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Lost Souls Enter Here!

  • #21
  • Mar 28, 2012 2:29am Mar 28, 2012 2:29am
Quoting pipmutt
I think maybe that's often the cycle for new traders. Starting off with very little knowledge or understanding of trading but still making money with a simple strategy, it all seems amazingly easy and confidence is high. A few inevitable losses later decide that simple was obviously just a little too simple and that's what caused the losses, imagine what could be achieved with more knowledge and a real strategy! A few dozen convoluted strategies and hundreds of hours of self-eduction about the market later, frustrated, sceptical, lost...
Or, like the karate master recollects: "Before I started practicing karate, a punch was just a punch. When I started, a punch was never again just a punch - everything was very complicated. Now that I have reached my 7th dan, a punch is again just a punch"
  • #22
  • Mar 28, 2012 2:35am Mar 28, 2012 2:35am
Quoting tricello

I would suggest starting from the premise that markets are the result of the actions of millions of participants and it's impossible to predict when and how the "players" are going to make their moves.

So, assuming that you can't predict the direction of the price...you just know that price will move, either up or down. How can you capitalise on that?

Like many have said, trading is simple but not so easy. But, if you forget the idea of trying to predict where price is going and find a way to profit with this in mind, you'll free yourself from the chase of a perfect system to follow.
Definitely. May not work for everyone but that was the light at the end of my tunnel! We can't control the outcome of a trade so what can we control, we wouldn't really want to risk money on something over which we have no control would we?



Quoting micmic

Or, like the karate master recollects: "Before I started practicing karate, a punch was just a punch. When I started, a punch was never again just a punch - everything was very complicated. Now that I have reached my 7th dan, a punch is again just a punch"
lol, like it!
  • #23
  • Mar 28, 2012 4:06am Mar 28, 2012 4:06am
There is some great truth in this but its only half way there. You can guage what the market will do at SR levels by simply observing the context of price action on a bar by bar basis, and by being ready for possible scenarios that will develop. The market is an emotional beast and every candle using a top down approach will give you an indication of the best likely scenarios to expect and then act upon. This takes time and experience because it will play on your emotions. But it is high probability trading compared to any mathematical formula trading indicator led method (which noobs gravitate to because it looks easier hence the high failure rate). Profitable trading is being flexible and reactive/proactive, not sitting back and hiding behind a 'system'.



Quoting CaymanTrader
I know a good exercise for traders in that situation.

Get a fresh demo account.

1. Open a weekly chart and draw important support/resistance levels on it. Nothing else. No indicators, not even MAs.
2. Switch to a Daily with the same lines you draw on the weekly and draw key S/R levels you spot there.
3. Switch to the H4 and do the same.

Then trade those the Weekly, Daily and H4 S/R levels on the H4 or the H1.
Buy at Support; Sell at Resistance.

Just do it for a few weeks, be relaxed, do not think about the virtual profit/loss and don't let any...
  • #24
  • Mar 28, 2012 4:36am Mar 28, 2012 4:36am
.

And.....here come the trading strategies!

.
  • #25
  • Mar 28, 2012 4:47am Mar 28, 2012 4:47am
Quoting Porkpie
Profitable trading is being flexible and reactive/proactive, not sitting back and hiding behind a 'system'.
So you admit that in forex there is no profitable system in the long term?
  • #26
  • Mar 28, 2012 4:50am Mar 28, 2012 4:50am
I also find trading to be a negative sum game....having a system with a 35% win rate is very emotionally draining...those losing streaks are no joke...but eventually I know I make more than most people believe possible...and therein lies the difficulty most guys experience,most can't handle a string of 10-20 losing streaks and will definitely stop trading thinking the system is a loser...the more volatile the results the more robust the system.
wo-yoy! wo-yoy! wo-yoy! wo-yoi! wo-yoy-yoy-yoy!
  • #27
  • Mar 28, 2012 6:17am Mar 28, 2012 6:17am
Quoting jamb0
So you admit that in forex there is no profitable system in the long term?
No not exactly. I find those that use a 'system' and are successful have been trading it a long time and often tell you they have a gut feel about the set-up and won't take all the set-ups. This gut feel is usually down to how they are interpreting what is going on in the chart or the price action. You can only get that with experience, but noobs are too impatient.

With regards 35% win rates, if it works for you great, but for many it won't and for these people they should seek a method that gives them more control over their actions to fulfill their psychology. It's not about what works and what doesn't work, what is right and what is wrong, its about what works for you or not. Its about knowing yourself and going about ways to fulfill your needs by developing a personal style of trading thats also compatible with the logic of the market so that you have an edge and can maintain it. It's not about learning a 'system'.
  • #28
  • Mar 28, 2012 6:48am Mar 28, 2012 6:48am
Quoting Porkpie
No not exactly. I find those that use a 'system' and are successful have been trading it a long time and often tell you they have a gut feel about the set-up and won't take all the set-ups. This gut feel is usually down to how they are interpreting what is going on in the chart or the price action. You can only get that with experience, but noobs are too impatient.

With regards 35% win rates, if it works for you great, but for many it won't and for these people they should seek a method that gives them more control over their actions to...
Mmm... A subjective vision about this market... I've never realize it, maybe you're right, good response.
  • #29
  • Mar 28, 2012 7:18am Mar 28, 2012 7:18am
Quoting Porkpie
No not exactly. I find those that use a 'system' and are successful have been trading it a long time and often tell you they have a gut feel about the set-up and won't take all the set-ups. This gut feel is usually down to how they are interpreting what is going on in the chart or the price action. You can only get that with experience, but noobs are too impatient.

With regards 35% win rates, if it works for you great, but for many it won't and for these people they should seek a method that gives them more control over their actions to...

Well said..
  • #30
  • Last Post: Mar 30, 2012 10:42pm Mar 30, 2012 10:42pm
I agree.

The problem with learning a system is there’s no real skill in it. Just feed money in (hit buy or sell) when the lights flash at you.

Also, when I think of a system, I think of something quite rigid and formulaic, and as such not well suited to dynamic environments over the long term……..emphasis on “over the long term”!

This is contrary to financial markets, which are dynamic and require adaptive responses, or skills, in order to profit over the long term.

Quoting Porkpie
It's not about learning a 'system'.
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