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Long term fundamental trading

  • #1
  • First Post: Feb 26, 2012 10:30am Feb 26, 2012 10:30am
This forum needs a thread where people can discuss long term fundamental setups and I couldn't find such a thread so here it is.
If slaughterhouses had glass walls, everyone would be a vegetarian!
  • #2
  • Feb 26, 2012 10:33am Feb 26, 2012 10:33am
NSD/USD might be a good carry trade candidate. The interest rate in USA is 0,25 and probably won't increase before 2014 The interest rate in New Zealand is 2,50 % and is expected to increase to 4 % in 2013.
If slaughterhouses had glass walls, everyone would be a vegetarian!
  • #3
  • Feb 26, 2012 11:12am Feb 26, 2012 11:12am
There seems to be a good thread here
  • #4
  • Feb 26, 2012 11:18am Feb 26, 2012 11:18am
Quoting pipmutt
There seems to be a good thread here
Yes but that is a trading journal=something you write for yourself. The purpose of this thread is to have a place where many different people can discuss what their sentiment is on the different currencies and learn from each other.
If slaughterhouses had glass walls, everyone would be a vegetarian!
  • #5
  • Feb 26, 2012 11:20am Feb 26, 2012 11:20am
Quoting Gambler180

Yes but that is a trading journal=something you write for yourself.
I think it's more a discussion isn't it?


Quoting Gambler180
What I hope to do is to have started a thread where many different people can discuss what their sentiment in on the different currencies and learn from each other.
Go for it!
  • #6
  • Feb 27, 2012 2:46am Feb 27, 2012 2:46am
My personal opinion is that very long-term trades are not trades but investment. With the ever increasing volatility of the Forex market even 1 400/500 pips movement here or there is immaterial. You just buy and sell and forget. Continuous discussions for such trades are not really possible or practical.

This is more a forum for the traders and hence on ongoing basis the discussions on trades which may span from a day to a few days or a couple of weeks make more sense then something which goes for a few months.

This is just an individual opinion and not an argument
  • #7
  • Feb 27, 2012 3:29am Feb 27, 2012 3:29am
i think there is an issue with the level of knowledge when it comes to fundamental forecasting.

for example, I know that NFP is the biggest mover of all data.

But how does NFP tie in with housing, PMI etc and how does that affect the economy still bewilders me. Also, how does 1 country's economy affect the others? Are other country's economic data important to analyze? If it is, where should we obtain these data? How much do we need to analyze before we say enough is enough?

In order for me to form a trading opinion, I need to at least understand the data that is presented to me... or at least be able to form some sort of model to guide me.

If you can do a tutorial on how to interpret what, I think a lot of people will appreciate it.
  • #8
  • Feb 27, 2012 3:42am Feb 27, 2012 3:42am
There's nothing wrong with long-term fx trading. A trade is a trade. How about shorting the yen? Let Kyle Bass tell you why in the following clip.

Inserted Video
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #9
  • Feb 27, 2012 11:52am Feb 27, 2012 11:52am
Quoting thelws
i think there is an issue with the level of knowledge when it comes to fundamental forecasting.

for example, I know that NFP is the biggest mover of all data.

But how does NFP tie in with housing, PMI etc and how does that affect the economy still bewilders me. Also, how does 1 country's economy affect the others? Are other country's economic data important to analyze? If it is, where should we obtain these data? How much do we need to analyze before we say enough is enough?

In order for me to form a trading opinion, I need to at least...
It is important to analyze other countries. For example you can't analyze Australia without looking at how it goes in China because Australia exports a lot of raw materials to china. If the economy in China slows down the same will probably happen in Australia.
If slaughterhouses had glass walls, everyone would be a vegetarian!
  • #10
  • Feb 29, 2012 7:14am Feb 29, 2012 7:14am
Quoting The Fool
There's nothing wrong with long-term fx trading. A trade is a trade. How about shorting the yen? Let Kyle Bass tell you why in the following clip.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WWgtzwqWh60
I have watched the video. Why would you buy a currency of a country with a positive current account balance that is in a period of shrinking population size, shrinking economy, and deflation? Remember that a bad economy can be bad for a currency but a very bad economy can be good.
If slaughterhouses had glass walls, everyone would be a vegetarian!
  • #11
  • Feb 29, 2012 8:36pm Feb 29, 2012 8:36pm
Quoting Gambler180
I have watched the video. Why would you buy a currency...
I said short the yen. Short means sell. Regarding reasons to do so, I can't explain anything better than Kyle Bass did.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #12
  • Mar 1, 2012 7:16am Mar 1, 2012 7:16am
Quoting The Fool
I said short the yen. Short means sell. Regarding reasons to do so, I can't explain anything better than Kyle Bass did.
I also meant sell. I don't know why I wrote buy. I can't see any reason to buy a currency that is in a period of deflation. The bank of Japan have an inflation target of 1 % but even if they reach that target most of the other major currencies have a higher inflation rate than that so JPY should increase in value against those currencies.
If slaughterhouses had glass walls, everyone would be a vegetarian!
  • #13
  • Mar 1, 2012 8:25pm Mar 1, 2012 8:25pm
Quoting Gambler180
I also meant sell. I don't know why I wrote buy. I can't see any reason to buy a currency that is in a period of deflation. The bank of Japan have an inflation target of 1 % but even if they reach that target most of the other major currencies have a higher inflation rate than that so JPY should increase in value against those currencies.
So I guess Japan's extreme high debt/GDP ratio and perticular demographic issues that spell very high sovereign credit default risk are details ou don't find compelling?

Sure, Kyle Bass could be dead wrong about Japan. Extreme financial xenophobia (almost all sovereign debt is bought in-country), highly geriatric population (>30% >age 65, aging, and getting smaller), blah blah blah, sure U/J could go to <60 this year because...they have a 1% inflation rate target?

And 0% yield, not likely to be raised .... ever. So, long term I am betting on the yen's decline.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #14
  • Mar 2, 2012 6:13am Mar 2, 2012 6:13am
Quoting The Fool
So I guess Japan's extreme high debt/GDP ratio and perticular demographic issues that spell very high sovereign credit default risk are details ou don't find compelling?

Sure, Kyle Bass could be dead wrong about Japan. Extreme financial xenophobia (almost all sovereign debt is bought in-country), highly geriatric population (>30% >age 65, aging, and getting smaller), blah blah blah, sure U/J could go to <60 this year because...they have a 1% inflation rate target?

And 0% yield, not likely to be raised .... ever. So, long term I am betting...
Maybe I'm wrong but doesn't a shrinking population mean that less people will loan money from the bank and that less money will be created? If less money is created shouldn't the currency be strong?
If slaughterhouses had glass walls, everyone would be a vegetarian!
  • #15
  • Mar 9, 2012 4:50pm Mar 9, 2012 4:50pm
Is it time to sell the Australian dollar? They have cut their interest rate and they have weak growth, falling trade balance, increasing current account deficit, falling inflation and the unemployment rate have also increased. The problems in Greece also affects the Australian economy. Are you also bearish on this currency?
If slaughterhouses had glass walls, everyone would be a vegetarian!
  • #16
  • Mar 9, 2012 5:42pm Mar 9, 2012 5:42pm
YES I agree with you...bearish at AUD
  • #17
  • Mar 10, 2012 1:00am Mar 10, 2012 1:00am
technically i'm pretty bear with AUD pairs also.. but the thing is that holding aud shorts over night can be pretty expensive.. I'd probably short intra days and not hold it overnight. its more expensive to roll than to open a new trade!
  • #18
  • Mar 17, 2012 4:59am Mar 17, 2012 4:59am
Quoting The Fool
There's nothing wrong with long-term fx trading. A trade is a trade. How about shorting the yen?
u/j up 750 pips in the last 6 weeks.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #19
  • May 22, 2012 8:21am May 22, 2012 8:21am
Quoting Gambler180
Is it time to sell the Australian dollar? They have cut their interest rate and they have weak growth, falling trade balance, increasing current account deficit, falling inflation and the unemployment rate have also increased. The problems in Greece also affects the Australian economy. Are you also bearish on this currency?
Since I wrote the comment above AUD/USD has fallen a lot. I hope everyone earned some money on this move.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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If slaughterhouses had glass walls, everyone would be a vegetarian!
  • #20
  • Nov 15, 2012 5:18pm Nov 15, 2012 5:18pm
Keep an eye on the Australian interest rates. If they continue to cut them the Australian dollar will probably fall.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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If slaughterhouses had glass walls, everyone would be a vegetarian!
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