Cautionary message:
We encourage our readers to invest carefully and to utilize the information available at the web sites of the large Forex brokerage firms. We encourage you to get personal advice from your professional investment advisor and to make independent investigations before acting on information that we publish. We do not in any way warrant or guarantee the success of any action which you take in reliance on our statements.
___________________________
The impossible takes a few weeks to achieve
Dear traders,
As we have tried to make clear throughout this thread, we are not providing a signal service to anyone, either free or for a charge.
We are in the process of performing an experiment employing two very complex analytical models, which we are in the process of learning and familiarising ourselves with.
We are attempting to generate tradable signals which provide a healthy rate of return. Our approach involves accurately predicting both endpoints of major trends or swings, which is no small feat. When there is an upwards trend, we try to predict the exact top of that trend. The opposite for a downwards trend. We then advise to trade AGAINST the trend (in violation of the cardinal rule of currency trading) with a small stop. We then put our target very far away. Even if we are successful, the signals are likely to fail most of the time. But because of the high reward / risk ratios, even a few successes can result in a quite high overall performance.
When we have completed our studies and experiments, then we will decide what the next course of action will be.
The results of the first 39 trades were promising. (In spite of only about 30% successful trades, 15,000 times multiplication of capital based on a 25% risk factor). We have not yet analysed the performance of the subsequent trades.
We will post them here when we have completed our detailed analysis. Our impression is that the results are somewhat consistent with the earlier set.
Note that we are attempting the near impossible - accurately predicting both endpoints of trends. To do this even once is a virtual miracle. To do it repeatedly is the "Holy Grail" of the entire investment community, which consists of literally millions of professional traders working full time for decades both independently and for a myriad of corporations and financial institutions.
The implications of perfect success would be that we could more than double our capital daily. If this is achieved, if we started with $10 K, then we would earn all the money in the entire planet in about 5 weeks.
So please indulge us. The near impossible we can do quite fast, but the impossible takes a little longer.
I assure you that we are learning alot each and every day.
In the meantime, treat each of our trade recommendations with a healthy amount of skepticism.
If there is any aspect of our approach that makes sense to you, then we encourage you to apply it in your own trading system.
If our trade recommendations help people to identify and confirm good trades themselves, then we will be happy to have helped out.
For the present, you should not trade our signals with real money. It is still too early on in the experiment.
About 24,000 people have visited this thread since it started five weeks ago in a humble start in the classified section. About 1,000 different new people visit this thread each day. I assume that they are finding some value here.
I think that what they like is that we are trying to predict the swings in the market, not just scalping a few pips here and there. The other important contribution we are making is to emphasise the importance of the reward : risk ratio as a vital factor in a trading program. The third good thing about our thread is that we are quite organised and systematic in the way we present our trade signals.
Note that none of the three things that I think are attractive about our thread involves being correct in our trade signals. Even if we were never successful in a single trade prediction , I still think that the three above factors make our experiment helpful. But the fact is that occassionally we are correct in our trade signals. Whether this is just blind luck, or the result of a robust system, only time will tell.
We welcome your comments and suggestions.
Best regards,
Itme
_________________________________________________
First trade signal:
Due to the phase incoherence of EUR/USD and USD/CAD, the following possible trade opportunity has arisen.
Sell EUR/CAD at 1.4240
estimated opportunity time May 5 at 9:00 ET
Stop loss is 1.4290 plus spread
Target is 1.3770
Estimated duration of trade is 72 hours
Anticipated reward is 470 pips
Risk is about 60 pips including spread
Reward : Risk ratio is about 8:1
We encourage our readers to invest carefully and to utilize the information available at the web sites of the large Forex brokerage firms. We encourage you to get personal advice from your professional investment advisor and to make independent investigations before acting on information that we publish. We do not in any way warrant or guarantee the success of any action which you take in reliance on our statements.
___________________________
The impossible takes a few weeks to achieve
Dear traders,
As we have tried to make clear throughout this thread, we are not providing a signal service to anyone, either free or for a charge.
We are in the process of performing an experiment employing two very complex analytical models, which we are in the process of learning and familiarising ourselves with.
We are attempting to generate tradable signals which provide a healthy rate of return. Our approach involves accurately predicting both endpoints of major trends or swings, which is no small feat. When there is an upwards trend, we try to predict the exact top of that trend. The opposite for a downwards trend. We then advise to trade AGAINST the trend (in violation of the cardinal rule of currency trading) with a small stop. We then put our target very far away. Even if we are successful, the signals are likely to fail most of the time. But because of the high reward / risk ratios, even a few successes can result in a quite high overall performance.
When we have completed our studies and experiments, then we will decide what the next course of action will be.
The results of the first 39 trades were promising. (In spite of only about 30% successful trades, 15,000 times multiplication of capital based on a 25% risk factor). We have not yet analysed the performance of the subsequent trades.
We will post them here when we have completed our detailed analysis. Our impression is that the results are somewhat consistent with the earlier set.
Note that we are attempting the near impossible - accurately predicting both endpoints of trends. To do this even once is a virtual miracle. To do it repeatedly is the "Holy Grail" of the entire investment community, which consists of literally millions of professional traders working full time for decades both independently and for a myriad of corporations and financial institutions.
The implications of perfect success would be that we could more than double our capital daily. If this is achieved, if we started with $10 K, then we would earn all the money in the entire planet in about 5 weeks.
So please indulge us. The near impossible we can do quite fast, but the impossible takes a little longer.
I assure you that we are learning alot each and every day.
In the meantime, treat each of our trade recommendations with a healthy amount of skepticism.
If there is any aspect of our approach that makes sense to you, then we encourage you to apply it in your own trading system.
If our trade recommendations help people to identify and confirm good trades themselves, then we will be happy to have helped out.
For the present, you should not trade our signals with real money. It is still too early on in the experiment.
About 24,000 people have visited this thread since it started five weeks ago in a humble start in the classified section. About 1,000 different new people visit this thread each day. I assume that they are finding some value here.
I think that what they like is that we are trying to predict the swings in the market, not just scalping a few pips here and there. The other important contribution we are making is to emphasise the importance of the reward : risk ratio as a vital factor in a trading program. The third good thing about our thread is that we are quite organised and systematic in the way we present our trade signals.
Note that none of the three things that I think are attractive about our thread involves being correct in our trade signals. Even if we were never successful in a single trade prediction , I still think that the three above factors make our experiment helpful. But the fact is that occassionally we are correct in our trade signals. Whether this is just blind luck, or the result of a robust system, only time will tell.
We welcome your comments and suggestions.
Best regards,
Itme
_________________________________________________
First trade signal:
Due to the phase incoherence of EUR/USD and USD/CAD, the following possible trade opportunity has arisen.
Sell EUR/CAD at 1.4240
estimated opportunity time May 5 at 9:00 ET
Stop loss is 1.4290 plus spread
Target is 1.3770
Estimated duration of trade is 72 hours
Anticipated reward is 470 pips
Risk is about 60 pips including spread
Reward : Risk ratio is about 8:1
