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Price is everything

  • #27,581
  • Mar 28, 2012 7:47am Mar 28, 2012 7:47am
Quoting Rosa
OK, but i don't understand, if i will be waiting price to come back at my supply zone (chart) then this comeback will negate this bear channel, so there will be bull signal si ?
Your PA may easily change while waiting for daily level.

These zones may still for now fit into your channel
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  • #27,582
  • Mar 28, 2012 9:53am Mar 28, 2012 9:53am
Quoting beebolbod
Yeah i'm working on that. I always define stop and general TG area but i tend to close out partial and let rest to run so i dont always have clear TG.

Nothing is worse for me at this stage of my trading to either
a: have price come back after missing my (ambitious) TG.
b: hit (modest) TG and zoom past it whilst sticking it's tongue out at me on the way past.

So now i tend to set a modest TG, take some profit, set stop to BE+, let remainder run to potential extra TG areas.

Attachment

Attachment

I...
this is my reasoning for how i do it.... not saying i'm right but it fits with where i am in my trading right now....
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I closed it all out not long ago, but for more pips and with less hassle/emotion than if i'd defined hard TG.
  • #27,583
  • Mar 28, 2012 10:17am Mar 28, 2012 10:17am
AU

Will see what transpires
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  • #27,584
  • Mar 28, 2012 1:36pm Mar 28, 2012 1:36pm
Long off a Outside Key Reversal (OKR)
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Without VSA, you're playing checkers while the Smart Money plays chess.
  • #27,585
  • Mar 28, 2012 2:35pm Mar 28, 2012 2:35pm
Update...
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Without VSA, you're playing checkers while the Smart Money plays chess.
  • #27,586
  • Mar 28, 2012 4:37pm Mar 28, 2012 4:37pm
Hi Porkpie. A question for you please, or anyone else who can give me some feedback. I’ve addressed it to you because you seem to trade in a very similar way to me and you also frequently mention Sam Seiden’s methods, who I’ve learnt a lot from.

I’ve attached some current charts of the NZD (daily, hourly and M15) and these are my general thoughts and questions:

The daily shows a supply level I’ve marked as ‘B’. In the past I would have ignored this level, simply because price has been in the area before – at the yellow arrow. My thoughts here are that supply may be reduced here as price has been in the area before only a week or so earlier. My main question is whether this is indeed the case, or if supply ‘B’ has the necessary rally base drop, then the earlier yellow arrow supply does not unduly affect the setup at ‘B’? Would you take the trade on return to supply at ‘B’ or leave it based on yellow arrow?

From here, what I would do is drop to H1 and look for evidence of price meeting supply, which is what happens in the area of those 2 grey rectangles I’ve drawn on the hourly chart. Dropping to M15, you can see what the 2 grey rectangles of supply are based on.

Next step would be to set sell orders at these levels, with stops above each grey supply rectangle. Targets = nearest H1 demand initially, with R:R of 2:1 minimum. Entry could be based on hourly supply rather than M15 if there was suitable R:R.

Question 2: Now that price has in fact moved some distance from these supply areas and is down into >TF demand, my approach would generally be to be more cautious. That is, when price returns to marked supply, I’d be more inclined to take full profit at the nearest H1 demand, or at least protect my position. Is this how you or others would approach it?

Question 3: Given that you would trade based of supply at ‘B’, would you consider both levels ‘1’ and ’2’ on M15 to be strong supply? Again, my approach would be to trade off ‘2’ (if R:R suitable). If ‘2’ failed, I would enter again at ‘1’. If ‘2’ produced a win and price then returned to ‘1’ with suitable R:R, I’d enter again.

Sorry for the essay here. Am trying to get down all the various things I’m thinking as I assess a position!

Oh, one other thing. The area 'A' on daily charts. This fits in with what I'm saying about 'B' and the yellow arrow supply area at same level but prior to it. If hourly confirmed supply on re-approach to 'A', and then provided suitable R:R for entry on H1 or M15, is the daily supply considered strong enough, or has it spent too much time there before to even consider looking for entries?
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  • #27,587
  • Mar 28, 2012 8:58pm Mar 28, 2012 8:58pm
Quoting Ifmyante
Ah, I see your trade in M30

This one really sucked for you

Price consumed demand rather than being rejected

The D1 had the clues you needed for this

See how your account goes by taking the bare minimum from trades - you know - the guaranteed pips.
You may be surprised at the results, and the lack of stress
Hi If,
I'm quite new to this thread, though I have started reading kenny's pdf and also read & saw some of Sam seiden's articles & videos. I have some understanding of demand & supply zones etc but still not in depth enough and still considered a noob in this concept. When you said "Price consumed demand rather than being rejected", can u elaborate & explain further? Thanks! (sorry if this is not the right place to ask this question kindly direct me to the right place pls, thks)
  • #27,588
  • Mar 28, 2012 9:39pm Mar 28, 2012 9:39pm
Hi. Hope you don't mind me adding my thoughts here. It also helps me to consolidate my understanding.

Always be extremely wary trading in the opposite direction to larger timeframes. At the daily level, you were right into an area of supply, so unless you have a very good reason, avoid buying into demand on lower timeframes.

If that daily supply had been tested already, with price penetrating deeply into the level, there might have been more reason to go long. Even so, for me there would have to be something outstanding, like strong weekly demand just beneath us. As it stands, weekly supply is just above daily supply and weekly demand is some way further down around 0.78 say.

Thats my 2 cents - will be interested to hear other thoughts..

Quoting Fx7877
Hi If,
I'm quite new to this thread, though I have started reading kenny's pdf and also read & saw some of Sam seiden's articles & videos. I have some understanding of demand & supply zones etc but still not in depth enough and still considered a noob in this concept. When you said "Price consumed demand rather than being rejected", can u elaborate & explain further? Thanks! (sorry if this is not the right place to ask this question kindly direct me to the right place pls, thks)
  • #27,589
  • Mar 28, 2012 11:38pm Mar 28, 2012 11:38pm
Look for possible pullback and long

Glad to see everyone posting, especially Senior Members in the thread
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The things that we love tell us what we are Thanks Redsword11 and Tim Morge
  • #27,590
  • Mar 28, 2012 11:48pm Mar 28, 2012 11:48pm
AU Long GL!

Quoting eaglestar
Look for possible pullback and long

Glad to see everyone posting, especially Senior Members in the thread
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  • #27,591
  • Mar 28, 2012 11:50pm Mar 28, 2012 11:50pm
Today, my Review in HERE

Cable in Post #476 & Euro in Post #478


G/L
Always looking the GREAT, never left GOOD Point...
  • #27,592
  • Mar 29, 2012 2:27am Mar 29, 2012 2:27am
Quoting Fx7877
Hi If,
I'm quite new to this thread, though I have started reading kenny's pdf and also read & saw some of Sam seiden's articles & videos. I have some understanding of demand & supply zones etc but still not in depth enough and still considered a noob in this concept. When you said "Price consumed demand rather than being rejected", can u elaborate & explain further? Thanks! (sorry if this is not the right place to ask this question kindly direct me to the right place pls, thks)
It's better asked here... http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=300889 but it seems these threads are merging... i dont know.

I'll try and explain as i understand it, then i might prove i learned something. Or not. Then maybe If or others can correct me.

More sellers than buyers basically. That's why the higher TF zones and direction are very important when droppping down TFs.

If you are in m5 and buying in a D1 supply zone you're in a scary place.
  • #27,593
  • Mar 29, 2012 3:39am Mar 29, 2012 3:39am
Quoting BenStevo
Hi. Hope you don't mind me adding my thoughts here. It also helps me to consolidate my understanding.

Always be extremely wary trading in the opposite direction to larger timeframes. At the daily level, you were right into an area of supply, so unless you have a very good reason, avoid buying into demand on lower timeframes.

If that daily supply had been tested already, with price penetrating deeply into the level, there might have been more reason to go long. Even so, for me there would have to be something outstanding, like strong weekly...
Hi Ben,
Thanks for shedding some light!

Quoting beebolbod
It's better asked here... http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=300889 but it seems these threads are merging... i dont know.

I'll try and explain as i understand it, then i might prove i learned something. Or not. Then maybe If or others can correct me.

More sellers than buyers basically. That's why the higher TF zones and direction are very important when droppping down TFs.

If you are in m5 and buying in a D1 supply zone you're in a scary place.
Hi Bee,
Good to see u hear and thanks for chipping in. Yea, I'm not too sure what's the diff bet these threads...

Folks,
Say if I'm trading M30, which higher TF DD/SS zone must I watch out for? H1 or H4, or D1? Or all of them? If its all of them, wouldnnt we end up having too many zones and paralyzed with the analysis to enter any trades? Perhaps there is a better way to manage? Kindly advise, thks!
  • #27,594
  • Mar 29, 2012 3:46am Mar 29, 2012 3:46am
Answer to PM.

Best to share with all
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  • #27,595
  • Mar 29, 2012 3:52am Mar 29, 2012 3:52am
Quoting Fx7877
Say if I'm trading M30, which higher TF DD/SS zone must I watch out for? H1 or H4, or D1? Or all of them? If its all of them, wouldnnt we end up having too many zones and paralyzed with the analysis to enter any trades? Perhaps there is a better way to manage? Kindly advise, thks!
OK

say you hit a nice M30 S deep in D1 S. Why make it just an M30 trade?

Why not manage it on Daily?

If it's deep, then your stop shouldn't be that much greater
  • #27,596
  • Mar 29, 2012 4:01am Mar 29, 2012 4:01am
Quoting Fx7877
Hi Ben,
Thanks for shedding some light!



Hi Bee,
Good to see u hear and thanks for chipping in. Yea, I'm not too sure what's the diff bet these threads...

Folks,
Say if I'm trading M30, which higher TF DD/SS zone must I watch out for? H1 or H4, or D1? Or all of them? If its all of them, wouldnnt we end up having too many zones and paralyzed with the analysis to enter any trades? Perhaps there is a better way to manage? Kindly advise, thks!
Nice to see you to
A lot of this will be answered in this thread. Look at the charts these good people have posted. They do tell us most of the answers. (i'm only on page 250)

To answer your question to the best of my understanding - all of them.

do some more reading and then try drawing a few zones from W1 down to say m15 - you'll see that they are often nested or refined down to more specific prices.
  • #27,597
  • Mar 29, 2012 4:16am Mar 29, 2012 4:16am
Quoting Fx7877
Hi If,
I'm quite new to this thread, though I have started reading kenny's pdf and also read & saw some of Sam seiden's articles & videos. I have some understanding of demand & supply zones etc but still not in depth enough and still considered a noob in this concept. When you said "Price consumed demand rather than being rejected", can u elaborate & explain further? Thanks! (sorry if this is not the right place to ask this question kindly direct me to the right place pls, thks)
Consumption and rejection are the same thing.

But seeing the bigger picture will give you an idea of what will happen next
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  • #27,598
  • Edited 5:14am Mar 29, 2012 4:26am | Edited 5:14am
I'm looking at this with interest... nothing to get me in yet but some possible clues in the making perhaps.
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If - am i ok to post like this in here? I mean it doesn't have to be live trades does it? I got a few running if that's the case

EDIT - sorry, the D1 chart was supposed to have some writing on it.... gone now. I only said that the Gartley was simply overlaid from H4, NOT a D1 Gartley.
If we made it into the D1 zone a little more and got some decent PA in there i'd look long.
  • #27,599
  • Mar 29, 2012 4:35am Mar 29, 2012 4:35am
Quoting beebolbod
If - am i ok to post like this in here? I mean it doesn't have to be live trades does it? I got a few running if that's the case
I do believe so

All that needs to be said re trading has already been said.

Folks can now discuss it here at their leisure.

I'll keep trying to make concise charts to explain each and every topic once only.

I think we'll use the chat thread for an homework club that I'll start this weekend.

I'll set the homework each weekend, but correcting it will definitely have to be a group effort - I need to find time to trade
  • #27,600
  • Mar 29, 2012 4:42am Mar 29, 2012 4:42am
Quoting Ifmyante
I do believe so

All that needs to be said re trading has already been said.

Folks can now discuss it here at their leisure.

I'll keep trying to make concise charts to explain each and every topic once only.

I think we'll use the chat thread for an homework club that I'll start this weekend.

I'll set the homework each weekend, but correcting it will definitely have to be a group effort - I need to find time to trade
Good. I was posting quite a bit in J16 but it's a bit dead in there now (all in the PF i guess) so i might stick my trades here instead. i pretty much always do charts and analysis, post it and trade it (if appropriate) as much for myself as anyone else.
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