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Amyc Trade Journal

  • #981
  • Mar 28, 2012 7:30pm Mar 28, 2012 7:30pm
I don't think GU is leading the market for currencies, I think the yen is. Make a monthly chart of any major currency v's the yen, they all look identical since March last year
  • #982
  • Mar 28, 2012 7:34pm Mar 28, 2012 7:34pm
Quoting amyc
I don't think GU is leading the market for currencies, I think the yen is. Make a monthly chart of any major currency v's the yen, they all look identical since March last year
I have been watching Amy .. Yen on all crosses.. Thks for confirmation..
  • #983
  • Mar 28, 2012 7:36pm Mar 28, 2012 7:36pm
Thankyou. so the Yen is the leader.

....................................................

Amy can you post the chart / charts major currency v's the yen, or send it to me please. Do you make them in fib trader ? or another place ?

I would like to make some up.
  • #984
  • Mar 28, 2012 7:42pm Mar 28, 2012 7:42pm
USDYEN Monthly

I was a buyer of this pair in q4 last year, I am looking for price to move up over the longterm, by longterm I mean 10 years or so. Currently price has just missed the yearly highs for 2012, it looks like it will probably have another go in Q2. If price can get above the 85.50 area then that will pretty much confirm that we have seen a longterm bottom.

AU has been under pressure ever since this pair started rising in February. (just thinking out loud)
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdyen.GIF Size: 15 KB
  • #985
  • Mar 28, 2012 7:46pm Mar 28, 2012 7:46pm
My H4 candle close on A/U in 15 min is not going to be a good sign for longs. I'll be exiting soon.
When this baby hits 88 miles per hour, you're gonna see some serious s***.
  • #986
  • Mar 28, 2012 7:48pm Mar 28, 2012 7:48pm
awesome chart and view thankyou.

...............................................

Hi Marc

I took a 10 pip loss on AU on my long and exited. then I shorted yesterday very short term trades.
resistance at max is 1.0420 today. Im short from 1.0395 today. im going to exit my short 1.0353 area soon to.
  • #987
  • Mar 28, 2012 7:51pm Mar 28, 2012 7:51pm
AJ Monthly

This pair has just missed the yearly highs as well, price should move to 90 next quarter. My hunch is this pair maybe holding au up before an unwind to 91c.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: aj.GIF Size: 16 KB
  • #988
  • Mar 28, 2012 7:58pm Mar 28, 2012 7:58pm
very cool Amy these long term charts are excellent.

Its 12 month levels?

I will check all mine too.
  • #989
  • Mar 28, 2012 7:59pm Mar 28, 2012 7:59pm
Quoting ianlikesgolf
Thankyou. so the Yen is the leader.

....................................................

Amy can you post the chart / charts major currency v's the yen, or send it to me please. Do you make them in fib trader ? or another place ?

I would like to make some up.
I am just speculating, probably different currencies lead at different times but i think that the yen probably hit a longterm turning point last March.
  • #990
  • Mar 28, 2012 8:10pm Mar 28, 2012 8:10pm
AU weekly

If price cannot get a quarterly open above the midpoints, currently sitting at 456 then I think au has topped for the year. I think price will see 91 before it will move above 856 again this year.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: au.GIF Size: 22 KB
  • #991
  • Edited 10:07pm Mar 28, 2012 9:56pm | Edited 10:07pm
I have a 3 quarter and yearly mid point at 1.0402.

the 5 weekly mid at 1.0558. has a low of 1.0298. this is an interesting chart to me as AU hit that mid point this week.

just an idea.
possible move down into support now taking place. A bounce off 1.0298 returning to close the quarter out above 1.0402.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: mar 29 au 5 x weekly.jpg Size: 89 KB
  • #992
  • Mar 28, 2012 10:12pm Mar 28, 2012 10:12pm
Quoting ianlikesgolf
I have a 3 quarter and yearly mid point at 1.0402.

the 5 weekly mid at 1.0558. has a low of 1.0298. this is an interesting chart to me as AU hit that mid point this week.

just an idea.
possible move down into support now taking place. A bounce off 1.0298 returning to close the quarter out above 1.0402.
I have very different numbers to you. I have shut all my charts off for the week so i can't post anymore but I'm pretty sure my yearly mid comes in at 223 and 3 quarter around 300.
  • #993
  • Edited 11:12pm Mar 28, 2012 10:17pm | Edited 11:12pm
thankyou. I will check the yearly + 3 quarter mid levels manually.

I may stand aside and wait till next week and new quarter open.

...............................................
1.0230 yearly mid. 3 quarter checking again. my indicator is not calculating these two levels correctly.
I checked my other levels 3 x monthly + 3 x weekly, other time frames fine. thanks for posting your numbers.
  • #994
  • Mar 29, 2012 7:05pm Mar 29, 2012 7:05pm
I entered at 1.0321 last night it was my second entry. Im holding up to 1.0486 or 1.0556. There will be another trip back down. I ddnt use a range bar entry on my first entry attempt, it was my first mistake. Then I used a range bar entry for 1.0321, but I didnt wait for the new range bar to open and PA to find support, it still had 1 pip to go before changing to a new one. (PA had reached a low of 1.0315 at this time.) then PA tanked back down to a low of 1.0303 and the new range bar opened at 1.0314 in the process. It was a stressful entry for me. I held onto my position.
Its now doing ok at present. Its really important for PA to find support I think before entry.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: mar 30 au 1 hr.jpg Size: 85 KB
  • #995
  • Mar 29, 2012 7:42pm Mar 29, 2012 7:42pm
Quoting ianlikesgolf
I entered at 1.0321 last night it was my second entry. Im holding up to 1.0486 or 1.0556. There will be another trip back down. I ddnt use a range bar entry on my first entry attempt, it was my first mistake. Then I used a range bar entry for 1.0321, but I didnt wait for the new range bar to open and PA to find support, it still had 1 pip to go before changing to a new one. (PA had reached a low of 1.0315 at this time.) then PA tanked back down to a low of 1.0303 and the new range bar opened at 1.0314 in the process. [b]It was a stressful entry...
Be careful of this, if you are stressed about a particular trade not working out for you then probably you are trading too big for either where you are at or for your account size.
  • #996
  • Mar 29, 2012 9:32pm Mar 29, 2012 9:32pm
Hi Amy

Your honest feedback is always much appreciated.
Im doing a full analysis of this trade over the weekend.
There are some valuable lessons to learn from it.
  • #997
  • Mar 31, 2012 9:07pm Mar 31, 2012 9:07pm
some levels
weekly mid 1.0433
monthly mid 1.0489
quarterly mid 1.0449
weekly lows 1.0307 + 1.0279
monthly lows 1.0228
quarterly lows 1.0093

AU closed the week at 1.0351. The open price tomorrow is now really important.
  • #998
  • Apr 1, 2012 8:51pm Apr 1, 2012 8:51pm
Quoting amyc
I have defined the probability each target has of being hit and I trade those that have a higher than 90% chance. For aud there is a 95% chance of hitting 9277 in April.
Hi Amy, very interesting journal. I really like how you use the higher time frames (weekly, monthly) to guide your overall analysis. I had a question about something you posted in the beginning of your journal. How do you calculate the probability of price hitting these high probability fibonacci zones? Do you use the inbuilt feature in fibonacci trader or do you have your own indicator in mt4?

Also, that article on fibonacci trader discussed using these zones calculated on a daily basis for intraday trading. Are you basically using the same concept on your weekly and monthly charts as well?

Thank you
  • #999
  • Edited 5:40am Apr 2, 2012 5:29am | Edited 5:40am
I just returned from a short 2 day trip to a nice nature place with my family.

I see the AU has gapped up this morning with a weekly open at 1.0437.
Im still currently in my position from 1.0320.
AU has opened above the weekly mid, but not above the monthly or quarterly mid.

the quarterly mid at 1.0449 was the high for the day and has rejected price action.
I would like to see a daily close above the monthly mid at 1.0489 and price holding above there this week.
  • #1,000
  • Apr 2, 2012 6:04am Apr 2, 2012 6:04am
Quoting ianlikesgolf
I just returned from a short 2 day trip to a nice nature place with my family.

I see the AU has gapped up this morning with a weekly open at 1.0437.
Im still currently in my position from 1.0320.
AU has opened above the weekly mid, but not above the monthly or quarterly mid.

the quarterly mid at 1.0449 was the high for the day and has rejected price action.
I would like to see a daily close above the monthly mid at 1.0489 and price holding above there this week.
I have the weekly open at 452 placing it above the quarterley mid.
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