Islander and Medici trade the European open | Page 201 | Forex Factory

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Attachments: Islander and Medici trade the European open
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Islander and Medici trade the European open

  • #4,001
  • Mar 28, 2012 10:16pm Mar 28, 2012 10:16pm
EU 8-RB, Could'nt sleep, watching this x.xx30 level..
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  • #4,002
  • Mar 29, 2012 1:03am Mar 29, 2012 1:03am
Quoting Fx93
Thanks for making me learn about range bars, they do seem to make technical trading clearer. Have you guys estimated how they compare to time charts. For example, a 15 pip chart seems close to the hourly to me, perhaps a bit less.
If the ATR of the H1 chart is 15 pips, then the RB15 would roughly correspond to the H1, but the market moves at different speeds at different times, and that's the point with range bars. During news time for example, RB5 can be like a 10 second chart, which makes range bars ideal for varying market conditions. So range bars can be thought of as regular bars where time moves at the speed of the market, but with a noise filter built in corresponding to the range of the bars.

Quote
Anyway, I was going to show you a setup I found today which seems really good. It uses a 50 TEMA (triple exponential average) with a 12,26,9 reverse engineering MACD on the chart. The setup is that one will notice at times the momentum makes the 50 TEMA outpace past the pink MACD line, and this is about always a reversal. There is one occurring as I speak on the Euro.

But here is one a few days back on the Euro 5 pip range chart.

Below the pink and blue lines is the MACD, while the dotted line is the 50 TEMA. Check your indicator for divergence,...
There are many ways of trading range bars, as seen from many threads here on FF. Your idea doesn't seem that closely connected to what we have been doing here lately. In fact, it may deserve a thread of its own once it has been tested for significantly more than 10 days and in market conditions other than hot trends.
  • #4,003
  • Mar 29, 2012 1:21am Mar 29, 2012 1:21am
Clear RB7 entry at the open
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  • #4,004
  • Mar 29, 2012 4:31am Mar 29, 2012 4:31am
EJ looked better for a short to me this morning. Possibly slightly premature exit on second attempt at 50 level, out for +28.

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Follow, don't anticipate.
  • #4,005
  • Mar 29, 2012 4:45am Mar 29, 2012 4:45am
Here's some recent EJ RB7 trades. I took both the red arrows. The first one I allowed to come back to a bit of drawdown once but when it bounced off 75 again I closed it at BE. Waited a bit and found a better chance to enter the nice trend which EJ has provided (unlike crappy EU up to that point). Also note the white arrow as a second chance if you missed the original shorts.

The target is 17 which you can see on the H1 chart but I am also watching EU for possible exit clues before that point if need be.
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  • #4,006
  • Mar 29, 2012 4:48am Mar 29, 2012 4:48am
Quoting Ian
EJ looked better for a short to me this morning. Possibly slightly premature exit on second attempt at 50 level, out for +28.

Attachment
Nice, beat me to it.

Pertinent quote?

"Traders and Surfers both have to deal with feelings of missing out on the small ones, until the big one comes along. They also have to deal with feelings of staying with the big one."
  • #4,007
  • Mar 29, 2012 4:50am Mar 29, 2012 4:50am
Quoting Auron112
Nice, beat me to it.

Pertinent quote?

"Traders and Surfers both have to deal with feelings of missing out on the small ones, until the big one comes along. They also have to deal with feelings of staying with the big one."
Yes, I need to work on my targets. Thanks for the H1 chart, really useful..
Follow, don't anticipate.
  • #4,008
  • Mar 29, 2012 5:20am Mar 29, 2012 5:20am
Quoting Ian
Yes, I need to work on my targets. Thanks for the H1 chart, really useful..
There's nothing wrong with banking +28 on a strong move like that off the level considering it's an excellent R:R play. However, if you do bank pips in what could be a strong trending move you just have to be ready to get back in if it resumes like off the white arrow at MS2 in my RB7 chart above. There was also a nice dual shooting star in RB5 that could be taken as you can see below. By the way Ian, not lecturing you, just general thoughts for the thread on exits/re-entries.

As for my trade, I'm now out. Exited in two parts which I sometimes do in these strong trending moves. I'm using the RB5 here to better illustrate the management even though it was a RB7 trade.

I took out the first chunk after the pattern on the EU RB7 (second chart) appeared. Off the S1 and seemed likely to push up so even though EJ looked more bearish a good place to take some pips.

I then took the second part when the next push down failed and formed the EJ HL. So basically both exits ended up being worth the same for about +45. We could still push to that 109.17 area but given the time of day and the PA it made sense to bank it.
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  • #4,009
  • Mar 29, 2012 5:58am Mar 29, 2012 5:58am
Quoting Auron112

The target is 17 which you can see on the H1 chart but I am also watching EU for possible exit clues before that point if need be.
Well, someone with more courage who had his patience pill prescription renewed might have got it.

I did try a perhaps ill-advised long off the EJ RB7 at 17 but took a couple pips loss when the tick flow turned in a very sudden way. Bailed as quick as I could and mostly just lost spread but no chance to reverse. Not sure if I would have wanted to into the 17 anyways even though it looks good on RB5.
  • #4,010
  • Mar 29, 2012 6:09am Mar 29, 2012 6:09am
Quoting Auron112
There's nothing wrong with banking +28 on a strong move like that off the level considering it's an excellent R:R play. However, if you do bank pips in what could be a strong trending move you just have to be ready to get back in if it resumes like off the white arrow at MS2 in my RB7 chart above. There was also a nice dual shooting star in RB5 that could be taken as you can see below. By the way Ian, not lecturing you, just general thoughts for the thread on exits/re-entries.

As for my trade, I'm now out. Exited in two parts which...
Not taken as such, I'm always appreciative of your analysis on trade management and exits which are a work in progress for me.

BTW I see we've just hit your original target, good stuff..
Follow, don't anticipate.
  • #4,011
  • Mar 29, 2012 6:11am Mar 29, 2012 6:11am
Quoting Ian
Not taken as such, I'm always appreciative of your analysis on trade management and exits which are a work in progress for me.

BTW I see we've just hit your original target, good stuff..
A work in progress for us all, my friend, and the work will never be done...
  • #4,012
  • Mar 29, 2012 6:14am Mar 29, 2012 6:14am
Quoting Auron112
A work in progress for us all, my friend, and the work will never be done...
Yes, but even when you get out early it's still nice to see your target hit, showing your original analysis to have been sound...
Follow, don't anticipate.
  • #4,013
  • Mar 29, 2012 10:23am Mar 29, 2012 10:23am
Thought I would post one last trade today as a demonstration of patience and waiting for the cloud to set up right. It took some time but I finally got rewarded.

As you can see prior to the green arrow, the cloud is tight but we don't have any decent entries along the edge with a MA8 flat/turned. Possible exception of the bar 10 before entry, but then you are trading into the very recent low and a breakout isn't a good trade either. So the best bet is to wait for everything to line up and in this case the MA8 crossed above the now turned MA17 and flipped our cloud. A minor pullback from our earlier level provided the entry which was picture-perfect off 109.00

Original target was 109.17 (hmm, where have I heard that number today?) but when we quickly overshot it I decided to hold for another leg or just take a handful if we dropped. We shot up to another prior resistance area around 109.36 (also S2) and I took my 30 pips the second time it went up to it and fell since we were so extended from the cloud. Done for the day and happy I got something decent out of that mess of a New York session.
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  • #4,014
  • Edited 4:11pm Mar 29, 2012 4:10pm | Edited 4:11pm
Quoting Auron112
You should share a few charts, it could be helpful. Any guesses (or hopefully firm data) on what's been hurting your results this week? Too many CT trades? Not following the MAs?

No worries though. Loads of time to get back on track to finish off the week if you have worked out where the mistakes are being made and have a plan to turn it around.

The chart below shows My one and only trade of the day for you chaps to cogitate over, what a perfect setup your thinking?.Right, Having placed the trade on MT(demo) I then placed the real trade with my broker at 1.33351 with a 10pip SL....... Go on, Scroll back on your chart and have a look at the outcome!!!. Now Is that the sound of air drawing through your teeth or is it the sound of gas inside this oven?.


doc
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  • #4,015
  • Mar 29, 2012 5:49pm Mar 29, 2012 5:49pm
Hi doc,

You would either be satisfied with 4 pip profit, or, hmm... 9,999 pips SL near hit at 08:54, then take nice 10, 18, or even 83 pips .

But my day wasn't any different (assuming your SL got hit). After 9:47 I decided to do some other stuff at home, as I didn't feel well today (you must believe me!).

Those in red are my entries, and yellow are those I would have taken if I could focus a little bit longer.

Do you guys know what TPs would have been appropriate to take? My SL is only (?) 7 pips which makes about 1 pip behind the entry bar.

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  • #4,016
  • Mar 29, 2012 6:08pm Mar 29, 2012 6:08pm
[quote=Krisdetrader;5525450]Hi doc,

You would either be satisfied with 4 pip profit, or, hmm... 9,999 pips SL near hit at 08:54, then take nice 10, 18, or even 83 pips .

But my day wasn't any different (assuming your SL got hit). ....quote]

Yes, SL hit (.4)!!!, Having one of those weeks when everything turns to stone. Don't think i'll bother with a lottery ticket this week - just my luck to put it through the shredder along with my trading statements!!!.
  • #4,017
  • Mar 29, 2012 9:17pm Mar 29, 2012 9:17pm
Wow, I'm addicted to the 1 pip range bar charts lol, I thought 1m charts was as low as I could go with thinkorswim.

It's good for with the trend divergence.
  • #4,018
  • Mar 30, 2012 1:57am Mar 30, 2012 1:57am
Through gritted teeth I bought on the pull back into the cloud, now thats unlucky!!!. I don't know which could be more deflated, me or a prison sex doll!!!.

have a good weekend all , we shall persevere again next week no doubt!! of course, dependant on how much I collect?, now where's the tin whistle and the dog!

doc.
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  • #4,019
  • Mar 30, 2012 2:02am Mar 30, 2012 2:02am
Quoting Fx93
Wow, I'm addicted to the 1 pip range bar charts lol, I thought 1m charts was as low as I could go with thinkorswim.

It's good for with the trend divergence.
  • #4,020
  • Mar 30, 2012 3:09am Mar 30, 2012 3:09am
Hi doc,
I am sorry to hear that...
You can call me dr breakeven as this is what i have been doing for the past 2 months .
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