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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #32,301
  • Edited 3:27pm Mar 21, 2012 3:05pm | Edited 3:27pm
Quoting fti
nothing to fear.
just 1 option writer in london dumped his options hedge upon expiry and the whole market making community scutters.
what big balls they have?
Why don't they just go set up money changing booths.
have more spread pips to make la.
stabalisation funds?
even my johnson's laughing.
for a moment i though heli made QE3 statement.
Nothing to trade already.
see you tom.

regards
This seems to be a repeating pattern lately: A strong move towards 1.xx00 or 1.xx50 just before 15:00 GMT (option expiry time? )

Am I right to assume that as per your scenario the option writer sold a call vanilla option and so closed a long spot hedge position?

Alternatively can it be the option writer has sold a barrier option with a KO at 1.3200 which he's trying to deactivate and cash in the premium just before expiration?

Also, is it possible he is attacking partially his own stop order (that he used for his long spot hedge)?

Hopefully this makes some sense
  • #32,302
  • Mar 21, 2012 8:56pm Mar 21, 2012 8:56pm
ok nice prices.
they like giant firewall, I hope is for banking liwuidity.
If they like use it defend the euro, its likely to be a big campfire fire.

watch your own donkeys, Iam in battlestations.
ok back to my cave.
  • #32,303
  • Edited Mar 22, 2012 1:49am Mar 21, 2012 9:03pm | Edited Mar 22, 2012 1:49am
Quoting Arhs99
This seems to be a repeating pattern lately: A strong move towards 1.xx00 or 1.xx50 just before 15:00 GMT (option expiry time? )

Am I right to assume that as per your scenario the option writer sold a call vanilla option and so closed a long spot hedge position?

Alternatively can it be the option writer has sold a barrier option with a KO at 1.3200 which he's trying to deactivate and cash in the premium just before expiration?

Also, is it possible he is attacking partially his own stop order (that he used for his long spot hedge)?

Hopefully...
??
why does it have to be vanillas.
who does vanillas anymore?
you assumes too much for very large positions.
likely be zero cost long puts
could be strangles.
could be some weird butterflys.
You think big guns will show their blotters?
You want, you can continue guessing.
but 1 friendly word of advise. guessing is gambling.
is fast track to the poor house.
I need go get some usd.
Any ways you big gun doing the long sword.
here only little retail ants.
Its wrong circles, my friend, we have only small buckets.

The way we was setup for the hit.
They blotter probably in yards, and you think they gonna show blotters?
unlikely.
may just show you 1 leg of it, throw you off , if they wanted to.
wish i knew more, sorry but i have little info.


regards
  • #32,304
  • Mar 21, 2012 9:09pm Mar 21, 2012 9:09pm
Quoting tubguy
Heck yea!

When I get where I need to be with these boys and the finance's, have to have a TAF gathering and I'll be happy to cook some.

Just the way I like mine too sir!



zz
  • #32,305
  • Mar 22, 2012 1:45am Mar 22, 2012 1:45am
When the going gets tough the tough get going.
This normally peeps who works for a living.

Is better than those , when the going gets tough, they change the rules.
This the peeps who live on others.

http://www.forexfactory.com/news.php?do=news&id=349446

regards
  • #32,306
  • Mar 22, 2012 2:00am Mar 22, 2012 2:00am
huh, the markets are so pegged.

anyway, has any one seen this?

March 20, 2012: An animal rights activist protests against meat consumption through a performance to promote vegetarianism during "Day Without Meat" in central Barcelona.

coming to your supermarket near you soon?
They getting very artistic? but sure drives home the message. caught my eye instantly.Or maybe i am just bored, but sure gonna spoil dinner.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/ne...&autoplay=true
Attached Image
  • #32,307
  • Mar 22, 2012 2:10am Mar 22, 2012 2:10am
yup, noticed lots of talk from pimco too.

I heard human tastes like pork, which brings to question what is really in hot dogs...
  • #32,308
  • Edited 2:49am Mar 22, 2012 2:20am | Edited 2:49am
Quoting fullperson
yup, noticed lots of talk from pimco too.

I heard human tastes like pork, which brings to question what is really in hot dogs...
sourish, not like pork. I haven't eaten any. I read in the classic , when eating your enemies was practised. Text pointed to how sourish it was one to another. funny, come think of it, sourish was only description of human flesh.

was eating humans the thought that pic brought to your mind.
For me was how we becoming packaged into "molds".

eeeeer, mostly chicken , beef and horses. why? i believe only can find dogs in them in china.
need ask imjscn, dogs is a staple in parts of china.

regards
  • #32,309
  • Edited 2:55am Mar 22, 2012 2:39am | Edited 2:55am
interesting volatility spike on eur/gbp and gbp/chf...

well first I was worried if she had an air hole or not lol. At least had decency clothe them a bit. I've been hearing a lot about cannibalism recently since I stared watching survival movies..made my first few snares ever today.

hmm now dog, that does not sound very tender. But I guess sit depends on how you cook it
  • #32,310
  • Mar 22, 2012 2:54am Mar 22, 2012 2:54am
Quoting fullperson
interesting volatility spike on eur/gbp and gbp/chf...

well first I was worried if she had an air hole or not lol. At least had decency clothe them a bit. I've been hearing a lot about cannibalism recently since I stared watching survival movies..made my first few snares ever today.
yeah, it brings the mind to all sorts of dark places.

by the way , you on the desks yet?

regards
  • #32,311
  • Edited 5:10am Mar 22, 2012 2:58am | Edited 5:10am
not yet, it's for summer

fun, we're hitting 110 on eur/yen, nice bounce...gonna see how it holds..scutter due to bad french data?

ok, now testing eur/gbp and gbp/chf..see what's up...real or not?

If remember correctly, I saw an article that the euro was on the move again, tough numbers though...approaching 83 on the dollar/yen

first poke seemed to slice 83, let's see how the rest of the data goes (but the bad tone is set I feel)...hmmm third impulse is always screwey, better be careful

25 mins, sterling data, better reel in any profits, could be funky this one

Oh I hear morning birds just as song comes up, moment please
Inserted Video


wouldn't it be perverse if all euro data today was negative?

2 mins, I wonder if data is gonna be off the mark again

83.33 eh?...well I'll be darned, http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/...8EG1NL20120319
  • #32,312
  • Mar 22, 2012 3:00am Mar 22, 2012 3:00am
Quoting fti
huh, the markets are so pegged.

anyway, has any one seen this?
You're a trippy fella fti. If you could sum up trading or the way you trade in one sentence... What would you say?
Time hides Nothing
  • #32,313
  • Mar 22, 2012 3:03am Mar 22, 2012 3:03am
Quoting fullperson
not yet, it's for summer
Oh , just a reminder.
If you get on desk , you would had signed a disclosure declaration for the hr.
So no trading for self, and all stocks and equities holdings are to be declared.

just thought to highlight to you.

regards
  • #32,314
  • Mar 22, 2012 3:04am Mar 22, 2012 3:04am
Quoting CindyXXXX
You're a trippy fella fti. If you could sum up trading or the way you trade in one sentence... What would you say?
oh that again.
welcome.
ok, professionally is the word, i guess.

you probably like have a sentence that gives sudden enlightenment.
But so sorry i not have one.

Not so long ago i tried.
Came up with this.

buy, if buy not make money, sell, if sell not make too, then read the thread.

regards
  • #32,315
  • Mar 22, 2012 3:07am Mar 22, 2012 3:07am
of course, disclosures


Quoting fti
Oh , just a reminder.
If you get on desk , you would had signed a disclosure declaration for the hr.
So no trading for self, and all stocks and equities holdings are to be declared.

just thought to highlight to you.

regards
  • #32,316
  • Mar 22, 2012 3:16am Mar 22, 2012 3:16am
Quoting fullperson
of course, disclosures
disclosures is ok, but no let them hang you for "conflicts of interest".

regards
  • #32,317
  • Mar 22, 2012 3:23am Mar 22, 2012 3:23am
Quoting fti
oh that again.
welcome.
ok, professionally is the word, i guess.

you probably like have a sentence that gives sudden enlightenment.
But so sorry i not have one.

Not so long ago i tried.
Came up with this.

buy, if buy not make money, sell, if sell not make too, then read the thread.

regards
ok, I hear that. Well I kind of have my own sentence but was just curious as to yours as you are a much more experienced trader and all. Likely I will erase that sentence to a blank state of white light before I reach my true potential. Definition is of course the art of in the box thinking, which is comparative to technical analysis, which is stated as a fallacy by the title of your thread.

Blah.

Keep doing what you're doing makes no sense to me and every time I come here there is even more too many pages to read. But seems you are inspiring lots of people.
Time hides Nothing
  • #32,318
  • Mar 22, 2012 3:31am Mar 22, 2012 3:31am
Quoting CindyXXXX
ok, I hear that. Well I kind of have my own sentence but was just curious as to yours as you are a much more experienced trader and all. Likely I will erase that sentence to a blank state of white light before I reach my true potential. Definition is of course the art of in the box thinking, which is comparative to technical analysis, which is stated as a fallacy by the title of your thread.

Blah.

Keep doing what you're doing makes no sense to me and every time I come here there is even more too many pages to read. But seems you are inspiring...
you didn't read thread.
TA is no fallacy. Only the way some peeps uses it.
Mostly in a predictive manner.

Fundemental Analysis is to understand market movements.
TA is the timer.


oops i need go, need to take my profits.


regards.
  • #32,319
  • Mar 22, 2012 3:35am Mar 22, 2012 3:35am
haha, it's true. My prof focused his entire life on predictive models, and claims that TA does not work, it's all random. Funny, he sure knows a lot of chart patterns!
  • #32,320
  • Mar 22, 2012 3:36am Mar 22, 2012 3:36am
Quoting fti

Fundemental Analysis is to understand market movements.
TA is the timer.
Hey, I think we got a sentence .

Thanks. Sorry to disrupt the thread, carry on.
Time hides Nothing
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