GBP/USD and EUR/USD

EU has come back to 1.3180 again. here is still the resistance area.the 365ema.even shorting here is risky , my sl at 1.3190. the main trend is down ,in the short term, 1.3120 is the key point now .


on the other hand ,the usd index is still bullish on h4 time frame. it now pull back to the trend line area ,maybe it will go up again .



just my opinion .enjoy your weekend .

Welcome...

Glad to see you again and feel Free like your home, Bro

Hello Tsar,

thank you for your invitation. Since I am at the moment a bit time limited, I am not sure if I can contribute much regarding GBPUSD. But for EURUSD here we go:


Murrey Math update


H1

on 1h TF we had a strong bull move, which traveled 9 octave lines. With price now at 8/8 line, chances are very high >97% that we will see a retracement/reversal here. Price may shoot/overshoot for 3199 or 3214 before we will see a drop.

If the following drop is only a retracement, it should stall at 3153 or 3138


For a bearish move support is between 3123 and 3062 at various levels. Break of 3046 will lead to more downside.



H4

On H4 we turned at the 2/8 line to the north. That can be judged as bullish and the move down to 3000 may eventually only be a corrective move to the downside.

Since then price has traveled 6 octave lines up, hanging now at the 8/8 line.

Chance for a reversal/retrace here is fairly high, but may run further up to 3214 or 3245


Area for a retracement is 3153 and 3123, with emphasis on 3153




D1

On dailys Thursdays upmove produced an outside candle, which itself was bullish and produced a continuation of this bullish move to the projected 3184. Next stopping point to the uper side is 3245 and 3306. Break of 3306 can easily lead to 3368 and 3428.

Price on daily got rejected at 1/8 level at 3001. If this is only a retracement, we normally see a move over 3-4 octave lines in the other direction. So target for such a move is 3184 to 3245, overshoot to 3306 possible.


W1


On W1 we reversed at the 0/8 line at 2695 to the upper side.

If the move up is only a retracement, it should run 3-4 octave lines, before reversing down.

With that said, bullish potential to 3428 (where we actual reversed) or 3671


Targets to the lower side are 2451 (-1/8) and 2207 (-2/8) with more bearish potential thereafter.

If price should manage a full bull move (less likely right now) targets would be 4648- 4892



monthly

Since nearly two month we are hovering around the 3/8 level at 3184

Next level on the upper side is 3672 as 4/8 and 2695 as 2/8


Both have equal chances of being reached now.





Elliott Wave


H1 and H4

On 1h TF the picture regarding the strong move up is not that clear as I stated at Friday evening, when one throws in momentum and the 4h TF.

Maybe the wave, starting at 3049, started with an 1-2,1-2 move, then we would need now 4-5, 4-5 move to complete the sequence. That would fit better with the view on 4h TF, where we need one more push high to complete an impulse

The question thereafter is, if the whole move up from the 3003 starting point is an ABC move, or if a full impulse will build.

End of such an ABC move will likely be 3214 or 3245

End of a full impulse will be around 3245 and 3305

Fib relation of this ABC move:

at around 3199 C = 1.27x A

at around 3235 C = 1.618x A


D1

We have two options here:


Variant A


This is my main view

the impulse down from 348x ended at 3096. Since then we are in an ABC-flat.

This counts very well on 4h chart as well, as I presented already. See chart below.

In this ABC-flat we are now in the C-wave impulse, which should last for one more day and lead us to 3245 to 3306 for an expanded flat.


Variant B

The whole move down from 3486 to 3303 can be judged as completed impulse now.

The move down lasted a fib 13 days. The ongoing correction to the upper side so far lasts 2 days. So chances are fairly high, that we will see over the next days some up and down hovering, maybe with more upside.


Either correction ended here at 38.2 retracement, or we build a more complex one:

a) ABC-flat, where the move up so far is the zigzag leg wave A of the flat.

Then we should go down from here to around 3062 - 3031 (wave B), and the following C wave impulse should carry us back to at least 3184, or as expanded flat to 3306 to 3367


b) ABC zigzag

Then we should see the termination of the upward impulse at around 3245 to 3306 (wave A), with emphasis on 3245, then retracement to around 3123 for wave B. Wave C should terminate then at 3306 to 3367.


Important notice:

Since we are, out of my EW sight, either in a wave 2 up of a wave C down, or in a wave 2 up of a wave 3 down, every corrective attempt can be short lived and perform only short durations or low retracements.





Fibs


So far we have exactly retraced 38% of the whole downmove.

50% at around 3245

61.8% at around 3300

74.6% at around 3362






Conclusion:


A break of 3245 will open upside for 3306 and eventually 3427

A break of 3123 will open 3061. A break of 3061 may give way to a test of the low at 3003, or even more downside to 2939.


For the first hours of Sundays trading I await a corrective move towards 3153 to 3138 (emphasis on 3153). After that completion of impulsive move towards 3214 to 3245

To preserve a short term bullish move, price should not drop below 3123

Only a move above 3367 will dampen further bearish ambitions, especially movement above 3428. Break of 3427 opens 3671 with possibly more bullish potential there after.





Trading proposal:


Sunday night:

long @ 3153
long @ 3138


SL for this positions @ 3117 or defensive just below 3138

TP @ 3210 and 3240

short @ 3210 (1/10)
short @ 3240 (2/10)
short @ 3299 (2/10)
short @ 3359 (3/10)


Have a nice weekend and good luck next week,

Markus

Amazing analysis Markus

Never really looked at elliot wave theory however I've just done a bit of looking and its quite easy to spot it on the bigger timeframes, going on the weekly, it looks like its in a downmove, put a fib from the last swing high to the most recent swing low and you can see it has bounced off the 50% level then retraced up slightly from the 23.6 so depending on how this week ends, could be the start of an upmove...

Well thats my analysis, simple and to the point, have a good weekend!

Sir, I really appreciate your arrival and expect your Contribution in Here

Hope you're willing to provide direction and guidance to us.
Because you're the One of Best 'Elliot Wave' Trader. And one Senior who must respect

Thank you...


Best Regards,
Tsar

hard work neh my brother this one

Thank you FX :-)

Hi Tsar,

thank you very much for your kind words. well appreciated.

No, no, do not only respect what I say - in the end I am a nobody like all the other traders - better to question my analysis.

You know: one builds a model, a count etc. and tries to stay objective. But that is not ever possible, because we are all human beings. And the better and obvious the count looks, the harder is the fall sometimes

The direction of the markets is not made out of the big timeframes. Social mood (and some very hard fundamentals like interest hikes etc) move the markets (at least when you are a Elliottican), and social mod changes first on the small TF's.

That means: our count can stay true over days, weeks, months, but when social mood decides other, you end up in a wrong count.

Complacency in trading will cost us, at the end, a lot of money.

So take my analysis with a grain of salt and question it whenever you see fit.


There is nobody here in FF who has all the wisdom, or THE wisdom at all.



Looking forward to see how this place will develope,

best to you all,


Markus

Seriously,your post just makes me fall in love with you ya
Markus,would be very much interested and appreciate if can know your trading journey/history


Thanks

Interesting statements:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zRO7z...layer_embedded

nice thread and keep the thread clean bro ................

i am in ....

Hi FX,


I started my trading journey (more investing) in 1990, the usual way with funds etc.

Then 1996 I made a step forward and invested in high tech companies: fibre optics, bio-tec, patent-licensing companies - only to name a few.

I got more and more involved with companies which had legal issues with other companies about patent-licensing. So I grew to kind of specialist for such companies.

A few years ago I got contact to Elliott wave. The reason was, that I got my hands on Robert Prechters Book "The deflation handbook" and "Gold and Silver Handbook". First I was not interested in Eliott Wave, but Prechters market theory of deflation was totally sound to me. This two books changed my Investment-Life to a traders life, since I got more and more involved into Elliott-wave.

I followed each and every EW-blog on the internet and learned Elliott wave mainly by following some great minds of Elliott Wave.

At this point I did not think about daytrading, swing trading or scalping, but with time, and my ability to use Elliott wave, the idea was born to try my luck with active trading.

First I traded the SP500 future, but after a short time I switched to Forex because of the liquidity of the market and the possibility to trade it 24h a day.

So I was/I am able to trade the markets in accordance with my day job.

Over the last 4-5 years I worked on my method, reworked it, build a new etc.

Two years ago I had kind of break down in my profitability, because I changed to many parameters at the same time, ending with a complete different method, account size, risk etc. Was a terrible time. So I had to rebuild my original system back. Since then all is good again

The condensate of this finding process was a method, where EW is my strategy, Murrey Math my tactic, and momentum considerations my supportive.

Right now I think about upgrading Murrey Math to my strategy, and EW downgrading to tactic, but can not make up my mind LOL

I think I will leave it that way it is. Never change a winning team.


Mostly I "scalp" or "mini-swing" the M5/M15 TF with entry optimization on 1min TF. On M5 I look for 8-20 pips movements, on M15 30-60pips.

My philosophy here is: "Every trade starts with a scalp" - that means: I start every trade with a setup on M5 TF, and when I see fit I will transfer it to M15 TF or even higher. The advantage is, that you start your trade with little risk but literally unlimited profit outlook.

Normally I only post trades/setups, which are suitable to be transfered to M15, M60, or sometimes M240.

For posting my scalps or micro swings I have normally no time.


Important lesson:

never stop learning

and

never give up


It takes some time to get profitable. But then it is definitively rewarding.

Most of the time it is not our system which keeps us from being profitable, it is us, our psyche, our greed and our fear.

additional EW considerations:

EW update

We have ended an impulse down. Question is, if the impulse down ended already at the shown location at 3085, or somewhere between 3085 and the real low at 3003.

Different TF's offer different solutions, so I am not sure about this.

When wave red 1 ended at 3085, the following corrective wave is an ABC-flat, where the C-wave impulse is in the making.

On the presented 4h TF the wave 3 of this wave C is in subwave 4 (which may terminate at around 3153 - 3138), so subwave 5 may terminate at around 3214.

After that wave 4 of the C-wave impulse may lead us down to 3169 - 3153 - 3138 again.

Wave 5 of the C-wave impulse may bring us up to 3245 (which is 50% retracement of the whole move down) or to 3301 (which is 62% retracement as well as C = 2.62x A, and the test of the lower base channel line of the corrective wave blue B.

It is likely, that this whole move up is only the first wave in a bigger corrective scheme.

There is a slight chance, that the abc-move (up) is a wxy-move. In this case, 3187 could mean the (temporary) top of the correction.

Bersih2 maksudnya nih pak iqyu,btw long time no see

awesome amazing spectacular and love germany ya bro,tbh hope to see your contribution always in here

Welcome, Bro

I will keep this thread Clean and include Muppets to Ignore List
Start from Today...

make it exclusive

EW Count GBPUSD

is that me ? just kidding hehe..

permisi kulonuwun.. my 1st post here.
congratulation on your new thread Tsar.

my view on GU daily. interesting trading week to come.
.