M&W-Trading

The main adjustment I've made to deal with the last couple of weeks has been my daily bias. Normally I look at where we are in the weekly cycle e.g whether we are in a 3-moves up phase, 3-moves down phase or accumulation for the week. But with the moves of late it hasn't been uncommon to see one day up, one day down, two days consolidation etc.

With this in mind while still looking at the weekly position I've been taking each day almost in isolation. That is tracking the current move in relation to the London session out of the Asian consolidation and making decisions off that. I'm not sure it's the best approach as its more reactive than forward planning and to be honest it's not how I want to trade for the long term, but just adjusting to current conditions.

Cheers and trade well this week

Hutch

Nice trade torbarxa. Did u ride it to the top?

Thanks, I just get 50 pips, could have 100... but you never knows...

GBP/USD gave 5mins "SharkFin" trade at 3:35amET, shorted at 1.58759 and 1.58701.
http://i.imgur.com/9h8US.png

Update: Couldn't get much out of it ...... pretty choppy. Scratched.
http://i.imgur.com/J4bA7.png

AUD/USD saw (bearish) continuation 5mins M-pattern at 3:10amET, in line with declining moving averages and in direction of the larger 15mins M-pattern. Shorted at 1.05655 and 1.05315.
http://i.imgur.com/cNoOY.png

Update: best partial exit so far at 1.04942 for +71pips.
http://i.imgur.com/nLyAF.png

EUR/USD gave 5mins M-pattern with TDI divergence at 3:15amET, shorted at 1.32347 and 1.32311 but moved stop to breakeven too quickly. Had too many open positions in same bearish direction so needed to reduce open risks. Scratched out for +1pip and missed out the best possible short entry.
http://i.imgur.com/ZqeJ7.png

Update: Re-entered short at 1.32244 and 1.32184 when prices pulled back at 5:20amET. Peeled off partial profits with best exit at +46pips.

Must confess, I've stuck mainly to the 15m and larger timeframes. Thought 5min may be a bit too choppy but your results show the system seems to work on all timeframes. Will look into this to probably time entries.

Thanks for sharing this

Hutch

I think the reason why he is using the M5 rather than the M15 is to see what is happening in each 15 min candle's

I don't trade the 5m anymore, either. There are too many other variables in play trading the 5m charts to reliably filter out bad trades, in my opinion. Flags require more room, as they are momentum-based trend trades.

So I took advice from another successful flag trader and only work the 15m charts, using the hourly and 4H charts as guidelines for how much room there is for any prospective flag trade. I also avoid flag SUBs if they occur too close to the HOD/LOD or the edge of the ADR.

Additionally, rather than take a flat TP amount, I am looking to take profit at the next major area of S/R, including the important EMAs (50/200/800), HOD/LOD, ADR or the next S/R line. I often still move the SL up to BE if the trade goes 1:1 or better, but I want to let the trade run for greater R:R, usually 1:3.

I am having much more success on the 15m charts than I ever did on the 1m and 5m charts and I get plenty of trades to keep me busy across the ten pairs I chart.

Hey Tailgun. Can I ask what's flag SUBs ?

Ugh, sorry guys. I have been following this thread as well the flag trading. Wrong reply.

Was wondering what that was

Take a look at these daily commentaries, they are talking about the same level counts and trap moves:
March 23th
March 22nd
March 21st

Some of their terminology should be familiar:

Level 3 Price Action- The price action when it has reached the 3rd level of the Smart Money trend. Typically seen as choppy back and forth price movement and will often have a H&S pattern or a large M or W formation before the reversal.

Manipulation- The process by which the banks and large institutions get traders to sell when they want to buy and vice versa. As they accumulate they need traders to take the other side of the position. This takes convincing traders to think price is going up so they can sell, thus they need traders to buy. A stop run and finally when the need to create the belief in direction of the position they accumulated. This is also accomplished by starting false rumors.

Market Cycle- When the market finds support in a down move, comes up and forms a high then turns and makes a close below the previous low it found support at. Opposite for an up move

Smart Money- Mainly the 10 largest banks also including the large financial institutions. They are (in order) BNB Parabas, Royal bank of Scotland, Barclays, Deutsche Bank, HSBC Bank, Credit Agricole, Bank of America, Mitsubishi UFJ, JP Morgan Chase, and UBS AG. Institutions such as Goldman Sachs and bucket shop brokers also fit in there such as FXCM

Smart Money Sessions- The SM manipulators run in 3 shifts around the clock. The first starts at 5pm EST and runs until 1am EST when the next one comes online and runs until 9am EST

Smart Money Trend- Has nothing to do with the technical trend. The SM will push the markets in levels of 3. Once level 3 is finished they will most often reverse price. The only thing that trumps this trend is fundamentals. The SM will never be on the wrong side of those and they cannot manipulate the market long term.

SM Trend reset- Also know as a failed level 1. This occurs for longer term fundamental reasons. The SM does not want to be on the wrong side of the economics and given the right circumstance will reverse their position and continue the trend in the opposite direction of the level 1 rise/fall that was seen from level 3

Stop run- The last form of manipulation/accumulation where the Smart Money will shoot price above or below a level taking short term stop losses and/or get break out traders to enter a trade in the opposite direction as they accumulate more position size.

Trap move- When the Smart Money is trapping traders in the market in the wrong direction (will often occur at the same time as a stop run). They induce this buying or selling to turn the market against then and eventually hit their stop loss which will help push the market their intended direction.

Y ahtta's a pretty good site,they teach the M&W method a differently but same basic idea.

That is some good information. Kinda variation on a theme.

The thought does cross my mind that with the Market Makers methodology gaining in popularity I wonder how this might change the game. But then, Fear and Greed never change so we should have some play left yet ...

I don't think this method is as popular as what we think. We barely had 5-10 viewers at any time compared to over 200+ visitors/participants at other "Hottest" rated 5-Stars threads on this forum. The good trades are still there,

Thats good to know

Hi, made this trade on AU for 30 pips

Got the same trade too. Nice job!

Hey can someone tell me how to count the levels, what do I look for, which time frame and what to look at? Would greatly appreciate it. If somone has a link of some sort to point me to , that would be great.

Try drawing boxes on 60mins chart, it is one of the procedures taught by a course instructor. You can also draw boxes on 15mins chart but make sure you span 3-5 days view when you want to analyze the levels. Below are couple of examples (these are TradeStation charts).

GBP/JPY showed a continuation W-pattern (see TDI signature also) at 6:30amET, good for +70pips long. Aided by BoJ rumors at 8:32amET.

http://i.imgur.com/3hbpi.png

Can try to pick the top around 10amET, and short it down for another 40-50pips.