GBP/USD and EUR/USD

An older view of the pair that I keep in mind, with the correction that it's about end of 2010 and not 2008. I will update as soon as I find something interesting also. Good luck and trade safe!

good morning

I will post some complex and boring trade plans for next week.

first will be USD CHF as it was the first one that popped on my screen and from this one we will make an analogy with the rest of the pairs.

So,first chart is the weekly chart where I drew some fibo lines to see the entry for long.
Price bounced from the 23% line and now heading up but not for long as price is about to drop a lot on this pair acc to the charts.flat kumo and flat KS line attracts the price and price will touch first the 50% fibo and next stop 61.8%

we can see that the fibo's are correlated with the CS spikes(I use them for S and R as this is what they indicate).
More than that acc to the strength index across the pairs we see that USD and CHF are on the opposite sides of the scale (usd -17 and CHF + 29)

And even more USD CHF is about to form a bear cross on W.




now we zoom in to H1 chart where we have again fibos knowing that price was rejected on 23% on W and that was the long entry we now look for possible targets to exit the trade(at least I do )

targets indicated by the chart only and supported by fibo as well is the flat blue line and top flat kumo.I put the fibo a bit lower in order for you to see the flat line but in reality they are on top of each other.

So TP1 is 50% fibo and TP 2 is 61.8% but,according to my calculations that have nothing to do with fibo price should reach 0.9085-88 as last TP.

I will close 1/3 @ TP1,1/3 @ TP2 and move SL to BE and rest @ TP3.




now I shift to H4 for you to see the bigger picture.
On H4 I drew another fibo to see entry point for sell.

Entry point for sell and exit for the buy is the 61.8% fibo and it is same as bottom kumo on this one .

as soon as we hit that one price should drop like a rock.I will look for clear signs and patterns when price will be up there but frankly,eventhough a bull cross will form now on H4 (by the time reaches the top) I reckon a reverse bear cross will form in a short time and this would mean a perfect sell signal which on H4 will bring some hundreds of pips...but we already knew this from W chart

now next set of charts for EU

I will start with a long term view on W chart where we have same pattern for countertrend with a flat KS line and flat kumo @50% fibo and target that one as TP 1,TP 2 @ 61.8% and TP 3 will be up there @ 1050 pips above the top kumo @ 1.46-1.47.


I will always missplace fibo on the charts in order for you to see the flat blue line (KS) but levels are the same.

So as my long term view is buy I will look for longs and entries for this.

I will zoom in now on H1 to see wether it is worth it to buy now or after a pullback.

As my chart shows me on H1 I decide to buy at 1.3275-3290 as this one will be last stop on the way down from this move.

same pattern flat kumo flat line + there are clustered spikes of CS in the same region and bottom of kumo is @ 3280-85.

Why I target TP 3 instead of fibo 61.8% is because my calculation gives me a deeper move down and you will see why.


More than H1 I see a confirmation of pullback on M30 as well and right on the same levels 50% and 61.8% which are same as flat line and kumo,bottom kumo circled is S and entry level for buy .

So already 2 charts to show me where price will tank now I just wait to load longs @ that level.

On H4 chart we also see top kumo as support @ same level @ 1.3275-90.

ok now dear old GU.
again the long term view for this one is long.TP up there @ 1.6690 but first we will stall @ 1.6160 and pullback.
TP 1 was reached already @ 50% TP 2 is fibo 61.8% @ 1.6160 then TP3 is 1.6690 but it will pass some time till we see it.If you want you can calculate the tiime span as you see how many candles are in one square I estimate a the price will be up there up to 4-5 months from now on .

now we zoom in to H1 where we see some interesting rejections on the pullback and where I look to enter long.

I have in view 1.5915-1.5955 area and I will show you why.
This retrace has no clear flat kumo with flat line at the same level....this messes up a bit the calculation and cannot trust it that much if price will stop @ flat line or flat kumo...I have so many possible entries I really cannot make up my mind.

First is the flat line then comes the 50% fibo and flat bottomed kumo then 61.8% where by the time price will reach it a SMA of 200 will be in the same area + a big fat juicy gartley points out for a sell.

Frankly I don't use gartley as it sucks and never knew how to use it properly.In this case it just confirms the downmove.



Still not knowing what to do with my entry I look on M30 searching for a clue.
At least on M30 we already have a bear cross formed and a gartley as well but nothing more.flat lines are scarce and flat kumo has a strange shape.

the only TP down is the SMA 200 @ 1.5930 area.


Still not having a decent entry point I decide to look on H4

there you go as on H4 I see it clearer that price will first stall @ 1.5947 level as TS and then will bottom at the KS flat line @ 5939 which in this case is the 50% fibo and GU lately loves this line....don't ask me why.

If price goes under this level I am afraid nothing will stop it till 5915-20 as 61.8% fibo and top kumo on H4.




So, in this view I am long on USD CHF since friday targeting the levels mentioned(0.9085).Correlated and chartwise I am short on EU with TP 3280.

from those levels I will reverse moves.I will short on USDCHF and long on EU.

and in correlation to those 2 pairs and offcourse the charts,same thing on GU.the only diff is that here I have no sell open as It would double the risk on a pair opened against USD.

On GU I will only load longs as soon as we reach one of the mentioned levels 1.5915-1.5955

I could have the same analisis and charts done on USDX if you are interested to give you the exact levels so it will give you exact TP's or entries.

Off course all this analisis is made on the technical point of view and no fundies is taken in consideration here.
Logics tells us that all economies are f*** and it takes turns in depression.
Last half year it was EU and GU turn to be devaluated now it comes USD time to be devaluated.....and so the world spinns and spinns.

Have a great weekend and I hope the charts printed helps you for next week.

p.s.all fibos are slightly moved so you can see the flat KS

and the USDX view that will make more light in the previous charts

on monthly we see a rejection from 50% fibo all under a bear cross.I'm not gonna spend much time here as it is long term but I just point out bear view.



zoom in on W now and we see same ci=ountertrend pattern with flat KS and flat bottomed kumo to attract price and TP 1 already reached @ 38.2% fibo next target will be the 50% then 61.8% and my precious TP3 which is where I put it.cannot tell exactly how I calculated that or if it will go that low but after TP2 the rest of my moves will be trailed.



so if in M and W we retain a bearish view of the dollar on daily we will even see a perfect sell signal as per classic ichi cross under kumo,kumo bearish and all the rest .



but,in short term there is a different story and this is the one that correlates the sell in all pairs accross USD.

we have a buy and first TP @ 50% fibo touched already next one is 61.8% @ 79.10 then Tp3 @ 79.2X area which is same as H4 bottom cloud.

From that area a sell would be perfect and correlated to the crosses a buy on EU and GU and sell on USD CHF

if you calculate from this point where USDX is now there are some 30-50 pips on this move.I don't know it it works this way in 1 pip of index = 1 pip of curency pair but in this case it seems to work more or less this way

as in this case EU needs to drop 40-50 pips and GU same amount till a good buy level.

I will only keep in mind the perfect sell of USDX on daily that will shoot up the rest of the pairs.




techs and this kind of analisis should stand for now.we will have plenty of news and maybe in long term USA will invade Iran and that will do something good for the US economy.till then,I preffer to stick to the charts and keep a good MM on those entries

afterall,we cannot trade rumours or fundies as we all know that they are bs.
all we know for sure are some tech levels and as long as we only jump in trades at those most probable levels and keep a tight SL then we balance the RR to our side.

trading involves a lot of risk.I just minimise it as much as I can

hey bro,

dont have a lot of time today... here are the request analysises in short :

do you serioulsy trade with these charts?

i cant even spot price :-P

well...I do have other charts with lines only but I cannot see anything there
all I see is that GU broke a downtrenline and acc to the trendline breakout we need to retest that line before heading up again.
that TL now has same price as the rest of the charts (1.5930-40)

same for EU @ 1.3270-80
but this might sound a bit as a way to justify entries after price moved already so I'll stick to the other charts.

My trade plan:

Buy stops are above the market price and sell stops are bellow..I think you mixed them..

Not that buy stop,it means sl to buy.

Euro H1 Chart...

Wait... TL Resistance broke or Not

Thinking bearish, I will look for shorting from this area.

waiting target hit

Need give Time Frime, please... B'cause PPL need quick to know. Thank's

Sorry, I usually mention it. Also it's in the picture name, hold the mouse over the picture for a while and it will say. It is daily timeframe.

Need to be executed soon, Bro

Cable and Euro goes according with Friday PLAN, Last Week...

one target hit 6050,

only 3 long position now ...

After made AB - CD Pattern (at Friday Last Week)

Correct in Calculation, found Bearish Butterfly...
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