i tried a wave counting but have to admit my elliot wave knowledge is limited...what do you think?
nothing wrong with the view.
- #16,323
- Mar 15, 2012 6:58pm Mar 15, 2012 6:58pm
- Joined Nov 2009 | Status: Trader | 2,582 Posts
i tried a wave counting but have to admit my elliot wave knowledge is limited...what do you think?
But, it's also quite possible that 5 really completed at 131.7 as a sort of wedge/diagonal triangle. It's a little hard to make out ( for me at least). Break below previous recent low at 130.2 and a subsequent retest of the minor TL running 128.52 through 130.2 would add credence to what I stated earlier.
By the way, the wave counting is fine.
Finally, and I know it's an easy throw away line, but (at least where I am) it's Friday.
- #16,324
- Edited 1:09am Mar 16, 2012 12:15am | Edited 1:09am
- Joined Nov 2009 | Status: Trader | 2,582 Posts
My current wave count, showing what I believe are major trendlines and current in-play channels.
The top target that I have shown has been a personal preferred target for some time, but I thought it was unreachable. It sits just above current top of the red channel (directly overhead in three - four days), where it meets the daily 800 sma.
Of course, it is still possible that the entire wave 5 may play out at the current levels. If so, a break of both the blue and red channels would be final confirmation that wave 5 has completed and GJ is retracing.
Think I'll leave the H&S for another day. Just the ramblings of someone still looking at charts at 2 o'clock in the morning.
The top target that I have shown has been a personal preferred target for some time, but I thought it was unreachable. It sits just above current top of the red channel (directly overhead in three - four days), where it meets the daily 800 sma.
Of course, it is still possible that the entire wave 5 may play out at the current levels. If so, a break of both the blue and red channels would be final confirmation that wave 5 has completed and GJ is retracing.
Think I'll leave the H&S for another day. Just the ramblings of someone still looking at charts at 2 o'clock in the morning.
- #16,338
- Mar 16, 2012 4:54pm Mar 16, 2012 4:54pm
- Joined Jan 2010 | Status: .... | 3,910 Posts
yeah, 133.5 is also suggested by the bearish gartley on the daily/weekly
to mention is that the gartely is inside the downtrend channel, so it's high prob
- #16,339
- Mar 16, 2012 10:24pm Mar 16, 2012 10:24pm
- Joined Nov 2009 | Status: Trader | 2,582 Posts
yeah, 133.5 is also suggested by the bearish gartley on the daily/weekly
to mention is that the gartely is inside the downtrend channel, so it's high prob
I'm seeing channel top (as well as I can draw it) at 133.2. Obviously lower next week. Am half expecting the channel will break, if only by a few pips, thereby indicating that it has probably lost its major significance.
Then a retracement by 38% ~50% of the channel, which would equate to a 50% ~ 61.8 retracement of the total upmove so far from 117.3.
At about that point, GJ meets the descending (already tested) trendline 163~140. If the TL holds again, that will lend support to the idea that this whole move has only been a wave 1,2 and 3 and, I think, finally confirm an idea that was discussed on another FF thread last year. That being .. GJ is now in the last wave of a 5 wave expanding triangle ( one of its favourite patterns) and will top out around 144 before a massive and final drop into the 100 area to finally complete its whole move down from 251.
So far, all normal triangle parameters are being met - Wave b was messy and confused. Wave c was a fast intervention style wave ( in fact a true G7 intervention), wave d wasn't messy but it was more corrective in nature and wave e is most impulsive.
- #16,340
- Mar 18, 2012 1:07pm Mar 18, 2012 1:07pm
in case this counting is right it can't be a valid diagonal ending or leading cause wave 4 is not overlapping wave 1, so probably there can be a fith wave extension as well ..or maybe wave 4 isn't finished yet 
