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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #32,141
  • Edited 1:30pm Mar 15, 2012 1:21pm | Edited 1:30pm
Here is some of that cowboy music I promised ya Fti. He was a world champ bronc rider.

Great day. Been making some nice pips and now gonna have a few cold ones and cook a brisket on the grill. The boys are on spring break.


Inserted Video
  • #32,142
  • Mar 15, 2012 1:44pm Mar 15, 2012 1:44pm
Here is some more

Inserted Video


One of my favorites.

Inserted Video


More.

Inserted Video


Inserted Video


Inserted Video


Inserted Video


Guess thats enough for now. Hope all enjoy some music from my past.
  • #32,143
  • Mar 15, 2012 2:21pm Mar 15, 2012 2:21pm
[quote=tubguy;5481026]Here is some of that cowboy music I promised ya Fti. He was a world champ bronc rider.

Great day. Been making some nice pips and now gonna have a few cold ones and cook a brisket on the grill. The boys are on spring break.


Hi Mike,

Sorry off topic, but what's the meat temp for brisket? I just overcooked 2 in the Bradley. Meat temp was 195f. Came out hard and dry.
Best time killer while waiting for trading opportunities. Love the taste of brisket.

zz
  • #32,144
  • Mar 15, 2012 3:02pm Mar 15, 2012 3:02pm
[quote=zoomzoom;5481176]
Quoting tubguy
Here is some of that cowboy music I promised ya Fti. He was a world champ bronc rider.

Great day. Been making some nice pips and now gonna have a few cold ones and cook a brisket on the grill. The boys are on spring break.


Hi Mike,

Sorry off topic, but what's the meat temp for brisket? I just overcooked 2 in the Bradley. Meat temp was 195f. Came out hard and dry.
Best time killer while waiting for trading opportunities. Love the taste of brisket.

zz

Gotta cook it low and slow. Sounds like you may have cooked it to fast. Keep the grill at about 200f -250f. for about an hour per pound of meat. Also, make sure that it is not directly over the heat source. Should be to the side of it. Basically, you are making your pit an oven. I like to sear it for a few minutes over the heat and then move it away and just let it do it"s thing till it is done. The internal temp is not important if you do it this way. It will be done.

Just keep in mind, I'm no expert. But low and slow will always make a good decent piece of meat.

Good luck with the next one. Hope this helps some.

Good Trading
Mike
  • #32,145
  • Mar 15, 2012 5:24pm Mar 15, 2012 5:24pm
[quote=tubguy;5481278]
Quoting zoomzoom


Gotta cook it low and slow. Sounds like you may have cooked it to fast. Keep the grill at about 200f -250f. for about an hour per pound of meat. Also, make sure that it is not directly over the heat source. Should be to the side of it. Basically, you are making your pit an oven. I like to sear it for a few minutes over the heat and then move it away and just let it do it"s thing till it is done. The internal temp is not important if you do it this way. It will be done.

Just keep in mind, I'm no expert. But low and...
Hi Mike,

Thanks for the prompt reply. I think you're perfectly right, I was relying too much on getting the right meat temp and in the process overcooking it, making it hard and dry. Yea the next time i'll just go by feel, like trading. not forgetting the "low and slow".

cheers

zz
  • #32,146
  • Edited 2:31am Mar 16, 2012 1:59am | Edited 2:31am
Quoting tubguy
Here is some of that cowboy music I promised ya Fti. He was a world champ bronc rider.

Great day. Been making some nice pips and now gonna have a few cold ones and cook a brisket on the grill. The boys are on spring break.


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BoR6V2AQpQo
wow, thats the life.
charbroiled steak medium rear and some cold beers wash in down.
campfire at dusk with the boys in open grasslands?
Sing cowboy songs, square dances.
latenight dirty dancing too?
that's the life. wow.
now where should i park my caravan?
oh, no need park, is in my mind.


regards

Inserted Video


for the rest of us, not doing any dirty dancing, here the dance of the day.
every big guns all eyeing the 1.3000 for cheap.
there's loads interested parties there.

there is market talk that some rich slicks( the oily kind) is thinking that the cable is under-valued. And is considered cheap and sovereign investables.
But thats only the terrain, the timing of investing is critical.
  • #32,147
  • Mar 16, 2012 2:34am Mar 16, 2012 2:34am
[quote=zoomzoom;5481579]
Quoting tubguy

Hi Mike,

Thanks for the prompt reply. I think you're perfectly right, I was relying too much on getting the right meat temp and in the process overcooking it, making it hard and dry. Yea the next time i'll just go by feel, like trading. not forgetting the "low and slow".

cheers

zz

which currency is in the oven ?

regards
  • #32,148
  • Mar 16, 2012 3:22am Mar 16, 2012 3:22am
Quoting tubguy
Here is some of that cowboy music I promised ya Fti. He was a world champ bronc rider.

Great day. Been making some nice pips and now gonna have a few cold ones and cook a brisket on the grill. The boys are on spring break.


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BoR6V2AQpQo
chewing smokes.
my dad used to like chews too. not smokes.
after a good smoking, he likes chew the beetle nuts leafs with that white stuff (i not know what is called, he speaks tamil, so is in tamil) .Only tamil i know is , Yo, tambi. The result is the mouth turn all red.Like as if one just bite a chunk of meat off someone.
ai ya for girls would be nice makes lips nice red and sexy. No need for lipsticks. Unfortunately girls not like the minty chew.

Maybe if i can't smoke anymore, I'll try chews.: rofl:

thanks nice yeeha rocks and rolls.

regards
  • #32,149
  • Mar 16, 2012 4:47am Mar 16, 2012 4:47am
Quoting tubguy
Here is some more

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x3FqjzPmw7U

One of my favorites.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vQPRFqWPWgE

More.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Er0yQrhUypc

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WSKXJs_cBVQ

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6yDiH7QrVf0

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iIOVSr8UOxQ

Guess thats enough for now. Hope all enjoy some music from my past.
great. thanks.

i learned Chris LeDoux debut from his truck made his way to the labels.
He sings good about living and i guess he must had enjoyed his living before kicking the bucket in 2005. Rest in peace, was good man.
I like a man with strong sense of doing whatever one must do.
reflects in his songs. He must be writing his own lyrics.
The journey is no smooth always, but that what make it worthwhile.

Thanks tubguy.

regards
  • #32,150
  • Mar 16, 2012 5:21am Mar 16, 2012 5:21am
they tried a number on the ec (euro cable) crosses.
may try again 0.83 would be interesting.
also 1.3 e and 1.55c, so 0.8350 is very pivotal.
euro yen is mixed in range and euro aud is bottoming.
But is hard see euro have much strength up, until all this eu thingy gets resolved.
but heli most certainly can help with his QE3 stuff.
ECB had stopped her LTRO stuff, need see the impact. I just feel is not so clever, give free money.
But surely cannot allow the banks fails.
all already have nice hircut by greese.
reminds me , I need haircut too.


regards
  • #32,151
  • Mar 16, 2012 5:38am Mar 16, 2012 5:38am
chief thanks for information.

if i could know hmmmm some flexible parameters to define a range.

regards
  • #32,152
  • Mar 16, 2012 6:16am Mar 16, 2012 6:16am
Quoting cuthbert
chief thanks for information.

if i could know hmmmm some flexible parameters to define a range.

regards
there no definable definations.
Is the range of the congestion( distribution).
sometimes it slides up sometimes down, dependant on the cross winds.
but generally is the congestion range. And congestion ranges like work in 30% to 50% ratios of legs.
Otherwise i would read that there is abnormalities winds, and need check the news wires.
  • #32,153
  • Edited 6:44am Mar 16, 2012 6:21am | Edited 6:44am
ECB’s Liikanen signals nations shouldn’t expect further ECB action – Bloomberg

ok then would need look to buba for lead.
but surely ECB will come on spot light if the euro dives again.

regards

I remembers this nice song from tubguy from long long ago.
Is how trading should be. We make tons decisions daily. Just need the mindset stable make good ones and less bad ones. Don't even try be a perfectionist, is not possible. Only excellence.
But please remember learn from greece for your personal portfolios.
Debt is a monster. Debt is a bon only with the supporting productivity. Otherwise is the knifethat cuts throats. Please remember, live within means. So no wear a hat that too big for you head, beware when strong winds comes.




Inserted Video
  • #32,154
  • Mar 16, 2012 6:22am Mar 16, 2012 6:22am
chief thanks again

regards
  • #32,155
  • Edited 7:35am Mar 16, 2012 6:55am | Edited 7:35am
Euro zone may raise bailout fund capacity to near 700 bln euros -officials

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/...8EG1AH20120316

so what does this means?
it means they gonna put 700 yards on the market.
Means we gonna have enough all share it.
thanks, i will put best effort get it.

Lots peeps and politics and big guns will be trying break into the vaults, so watch your behind.
No stand in front of tanks. steal the loot from behind and inside with you dance. Be a gentleman. What ever you do be tactful and do not ever look as if you was a bandit. Some may try behave like needy to open the vaults, so please use your god given senses.

Ok now for the assault of the house on the hill. Bayonets on helmets secured. Keep heads down, crawl, no be a dead hero, and keep moving. Be nimble. BATTLESTATIONS.


regards

no care if e is 1.50 or 1.00 if 1.5 i want go long
  • #32,156
  • Mar 16, 2012 9:00am Mar 16, 2012 9:00am
no greed
took profits
squared
  • #32,157
  • Mar 16, 2012 9:02am Mar 16, 2012 9:02am
Quoting fti
ECB’s Liikanen signals nations shouldn’t expect further ECB action – Bloomberg

ok then would need look to buba for lead.
but surely ECB will come on spot light if the euro dives again.

regards

I remembers this nice song from tubguy from long long ago.
Is how trading should be. We make tons decisions daily. Just need the mindset stable make good ones and less bad ones. Don't even try be a perfectionist, is not possible. Only excellence.
But please remember learn from greece for your personal portfolios.
Debt is a monster. Debt...

One of my favorite songs ever!
  • #32,158
  • Mar 16, 2012 10:51am Mar 16, 2012 10:51am
Quoting fti
for the rest of us, not doing any dirty dancing, here the dance of the day.
every big guns all eyeing the 1.3000 for cheap.
there's loads interested parties there.

there is market talk that some rich slicks( the oily kind) is thinking that the cable is under-valued. And is considered cheap and sovereign investables.
But thats only the terrain, the timing of investing is critical.
Bravo Chief, good judgement. By the time I finished the work the game is over, but guess what, my long scout gave me 100+pips so no worries as closed the game.
  • #32,159
  • Mar 16, 2012 11:18am Mar 16, 2012 11:18am
Quoting fti
Euro zone may raise bailout fund capacity to near 700 bln euros -officials

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/...8EG1AH20120316

so what does this means?
it means they gonna put 700 yards on the market.
Means we gonna have enough all share it.
thanks, i will put best effort get it.

Lots peeps and politics and big guns will be trying break into the vaults, so watch your behind.
No stand in front of tanks. steal the loot from behind and inside with you dance. Be a gentleman. What ever you do be...
Thanks Chief.

zz
  • #32,160
  • Mar 16, 2012 3:55pm Mar 16, 2012 3:55pm
I just noticed your reply. I forgot that you were in stat arb, you a quant fti?

Yea I read Natenburg's book too. Problem with lots of the option models is that the math is derived wrong and then hidden by suddenly skipping topics without full rigor of the reason why they do what they do. I was reading over some of the OU processes for interest rate option models and it turns out they just toss an x in front of the weiner process to keep it from going to zero. No explanation. Current research in my class shows that if you do a log transform, you get a very different trajectory. This means that everyone trading off these common option models are way off the mark...scary

Lots of the use of options and pricing is now hidden, and few financial engineers have the original texts (none of them are willing to let any of the good ones out of their office). Worst of all, the new financial engineers follow the poor guidance and end up believing in the stuff, creating a generation of incorrectly programmed people.

I'd like to hear more about your stat arb experience if you are ok with that. I feel like that is one of the missing elements from your long history.


Quoting fti
This long sword methdology was conceptual from the CBOT/CME as they tried introduce the product. Although long existed in older portfolios for banking customers in the OTC forex the concepts were not wide spread, except for the elite traders.Is an old practise in London OTC forex where they called it options which was obligatory to be excersised only upon expiry of the contract. Maybe the brainchild of the Llyods insurance company, but i not have any evidence of its introduction except its practises. It transmigrated to america where they modified...
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