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Daily GBP/JPY analysis

  • #16,301
  • Mar 14, 2012 7:42am Mar 14, 2012 7:42am
potential pinbar forming on 4h (80 min left)...jpy hitting resistance zone too at 83.6...but stronger resistance expected at 84.00.. maybe short opportunity in 2 to 4 hours
  • #16,302
  • Mar 14, 2012 7:49am Mar 14, 2012 7:49am
Quoting torkay77
potential pinbar forming on 4h (80 min left)...jpy hitting resistance zone too at 83.6...but stronger resistance expected at 84.00.. maybe short opportunity in 2 to 4 hours
I think you may be right. Would expect UJ to break just above it's option barrier at 84. But, of course, who knows what GU will do.

If GJ breaks above about 131.8, it's going to keep going up to next channel resistance (134 +). But if it holds at or below the 131.8 figure, it should start to fall. Interesting next hour or two.
  • #16,303
  • Mar 14, 2012 9:00am Mar 14, 2012 9:00am
ABCD pattern with D at confluence of 161.8% fib & Pivot S3 at 1.31.7
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  • #16,304
  • Mar 14, 2012 9:06am Mar 14, 2012 9:06am
Quoting torkay77
ABCD pattern with D at confluence of 161.8% fib & Pivot S3 at 1.31.7

Could you please elaborate? i have no real knowledge of the pattern. And does this pattern indicate a "where to next" figure?
  • #16,305
  • Mar 14, 2012 9:08am Mar 14, 2012 9:08am
Quoting torkay77
ABCD pattern with D at confluence of 161.8% fib & Pivot S3 at 1.31.7
R3 you mean.
and ABCD is already complete
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  • #16,306
  • Mar 14, 2012 9:15am Mar 14, 2012 9:15am
yeah typo, R3 of course, but why complete?, i think the rule is from 50% to 161.8%
  • #16,307
  • Mar 14, 2012 9:23am Mar 14, 2012 9:23am
Quoting Mpt
Could you please elaborate? i have no real knowledge of the pattern. And does this pattern indicate a "where to next" figure?
look here

http://www.fx360.com/techAnalysis/ch...d-pattern.aspx

technical TP would be point B at 129.73
  • #16,308
  • Mar 14, 2012 9:52am Mar 14, 2012 9:52am
well actually it is also a bearish butterfly which is valid already so scaling in short is an option, but i would need to put my SL above 132.5 as the butterfly can extend quite a bit ..that would limit my R/R to 1:1
  • #16,309
  • Mar 14, 2012 10:27am Mar 14, 2012 10:27am
Quoting torkay77
yeah typo, R3 of course, but why complete?, i think the rule is from 50% to 161.8%
no you are wrong. ABCD is where the time and distance from A to B is the same as from C to D.
Or 127.2 AB = CD or 161.8 AB = CD.
Idealy from 61.8% to 161.8%.
  • #16,310
  • Mar 15, 2012 5:17am Mar 15, 2012 5:17am
161.8% fib & Pivot r3 at 131.7 did hold as resistance...price now trying to retest 23,6% fib & Pivot at 130.845...if it breaks 130.36 is next target...if not i expect more ranging between 130.8 and 131.7
  • #16,311
  • Mar 15, 2012 5:57am Mar 15, 2012 5:57am
Quoting torkay77
161.8% fib & Pivot r3 at 131.7 did hold as resistance...price now trying to retest 23,6% fib & Pivot at 130.845...if it breaks 130.36 is next target...if not i expect more ranging between 130.8 and 131.7

ABC correction in expanding triangle. Possibly subwave 4 of 5. Maybe 38 retracement around 130.4 area. Maybe 130.6 was it.
  • #16,312
  • Mar 15, 2012 6:35am Mar 15, 2012 6:35am
price reached important decision level, GBPUSD and USDJPY are both testing the MA50 now...i favour more bearishness so i leave my position open but moved stop loss to daily open level
  • #16,313
  • Mar 15, 2012 6:51am Mar 15, 2012 6:51am
actually it's forming a pinbar at MA50..together with rsi divergence that's a strong bullish signal so if it's confirmed i probably reverse my position
  • #16,314
  • Mar 15, 2012 7:08am Mar 15, 2012 7:08am
Quoting torkay77
actually it's forming a pinbar at MA50..together with rsi divergence that's a strong bullish signal so if it's confirmed i probably reverse my position

Might possibly have one more small move down yet. Anyway, off to bed here. Good luck
  • #16,315
  • Mar 15, 2012 9:33am Mar 15, 2012 9:33am
It's starting to look a bit like a massive head and shoulders pattern forming, wherein its making the top right shoulder right now. Probably wrong , but ....
  • #16,316
  • Edited 9:53am Mar 15, 2012 9:39am | Edited 9:53am
Quoting Mpt
It's starting to look a bit like a massive head and shoulders pattern forming, wherein its making the top right shoulder right now. Probably wrong , but ....
timeframe would be nice mate, even though im looking

EIDT - i see now... 1hr TF?

looking for resistance between 1.3100 and 1.3140...or 50-61.8%



http://i899.photobucket.com/albums/a...nuk/gbpjap.png

Although this was probably it with a retrace to the 50% with a pin bar (below).... sell the retracement etc

http://i899.photobucket.com/albums/a...manuk/jap2.png
  • #16,317
  • Mar 15, 2012 9:55am Mar 15, 2012 9:55am
When i say massive ... small one 1 hour. Much bigger one 4 hr. VERY big one daily.

From the 126 area right up to 131.6. Approx eventual target (if correct) means effectively a 76% retracement.

Would be partially confirmed right here if price cannot get back and hold above 130.6. Break above may negate the argument.
  • #16,318
  • Mar 15, 2012 9:59am Mar 15, 2012 9:59am
Quoting Mpt
When i say massive ... small one 1 hour. Much bigger one 4 hr. VERY big one daily.

From the 126 area right up to 131.6. Approx eventual target (if correct) means effectively a 76% retracement.

Would be partially confirmed right here if price cannot get back and hold above 130.6. Break above may negate the argument.
If price falls from here, and breaks the upward 4HR trend then you may be right mate, nice little retrace upward to make the RT on the 4HR and your quids in.
  • #16,319
  • Mar 15, 2012 10:01am Mar 15, 2012 10:01am
Quoting MrBurns
If price falls from here, and breaks the upward 4HR trend then you may be right mate, nice little retrace upward to make the RT on the 4HR and your quids in.
Yes, if it holds true, then it's all vey easy. You know your start and you know your finish.
  • #16,320
  • Mar 15, 2012 10:55am Mar 15, 2012 10:55am
i tried a wave counting but have to admit my elliot wave knowledge is limited...what do you think?
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