be handy with an alarm as it passes through the 81 pips.

Hey panguFX, Nice system, good work spotting the regular retraces. Do you trade through any particular timeframe ?
ie what if the 81 pips is covered through the late NY session through to the early Asia session. Do you still go for it ?

cheers scalpz
H4 and M30

yes, i even go for it late friday afternoon session
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