Buy sell line trading

looks like all of you are seasoned trader, fantastic!

So what exactly is the criteria for that? And specificly - why did you chose to trade EUR/CHF - it didnt seem to be trending the past two weeks?
Thanks!

yeah I agree, right now I wouldn't touch ECHF, but many do like it, so i thought i would include it..

I was just trying to show how you could of stuck rigidly to the rules this week and the strategy would of given you a healthy return.

I certainly didn't take them all, I work 6 days a week running a business so I took what I could and made a decent profit...

My view. altho 4 hour works the best. those bullish engulfings breaking higher I call them effort to rise. Watch the price in the future where the bar closed. just put a line there on your 4 hour chart and see how price reacts in the future.
Many times your first entry for continnuation of the trend, second is in the 50% ret area with stop below the bar.

here is AU 4 hour.

Entry 1 for agressive trades, Entry 2 for conservative but could be left out.

And here is one that didn't worked out. remember sometime you really have to cut your loss. at least if you where fast it would have worked with 1 trade only for TP1 the 161.

60minuteman I am going to overtake your thread. MU HA HA HA HAAAA

Just kidding you. :-)

Anyway my view for UJ. next week. The only little problem I have is that the bar right after the drop didn't went lower. but still RR is still better than 1:1

Hi Hutrader,

yeah using fibs and entering on a retrace will work too, in fact all of the basic technical ideas will work, but you have to have a plan and stick to it... thats why most traders fail.

with regards UJ... its going to be a while before I go short on any Yen crosses, just about the weakest currency out there at the moment, we may well see a correction, but my rules state long only, and i don't break rules anymore, thats why im consistent..

http://www.forexfactory.com/news.php?do=news&id=348550

True, stay with the trend but this time we made a lower high and that second candle will be important IMO. But we'll see what the yields will do next week.
The fibs are good for the targets mainly. retrace is one thing but mainly for your imminent target as I believe many people have difficulties exiting their trade. Many people lose cause they exit to early. Fibs are powerfull and this way you just set your SL to BE+2 and the fib levels are good exit points.

yeah fibs can be good targets, i traded them solidly for a year, theres a great bunch of skilled fib traders over on skunny's indicator free trading thread...

Hi 60,

Thank you very much for you thread. A few years ago I read that Pro Traders only need one indicator and PA.......I' m sure this is the way to go.

Just 1 tool, maybe someone could find it usefull:

1.- Easy Order: you select type order, risk% and the script plots on your chart an Open Price, TP and SL line. You place them correctly and when you click the order you have automatically the correct lot size.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=281772

Thanks again.

Let me answer this very common question - does the order the wins and losses come in matter or not? The short answer is NO. If you risk the same percentage of the current account on each trade it doesn't matter if you have 3 wins first followed by 3 losses, or 3 losses followed by 3 wins, or any other combination of those.

The math behind it is very simple. Let's say your current account balance is B and your risk per trade is k (for example k=2%, or 0.02). If your RR ratio is 1:1 the new balance is B(1+k) if you win and B(1-k) if you lose. Let's say it was a loss, so you are at B(1-k). Now if your second trade is a win you get the new balance at B(1-k)(1+k). If the first trade is a win and the second one is a loss you would get B(1+k)(1-k), which is exactly the same.

Unfortunately that number is smaller than B because (1+k)(1-k)=1-k^2-2k is below 1. In general if you have a number of w wins and l losses your final balance will be B(1+k)^w(1-k)^l regardless of the order.

It's not fair, is it? You risk 2% per trade let's say ... you win one, then lose one ... and you have a net loss. If you lose first, then win, same deficit. To avoid this nasty asymmetry many traders use a slightly different approach. They don't change the amount they risk per trade after each trade. They keep it constant for a number of trades, or a number of days, or as long as their equity doesn't go above or below a certain level. For example as long as they have anywhere between $10,000 and 11,000 they risk exactly $200 per trade. If things go well and their balance gets to 11,000 they will risk $220 per trade, and keep it that way until 12,000 is reached. If the equity falls below 10,000, then it's $180 per trade (then below 9,000 it would be $160 and so on).

Hi lazypawn, yeah this is the approach I use, which makes sense anyway because you will have to round up or down if you calculate risk on your balance every trade... So I use the same amount for every trade until the next threshold is achieved.

what I will add too, is that I think my risk is too high, done alot of research and I think the smart way to go is 1% per trade...

....trading at 2 or 3% is too much....imho

NoJobRob

Good one!
Is there an option to remove the wording?

You know, I like that idea. Stand by.

Here ya go.

First of all thanks a lot for an inspiring and easy to follow system.

I'm doing sort of backtesting today, and I find this chart little disturbing. According to the rules of the system the only valid entry point is the one marked by check mark? Or am I wrong?

Wow, finally I've read the whole thread (taking breaks for Primo webinars ) and I must admit that it seems to be a great system. Although it looks like it is very simple (yes it is!) it is still not mechanical and we must always be aware of basic price action, multitimeframe analysis, s/r, daily ranges, pivots etc. to improve our edge. I'll follow the discussion.
Good trades everyone,

Tak

Hi Reputake, first welcome, glad you like the ideas...

yes if you stick to the rules that is the entry, i think the long tail candle a bit further on also is valid...

a really good trader once said to me, if no opportunity exists, sit on your hands and wait... sometimes thats just what you have to do.

Remember the reason this strategy is consistent is because the rules force you to wait for a low risk, high probability trade, the 50 sma keeps you in the direction of the prevailing trend, then the price action forces us to wait for a retrace and for that retrace to end....

On the chart we can see a strong trend up, we could just jump on mid trend but that is risky, you can guarantee as soon as you jump on the retrace will start and then youre sat in negative waiting for it to end.. so we have to wait for the retrace, then the price action signal... the rules are there to protect your account.

Remember you can always switch to another pair to find your opportunity or another TF... and personally, H4 is more reliable to trade than H1...

If you look at my earlier post on last weeks H4 set ups, over 12 pairs there were 28 trades last week, thats only 5 signals a day.... which is great, a strategy that gives you hundreds of signals is going to be too hectic, you will make mistakes and be glued to the charts for hours everyday... keep your trading simple, calm and easy to repeat and the money will come...

good trading and move to H4... i fall into the H1 trap all the time, its impatience and greed taking over..