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The life of a trading system on Forex Factory

  • #261
  • Mar 25, 2012 11:50am Mar 25, 2012 11:50am
Quoting mister me
custos,

i take my hat of to you if you have devised a 100 % mechanical system,you dont need to trade it,just sell it to one of the financial institutions for 10 million !
No need to take your hat off to me. Just requires a lot of research.

You are a bit short-sighted I must say. Why should I sell a system that produces consistent profits for me?
  • #262
  • Mar 25, 2012 11:56am Mar 25, 2012 11:56am
custos,

with respect i just dont believe that a 100 % mechanical system exists,there has to be a variant of descresion,
  • #263
  • Mar 25, 2012 11:59am Mar 25, 2012 11:59am
Quoting mister me
custos,

with respect i just dont believe that a 100 % mechanical system exists,there has to be a variant of descresion,
that's the difference, you believe and I know.
  • #264
  • Mar 25, 2012 12:03pm Mar 25, 2012 12:03pm
Quoting Custos
that's the difference, you believe and I know.
yes i do know that your 100% mechanical system works but only because you apply it at the correct moment,so i would sugest it has an element of descresion within it,
  • #265
  • Mar 25, 2012 12:06pm Mar 25, 2012 12:06pm
Quoting mister me
yes i do know that your 100% mechanical system works but only because you apply it at the correct moment,so i would sugest it has an element of descresion within it,
that is correct of course (that I only enter at the correct moment). But I would not call that discretion. Discretion = rules that you are not aware of. And since I am aware of all my rules, I have 0% discretion and 100% rules.
  • #266
  • Mar 25, 2012 12:07pm Mar 25, 2012 12:07pm
I have great belief in humans, despite all the terrible crimes our species has committed. I think that our inner nature is kind and that our evolutionary history has made us the most compassionate among animals. So, I also believe that there MUST be a few successful traders who will want to help others succeed. And I'm not talking about traders who have recently made 10,000 or 20,000. I'm talking about traders who have made at least a million from forex, and they are trading full time.

Now, if these traders decide to help others, they will probably make sure that their system is discretionary, at least to a minimum degree. Because if it is too rigid, too automated, then someone could easily make an EA out of it. And then that EA, if consistently successful and free, would spread like wild fire. And, presumably, it would soon stop working. Well, maybe not, but I don't think a successful trader would take such a risk.

Also, I can't think of any valid reason that our successful trader and teacher would ask for money in order to provide help. I can appreciate the fact that he would prefer to work with a small group and stay away from malevolent idiots that frequent public forums, and asking for money would be a good way to keep the quality of his teaching high. But even in that case, he shouldn't ask for money deposited in his account. He shouldn't be needing that. Instead, he could ask for donations to well-known charities like MSF, and then require proof of the donation in order to accept a student.

In any case, if someone would like to be accepted as a "guru" and ask money for mentoring, he should be posting live trades, at least until it becomes clear that he is indeed successful. Those people who have never posted live trades but still want money for mentorship, are simply scammers.

Now, what about those who start threads about their system and ask for nothing ? Well, I think these are 4 possible categories for such traders:

1) They intend to create a following with the purpose of selling some kind of service in the future.
2) They are just testing something without having achieved anything themselves, so their thread about their system is basically noise.
3) They have been only moderately successful and they really want to share and maybe improve their trading system. Their system may have varying results on different traders as time passes. The thread may degenerate as per the opening post. Sometimes the original poster will disappear, and others may start speculating that he made it big time or that he realized his system doesn't really work as expected.
4) They are that rare breed of traders who have been very successful, are trading full time, have banked several millions already, and they just want to share for free until they get bored.

I don't think I have seen any threads of the fourth type here in FF. Started by a trader who can a) prove with live trades (or by a small linked account) that he is being successful b) provide a believable story of how his trading success has brought him wealth and c) stick around long enough to convince us that he is consistently successful and d) never ask money for any kind of service.

If any among you have spotted such a trader, I'd like to see that thread...
  • #267
  • Mar 25, 2012 12:09pm Mar 25, 2012 12:09pm
Quoting mister me
custos,

with respect i just dont believe that a 100 % mechanical system exists,there has to be a variant of descresion,
This is one of the more ignorant posts on the forum.

Buy at 0800 GMT.
Exit at 0900 GMT.

This is a 100% mechanical system. I'm sure it is not profitable, but it is 100% mechanical.
  • #268
  • Mar 25, 2012 12:13pm Mar 25, 2012 12:13pm
Quoting micmic
I don't think I have seen any threads of the fourth type here in FF. Started by a trader who can a) prove with live trades (or by a small linked account) that he is being successful b) provide a believable story of how his trading success has brought him wealth and c) stick around long enough to convince us that he is consistently successful and d) never ask money for any kind of service.

If any among you have spotted such a trader, I'd like to see that thread...
Yes there is. The Sonic R System thread. I believe you have not read any of these threads, so you cannot say that "I don't think I have seen any threads of the fourth type here in FF". You are just waiting for someone else to prove it to you. Do some research, read the threads.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: SonicR.png Size: 134 KB
No longer trading forex. Looking for full time job.
  • #269
  • Mar 25, 2012 12:15pm Mar 25, 2012 12:15pm
exactly its not profitable,

but if you looked to trade it at 1min past or 2,with that descretion you may well have a profitable system
  • #270
  • Mar 25, 2012 12:15pm Mar 25, 2012 12:15pm
Quoting mister me
im not relating to any particular system,all systems that do not use stops ,mathamatically end in zero,minus the spread,what makes them profitable is the descrenionary exit,
I think you are stuck in your own flawed logic about "mathematically end in zero". You believe it, but there is no such maths to prove it ....... If you can't prove what you believe in, then there is something wrong with this logic.

To be specific, what exactly "ends in zero"? You cannot even explain the maths of what you believe in.
No longer trading forex. Looking for full time job.
  • #271
  • Mar 25, 2012 12:27pm Mar 25, 2012 12:27pm
Quoting mmaker
I think you are stuck in your own flawed logic about "mathematically end in zero". You believe it, but there is no such maths to prove it ....... If you can't prove what you believe in, then there is something wrong with this logic.

To be specific, what exactly "ends in zero"? You cannot even explain the maths of what you believe in.
zero is not the piont,you will always return to were you started minus the spread,

im not sure what your point is with me,ive stated many times that some can profit from these methods,i m just stating they are descrionary and the reason some make profits is because they are indirectly skewering the maths most likely through there loosing trades,i havnt read any of the trading systems mentioned so cant pimpiont details,but any system not using any stops if winning is being done by math default
  • #272
  • Mar 25, 2012 12:34pm Mar 25, 2012 12:34pm
Good old fashioned trend lines ( Range, Channels, Triangles, etc. ) and support and resistance work great and are not a system. Heikin-Ashi pin bars and Doji's work well also. Price is a leading Indicator and beats all of the lagging Indicators on my platform which I quit using two years ago. Forex can get as complicated as you want it to be or as simple as a few lines on your chart. Just my two cents.
  • #273
  • Mar 25, 2012 12:35pm Mar 25, 2012 12:35pm
Quoting mister me
exactly its not profitable,

but if you looked to trade it at 1min past or 2,with that descretion you may well have a profitable system
Then it isn't a system. Discretion means guessing. If you can guess your way to profits, don't bother with a system.

Just open up a chart and start guessing.
  • #274
  • Mar 25, 2012 12:35pm Mar 25, 2012 12:35pm
Quoting mister me
zero is not the piont,you will always return to were you started minus the spread,

im not sure what your point is with me,ive stated many times that some can profit from these methods,i m just stating they are descrionary and the reason some make profits is because they are indirectly skewering the maths most likely through there loosing trades,i havnt read any of the trading systems mentioned so cant pimpiont details,but any system not using any stops if winning is being done by math default
My point is that, you are stating ".... indirectly skewering the maths" without actually showing the maths. At least show the maths that what you are stating is actually true. In other words, show the maths that "you will always return to where you started minus the spread". Otherwise stating what is not proven is like plucking logic out of thin air.

And to make grand statements about "skewing the maths" when you admitted you actually have not read any of the threads is jumping into conclusions based on what you believe rather than what it is out there. I think until you at least read a few of those threads, your maths about "return to zero" is not correct. Well, if you can show the maths that is.
No longer trading forex. Looking for full time job.
  • #275
  • Mar 25, 2012 12:37pm Mar 25, 2012 12:37pm
Quoting mmaker
Yes there is. The Sonic R System thread. I believe you have not read any of these threads, so you cannot say that "I don't think I have seen any threads of the fourth type here in FF". You are just waiting for someone else to prove it to you. Do some research, read the threads.

I have read the basic points of most of the very popular threads here (spent too many hours reading over a period of two years). Certainly I have not read all of them or all the posts in each and everyone of them. In any case I knew about the SonicR system, but maybe I have missed where exactly it fulfills the second of my criteria:

Quote
b) provide a believable story of how his trading success has brought him wealth


ETA: For the record, I have settled on what exactly works for me. And I have done so by trying a lot of different stuff and making something of my own. So I don't want anything to be "proven" to me as I have spent more time studying, testing and coding than the vast majority of people here (and I say that fully realizing that there are some traders here who have spent much more time than me in studying forex).
  • #276
  • Mar 25, 2012 12:44pm Mar 25, 2012 12:44pm
Quoting hello2u
Good old fashioned trend lines ( Range, Channels, Triangles, etc. ) and support and resistance work great and are not a system. Heikin-Ashi pin bars and Doji's work well also. Price is a leading Indicator and beats all of the lagging Indicators on my platform which I quit using two years ago. Forex can get as complicated as you want it to be or as simple as a few lines on your chart. Just my two cents.
yep keep it simple,nothing wrong with that and it works,with descresion

mmaker

were misunderstanding one and other,

all im saying is if the posters on those threads that are profitable understand the reason they would be indefiantly profitable,if they dont know why its working then at some point they will start loosing,thats why the rules of the system keep changing

just identify why it works
  • #277
  • Mar 25, 2012 12:52pm Mar 25, 2012 12:52pm
So now were using a threads post count to decide it's success and profitability??? What the hell is the wrong with you people?

I believe Billbss has said it before .... NAH...I wont bother.
Use the search function if you want to know.

BS
Master your Mind,,,Master the Market
  • #278
  • Mar 25, 2012 1:50pm Mar 25, 2012 1:50pm
Quoting bluesteele
So now were using a threads post count to decide it's success and profitability??? What the hell is the wrong with you people?

I believe Billbss has said it before .... NAH...I wont bother.
Use the search function if you want to know.
The great John Wooden once said, "Never mistake activity for achievement".

He was obviously not thinking about Forex Factory when he said that...but, man it sure is appropriate.
  • #279
  • Mar 25, 2012 3:12pm Mar 25, 2012 3:12pm
Quoting zznbrm
The great John Wooden once said, "Never mistake activity for achievement".

He was obviously not thinking about Forex Factory when he said that...but, man it sure is appropriate.

LOL..very good !

Perhaps we should have a FF thread explorer ! Just think how we can analyze to death post count volatility, volumes etc.... hahaha

On that note I think I have to get busy doing something????
Master your Mind,,,Master the Market
  • #280
  • Mar 26, 2012 1:00am Mar 26, 2012 1:00am
Quoting mmaker
My point is that, you are stating ".... indirectly skewering the maths" without actually showing the maths. At least show the maths that what you are stating is actually true. In other words, show the maths that "you will always return to where you started minus the spread". Otherwise stating what is not proven is like plucking logic out of thin air.

And to make grand statements about "skewing the maths" when you admitted you actually have not read any of the threads is jumping into conclusions based on what you believe rather than what...
Posts still flowing on this thread...nice. But mmaker, let "mister me" be. This whole misunderstanding is just a problem arising from semantics.

Firstly "mister me", you should imply 100% 'Profitable' and not 100% 'Mechanical'. Or better still, "100% Mechanical that is Profitable". Coming from a world of software design and development+computer engineering to writing robots/EAs, I can tell you, you're misconstruing the word 'Mechanical'. A strategy is 100% mechanical as long as it operates with 0% effort from an external body.

Buy when the fast MA crosses the slow MA from below and Sell when the fast MA crosses the slow MA from above is 100% mechanical. The profitability of such system does not affect it's mechanics.

Secondly mmaker, profiting week after week by trading with no stop loss doesn't mean your account cannot return to zero. "Mister me" is trying to make you understand, that trading without SLs, though profitable in the short run, can be disastrous in the end. He mentioned the Black Swan. He wants you to understand how the saying "All swans are white" is wrong. Because a collection of 1million white swans does not necessary mean all swans are white. The day a Black specie was spotted, that statement was immediately falsified. In summary, a collection of 1000 winning trades that has no SL rule, is not enough to say; a strategy is profitable. Because the day will come, that prices will move in an adverse direction and keep going and may be a crash(very fast), and all that would be left, would be a Margin Call.

If you do not know when your plan has failed and cut ur losses, you're not trading, you're simply gambling. I can tell you that the Euro will rise 200pips from here. Duh, so what? It could be in the next 3years. But when I tell you the Euro will rise 200pips from here before falling 50pips, then it simply means I know what I'm saying and you can know when my bullish call becomes invalid. Once your capital is protected, there'll always be another opportunity.


Kindest regards,
Motion
Don't just beat the markets, leave bruises.
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