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Beyond the Candles

  • #481
  • Mar 21, 2012 5:55am Mar 21, 2012 5:55am
EURNZD, there is a two bar pin around the 1.6150 hin H1, i missed.

Waiting for the 1.6240 broken through and close above.


Quoting szpowerx
eurnzd, 1.6150 broken up and close above, can we expect a long nearby the 1.6100?

B.R.
Raymond
Outcome is not important at all, but correct technique is what only matters
  • #482
  • Mar 21, 2012 8:23am Mar 21, 2012 8:23am
This stuff entered with a H1 BUOB,

TP1 1.524 TP2 1.59


Quoting szpowerx
GBPAUD weekly, falling wedge?

The target would be 1.59

Now, waiting for a retrace to 1.5, expecting the 1.51 resistance to block it.
Outcome is not important at all, but correct technique is what only matters
  • #483
  • Mar 21, 2012 8:28am Mar 21, 2012 8:28am
Waiting for this stuff.

B.R.
Raymond
Quoting szpowerx
The NJ, 68.06~69.41 is a zone of weekly high close resistance, and this is the top of the box.

My plan:
1) Waiting for a short if close below 68.06 (actually in H4, close below 68.46, i short it one time already, target 68. The line of 68.46 is also a middle high close resistance)

2) Given 69.41 broken up, waiting for a long when RT

B.R.
Raymond
Outcome is not important at all, but correct technique is what only matters
  • #484
  • Mar 21, 2012 8:47am Mar 21, 2012 8:47am
Quoting szpowerx
EURNZD, there is a two bar pin around the 1.6150 hin H1, i missed.

Waiting for the 1.6240 broken through and close above.


can show us the picture bro?
  • #485
  • Mar 21, 2012 3:18pm Mar 21, 2012 3:18pm
Hello,

I have finally got some more time to follow this wonderful thread and I think this post could use some clarification.


Quoting szpowerx
The first good entry point would be around 126.58, i missed

Now waiting for the 130 entry, i.e. weekly close above and retest entry

I use the high/low point of the candle's extreme point, so the target is 137

Is this computation wrong or ok? Thanks!

First of all, you have to make sure you read the thread from the beginning. Your usage of the W graph for trade entries makes me think you skipped something.

This is the "WPD-WPG method" and it's based on understanding WPD (What Price is Doing) on higher time frames (usually M and W) and then finding RET W entries on the daily time frame.
It's rare to be able and trade directly on the W time frame because it requires huge 500-800 pip stop losses.

Going to the specific of your graph, you indeed noticed the double bottom. Per FXGroup method (I know, others do different!), static / horizontal patterns and candle bars have S and R attached to their candles open and close, not min and max.

Dynamic / trend line contained patterns have S and R attached to their min and max.

In our case we have *two* patterns in one. The double bottom and a bullish wedge.

I am going to skip the M graph since it just shows the double bottom like the W one. I will also not put many W lines on the W graph because it'll get too cluttered.

Look at my W graph: the blue RM fitting the candles bodies is the double bottom. Notice the target, it neatly points at RN 133 (all RNs and BRNs in yellow).

The cyan trend lines show the wedge. Projecting its target you'd see it goes ahead of the above.

Going to find entries on the D chart:

I indicated just a couple of possible entries you could take by using the WPD + WPG method or other methods FXGroup might explain later.

From the bottom left:

1) BUOB + PB, look at the W chart. This is a safe trade even if only up to the red trend line. M support (purple) + BRN 120 + RET on the pattern below 120 to the left. I could spend days about different ways how to take partial profits etc. on this one, I'll spare you the wall of text (like this is not one already!).

2) BUOB + PB: another safe trade, RET W + RET on underlying RM, good up to at least BRN 125.

3) Bullish flag + RET on whole underlying double bottom RM + RET weelky wedge trend line + RET D (weakest). This could have been a "daily method" entry up to RN 127. Since there are a lot of confluences it could have been possible to just dump 50% of the position and get a free and trade up to RN 130. MM at RN 127 (high of the double bottom peak), then RN 128 (see swing to left of double bottom).

4) and 5) Two PBs at the bottom of a RM in bullish trend. Playable to the top of the RM itself.

6) PB doing RET on BRN 130, right after a W PB. Another safe (not top lucrative) trade unless you are really really willing to trust the end of May W candle.

--------------------


On a final note, szpowerx, this thread is about a method applied on daily candles upwards, the "1H bar" trades are outside of its topic.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2012-03-21_GBPJPY_W_01.png Size: 43 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 2012-03-21_GBPJPY_D_01.png Size: 45 KB
  • #486
  • Mar 21, 2012 4:12pm Mar 21, 2012 4:12pm
Hi dfumagalli,

Great post.

Looking forward to more posts from you guys.

I will not use the h1/h4 entry in this thread, sorry about this.

From your post, i think i learn the following:

1) Know WPG/WPD from weekly and monthly

2) waiting for a weekly PA, at least daily PA, then use the daily candle as an entry
(Actually, i understand this from begging from your original posts, but still practice it, got a few SL actually, need more practices)

3) We compute pattern target using the candle close


If i still understand wrong, please let me know, thanks!

BTW, dfumagalli, will you please to post more? You know, we can learn much from your posts (At least my case, i assume same as other guys)

And can you shed more light on how to MM and trade management, thanks!

B.R.
Raymond

Quoting dfumagalli
Hello,

I have finally got some more time to follow this wonderful thread and I think this post could use some clarification.





First of all, you have to make sure you read the thread from the beginning. Your usage of the W graph for trade entries makes me think you skipped something.

This is the "WPD-WPG method" and it's based on understanding WPD (What Price is Doing) on higher time frames (usually M and W) and then finding RET W entries on the daily time frame.
It's rare to be able and trade directly on the W time frame because...
Outcome is not important at all, but correct technique is what only matters
  • #487
  • Mar 21, 2012 5:15pm Mar 21, 2012 5:15pm
Quoting szpowerx
Hi dfumagalli,

Great post.

Looking forward to more posts from you guys.
I will not use the h1/h4 entry in this thread, sorry about this.

From your post, i think i learn the following:
1) Know WPG/WPD from weekly and monthly
2) waiting for a weekly PA, at least daily PA, then use the daily candle as an entry
(Actually, i understand this from begging from your original posts, but still practice it, got a few SL actually, need more practices)
3) We compute pattern target using the candle close

If i still understand wrong, please let me know, thanks!...
The first suggestion is to re-read this "Step by step version of the Method as I understand it".

First you approach a market in a "macro" way: on a M chart you quickly notice if the price is going up, down, RM...
If you are lucky you also see a pattern forming, like a double bottom, a triangle. This is the "What Price is Doing" phase.

Then you go on the W chart and ... repeat it again. W is the place where you will find more nice patterns, more triangles etc and they are usually all nicely trade-able. The W chart is where with this method you will plan the take profits, the money management (i.e. move the stop loss below the current trade swing).
Why on the W chart? Because you really want *space to breath*. It's far easier to trade inside a W RM 800 pips tall than inside a 200 pips D RM. The former lets you move the stop loss, gives you some 1.5:1 / 2:1 and even 3:1 reward:risk. All Good Things.

If and only if M and W have the same direction (both uptrends, both downtrends, W is uptrend at the bottom of a M upswing inside a M RM...) then you proceed to the daily time frame.

The daily is your "worker" time frame. You may find double bottoms and triangles in there as well, but usually they are small-ish compared to the size of the candles inside them. If the patterns happen to be big, feel free to trade them!
In the daily time frame you seek for a retracement on a weekly price level. I.e. price exits a double bottom (see my previous post) upwards, does a little "arc" and gets back down to the top of the double bottom resistance line. If that resistance line is a weekly line AND a price action pattern forms (PB, BUOB...) AND W is bullish AND M is bullish then you are safe to buy and stay in the trade at least up to the next weekly price level (that is, usually a whole weekly chart swing).

As you get more experienced you'll naturally "see" how those nice levels tend to sit at round numbers, over / under range markets (including bottoms and tops). Check the daily chart in my previous post. The first trade is a clear example of RETracement (see the little "arc" before the PA candle), the second is a typical W price level sitting on top of a RM, where to check for RET and then go long.


Quoting szpowerx
BTW, dfumagalli, will you please to post more? You know, we can learn much from your posts (At least my case, i assume same as other guys)

And can you shed more light on how to MM and trade management, thanks!

B.R.
Raymond
I am extremely thankful for the appreciation!
I will try and post more often. I am quite busy though and I am a guest in a thread which I would not want to "take over".
  • #488
  • Mar 21, 2012 5:38pm Mar 21, 2012 5:38pm
Hi DF,

Thanks for the teaching.

Actually, i intensively monitor your website too.

If you post some new stuffs there, i am definitely reading it.

Thanks!

B.R.
Raymond
Outcome is not important at all, but correct technique is what only matters
  • #489
  • Mar 22, 2012 12:33am Mar 22, 2012 12:33am
GBPNZD
Not long time ago ... please check my post from Mar, 3... just 3 weeks ago another improvment of market method.

Patience...patience...patience.

Thanks Fxgroup .
  • #490
  • Mar 22, 2012 7:07am Mar 22, 2012 7:07am
Quoting Dariusz
GBPNZD
Not long time ago ... please check my post from Mar, 3... just 3 weeks ago another improvment of market method.

Patience...patience...patience.

Thanks Fxgroup .
You don't need to thank me at all, the patience is one of the most important factor in trading and this is one of the reasons I choose to trade only D and higher.
If you will look over some higher TF charts, you will see that the market is giving us some good opportunities, not to talk about how generous it was this month by far !
Nothing personal,just business
  • #491
  • Mar 22, 2012 4:29pm Mar 22, 2012 4:29pm
GU, short opp?

I wish i was in at the 1.5919, but not. But still, opportunity exists, looks like.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: gu_d.jpg Size: 52 KB
Outcome is not important at all, but correct technique is what only matters
  • #492
  • Mar 22, 2012 5:11pm Mar 22, 2012 5:11pm
Quoting szpowerx
GU, short opp?

I wish i was in at the 1.5919, but not. But still, opportunity exists, looks like.

well, a bit dangerous bro szpowerx.

i refer to the daily chart.
around a week ago, it has tested the lows of last month and rose back up.
it may still carry on an uptrend.

unless you are going against the wave and grab some pips?
  • #493
  • Mar 22, 2012 5:44pm Mar 22, 2012 5:44pm
Hi Ked Bro,

Thanks for your suggestion. I accept it entirely, thanks!

Following is my 2 cents:

1)

M - price is in a down channel

i admit it is in the middle of a big range box, this would give us some
indefinity and danger. So it should be very careful

2)
W - i am wondering wether a possible triple top?

well, last two weeks are 2 bar pin, however, i would see 1.5882 and 1.5919 big resistance (1.5919 weekly and monthly resistance)

and actually the weekly candle broke through and close below

the price broken through and close below makes me feels a down bias

3)
D - well, i could see the 1.5882 retrace is a valid rejection
with last two days a big beob

so this would be a what DF said " a retracement on a weekly price level"


Ked Bro, i understand what you mean the month low, this is important.
I assume it can be traded this way:
- Close half at the 1.5720 (if it would reach, 1.5702 S in my MT4 actually) and set the remain as BE

Thanks for your evaluation, Bro. Good luck and have a nice day.

B.R.
Raymond



Quoting kedridder
well, a bit dangerous bro szpowerx.

i refer to the daily chart.
around a week ago, it has tested the lows of last month and rose back up.
it may still carry on an uptrend.

unless you are going against the wave and grab some pips?
Outcome is not important at all, but correct technique is what only matters
  • #494
  • Mar 22, 2012 11:49pm Mar 22, 2012 11:49pm
Hello FXgroup and all others,

nice to see so many good charts.

Here is GBPAUD W & D, as we have this recent move lower in AUD/USD, many look now at other AUD correlated pairs.

Many pips to all & thank you FXgroup !

Michael
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: 2012-03-23_0730_gbpaud-daily.jpg Size: 112 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 2012-03-23_0741_audusd-daily.jpg Size: 100 KB
Be like water.
  • #495
  • Mar 23, 2012 3:16am Mar 23, 2012 3:16am
Might be clear direction in some time.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2012-03-23_11-20_USDCHF_D.jpg Size: 39 KB
  • #496
  • Mar 23, 2012 4:18am Mar 23, 2012 4:18am
Hi Kedridder, You are awesome.

How do you judge there would be a big retrace for this stuff?

I use a big SL for this since it is a daily entry. So far, the position is still alive.
But if it give me a close above 1.5883 (I hate to say H4 close), i will quit with my SL.


B.R.
Raymond


Quoting kedridder
well, a bit dangerous bro szpowerx.

i refer to the daily chart.
around a week ago, it has tested the lows of last month and rose back up.
it may still carry on an uptrend.

unless you are going against the wave and grab some pips?
Outcome is not important at all, but correct technique is what only matters
  • #497
  • Mar 23, 2012 2:06pm Mar 23, 2012 2:06pm
Follow-up from my earlier post. I hope many of you caught some pips.

Good weekend to all !

Michael
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2012-03-23_2155_audusd-daily.jpg Size: 99 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 2012-03-23_2156_gbpaud_daily.jpg Size: 103 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 2012-03-23_2157_gbpaud-daily_zoomout.jpg Size: 107 KB
Be like water.
  • #498
  • Mar 23, 2012 4:57pm Mar 23, 2012 4:57pm
Since this is a Weekly R retrace as the criteria, the R is at 1.5883.

So its better to enter as close as the 1.5833. My entry take the daily close 1.5821, this is a long distance to 1.5883.

In future i will be more cautious to my entry point.

Be patient, be patient, be patient!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gu_w.jpg Size: 76 KB
Outcome is not important at all, but correct technique is what only matters
  • #499
  • Mar 23, 2012 6:00pm Mar 23, 2012 6:00pm
Quoting Dariusz
Might be clear direction in some time.
Hi Bro, I also looking intensively on this one.

Looks like a good potential one, but be patient, right?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: uchf_w.jpg Size: 66 KB
Outcome is not important at all, but correct technique is what only matters
  • #500
  • Mar 24, 2012 3:22am Mar 24, 2012 3:22am
Quoting szpowerx
Hi Kedridder, You are awesome.

How do you judge there would be a big retrace for this stuff?

I use a big SL for this since it is a daily entry. So far, the position is still alive.
But if it give me a close above 1.5883 (I hate to say H4 close), i will quit with my SL.


B.R.
Raymond


bro, you've given me way too much credit lah. i always tend to look at daily chart or H1 chart. make sure i trade in these 2 chart's trend.
i got a chicken heart lah.
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