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  • #21
  • Mar 26, 2012 4:34pm Mar 26, 2012 4:34pm
Quoting lithium1
Actually daily DToch has crossed down in this case, I just lazy to post so many charts. So, Weekly is OB, Daily crossed down, I'm using H1 to find an entry.

By the way, S&P has made a new high, so the wave count was wrong, no trade. Back to drawing board again.
Here was the count for the S&P I posted in another thread here at FF this AM (http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=330801) - we still see higher levels based on this.

http://www.aspentrading.com/uploaded....12sp30min.png

Also posted this too which has played out well thus far:

http://www.aspentrading.com/uploaded...12nok60min.png
  • #22
  • Mar 26, 2012 6:28pm Mar 26, 2012 6:28pm
Here is a good example of using smaller degree waves to fine tune places to take profits and better anticipate corrections. I booked partial profits into the NY close and will certainly look to add back on it on a push towards 5.7000/5.7200

http://www.aspentrading.com/uploaded...12nok15min.png
  • #23
  • Mar 27, 2012 5:47am Mar 27, 2012 5:47am
Quoting Dave Floyd
Here was the count for the S&P I posted in another thread here at FF this AM (http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=330801) - we still see higher levels based on this.

http://www.aspentrading.com/uploaded....12sp30min.png

Also posted this too which has played out well thus far:

http://www.aspentrading.com/uploaded...12nok60min.png
Thanks Dave, your wave count looks awesome! S&P is on the top of a channel. Let me post the chart.
  • #24
  • Edited 6:05am Mar 27, 2012 5:54am | Edited 6:05am
Here is a weekly chart of S&P. With Weekly, Daily, H4, H1 either cross down or at OB area.

I'm looking at M5 chart to find enter a short position at the moment.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EP.jpg Size: 348 KB
  • #25
  • Mar 27, 2012 6:10am Mar 27, 2012 6:10am
Quoting lithium1
Here is a weekly chart of S&P. With Weekly, Daily, H4, H1 either cross down at OB area.

I'm looking at M5 chart to find enter a short position at the moment.

Attachment
I see where you are going with this - however, the dominant trend is certainly higher and that is tough to fight. We too are expecting a pull-back in the S&P's as prices approach the 1426/50 resistance zone - but we are more interested in buying pull-backs or selling rallies in the likes of USD/NOK and AUD/USD - that is the higher probability trade and not only puts you in-line with the dominant trend but also allows you to play the impulse wave (1-3-5) versus the corrective waves (2-4) which offer less fluidity and less range in order to trade within. Look at the last posting we uploaded in the FF thread we manage here today to get a sense of our thoughts:

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=330801

Picking tops and bottoms is compelling (why I do not know, my brain is not wired this way thankfully) but exercise some patience in here and look to establish risk on trades not risk off.

Fact: up until March 6th there was not one pull-back in the S&P's that exceeded 1% for all of 2012 - yet I am sure based on the way some interpret charts; many signals to sell were given - none would have worked out well relative to buying the pull-back. Don't try to outsmart the markets.
  • #26
  • Mar 27, 2012 6:28am Mar 27, 2012 6:28am
Thanks Dave for your comments. You have a nice thread, I'm reading it now to digest what you mean. Thanks!
  • #27
  • Mar 27, 2012 6:40am Mar 27, 2012 6:40am
Quoting lithium1
Thanks Dave for your comments. You have a nice thread, I'm reading it now to digest what you mean. Thanks!
Thanks - what we do is not complicated, it just takes time - gee what a shocker, a little hard work! Read through the thread and you will start to understand the process.

Bark Marek - our Director of client Education does a lot of intro webinars (no cost) - see link in our recent posting or on our site - next one is on Wednesday March 28th
  • #28
  • Mar 27, 2012 8:53am Mar 27, 2012 8:53am
A possible wave 4 bottom on Daily chart. Daily DTosc OS turning up.

LONG 2 positions at 1.04874. SL 1.04706

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSD.jpg Size: 223 KB
  • #29
  • Mar 27, 2012 9:22am Mar 27, 2012 9:22am
Quoting lithium1
A possible wave 4 bottom on Daily chart. Daily DTosc OS turning up.

LONG 2 positions at 1.04874. SL 1.04706

Attachment
Wow, stop-loss is way too tight imo - factor in the smaller degree count (60-min) and this pull-back in AUD/USD as well as the S&P's could dip further and the count would still be valid. What is the technical relevance of 1.0470 in terms of why that is your stop?

http://www.aspentrading.com/uploaded...12aud60min.png

This is how I view the current back-drop and what I would consider technically relevant levels to place stops. As you can see, they are much wider, but that is the way you need to play on these time frames. Remember, adjusting position size to account for stops is how anyone can play wider stops than they are normally accustomed to.
  • #30
  • Mar 27, 2012 9:28am Mar 27, 2012 9:28am
Quoting lithium1
A possible wave 4 bottom on Daily chart. Daily DTosc OS turning up.

LONG 2 positions at 1.04874. SL 1.04706

Attachment
Closed my AUDUSD trade with only 2pips profit. Wave pattern in M5 doesn't looks right. So better get out first.
  • #31
  • Mar 27, 2012 9:30am Mar 27, 2012 9:30am
Quoting Dave Floyd
Wow, stop-loss is way too tight imo - factor in the smaller degree count (60-min) and this pull-back in AUD/USD as well as the S&P's could dip further and the count would still be valid. What is the technical relevance of 1.0470 in terms of why that is your stop?

http://www.aspentrading.com/uploaded...12aud60min.png

This is how I view the current back-drop and what I would consider technically relevant levels to place stops. As you can see, they are much wider, but that is the way you need to play on...
Thanks for your comments Dave. How do you count the 5 subwave of your circled i ?
  • #32
  • Mar 27, 2012 9:58am Mar 27, 2012 9:58am
[quote=Dave Floyd;5514074]Here was the count for the S&P I posted in another thread here at FF this AM (http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=330801) - we still see higher levels based on this.

http://www.aspentrading.com/uploaded....12sp30min.png

Dave, you think sp500 did reach it's climax already, i am not sure as it did not reach the fib levels
  • #33
  • Mar 27, 2012 10:10am Mar 27, 2012 10:10am
LONG 2 positions of AUDUSD at 1.04908, SL 1.04740, if reach 1.05027 take profit 1 position.
  • #34
  • Mar 27, 2012 10:11am Mar 27, 2012 10:11am
[quote=torkay77;5516659]
Quoting Dave Floyd
Here was the count for the S&P I posted in another thread here at FF this AM (http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=330801) - we still see higher levels based on this.

http://www.aspentrading.com/uploaded....12sp30min.png

Dave, you think sp500 did reach it's climax already, i am not sure as it did not reach the fib levels
It's possible - the lower boundary of resistance has not bee met as you noted - however, one could say that we have moved higher in 5-waves off the Wave (iv) low thus possibly completing Wave v of larger degree 3. At this point knowing if this is the completion or there is still a bit more to go is not the most important aspect.

If you are long say the S&P's or some risk related FX pair it is time to start booking profits and/or tightening stops. If you simply do this, don't agonize over isolating the exact top at this point - let the market unfold and interpret it as it does. That is what is good about EW - you can use price action/wave structure and Fib levels to help determine where prices are in terms of the whole move and thus adjust stops and profit levels accordingly.

Since I have not interest in trying to short up in here I am not too concerned about where the exact top is - profits have been booked accordingly so I am playing with house money now and have the luxury of adding to positions on the pull-back should I choose. Trying to make it as simple and painless as possible.
  • #35
  • Mar 27, 2012 1:05pm Mar 27, 2012 1:05pm
thanks for comment....it seem it might take out wave 3 high
  • #36
  • Mar 27, 2012 4:16pm Mar 27, 2012 4:16pm
Quoting lithium1
LONG 2 positions of AUDUSD at 1.04908, SL 1.04740, if reach 1.05027 take profit 1 position.
-16pips x2 = -32pips
  • #37
  • Mar 27, 2012 4:20pm Mar 27, 2012 4:20pm
Quoting lithium1
Thanks for your comments Dave. How do you count the 5 subwave of your circled i ?
Dave, it's heading towards your AUDUSD target prices.

The reason I didn't count your circled i as 1 complete wave because I can't get a 5 subwave out of it.
  • #38
  • Mar 28, 2012 12:37am Mar 28, 2012 12:37am
Long 2 position of audusd at 1.04326. Sl 1.04192. Let's see how is my luck this time
  • #39
  • Mar 28, 2012 4:00am Mar 28, 2012 4:00am
Quoting lithium1
Long 2 position of audusd at 1.04326. Sl 1.04192. Let's see how is my luck this time
-13 x 2 = -26pips
  • #40
  • Mar 28, 2012 4:02am Mar 28, 2012 4:02am
Quoting Dave Floyd
Wow, stop-loss is way too tight imo - factor in the smaller degree count (60-min) and this pull-back in AUD/USD as well as the S&P's could dip further and the count would still be valid. What is the technical relevance of 1.0470 in terms of why that is your stop?

http://www.aspentrading.com/uploaded...12aud60min.png

This is how I view the current back-drop and what I would consider technically relevant levels to place stops. As you can see, they are much wider, but that is the way you need to play on...
Dave, it looks like a 5 wave down now. Any change on the wave count?
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