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Daily GBP/JPY analysis

  • #16,341
  • Edited Mar 19, 2012 1:40am Mar 18, 2012 9:26pm | Edited Mar 19, 2012 1:40am
Quoting torkay77
in case this counting is right it can't be a valid diagonal ending or leading cause wave 4 is not overlapping wave 1, so probably there can be a fith wave extension as well ..or maybe wave 4 isn't finished yet

No, it's not a true ending diagonal in the sense of 4 overlaping 1 ( so far) and each wave is a 3 x 3. But its still in a diagonal. I've seen more diagonal triangles like this one than the ones you see referenced in elliot wave documents..
  • #16,342
  • Mar 18, 2012 9:27pm Mar 18, 2012 9:27pm
Gbp vs Jpy (4H) - At the moment, a pullback from the bullish continuation critical line 1 and a breakout toward the lower red trendline would bolster to the alt counts either in yellow or aqua. Otherwise, we may see another extension of wave 5 in white.


Gbp vs Jpy (Weekly) - At the moment, I believe market in progress to perform a major bullish reversal trend scenario either refering to the alt counts in yellow or white. Therefore, I'm looking forward for a potential of a bearish retracement trend opportunity later to perform corrective wave B. Good lucks.
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  • #16,343
  • Mar 19, 2012 6:27am Mar 19, 2012 6:27am
Quoting Mpt
No, it's not a true ending diagonal in the sense of 4 overlaping 1 ( so far) and each wave is a 3 x 3. But its still in a diagonal. I've seen more diagonal triangles like this one than the ones you see referenced in elliot wave documents..
actually i count a 5-3-5-3 sequence but i will not argue if it is 3-3-3-3 ... if the latest low is from wave 4 so what's missing is a last 5 wave sequence

by the way did anybody noticed that the VIX hit the 2 year old low..maybe the calm before the storm
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  • #16,344
  • Mar 19, 2012 6:33am Mar 19, 2012 6:33am
Quoting torkay77
actually i count a 5-3-5-3 sequence but i will not argue if it is 3-3-3-3 ... if the latest low is from wave 4 so what's missing is a last 5 wave sequence

by the way did anybody noticed that the VIX hit the 2 year old low..maybe the calm before the storm
OK, 4 of 5 may be complete and now starting 5. If you look carefully, there are other possible channel lines above 133.3. They run in parallel with the 133.3 one, and sit directly above at 134.5 (top line starting point 150.66) and 135.5 (top line start 153.13)
  • #16,345
  • Mar 20, 2012 5:23am Mar 20, 2012 5:23am
my last count seemed to be wrong..either wave 5 is extending or we just are in wave 3..so we still have a chance to form a diagonal ending 3-3-3-3-3 pattern, but notice the divergence building up in the stochs
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  • #16,346
  • Edited 6:43am Mar 20, 2012 5:29am | Edited 6:43am
Quoting torkay77
my last count seemed to be wrong..either wave 5 is extending or we just are in wave 3..so we still have a chance to form a diagonal ending 3-3-3-3-3 pattern, but notice the divergence building up in the stochs

The area you marked as red 2 at 131.43 was probably end of wave 4. 3 ended 131.69, wave a to 130.22 wave b to 132.4 wave c to 131.4.
  • #16,347
  • Mar 20, 2012 9:28am Mar 20, 2012 9:28am
so this might look better
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  • #16,348
  • Mar 20, 2012 9:37am Mar 20, 2012 9:37am
Quoting torkay77
so this might look better
At the moment I'm totally confused. I really cannot work out what wave it's in. Unless wave 4 has only just finished??? If so, it's probably going higher.
  • #16,349
  • Mar 20, 2012 1:49pm Mar 20, 2012 1:49pm
30 minute
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  • #16,350
  • Mar 20, 2012 3:51pm Mar 20, 2012 3:51pm
on the daily it is also possible we are still in wave 3
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  • #16,351
  • Mar 20, 2012 4:05pm Mar 20, 2012 4:05pm
Quoting torkay77
on the daily it is also possible we are still in wave 3

I just woke up to look at the chart .. silly me. Latest idea. Is it possible that most of wave 5 was NOT in a triangle at all, but the last subwave is? And subwave d and e (4 and 5) have yet to form. target still 133.2~3


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  • #16,352
  • Mar 21, 2012 4:54am Mar 21, 2012 4:54am
It would appear that GBPJPY has topped at 133.47
  • #16,353
  • Mar 21, 2012 5:38am Mar 21, 2012 5:38am
yeah it seems a 4h pinbar is forming

ej has the same scenario but only a 1h pinbar so far...
  • #16,354
  • Mar 21, 2012 9:03am Mar 21, 2012 9:03am
okay i deleted all that complicated elliot stuff

if the second pinbar is confirmed i enter my live short at 1.32.7

keep it simple
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  • #16,355
  • Mar 21, 2012 9:49am Mar 21, 2012 9:49am
Quoting torkay77
okay i deleted all that complicated elliot stuff

if the second pinbar is confirmed i enter my live short at 1.32.7

keep it simple
The daily pivot sits at 132.66. It may be wise to wait until you see a close below there, just in case there is a new channel that was not obvious.
  • #16,356
  • Edited 10:46am Mar 21, 2012 10:16am | Edited 10:46am
the sell on the chart is on my demo only..lol... it is possible there is still one of these endless wave 5s missing, going for one more high but there is also a trend line break going on now.. i wait for a candle close below

i don't know how big the correction will be, cause we might just have finished wave 3 of 5....if it is only a wave 4 correction it will be short, maybe 150 to 200 pips ...
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  • #16,357
  • Mar 21, 2012 6:19pm Mar 21, 2012 6:19pm
in this post we said its going to 130
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...31#post5292231

now Its 4 sale from 133
take profit 125
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  • #16,358
  • Edited 11:16pm Mar 21, 2012 8:34pm | Edited 11:16pm
Expecting first bounce at around 131 area. IF it's going to extend, that would be the likely turning point.

Otherwise, I''ll run with this chart, with the first bounce only being wave B of A and capping at 133 or a double top.


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  • #16,359
  • Mar 22, 2012 5:29am Mar 22, 2012 5:29am
price broke the wave 5 channel line and 4h MA50 channel so this retracement might be too big to be a wave 4 of 5, so the whole 5 wave upmove might be finished and we just see wave A of the correction...when it ends somewhere above the 23.&% fib we should see a wave B up which either makes a new high or not, forming whatever correction pattern...
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  • #16,360
  • Mar 22, 2012 5:49am Mar 22, 2012 5:49am
Quoting torkay77
price broke the wave 5 channel line and 4h MA50 channel so this retracement might be too big to be a wave 4 of 5, so the whole 5 wave upmove might be finished and we just see wave A of the correction...when it ends somewhere above the 23.&% fib we should see a wave B up which either makes a new high or not, forming whatever correction pattern...
Partially agreed. Wave 5 has completed. We just went down for A of A. As per my posted chart, I expect B of A to complete close to the top in about 1~2 days time. It will be stopped in its advance by a trend line that passes through 130.2 and 132.4 that it broke out of and retested twice some hours ago.
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