Technical Analysis Fallacy | Page 1623 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

The Ultimate Fallacy in Technical Analysis 99 replies

"Technical Analysis Fallacy" thread people, I need your help 54 replies

Technical Analysis Fallacy Redux 23 replies

Statistical analysis fallacy 33 replies

Attachments: Technical Analysis Fallacy
Exit Attachments

Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #32,441
  • Mar 27, 2012 3:02am Mar 27, 2012 3:02am
Euro wants to go up cos of QE3
Euro wants to do down cos they want to increase the fund
Probability of going higher is looking high IMO.

There was one breakout 13280-13300 yesterday not sure which breakout we are talking about? may be weekly trend line
  • #32,442
  • Mar 27, 2012 3:13am Mar 27, 2012 3:13am
don't understand the maths but article looks interesting:


http://dailycapitalist.com/2012/03/2...is-helicopter/
  • #32,443
  • Mar 27, 2012 4:18am Mar 27, 2012 4:18am
Quoting fti
so near 1.6 cable.
will we kiss it. maybe.
Gonna burp soon ...
They really know how to test my patience, spend 10 minutes for the final 2 pips, still trying to scare me out without the final.

ai ya, give them 10 pips to buy medicine. I 90 out.
  • #32,444
  • Mar 27, 2012 4:26am Mar 27, 2012 4:26am
ai ya missed 2 pips.
they shy.
  • #32,445
  • Edited 4:41am Mar 27, 2012 4:31am | Edited 4:41am
Quoting simpleman
don't understand the maths but article looks interesting:


http://dailycapitalist.com/2012/03/2...is-helicopter/
is easy explain la.
the bubble was caused by erroneous valuation of assets.
nothing to do with policies. Greedy market forces overshooting assisted by erroenous valuation.
Chances is too volatile varables in valuation formuales.
is same as over pricing historical volatilities in fair pricing models.
Sub prime crumbled, while the richer assets is stood up by the big rich. They have resources to hold time. Where do you think all the luquidity the authorities pumped into the market went to?
The banks took the pricing and lent on over valuations. So drained the productivity out of the value of the money. Problem is this is not reversable in short tenures. The major problem is that nothing had been done to arrest the core of the problem so will resurface, bigger monster if not arrested.


regards
  • #32,446
  • Mar 27, 2012 4:40am Mar 27, 2012 4:40am
Dear Chief and Friends,

Below is a trade that I attempted on a demo account yesterday. I would be very grateful if you are willing to give your comments/advice.

Bascially, I managed to secure some $$ at rescue lvl 1 and 2, but not enuf to BE. Further, my other rescue troops are trapped in the chart shown below.

Now the up move seems very strong and my leverage exposure is ~10%. paperloss ~1%.

Tyipcally, I will attempt the following 2 options:

(1) Deploy very strong rescue to try get out alive.

(2) Deploy more conservative skew rescue (but will need larger retracement).

Option (2) seems unlikely atm. However, if option (1) is invoked and troops are trapped, the exposure will increase dramatically to my detriment.

I am asking for advice because this is one of those battles that I feel may be better for me to bite the bullet to fight another day. However, if a better alternative is available, I am willing to attempt.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu.JPG Size: 81 KB


Regards
N
  • #32,447
  • Mar 27, 2012 4:59am Mar 27, 2012 4:59am
Quoting fti
is easy explain la.
the bubble was caused by erroneous valuation of assets.
nothing to do with policies. Greedy market forces overshooting assisted by erroenous valuation.
Chances is too volatile varables in valuation formuales.
is same as over pricing historical volatilities in fair pricing models.
Sub prime crumbled, while the richer assets is stood up by the big rich. They have resources to hold time. Where do you think all the luquidity the authorities pumped into the market went to?
The banks took the pricing and lent on over valuations....
Thanks chief for the explanation, you are right we may will see the problem staying with us for years to come, may be they want to inflate the problem away but this will generate anther types of problem "hyperinflation".

Regards
  • #32,448
  • Mar 27, 2012 5:02am Mar 27, 2012 5:02am
Quoting N_Trader
Dear Chief and Friends,

Below is a trade that I attempted on a demo account yesterday. I would be very grateful if you are willing to give your comments/advice.

Bascially, I managed to secure some $$ at rescue lvl 1 and 2, but not enuf to BE. Further, my other rescue troops are trapped in the chart shown below.

Now the up move seems very strong and my leverage exposure is ~10%. paperloss ~1%.

Tyipcally, I will attempt the following 2 options:

(1) Deploy very strong rescue to try get out alive.

(2) Deploy more conservative...
Hi N,
Chief and other will explain it better. When I get into this situation I look at the hourly chart and if I am against the trend i just take a hit. In your case you are against the hourly and 4 hourly trend and the flow. IMHO
  • #32,449
  • Mar 27, 2012 5:07am Mar 27, 2012 5:07am
Hi Fti and others here.I really respect your pro touch on trading and i seems to love your style and naked life in trading.May i join others to thank you so much for this thread.Knowing that i am a lot late and will take me alot time to catch up with you all.Currently i am up to the 300 pages but still a little confused concerning rescue.At a point i saw it as opening a position as againt an initial position opened earlier.For example if i early opened a long position on EUR/USD but only to have the market going against me,then i will go short bcoz the market is always right.
On the other hand i saw it to mean that i still open position in with my initial direction of the daily trend i.e.long on EUR/USD even when the market has gone some pips against me but has shown a sign to conitnue the way of the daily trend.
Which of these two scenerios do you call rescue operation.

Thanks.
Adeshina.
  • #32,450
  • Mar 27, 2012 5:14am Mar 27, 2012 5:14am
Quoting N_Trader
Dear Chief and Friends,

Below is a trade that I attempted on a demo account yesterday. I would be very grateful if you are willing to give your comments/advice.

Bascially, I managed to secure some $$ at rescue lvl 1 and 2, but not enuf to BE. Further, my other rescue troops are trapped in the chart shown below.

Now the up move seems very strong and my leverage exposure is ~10%. paperloss ~1%.

Tyipcally, I will attempt the following 2 options:

(1) Deploy very strong rescue to try get out alive.

(2) Deploy more conservative...
depends on your terrain read.
no one can give you any advice.
you need make your own reads from your own level of understanding.


regards
  • #32,451
  • Mar 27, 2012 5:17am Mar 27, 2012 5:17am
Quoting Ifebaba94
Hi Fti and others here.I really respect your pro touch on trading and i seems to love your style and naked life in trading.May i join others to thank you so much for this thread.Knowing that i am a lot late and will take me alot time to catch up with you all.Currently i am up to the 300 pages but still a little confused concerning rescue.At a point i saw it as opening a position as againt an initial position opened earlier.For example if i early opened a long position on EUR/USD but only to have the market going against me,then i will go short bcoz...
hi welcome.
rescue is just part of MO.
You must learn how read market terrain.
how recognise certain possibilities.
how strategies effective "save the book" activities.
and you cannot do any of these when ego of being right is blocking the door of thoughts.
its difficult bake a cake if only skills is owing an oven. The oven is just a tool, need develop skills and wala, you have it. Then it becomes a secret recipe.

regards
  • #32,452
  • Mar 27, 2012 5:19am Mar 27, 2012 5:19am
Quoting simpleman
Hi N,
Chief and other will explain it better. When I get into this situation I look at the hourly chart and if I am against the trend i just take a hit. In your case you are against the hourly and 4 hourly trend and the flow. IMHO
Hi Simpleman,

Thanks I am indeed against the flow. Rescue is still possible imo, but will have to move to D1 charts.

Thanks again for giving your inputs.

Regards
  • #32,453
  • Mar 27, 2012 5:22am Mar 27, 2012 5:22am
Quoting fti
depends on your terrain read.
no one can give you any advice.
you need make your own reads from your own level of understanding.


regards
Thanks Chief

I understand where you are coming from. The terrain is drastically against me IMHO... but I know I am in charge (i.e. the commander and general).

Kind Regards
N
  • #32,454
  • Mar 27, 2012 5:22am Mar 27, 2012 5:22am
Quoting N_Trader
Hi Simpleman,

Thanks I am indeed against the flow. Rescue is still possible imo, but will have to move to D1 charts.

Thanks again for giving your inputs.

Regards
What you done does not determine outcome.
you need see how much heat book can take. or if it can, or what the risk of rescuing will do for you. And what the terrain is now.
Try stay away from death battles. nIf you decide to, then do or die. expect the unexpected.



regards
  • #32,455
  • Mar 27, 2012 5:25am Mar 27, 2012 5:25am
ok 1 more try show me the 000 behind that 6.
or i leave you sit in the park, alone.

if fact i took all profits already.

regards

euro has chance show the 00 behind the 5.
but seems the motivation is not there yet.
never know whats up the sleeves of the ESM.

regards
  • #32,456
  • Mar 27, 2012 5:28am Mar 27, 2012 5:28am
Quoting fti
What you done does not determine outcome.
you need see how much heat book can take. or if it can, or what the risk of rescuing will do for you. And what the terrain is now.
Try stay away from death battles. nIf you decide to, then do or die. expect the unexpected.

regards
Yes Chief. Roger that.

Death battles are really not my forte ... I've been there a couple of times before thou...

Still, I planned to give this a shot. I have some kinda a plan now. but it's up to the market to give me a window to escape. I will update the outcome of this battle.

Thank again for your kind advice chief. much appreciated

regards
N
  • #32,457
  • Mar 27, 2012 5:48am Mar 27, 2012 5:48am
Quoting fti
hi welcome.
rescue is just part of MO.
You must learn how read market terrain.
how recognise certain possibilities.
how strategies effective "save the book" activities.
and you cannot do any of these when ego of being right is blocking the door of thoughts.
its difficult bake a cake if only skills is owing an oven. The oven is just a tool, need develop skills and wala, you have it. Then it becomes a secret recipe.

regards
Thank you for the prompt reply.Yes i know that rescue is part of the MO.It is a must tool/skill if a battle must be won and to reduce casualties in the battlefield.But i really need to understand the use.I am more than willing to learn and that is why i am here.As regards ego we all need it but not on the battle field(market).Ego kills an egostic General.I shall battle my inner enemy(ego)to attain success in this war.

Sincerely,
Adeshina.
  • #32,458
  • Mar 27, 2012 5:52am Mar 27, 2012 5:52am
Quoting N_Trader
Dear Chief and Friends,

Below is a trade that I attempted on a demo account yesterday. I would be very grateful if you are willing to give your comments/advice.


N
Hi N_Trader, as Fti mentioned, only your market read / risk appetite can tell you what to do.

However... from your chart it looks to me that your rescue attempts were probably too close together? Is not always possible, but in this cases if i feel that the rescue attempt was early, I try to get that level out with as little damage as possible and re-attempt the rescue at a better level (rescue 2) but using the same troops, not reaching a subsequent level in such proximity. Doing this, you risk sabbotaging your own rescue attempt... but if it's a true consolidation, you'll probably get another opportunity to try. Hope it helps.

Regards
  • #32,459
  • Mar 27, 2012 5:59am Mar 27, 2012 5:59am
Quoting N_Trader
Dear Chief and Friends,

Below is a trade that I attempted on a demo account yesterday. I would be very grateful if you are willing to give your comments/advice.

Bascially, I managed to secure some $$ at rescue lvl 1 and 2, but not enuf to BE. Further, my other rescue troops are trapped in the chart shown below.

Now the up move seems very strong and my leverage exposure is ~10%. paperloss ~1%.

Tyipcally, I will attempt the following 2 options:

(1) Deploy very strong rescue to try get out alive.

(2) Deploy more conservative...
Your are against strong momentum and whats
only helping you is options defneses (3400-3425). If the sentiment remained as it is than it wontake long before thos defenses gave up and you will be lookng at a print of 3430 soon.

Anyway provided you with what isee you are the commander now.
.
  • #32,460
  • Mar 27, 2012 6:08am Mar 27, 2012 6:08am
Quoting tricello
Hi N_Trader, as Fti mentioned, only your market read / risk appetite can tell you what to do.

However... from your chart it looks to me that your rescue attempts were probably too close together? Is not always possible, but in this cases if i feel that the rescue attempt was early, I try to get that level out with as little damage as possible and re-attempt the rescue at a better level (rescue 2) but using the same troops, not reaching a subsequent level in such proximity. Doing this, you risk sabbotaging your own rescue attempt... but if it's...
Hi Tricello,
Thanks for giving your inputs. Originally, rescue 2 was meant only to gain some small $ to help reduce exposure. Unfortunately, the market did not give me that opportunity. I could have and mayb should have taken it out with small damage as you have suggested. Still in training and looking to refine my strategies everyday.

Let's see what the market brings today...

Regards
N
7 traders viewing now