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Lost Souls Enter Here!

  • #1
  • First Post: Mar 27, 2012 9:56am Mar 27, 2012 9:56am
I have been an active fx trader since the fall of 07, unlike allot of folks i had great success right from jump street. Then the markets well you know the rest. And i have been jumping from system to system ever since. Heck i even talked with a guy who has been on here since 04 and isn't profitable. So my question is this are we doomed?? I dont want to give up like so many i know have. I started this thread to maybe exchange ideas for fellow traders from profitable traders to help with other people who have a hard time with it. I think it could be a good thing bringing to two together. but as i know in FF there will be the critics and name Sayer's you folks with be blown out of this thread.

I want nothing more than to have a thread where traders help traders.

Problems ahead, there are your fib guys and your ma guys, there are the indi guys and so on. I have come to the conclusion it is not the system rather the trader him/herself. I hope that this thread can be a meeting place for fellow traders not only exchange ideas, but grow as a team if you will.

E/A nope not here no way i do not believe a computer can trade better than me and don't want to here it.

Systems, God knows i have seen every system and indi there is out there, and yet i have never had the faith in one of them. Now with that being said is it me that i don't have faith in??? The whole psychological aspect ? maybe?

Funny how systems come and go here at FF and yet some people pick it up and make money no prob, and others (me) could not make a nickel. And all systems run the exact same course, from mods to the original system to some schmuck says can it be an EA, and boom another dead thread.

Well that's is it I hope this thread does help folks come to gether and help one another and make somebody's life a little better, if not i will have the folks here pitch it.
  • #2
  • Mar 27, 2012 11:37am Mar 27, 2012 11:37am
the problem you will have right off the bat is that traders who claim to be profitable when in fact are really not.

In my personal view, I believe trading or investing is more of a career than most people make it out to be.

you have many approaches to the way the markets work, many theories, indicators, money management, psychology, etc..... however the markets are really a conglomeration of interests, transactions taking place. Yet many people want to ignore this fact.

By back testing or looking at our charts (which in my opinion...many people actually trade off the charts like that would pose some sort of edge is really baffling to me) As i have posted in a newbie thread, if you are using a chart to trade the take some statistics classes, and you will understand that charts are nothing but representation of a data set. No pattern, no sure A+B=C is ever or will ever exist when reading a chart.....but the value of it is to give you a visual representation of price quoted in bid/ask.

take some quantative finance classes
some ECON classes
some higher level mathematical probability classes
Risk management classes
some statistics classes
read up on technical analysis
also read up on business management

to sum up the market in my view Transactions=direction, variance of transacted prices = volatility, and they all happen in real time therefore we need statistical representations. Sad people take it too far and think the MARKET IS ACTUALLY THE CHART YOU ARE LOOKING AT.
AVT INVENIAM VIAM AVT FACIAM
  • #3
  • Mar 27, 2012 11:37am Mar 27, 2012 11:37am
I agree with you except in the EAs part. Here are my statements:

1.- If you don't have a method, you are gambling instead of trading.
2.- If you have a method, then you can write it and back testing it.
3.- If your method fails in the back testing, it will fail at some point in the future in real trading. So find another method and return to point 2.

Me, personally, I have been losing money since I began trading (3000$ in 2 years for being accurate), and I still looking for a method that works, but no one works in the long term! I also need help. Sorry for my bad english...
  • #4
  • Mar 27, 2012 11:42am Mar 27, 2012 11:42am
I know a good exercise for traders in that situation.

Get a fresh demo account.

1. Open a weekly chart and draw important support/resistance levels on it. Nothing else. No indicators, not even MAs.
2. Switch to a Daily with the same lines you draw on the weekly and draw key S/R levels you spot there.
3. Switch to the H4 and do the same.

Then trade those the Weekly, Daily and H4 S/R levels on the H4 or the H1.
Buy at Support; Sell at Resistance.

Just do it for a few weeks, be relaxed, do not think about the virtual profit/loss and don't let any news or bias influence your trade.
  • #5
  • Mar 27, 2012 12:04pm Mar 27, 2012 12:04pm
Quoting CaymanTrader
I know a good exercise for traders in that situation.

Get a fresh demo account.

1. Open a weekly chart and draw important support/resistance levels on it. Nothing else. No indicators, not even MAs.
2. Switch to a Daily with the same lines you draw on the weekly and draw key S/R levels you spot there.
3. Switch to the H4 and do the same.

Then trade those the Weekly, Daily and H4 S/R levels on the H4 or the H1.
Buy at Support; Sell at Resistance.

Just do it for a few weeks, be relaxed, do not think about the virtual profit/loss and don't let...

This does not work for me my fellow trader! Why? Because when you buy at supports and sell in resistances you are in fact trading against the trend, and in the long term, not only few weeks, the trend breaks many many times the S/R and you lose money...

I hope that works for you, but a lot of traders know what I'm saying, even S/R don't work in forex! I have a theory about this market that I will write soon...
  • #6
  • Mar 27, 2012 1:15pm Mar 27, 2012 1:15pm
The bottom line is that not every person can do well at every possible occupation or hobby. Just because you can sit at home and practice something called "Foreign Exchange Currency Trading" on your PC is absolutely no guarantee that you will ever actually become a profitable trader. For some people it can be, but for others it will never be anything more than a time wasting video game. The trouble only really begins when everyone who tries, imagines that trying equals doing. It's just not so. Reality bites, and some times it bites really hard. How may times must an aspiring boxer get knocked out before he finally understands that he sucks at boxing, that he will never become Golden Gloves, and that he should look for another hobby? It's no different with Forex.
To improve is to change. To perfect, is to change often.
  • #7
  • Mar 27, 2012 1:35pm Mar 27, 2012 1:35pm
Quoting jamb0
This does not work for me my fellow trader! Why? Because when you buy at supports and sell in resistances you are in fact trading against the trend, and in the long term, not only few weeks, the trend breaks many many times the S/R and you lose money...

I hope that works for you, but a lot of traders know what I'm saying, even S/R don't work in forex! I have a theory about this market that I will write soon...
It's not a strategy, it's an exercise for the people blinded by indicators. The virtual profit doesn't even matter.
  • #8
  • Mar 27, 2012 1:51pm Mar 27, 2012 1:51pm
Quoting jamb0
This does not work for me my fellow trader! Why? Because when you buy at supports and sell in resistances you are in fact trading against the trend, and in the long term, not only few weeks, the trend breaks many many times the S/R and you lose money...
You don't have to trade against the trend with S/R. In an uptrend, you can find a break of resistance and then trade a possible retracement to the resistance turned support. Or you can trade directly the breakout.

Of course you have to define additional rules in order to create a profitable system, but trading S/R is much more than trading reversals.
  • #9
  • Mar 27, 2012 3:21pm Mar 27, 2012 3:21pm
Quoting NoBread
some schmuck says can it be an EA, and boom another dead thread.
NoBread, I like your style!

Please continue!
Gentlemen always play by the rules. If they can't, they change the rules.
  • #10
  • Mar 27, 2012 3:24pm Mar 27, 2012 3:24pm
Quoting forexhard
The bottom line is that not every person can do well at every possible occupation or hobby. Just because you can sit at home and practice something called "Foreign Exchange Currency Trading" on your PC is absolutely no guarantee that you will ever actually become a profitable trader. For some people it can be, but for others it will never be anything more than a time wasting video game. The trouble only really begins when everyone who tries, imagines that trying equals doing. It's just not so. Reality bites, and some times it bites...
Very good post.
Gentlemen always play by the rules. If they can't, they change the rules.
  • #11
  • Mar 27, 2012 3:47pm Mar 27, 2012 3:47pm
Learn the elements that actually move the markets (charts dont move the markets, market is creating charts). Learn to gauge the sentiment. Trade with the sentiment and go for the stops.
.
  • #12
  • Mar 27, 2012 5:10pm Mar 27, 2012 5:10pm
Speaking of statistical representations, I've been accumulating expectancy data of methods with various settings, tp's and so on. The settings with the best expectancies, I trade live, lightly so far. When another method gives better expectancy, I switch to it, etc. I've really only just started doing this, but my account is slowly growing.

What do we do with expectancy data? It's a moving average of method performance, which is also a lagging indicator, but maybe it is an improvement. I was thinking since though long term data gives a solid look at the method's performance, it doesn't indicate the short term, the less so the more the data (?). So maybe looking at some sort of combination of long term and short term expectancies.
  • #13
  • Mar 28, 2012 1:00am Mar 28, 2012 1:00am
@ jambo i can tell your new and gambling, i can also tell you have never owned a business. and know what a real gamble is. Like laying out 100 k on a business and watch it go up in flames. I think you guys have missed my point here. I could care less if i make it as a trader, but i do know there are guys out there that still struggle. And by the looks of it i am the only one with the stones to admit it. I wanted nothing more than to have a thread where there is a spot for guys to help one another, nothing more nothing less. And right away i get, problem is blah blah blah blah, he does not really make it. How do you know?? I will give this a few more days i guess and if nothing good comes from it i will close it.
  • #14
  • Mar 28, 2012 1:28am Mar 28, 2012 1:28am
Hello NoBread,

Thank you for opening this thread. It's always good to have a bit of fresh air in this vaccum.
I am surprised that this is post 14. I thought it would end at 5. I don't give it past 20.
Why will the thread end soon? you are not preaching to the choir. Everyone is enjoying this nice forex soup but you are throwing sand in it. The propensity for human being to fool themselves is enormous. To be all bright eyes and bushy tail over some system, indicator, trading psychology, guru or whatever tickles your "I am going to make it " fancy is like being a ghost and not knowing that you are dead.
  • #15
  • Mar 28, 2012 1:43am Mar 28, 2012 1:43am
Its OK to try out every system that exists. However, somewhere along the line you must find that one system, that one strategy that suits your personality. I have found that trading breakouts on a 15 minute chart in the direction of the 4 hour market flow works for me. I commenced trading forex in 2005 and after 2 years of searching, settled on trading breakouts.

I am no good at predicting markets or price action. With breakouts, you react to price action. No need for predictions. Trading is a journey of self discovery. Somewhere out there is that system that suits your personality. Bruce Lee said... I fear not the man who can do 10,000 kicks. I fear the man who practices the same kick 10,000 times. So it is with trading. Find the one that suits your personality and practice, practice, practice.

After trading breakouts since 2007 until now, my trading is not perfect. Every day is a challenge. However, every day in every way, I move a step closer to trading success.
  • #16
  • Mar 28, 2012 1:59am Mar 28, 2012 1:59am
Quoting NoBread
I think you guys have missed my point here. I could care less if i make it as a trader, but i do know there are guys out there that still struggle. And by the looks of it i am the only one with the stones to admit it. I wanted nothing more than to have a thread where there is a spot for guys to help one another, nothing more nothing less.
What kind of help do you mean ? Help about actual ways of trading ? Encouragement and success stories ? Psychological help in order to accept failure and try to overcome it ? It's not clear (to me).
  • #17
  • Mar 28, 2012 2:01am Mar 28, 2012 2:01am
Quoting NoBread
And i have been jumping from system to system ever since

I have come to the conclusion it is not the system rather the trader him/herself.

Systems, God knows i have seen every system and indi there is out there, and yet i have never had the faith in one of them. Now with that being said is it me that i don't have faith in??? The whole psychological aspect ? maybe?
Seems to me like you are gambling. Profitable trading is not about picking the right system/indicator from a catalog until you find the one that makes money.

redlion is right, just looking at your chart doesn't give you any edge. Let me give you an example. We can go to a casino and write down the las 1000 numbers that came out at the roulette table, and we can make a chart with those numbers and you will find many repeating patterns, but you are still not going to make any money. Why? because you have no edge playing roulette. A chart is just a graphic representation of price.

So, maybe you should think about how markets really work and how and why prices move before you try another system/indicator without knowing why it should work.

To make it short, there has to be a reason why your system will work. If you don't know what that reason is then you have no edge and you will lose.
  • #18
  • Mar 28, 2012 2:07am Mar 28, 2012 2:07am
Quoting NoBread

I have been an active fx trader since the fall of 07, unlike allot of folks i had great success right from jump street.

I have come to the conclusion it is not the system rather the trader him/herself.

Systems, God knows i have seen every system and indi there is out there, and yet i have never had the faith in one of them. Now with that being said is it me that i don't have faith in??? The whole psychological aspect ? maybe?
I think maybe that's often the cycle for new traders. Starting off with very little knowledge or understanding of trading but still making money with a simple strategy, it all seems amazingly easy and confidence is high. A few (inevitable) losses later decide that simple was obviously just a little too simple and that's what caused the losses, imagine what could be achieved with more knowledge and a real strategy! A few dozen convoluted strategies and hundreds of hours of self-eduction about the market later, frustrated, sceptical, lost capital and lost confidence, the choices seem limited. Either carry on the search for the seemingly elusive profitable strategy, or give up altogether. A very small percentage discover, either by accident or intent, that trading actually has less to do with trying to predict price direction accurately than they thought!
  • #19
  • Mar 28, 2012 2:22am Mar 28, 2012 2:22am
Quoting micmic

What kind of help do you mean ? Help about actual ways of trading ? Encouragement and success stories ? Psychological help in order to accept failure and try to overcome it ? It's not clear (to me).
Me either, I'm not really sure what the OP is looking for.
  • #20
  • Mar 28, 2012 2:22am Mar 28, 2012 2:22am
I would suggest starting from the premise that markets are the result of the actions of millions of participants and it's impossible to predict when and how the "players" are going to make their moves.

So, assuming that you can't predict the direction of the price...you just know that price will move, either up or down. How can you capitalise on that?

Like many have said, trading is simple but not so easy. But, if you forget the idea of trying to predict where price is going and find a way to profit with this in mind, you'll free yourself from the chase of a perfect system to follow.
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