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  • #61
  • Edited 2:15am Mar 30, 2012 1:56am | Edited 2:15am
i did reenter Aussie at same original entry price as with first try..so with the -30 pips from first try i am about +30 pips up for now...le's see if it can reach the 61.6 fib level area at 1.046

i went long AJ too but got stopped out over night by the spike cause i trailed my stop too early so -9 pips her

i also went long GBPUSD but went out last night at +50 pips...so i missed that whole rally this morning ..could have been 132 pips so far...

edit: okay i closed aussie for now +46 pips
  • #62
  • Mar 30, 2012 2:46am Mar 30, 2012 2:46am
possible 5 wave rally in gbpusd ending at the upper trend channel line..
daily dtosc already in downcycle....4h might follow soon



this whole move is a bear trap inside a bigger abcde pattern to shake out the ones already short the cable

Quoting torkay77
trap for bulls
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ScreenHunter_38 Mar. 30 09.36.gif Size: 58 KB
  • #63
  • Mar 30, 2012 5:55am Mar 30, 2012 5:55am
Quoting Dave Floyd
"S&P have also completed a 5 wave down on H1" - what is H1? If you are referring to the sell-off from the 1419 highs that was a correction and cannot be in 5-waves - look closely at the structure, it unfolded in only 3-waves to complete Wave ii at the 1394 area, i.e. today's low.

If you think the S&P's are in an overall bearish count you cannot possible be looking to get long AUD/USD - the weakest pair in the G10 in recent weeks. As of right now, I do not see a bearish count in the S&P's.
This is the 5 wave I'm counting on the S&P, is this valid?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #64
  • Edited 7:31am Mar 30, 2012 7:21am | Edited 7:31am
Quoting lithium1
This is the 5 wave I'm counting on the S&P, is this valid?
Attachment
it think this wave is part of a running flat abc correction..it develops in 3-3-5 structure, so the 5 wave move would be a C..it often develops into an abcde pattern..so we are now in wave d maybe

it could develop a broadening wegde if wave d makes a new high
  • #65
  • Mar 30, 2012 7:32am Mar 30, 2012 7:32am
torkay, do you trade forex futures or spot market?
  • #66
  • Mar 30, 2012 7:38am Mar 30, 2012 7:38am
i trade spot only i just check the futures cause they are important for correlations

i plan to trade futures in the future but for that I need bigger account balance first ...
  • #67
  • Mar 30, 2012 7:47am Mar 30, 2012 7:47am
I'm trading the Hang seng index futures.

I compile it's 1 minute volume data to find support and resistance. And also predict where the big boys' position level is. It's quite accurate.

Do you have any 1 min vol data for forex futures?
  • #68
  • Mar 30, 2012 7:54am Mar 30, 2012 7:54am
Quoting Dave Floyd
A shorter-term AUD/USD count that dovetails in with the longer-term count.

To answer your question regarding stops - assuming you scale into a trade like this into the Fib support levels noted (sounds like that might be a limitation given your earlier comments on lot sizes) stops at minimum would have to be just under the .786 retracement - there are no other technically relevant points based on this wave count.

http://www.aspentrading.com/uploaded...12aud15min.png

Account size to be effective? Tough question,...
Using common risk manage, we risk 2% of fund per trade. So 2% of $5000 is $100.

If we use multiple lots, say 2 lots, means $50 per lot. $50 means 50pips in a micro account. So 50 pips should be a wide enough stop?
  • #69
  • Mar 30, 2012 8:09am Mar 30, 2012 8:09am
Quoting lithium1
I'm trading the Hang seng index futures.

I compile it's 1 minute volume data to find support and resistance. And also predict where the big boys' position level is. It's quite accurate.

Do you have any 1 min vol data for forex futures?
i had future demo accounts with zenfire data..but they last only 30 days..so i use the free data available mostly from forexpros.com only it is lagging but as i use only 1h data an higher i don't care

i tried volume system some time like vsa system but could not make any money from it
  • #70
  • Mar 30, 2012 8:14am Mar 30, 2012 8:14am
Quoting torkay77
i had future demo accounts with zenfire data..but they last only 30 days..so i use the free data available mostly from forexpros.com only it is lagging but as i use only 1h data an higher i don't care

i tried volume system some time like vsa system but could not make any money from it
I think you didn't get what I mean, I'm using the 1 minute vol data to find support and resistance......... let me show an example to you.
  • #71
  • Mar 30, 2012 8:20am Mar 30, 2012 8:20am
After compilation, it looks like this.

The first column is the HSI level. i.e. 2065 means 20650 to 20660 level.

The 2nd column onwards is the number of futures contracts transacted in these levels.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: HSI.jpg Size: 207 KB
  • #72
  • Mar 30, 2012 8:27am Mar 30, 2012 8:27am
interesting stuff how i see which is support and resistance and how you get the data into excel?
  • #73
  • Mar 30, 2012 8:31am Mar 30, 2012 8:31am
From above data, you can see on 29th March, the high volume levels are 20620~20650 levels and 20540~20570 levels.

And here is today's chart, can you see how 20540 acting as resistance towards the end of trading day?

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: HSI1.jpg Size: 316 KB
  • #74
  • Mar 30, 2012 8:33am Mar 30, 2012 8:33am
Quoting torkay77
interesting stuff how i see which is support and resistance and how you get the data into excel?
This is how the raw data looks like. I need to copy these data to excel and compile it using pivot table function.

Attachment
  • #75
  • Mar 30, 2012 8:38am Mar 30, 2012 8:38am
SHORT 2 positions of S&P at 1403.5, SL 2405.25, first target 1402.25 to take profit of 1 position.
  • #76
  • Mar 30, 2012 8:44am Mar 30, 2012 8:44am
but isn't it that high volume doesn't mean resistance all the time? ..high volume can signal also the beginning of an impulsive bull trend
  • #77
  • Edited 8:57am Mar 30, 2012 8:45am | Edited 8:57am
Take 1 position profit at 1402.25, +1.25pts, equivalent to +6pips

Move 2nd lot sl to 1404.5
  • #78
  • Edited 10:46am Mar 30, 2012 8:55am | Edited 10:46am
Quoting torkay77
but isn't it that high volume doesn't mean resistance all the time? ..high volume can signal also the beginning of an impulsive bull trend
These levels are the high transactions levels, means many futures contract is done at these levels. We can assume big boys positions are at these levels. Their position is LONG or SHORT? If we assume the big boys always win, if market going above these levels, we assume the big boys are long, if market goes below, we assume they are short.

I also compare the number of contracts done at these levels, let's say there are 50k contracts done in 20550~20650 levels, and the market goes up to around 22000 levels, and there is another 50k contracts done. I will assume these big boys have taken profit and squared their positions, and they may be looking to build short positions to swing down again.

Can you get some 1 minute volume data for forex futures contract? Let's try if it works in forex.
  • #79
  • Mar 30, 2012 9:02am Mar 30, 2012 9:02am
Quoting lithium1
Take 1 position profit at 1402.25, +1.25pts, equivalent to +6pips

Move 2nd lot sl to 1404.5
Move sl to 1404
  • #80
  • Mar 30, 2012 9:11am Mar 30, 2012 9:11am
Quoting lithium1
Move sl to 1404
move sl to 1402.75
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