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B.S. Trading with Kenneth Lee

  • #3,341
  • Mar 31, 2012 9:25am Mar 31, 2012 9:25am
Good to know.

1.3000 is next, yes.
Thoughts are things
  • #3,342
  • Apr 1, 2012 12:06am Apr 1, 2012 12:06am
Quoting Quezoy
I would like to ask if I've made some mistake here, or was it just one of the times things didnt go "as they should".
My observations:

1. The supply level didn't work because that was X'mas weekend.. right from friday, 23/12. That meant volume was low and hence the "consolidation" was not because bears and bulls fought. They were resting. The level was a mirage.

2. The weekly trend (which was immediate next higher TF, was going up either for retracement or change of trend -- we will know soon.

You did not have the benefit of hindsight but your posting the chart is very good for mutual learning in so far as filtering out trades.

Cheers
Not trend, but imbalance is my friend
  • #3,343
  • Apr 1, 2012 12:20am Apr 1, 2012 12:20am
Quoting pbanerjee
My observations:

1. The supply level didn't work because that was X'mas weekend.. right from friday, 23/12. That meant volume was low and hence the "consolidation" was not because bears and bulls fought. They were resting. The level was a mirage.

2. The weekly trend (which was immediate next higher TF, was going up either for retracement or change of trend -- we will know soon.

You did not have the benefit of hindsight but your posting the chart is very good for mutual learning in so far as filtering out trades.

Cheers

Good point about Christmas weekend.. I will be watching that. It very well could be that S/D can be askew..

Rufus
Illegitimi non carborundum - Noli pati a scelestis opprimi.
  • #3,344
  • Apr 1, 2012 12:23am Apr 1, 2012 12:23am
Just added the volume filter in my trade plan now.
Not trend, but imbalance is my friend
  • #3,345
  • Apr 1, 2012 12:50am Apr 1, 2012 12:50am
Quoting pbanerjee
Just added the volume filter in my trade plan now.

Keep in mind that volume can be misleading. Usually the only volume we have access to is what is going through our brokers. We have no idea what big banks or large brokers may be doing. At least till they move the price but... that is S/D trading

Maybe the thing to watch would be times of the year where trading is less. Like you pointed out with Christmas.
Illegitimi non carborundum - Noli pati a scelestis opprimi.
  • #3,346
  • Apr 1, 2012 1:00am Apr 1, 2012 1:00am
Kenneth/Rufus,

Looking at same EUR/AUD chart again, assuming that the below supply level was a "normal" one, there is a higher supply level too. That higher one is a weekly supply level too.

So, assuming both are valid supply levels, would you take the short at the lower level on the daily chart?
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Not trend, but imbalance is my friend
  • #3,347
  • Apr 1, 2012 1:06am Apr 1, 2012 1:06am
Quoting Rufus
Keep in mind that volume can be misleading.
I see your point. However, I was only thinking about filtering out trades on low volumes instead of taking trades. But yes, if the platform's volume figure itself is not a good representative of real figures, then it defeats the purpose. I see your point.
Not trend, but imbalance is my friend
  • #3,348
  • Apr 1, 2012 1:16am Apr 1, 2012 1:16am
Quoting pbanerjee
Kenneth/Rufus,

Looking at same EUR/AUD chart again, assuming that the below supply level was a "normal" one, there is a higher supply level too. That higher one is a weekly supply level too.

So, assuming both are valid supply levels, would you take the short at the lower level on the daily chart?

When I look at a daily chart zone. I will usually take it down to a 4h to see about narrowing my entry area. The EA can still reverse here. Friday was the last trading day of the week, and of the month, and of the quarter, it can be a bit funky.
Illegitimi non carborundum - Noli pati a scelestis opprimi.
  • #3,349
  • Apr 1, 2012 1:25am Apr 1, 2012 1:25am
hi kenneth, this is what I was saying before. do you mean usa open, uk or asian? or any open
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  • #3,350
  • Apr 1, 2012 7:16am Apr 1, 2012 7:16am
Quoting chiba_san
hi kenneth, this is what I was saying before. do you mean usa open, uk or asian? or any open
That was just a direct copy of Sam's odds enhancers ,, But if we have any screen time. We should already know that when a session opens orders start to flow. So then we can see levels come into play that seemed to not have been obeyed.

Between sessions you see price just kind of meander across our charts at times , Sometimes even stopping us out ujst barely, but as we get close to a major session opening time or right after, we can see price make a aggressive move. and we can see the level be obeyed. This can be disturbing as it can make us question our choices . This is why we have to try and understand order flow based off different times of the day.

One of Sam's recent videos , Think it is labeled the difference between the spot market and futures. he goes into this a little bit . by saying. " most days he can find a trade right as the market is opening on his 5 min chart"

This is because a reversal level or turn always shows on a faster chart first. But I would be careful and look for a level on a longer term chart to confirm that there is a turning level near.

I try to think of it in a business sense . Maybe not all offices trade 24 hr a day . maybe some can't find enough opposite side to get their orders filled. We have to try and think of the other guys the BIG guys as they are the moving force. We tend to get tunnel vision and just think of our own little world. We are just a speck in the wind.

Ken
Good Trading To All ; Ken Lee
  • #3,351
  • Apr 1, 2012 7:22am Apr 1, 2012 7:22am
Quoting pbanerjee
Kenneth/Rufus,

Looking at same EUR/AUD chart again, assuming that the below supply level was a "normal" one, there is a higher supply level too. That higher one is a weekly supply level too.

So, assuming both are valid supply levels, would you take the short at the lower level on the daily chart?

I personally don't trade strictly off the daily charts other than looking for the levels. So I am not the best person to answer , But a level behind another level normally has greater value as some of the demand is used up on the lower level to get there.

This is why I take some trades that may not look good . If price has attempted to turn at lower levels , then even a weak looking one can give enough of a bounce to make some profit .
Good Trading To All ; Ken Lee
  • #3,352
  • Apr 1, 2012 7:34am Apr 1, 2012 7:34am
About volume indicators again I have never used that indicator so haven't studied it. First i would say if a person is going to use any indicator learn as much as you can about the mechanics of it first what it looks for and why it is printing what it does. So many apply things they truly don't understand so isn't really any help just more things to consider before planning a trade and more to raise doubt.

I think volume indicators may just be showing volume of flow which would have to be after the fact . We are looking to enter right as that volume is picking up. Which would make that a bit to late for us. Maybe if you see that volume or trading is greater you would think your levels would work better because you see more orders . But as far as seeing which orders I can't see the value .

But again I may be completely wrong with this. But my quest towards trading has been to find less not more. The filter I use is myself. We know where to look for our entries and the stops and targets are really clear. Don't doubt your resolve just practice those few small things till you get expert at it.

Plus your trading plan has to fit your style. I am happy trying for a half dozen trades a week to make around 100 pips. some weeks I get 200 or 300. So a 20 pip trade is fine by me . others may look for daily trades that could make them a lot more even weeks worth of gains . but may find only one trade every couple of weeks.

But we all have to be comfortable with what we do. Plus our trading times vary. i used to try and get up for London open . but forcing myself to do this was not a good thing as i would be tired and make dumb mistakes . So now I trade when i feel like it and still find enough to satisfy my needs .

Sorry turned into a small novel.. LOL KeN
Good Trading To All ; Ken Lee
  • #3,353
  • Apr 1, 2012 7:56am Apr 1, 2012 7:56am
chart

Hmmm Barley after .. Sounds like some type of beer.. Barely or right after more likely
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Good Trading To All ; Ken Lee
  • #3,354
  • Apr 1, 2012 8:58am Apr 1, 2012 8:58am
Quoting Kenneth Lee
Maybe if you see that volume or trading is greater you would think your levels would work better because you see more orders.
Yes, the idea was that -- to ignore the levels that had very low volume of trading. Christmas weekend was just a well known cause of poor trading volume in the recent example few posts before. But we can't consider all such causes. That's fundamental analysis. We look at charts.

I agree, use of indicators for entering the market takes away our edge to get in earlier than the masses -- no second thought about that one.

btw, doing some study on linking the trading volume with quality of S/D level. First hand info is that Oanda's volume data seems quite okay..perhaps because they are high volume brokers. Their demo matches the live data. I am interested only in volume fluctuations. But still, that would at best be a sample data albeit a higher quality sample compared to smaller brokers.

Will look further into this to get some more evidence of "relative" volume versus S/D level quality.
Not trend, but imbalance is my friend
  • #3,355
  • Apr 1, 2012 9:15am Apr 1, 2012 9:15am
Quoting chiba_san
do you mean usa open, uk or asian? or any open
I think somewhere he has said it's any open. But it's a known fact that London open is best quality one as far as trading activity is concerned followed by NY and Japan open in that order. However, let's wait for Ken to confirm.
Not trend, but imbalance is my friend
  • #3,356
  • Apr 1, 2012 12:18pm Apr 1, 2012 12:18pm
Quoting pbanerjee
I think somewhere he has said it's any open. But it's a known fact that London open is best quality one as far as trading activity is concerned followed by NY and Japan open in that order. However, let's wait for Ken to confirm.

Sure just common sense .. London is the financial capital of the world due to tax laws and such , I watch the countries currencies in relationship to the session , Oz in the evening for Australia, followed by the yens for Japan, then eruo for Frankfurt and then of course London moves them all and then the U.S. which at times can be a very slow session .

Nothing is written in stone. But just remember the idea is that business hours are in relationship to the sessions so as more companies open for work more transactions take place.

I don't see the fascination with all this just learn to read charts it is all there but keep in mind the normal workings of the world. People have to transfer funds from one country to another for different reasons that is going to happen when the banks are open.

Large transactions may try and get a better rate , but that is a gamble for those that aren't currency traders and reeks of gambling and many companies have lost loads trying to play that game.

Just focus on our goal to be technical traders and seeing what the majority is doing and joining in .

Wish everyone a great coming week and new month. Trade safe and happy Ken
Good Trading To All ; Ken Lee
  • #3,357
  • Apr 1, 2012 12:25pm Apr 1, 2012 12:25pm
Quoting Kenneth Lee
Sure just common sense .. London is the financial capital of the world due to tax laws and such , I watch the countries currencies in relationship to the session , Oz in the evening for Australia, followed by the yens for Japan, then eruo for Frankfurt and then of course London moves them all and then the U.S. which at times can be a very slow session .

Nothing is written in stone. But just remember the idea is that business hours are in relationship to the sessions so as more companies open for work more transactions take place.

I don't see...

Keeping it simple...Sometimes the hardest thing to do.
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Illegitimi non carborundum - Noli pati a scelestis opprimi.
  • #3,358
  • Apr 1, 2012 1:18pm Apr 1, 2012 1:18pm
Thanks Ken/Rufus.

I think one way to understand and work this method is also to occasionally discuss some S/D levels that didn't work out. I am posting the latest 1H chart of USD/JPY where the lower supply level didn't work out (thankfully I missed the level).

First of all, is the level good? If yes, is there any logical reason for it's failure? Even the higher TF was supporting a sell trade.

Apart from being last working day of the financial year, the other reason I can think of is that the price was making higher lows in it's ascent to the lower supply level.

The other contentious situation is that of higher supply level.. is there any rule of thumb on whether or not to trade the lower supply level? When is best to stay away and when is good to trade the lower ones? I would have imagined when longer TF trend was down, I could short the lower supply level?

I'm sorry if this overlaps with something already discussed.
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Not trend, but imbalance is my friend
  • #3,359
  • Apr 1, 2012 3:02pm Apr 1, 2012 3:02pm
Quoting pbanerjee
Thanks Ken/Rufus.

I think one way to understand and work this method is also to occasionally discuss some S/D levels that didn't work out. I am posting the latest 1H chart of USD/JPY where the lower supply level didn't work out (thankfully I missed the level).

First of all, is the level good? If yes, is there any logical reason for it's failure? Even the higher TF was supporting a sell trade.

Apart from being last working day of the financial year, the other reason I can think of is that the price was making higher lows in it's ascent to the...

As to which supply to short. You could short both. Half the risk on the lower, short again on the next. Stop above the highest zone. The point is that you are not limited as to how to trade the zones as long as you control your risk.

For set and forget positions I will look for what appears to be the freshest and strongest. It comes down to what is comfortable for you.

A few posts back you mentioned your trading plan. Just finished redoing mine. The trading part stayed the same. However the area of the plan that changed the most is the mental or psychological section. I am not trying to single you out here, I am just saying that most people focus to hard on the trading part of the plan and not enough on the psychological. Traders are defeated between their ears long before there is a trading system failure.

As for the chart. The lower supply was a second test of a swap. So for me not a fresh level.

Happy trading
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Illegitimi non carborundum - Noli pati a scelestis opprimi.
  • #3,360
  • Apr 1, 2012 5:35pm Apr 1, 2012 5:35pm
Is the supply on Cable around 1.61 on anyone else's radar?
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