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  • #281
  • Mar 26, 2012 3:07am Mar 26, 2012 3:07am
In any case, it's not very surprising that most threads degenerate the way the op describes. It happens mostly because people are very VERY gullible. I won't be naming names in order not to cause unnecessary havoc, but I will just say this: I have seen posters here, who nearly a year ago have claimed some amazing returns. Now, as I said, in a previous post, I have an innate faith in humanity. When I see such a claim, I don't initially think "here's a crook". I think "wow, this is really amazing IF it is true".

So, you grab a compounding calculator and find out that this person, after a year or so, should have banked more than 5 million if he had HALF the return he had claimed and had started with a mere 5000. And then you discover that that person STILL teaches for a meager 100 per hour. And not only that, he is also spending a lot of time in promoting his teaching. WTF ??? Shouldn't that person be running naked among several supermodels in some tropical beach ? Shouldn't he be spending his time in luxury cruises ? Shouldn't he be -at least- teaching some of his friends for FREE, if he so enjoys teaching ? At the very worst case, shouldn't he be requiring a donation to a well-known charity in order to teach, instead of pocketing the money himself ?

But ok, these persons do exist. This is a fact of life. But what gives me real pain is when I see honest, EXPERIENCED, well-meaning traders here in FF who actually BELIEVE their claims and even PROMOTE those scammers. I guess hope never dies...
  • #282
  • Mar 26, 2012 8:11am Mar 26, 2012 8:11am
[quote=micmic;5510891]In any case, it's not very surprising that most threads degenerate the way the op describes. It happens mostly because people are very VERY gullible. I won't be naming names in order not to cause unnecessary havoc, but I will just say this: I have seen posters here, who nearly a year ago have claimed some amazing returns. Now, as I said, in a previous post, I have an innate faith in humanity. When I see such a claim, I don't initially think "here's a crook". I think "wow, this is really amazing IF it is true".

So, you grab a compounding calculator and find out that this person, after a year or so, should have banked more than 5 million if he had HALF the return he had claimed and had started with a mere 5000. And then you discover that that person STILL teaches for a meager 100 per hour. And not only that, he is also spending a lot of time in promoting his teaching. WTF ??? Shouldn't that person be running naked among several supermodels in some tropical beach ? Shouldn't he be spending his time in luxury cruises ? Shouldn't he be -at least- teaching some of his friends for FREE, if he so enjoys teaching ? At the very worst case, shouldn't he be requiring a donation to a well-known charity in order to teach, instead of pocketing the money himself ?

i prety much agree with you,

the thing about this no stoploss systems is somthing i have infact tested for 18 months.the entry details are not relevent and im still trying to break the maths,which can only come from taking exits on loosing trades .

the striking thing about this test is,that my trial executed aprox 5 trades a day,some of those trades created 10 more entries,so you can see that its based on thousands of trades.no stop loss is used .the longest period that my system showed huge gains was 9 months,the remarkable thing is that at some point month 11,my drawdown was almost exactly my account balance - the spread,this repeats itself constantly,so what im trying to say is if you can apply some losses in the correct place you adjust the maths in your favour,seems easy but quite the contrary ,every trade you close adjusts the whole outcome and hence you can not no if that is positive or negative,so if the ea had some logic of when to trade and when not to trade you infact could make huge gains from the ranges.

traders using ea,s which would suggest 100 % mechanical,the logic of what ea to apply at any given time is descesionary part.a very small part but the most inportent part.

anyway im probably not explaining myself well so well move on from the topic.

regards
me
  • #283
  • Mar 26, 2012 9:34am Mar 26, 2012 9:34am
Quoting micmic
Also, I can't think of any valid reason that our successful trader and teacher would ask for money in order to provide help.
One possible reason is diversification of income. It seems that many folk here believe that profitable traders are all mutli-millionaires who make a fixed amount per week, without any risk. In many cases, nothing is further from the truth. Trading offers the promise of exponential gains, but the income can be erratic; some of the best traders occasionally experience unprofitable weeks, even months. Having a second income, one that is more consistent but less spectacular, can alleviate this problem.

I’m VERY aware that there are a great many snake oil vendors who sell signals, systems, education, and the like; but among the minority there are genuine mentors who offer value for money — that’s if you believe that there’s value in quality information and personal guidance that can help shorten your learning curve, and help you build the confidence needed to become profitable yourself. All with the proviso that you have the necessary aptitude, dedication, patience, nerve, discipline, stamina and all of the other personal qualities necessary to implement the knowledge that they impart.
  • #284
  • Mar 26, 2012 10:02am Mar 26, 2012 10:02am
Quoting mister me
with respect i just dont believe that a 100 % mechanical system exists,there has to be a variant of descresion,
A lot of my own trading is discretionary — or at least too visually abstract for me to nail down into a concise mathematical formula — but that doesn't automatically mean that there aren't profitable quant traders, rule-based trading algorithms, or EAs. It just means that there are folk out there who are smarter than I am.

Unless a person has unlimited knowledge, then it's impossible for that person to categorically disprove anything. Very simply, we don't know what we don't know.
  • #285
  • Mar 26, 2012 10:02am Mar 26, 2012 10:02am
Quoting hanover
One possible reason is diversification of income. It seems that many folk here believe that profitable traders are all mutli-millionaires who make a fixed amount per week, without any risk. In many cases, nothing is further from the truth. Trading offers the promise of exponential gains, but the income can be erratic; some of the best traders occasionally experience unprofitable weeks, even months. Having a second income, one that is more consistent but less spectacular, can alleviate this problem.
I could theoretically accept that, IF those traders would ADMIT that the teaching fees are an important part of their income. But when we have traders who say they make 10% EVERY month (or even every week) and then they ask for 100/hour... sorry, they are scammers. Also, very many "gurus" have made it clear that they are now living "the big life" and yet they still charge for lessons. I wouldn't have a problem with an honest teacher who would admit he can only make so much from forex and he needs to teach in order to supplement his income. But then, such a teacher wouldn't offer the dream of the big life and so he wouldn't be very successful, would he ?
  • #286
  • Mar 26, 2012 10:18am Mar 26, 2012 10:18am
The difficulty in this is separating the wheat from the chaff.

There are plenty of books out there written by highly successful traders, so these are a bargain when it comes to gaining knowledge from people who have actually made it in this business. When it comes to an unknown quantity on a forum, the value proposition decreases exponentially.

The definition of success on the forum is too varied as well.

Would I ever want to have the kind of success that entails trading a micro account forever so I can survive 400 pip draw downs? That's not success by any measure of the word. Yet there are people who do exactly this for years on end, and have thousand page threads about it.

Sure, if someone is a pensioner looking for a hobby, this is great, but it has nothing to do with actually running a trading business.

At the bottom of the heap are the indicator trading systems in the trading systems thread. Anyone can slap a couple of indicators on a chart and have a "high win ratio" with no stop loss. This is the lowest form of mentoring on this website because people learn absolutely zero about trading their charts chasing one crappy system after the next.

Here's Fudo's SuperXtremeMoneyMachine 100% profitable repainting indicator based system. (I built it in 5 minutes). If the poor folks trading that other junk were using this, they'd be taking profit at 110.43 on EUR/JPY instead of being in "recovery" mode. rofl

What nonsense.


Quoting hanover
One possible reason is diversification of income. It seems that many folk here believe that profitable traders are all mutli-millionaires who make a fixed amount per week, without any risk. In many cases, nothing is further from the truth. Trading offers the promise of exponential gains, but the income can be erratic; some of the best traders occasionally experience unprofitable weeks, even months. Having a second income, one that is more consistent but less spectacular, can alleviate this problem.

I’m VERY aware that there are a great many...
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  • #287
  • Edited 10:50am Mar 26, 2012 10:39am | Edited 10:50am
Quoting hanover
A lot of my own trading is discretionary — or at least too visually abstract for me to nail down into a concise mathematical formula — but that doesn't automatically mean that there aren't profitable quant traders, rule-based trading algorithms, or EAs. It just means that there are folk out there who are smarter than I am.

Unless a person has unlimited knowledge, then it's impossible for that person to categorically disprove anything. Very simply, we don't know what we don't know.
i completly agree with you,yes the quants have done so.

i havnt put so much time into that particular area of trading unless i believed theres away of tweaking the maths,ill continue to try.im very opened minded and not closed to new ideas.we know the high frequency traders with there algos use the speed of information to enter multple trades .but thats another world.

my posts are refering to no stop loss systems,

after my own trials i can atleast see what needs to be achieved ,but have not done so yet,so that leaves me with having to employ i element of descresion into my methods.which is working well,but is not mechanical.and when my mind wonders its costly

regards
me
  • #288
  • Edited 11:39am Mar 26, 2012 11:18am | Edited 11:39am
Quoting mmaker
One follower is so convinced of the no stop loss rule that it is declared in his signature:
Woohoo!

My signature just means 'go long on common sense' without a stop loss (not literal) ie. Let your common sense have no stop loss. Use your common sense in an unlimited fashion

I'm not so convinced of the no stop loss rule, I am down -186 pips on the EU as as result of my greed, they say we learn the hard way, happy trading guys!
Tracking the Specialists.
  • #289
  • Mar 26, 2012 11:48am Mar 26, 2012 11:48am
Quoting AlienFrog
How am I doing so far?
Great! You just forgot to comment on the name of the site: perfectstormtradingstrategy

This is exactly the kind of site I would build after 40 years of successful trading
  • #290
  • Mar 26, 2012 11:58am Mar 26, 2012 11:58am
Quoting Fudomyo
There are plenty of books out there written by highly successful traders, so these are a bargain when it comes to gaining knowledge from people who have actually made it in this business. When it comes to an unknown quantity on a forum, the value proposition decreases exponentially.
Fudo,

IMO there's a world of difference between books and (genuine) mentorship. Even if the book is written by a successful discretionary trader, the novice reader will invariably find himself facing situations that are either not explicitly covered by the material in the book, or those that require him to weigh up different elements explained in the book, in order to reach a trading decision.

Trading is as much about gaining confidence and experience, as it is about knowing that you should buy whenever a green line crosses a red one. You can't ask a book nuanced questions. And a book can't reassure you that you're still making good decisions, after a series of losses. But a trader who's been successful for many years is in the perfect position to offer such guidance. Somebody who knows exactly how to put the pieces of the puzzle together. Somebody who can teach (exactly as you say) how to run a trading business.

I'm not talking about buying from snake-oil salesmen who sell untested rubbish. I'm talking about gaining knowledge and confidence by working with a trader who's already been successful himself for many years. If I'd known such a person when I first started out, it could have reduced my learning curve by maybe 2-3 years, and saved me a 4-figure sum that I squandered on worthless systems. To me personally, that would have been invaluable.

Of course I'm aware that the vast majority of posts on forums like these amount to the blind leading the blind. Every time I see a thread proffering another martingale variant, or a system that averages down indiscriminately to recover recent losses, or otherwise lacks basic risk management, it makes me cringe. It's no surprise to me that the vast majority of aspiring traders (as Dopey puts it) fail to outlast the learning curve. For whatever reason, they believe that they can somehow shortcut, circumnavigate or otherwise ignore realities that have been proven to be true many times over by the most intelligent and experienced minds in the business.

David
  • #291
  • Mar 26, 2012 12:04pm Mar 26, 2012 12:04pm
Quoting billbss
All long threads fit the model of the first post.

If a system works and is clearly presented there is nothing left to post about.

Why would there be hundreds of posts saying "I understand the rules and it works"?

Long winded threads mean the rules are vague, are continually changing or the method does not work and is being constantly adjusted.


The best methods on this forum may not have over 8 or 10 posts.

This is the best post in this entire thread.
  • #292
  • Mar 26, 2012 1:25pm Mar 26, 2012 1:25pm
Quoting hanover


All with the proviso that you have the necessary aptitude, dedication, patience, nerve, discipline, stamina and all of the other personal qualities necessary to implement the knowledge that they impart.
Exactly, which is what makes me question all these mass education offerings. If the author/vendor has the experience he claims to have then he should already know that the majority of his following masses will be totally unsuitable and still lose overall despite his help.

I can't see any experienced trader wasting his time mentoring a lost cause, it would be exasperating, fruitless, and ultimately they'll blame him for their own shortcomings. Potential mentees would be carefully evaluated to make sure they meet the mentors criteria before being accepted as students, I can't see it would be an open door for anyone who pays a few bucks.
  • #293
  • Edited 3:40pm Mar 26, 2012 1:27pm | Edited 3:40pm
Hi David,

I agree that books can't give the same guidance as hands on mentoring, but it's also very difficult to properly vet people who offer services on the internet. I think there are ways to go about it and ways not to.

I met two professional traders at different points in my process, and both of them added a lot to my business. But it was a combination of personal work and finding the right person at the right time.

It still took 3 years of 16 hour days for me to really nail it. So, my process may have been sped up, but I doubt it shaved years off. Each aspect has it's necessity and benefits. The problem is, someone starting out doesn't know what to look for in a mentor, so first they need to get enough knowledge under their belt to make an informed choice.

I understand completely about the cringe factor concerning some of the stuff that goes on around here. I've pretty much had it with the site at this point. I've met some good people here (yourself included) but honestly, it adds nothing to my process or bottom line and the repetitious nature of most of the dialog is mind numbing. (why people don't use the search function before posting yet another $1000 to $1,000,000 thread is beyond me)

My outlook is this. Unless something changes dramatically with the roadmap for the new regulations, we have possibly another 18 months before Retail Forex as we know it is finished. Many of the banks are unwinding their proprietary trading operations which is going to affect liquidity for OTC. With the new laws regarding capitalization requirements, they simply aren't going to be able to participate in the Intrabank market to the same extent.

Besides that, I think were going to see more protections put in place against currency speculation. (Soros was talking about this at Davos)

So I've decided to make the best use of my time to just make as much money as possible before the change kicks in and a lot less time posting.

It's been fun.

Fudo


Quoting hanover
Fudo,

IMO there's a world of difference between books and (genuine) mentorship. Even if the book is written by a successful discretionary trader, the novice reader will invariably find himself facing situations that are either not explicitly covered by the material in the book, or those that require him to weigh up different elements explained in the book, in order to reach a trading decision.

Trading is as much about gaining confidence and experience, as it is about knowing that you should buy whenever a green line crosses a red one. You...
  • #294
  • Mar 26, 2012 1:33pm Mar 26, 2012 1:33pm
Quoting billbss

Discretion means guessing. If you can guess your way to profits, don't bother with a system.

Just open up a chart and start guessing.
Can't say I agree that discretion amounts to the same thing as guessing!

Discretion allows for flexibility, that can be a good thing can't it?
  • #295
  • Mar 26, 2012 1:39pm Mar 26, 2012 1:39pm
Quoting Fudomyo

My outlook is this. Unless something changes dramatically with the roadmap for the new regulations, we have possibly another 18 months before Retail Forex as we know it is finished.
Plenty of other markets to trade, a chart's a chart!
  • #296
  • Mar 26, 2012 1:43pm Mar 26, 2012 1:43pm
Quoting pipmutt
Plenty of other markets to trade, a chart's a chart!
Fud's post is sobering. A chart may be a chart but all markets are not created equal, and all the details matter.

Better get a monk on.
  • #297
  • Mar 26, 2012 1:52pm Mar 26, 2012 1:52pm
Quoting triphop

Fud's post is sobering. A chart may be a chart but all markets are not created equal, and all the details matter.

Better get a monk on.
There's always banks if you don't mind no leverage, 3c spreads, and 2-day settlement.....bit of a bitch for scalpers though!

I can't see it being the end for retail forex, there's too much money in it for marketmakers. Tax I think will be the first move, governments like to cash in and there's no better vote getter than taxing what are seen as rich speculators......
  • #298
  • Mar 26, 2012 1:57pm Mar 26, 2012 1:57pm
Quoting pipmutt
I can't see it being the end for retail forex, there's too much money in it for marketmakers. Tax I think will be the first move, governments like to cash in......
I agree. Most retail traders get results that are similar to gambling, and there is no way in freezing hell that ANY government in the world will restrict gambling any time soon.
  • #299
  • Mar 26, 2012 2:04pm Mar 26, 2012 2:04pm
Quoting micmic

I agree. Most retail traders get results that are similar to gambling, and there is no way in freezing hell that ANY government in the world will restrict gambling any time soon.
From memory the UK tried it a few years back and did a 180 when companies went offshore, offering all sorts of tax concessions to get them and their revenue back!
  • #300
  • Mar 26, 2012 2:17pm Mar 26, 2012 2:17pm
Quoting pipmutt
Can't say I agree that discretion amounts to the same thing as guessing!

Discretion allows for flexibility, that can be a good thing can't it?
exactly,

im still have not seen a method or system that does not have a certain descresionary element,even consistantly profitable EA s are only so because the user determines through descresion when to run it.
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