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what's the matter with the USD???

  • #21
  • Apr 30, 2006 1:28pm Apr 30, 2006 1:28pm
Ok , we are getting abit mixed up here. In Uk a UK gallon is 4.54 litres, i do know the US gallon is different, i'm not sure how many litres in US gallon.

Wow guys life is too short to argue over this
  • #22
  • Apr 30, 2006 1:37pm Apr 30, 2006 1:37pm
Ok, I'm going out for another Martini and going to go relax in the hottub... Let me know how this turns out...LOL Scott



Quoting Matrix
Ok , we are getting abit mixed up here. In Uk a UK gallon is 4.54 litres, i do know the US gallon is different, i'm not sure how many litres in US gallon.

Wow guys life is too short to argue over this
  • #23
  • Apr 30, 2006 1:44pm Apr 30, 2006 1:44pm
Quoting merlin

anyway, with this understanding, it is easy to see what is happening to the EURUSD. there is an expectation that the ECB will raise rates and that the Fed will stop raising rates. so naturally the EURUSD will go up. thats the same reason why i think a short USDJPY position is so good now.
Well, i don't think it's only about interest rate. There gotta be at least taken
stability into account. - What does it help you, if an african country offers you
a 10% interest on your money - when you're afraid that a civil war could start
any moment.

I think, what gotta taken additionally into account in the moment, is that sweden
moves a lot of backup money from usd to eur. - Why are they doin' so? Are those
some millions important. If you take it as a sign, to prepare a join of the eur-
countrys, that it could on the long run move much more money in the eur than
those peanuts now.

Although, the stability and continuity should be searched in europa now, since
it doesn't join any war that's possible. - Maybe just europa can't make up such
a decission. Too many opinions. - But still, that's an advantage right now.

Quoting merlin
oh, and btw, a weak dollar is good for the US, especially in the face of our trade deficits. a weak dollar in no way signals a weak US economy, the two are not really related in that way. to see the strength of the economy you need to look more at the domestic stock and bond markets, and in this case they are doing fairly well!
No, the us economy is really weak. You can't talk of an trade imbalance on
the one hand and call the ecomony not weak at the other at the same time
without givin' good reasons to do so.

The US wastes resources like no other country in the world. I hope, that will
reduce, when the oil hits a 100 Dollars. - A weak dollar will however help the
exportin industry and will cut not necessary imports.

The main problem i see in the moment for the us, is, that it will take the folk
years and much money to move to cars that use less gas and to prepare houses
to looses less heat. Money, that the average man maybe can't afford.

'cause he is spendin' much on gasoline.

Any of you have a opinion, if americans will this summer have a drivin' season
or if that season might be stopped out because of higher energy prices?

regards,
Tony
  • #24
  • Apr 30, 2006 3:04pm Apr 30, 2006 3:04pm
Hi guys,

Did you check the Swiss Francs against any currencies ? If you think the Euro, GBP, JPY was strong, look at your charts.
  • #25
  • Apr 30, 2006 10:25pm Apr 30, 2006 10:25pm
Quoting tojoko
Well, i don't think it's only about interest rate. There gotta be at least taken
stability into account. - What does it help you, if an african country offers you
a 10% interest on your money - when you're afraid that a civil war could start
any moment.

I think, what gotta taken additionally into account in the moment, is that sweden
moves a lot of backup money from usd to eur. - Why are they doin' so? Are those
some millions important. If you take it as a sign, to prepare a join of the eur-
countrys, that it could on the long run move much more money in the eur than
those peanuts now.

Although, the stability and continuity should be searched in europa now, since
it doesn't join any war that's possible. - Maybe just europa can't make up such
a decission. Too many opinions. - But still, that's an advantage right now.



No, the us economy is really weak. You can't talk of an trade imbalance on
the one hand and call the ecomony not weak at the other at the same time
without givin' good reasons to do so.

The US wastes resources like no other country in the world. I hope, that will
reduce, when the oil hits a 100 Dollars. - A weak dollar will however help the
exportin industry and will cut not necessary imports.

The main problem i see in the moment for the us, is, that it will take the folk
years and much money to move to cars that use less gas and to prepare houses
to looses less heat. Money, that the average man maybe can't afford.

'cause he is spendin' much on gasoline.

Any of you have a opinion, if americans will this summer have a drivin' season
or if that season might be stopped out because of higher energy prices?

regards,
Tony
Energy costs only affect the extremly poor. Non-energy related costs to drive a car in the US are about $0.40/mi. At $1.50 /gallon energy adds another $0.05/mi. So it useto cost $0.45/mi all told.Today it costs $0.50/mi. Even if the worst projections were to materialize, we would pay a whopping $0.55/mi.

You have to be in a pretty damn bad situation for an extra $20-30/mo to hurt your finances. Just my opinion...
  • #26
  • May 1, 2006 1:44am May 1, 2006 1:44am
Quoting Darkstar
Energy costs only affect the extremly poor. Non-energy related costs to drive a car in the US are about $0.40/mi. At $1.50 /gallon energy adds another $0.05/mi. So it useto cost $0.45/mi all told.Today it costs $0.50/mi. Even if the worst projections were to materialize, we would pay a whopping $0.55/mi.

You have to be in a pretty damn bad situation for an extra $20-30/mo to hurt your finances. Just my opinion...
Sounds simple and logical but it's hard for most people to think that way. Plus most people are already spenting more than what they make each months so extra $20-30 is a pain to some.
  • #27
  • Edited 6:41am May 1, 2006 6:36am | Edited 6:41am
The funny part of all this is that we've been talking about 1.28 by June/July with 1.30 possible by the 3rd quarter in the chat room for well over 3 months. So, no big suprise really.

As the recent downtrend (minor) and the uptrend started, you always have a period of ranging.

Everyone grips and complains about the ranging market and wishes the pair would start trending, then when it does, people freak and start slamming the economy, the dollar, etc. Sometimes when you get what you ask for, it comes at a time when you least expect it.

The reality of the recent upside break is: this is the forex market. This is what we do. We're only talking a small movement in the overall range of this pair and I think it's a bit too soon to be talking about how weak the U.S. economy is; especially considering this same time last year everyone was talking about how the economy was a freight train that was making new lows everyday!
Ah, what a fickle group traders can be!
Capital Preservation is key to long term wealth accumulation
  • #28
  • May 1, 2006 10:05am May 1, 2006 10:05am
Why the Euro rise? - the dollar sentiment is weak.

That's pretty much it. You can't really say it's the fundamentals because every fundamental report (other than Bernanke hinting the pause in rate hikes) in the past few weeks has been dollar positive.

Regarding high oil prices- This should affect consumer spending right? That doesn't seem to be the case after today's personal spending report. It seems that although gas prices are high, personal spending has actually increased. Why? Well personal income has also increased and the fact that the job market is strong right now is compensating for the ridiculous gas prices and not really affecting the spending of the consumers.

Then to top it off, factory orders and ISM are both strong.

``There's no sign that manufacturing is slowing in this economy,'' Drew Matus, a senior economist at Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. in New York, said in an interview. ``Companies are trying to ramp up production to restock inventories, but they're having a hard time keeping up in the face of new orders.''


Although the dollar sentiment is weak, I still can't say with 100% confidence that this is the rise of the Euro. You just can't ignore the fundamentals.

But then again----the market will do what it wants

Those are my 2 cents.

Happy trading everyone!

-BP
  • #29
  • May 1, 2006 10:58am May 1, 2006 10:58am
Quoting Big Pippin
Regarding high oil prices- This should affect consumer spending right? That doesn't seem to be the case after today's personal spending report. It seems that although gas prices are high, personal spending has actually increased. Why? Well personal income has also increased and the fact that the job market is strong right now is compensating for the ridiculous gas prices and not really affecting the spending of the consumers.
isn't this essentially inflation?

i believe there are actually two fundamentals controlling a currency i.e. inflation and interest rates with the latter being a reaction to the former. so really, at its most basic level, a measure of inflation should be the primary "indicator" for the strength of a currency. though to be honest this is really just a layman's understanding as im a total newb! haha so yea correct me on this if i'm off target.

-nd
  • #30
  • May 1, 2006 11:03am May 1, 2006 11:03am
am not good at english so i only understand the news when it is already translate into Vietnamese language (i mean : at that time it is too late to catch the movement of the market )

but when i look at my chart ,(thanks god , i have a very simple system to entry the market ) , yeah, when i look at my chart , the trend is still uptrend , so i place a long order .

after that , i will use trailing stop to protect my profit ,(the reason why i rarely use TP and SL ), because i know when i place my order , it is not again the trend .
my friend is trend
  • #31
  • May 1, 2006 11:10am May 1, 2006 11:10am
Quoting Big Pippin
Although the dollar sentiment is weak, I still can't say with 100% confidence that this is the rise of the Euro. You just can't ignore the fundamentals.

But then again----the market will do what it wants

-BP
Well, the fundamentals and technicals all work in conjunction to move the market. At the same time you have sentiment and emotion that comes strongly into play which can be influenced by both fundamentals AND technicals.

The market is like a huge spider web with influences coming in from every angle.....there is no way to determine ahead of time with any degree of accuracy, other than luck, the reaction on the part of the market to any given news or event. Those who trade purely one side, fundamental or technical, are missing a huge part of the picture and will never truely succeed in trading.

Personally, I don't care WHY the USD caved....it's the volatility I crave....not justification for the movement...leave that to the analysts.
Capital Preservation is key to long term wealth accumulation
  • #32
  • May 1, 2006 11:19am May 1, 2006 11:19am
Quoting Big Pippin

Although the dollar sentiment is weak, I still can't say with 100% confidence that this is the rise of the Euro. You just can't ignore the fundamentals.

-BP
imho
Fundamental News >~ Nano Second Old = Technical Analysis
  • #33
  • May 1, 2006 11:37am May 1, 2006 11:37am
Quoting natediggity
isn't this essentially inflation?

i believe there are actually two fundamentals controlling a currency i.e. inflation and interest rates with the latter being a reaction to the former. so really, at its most basic level, a measure of inflation should be the primary "indicator" for the strength of a currency. though to be honest this is really just a layman's understanding as im a total newb! haha so yea correct me on this if i'm off target.

-nd
Inflation is not necessarily a bad thing for a currency. In fact it's a good thing because it means that the currency's economy is growing. To control this inflation, interest rates have to rise.

So--- when inflation rises, interests rates rise. And when interest rates rise, the currency rises.

However, with 15 consecutive rate hikes for the US, the sentiment is that the economy's growth has plateaued because the Fed doesn't see a need to raise rates again because inflation has slowed down (i.e. the economy, people spending, etc.). The interesting part is that the fundamentals are in fact still showing a growth in the US economy DESPITE what everyone else thinks which would lead you to believe that inflation is still a factor and thus rates would still need to rise.

Another thing to add to this chaos is that although fundamentals are strong, these numbers are delayed because they are from the previous month so the dollar sentiment may still in fact be weak.

My point is that I have no bias right now. I think it will be another 1-3 weeks before the EUR/USD makes up its mind.
  • #34
  • May 1, 2006 1:54pm May 1, 2006 1:54pm
I'm in total agreement with the general setiment projected by Merlin and Buddha.

The Bush adminstation wants a weaker dollar to help multi-national companies gain an advantage since a weaker dollar allows American exports to be sold cheaper abroad. I'm sure the government actually has a DIRECT hand in the weakening of the dollar.

It makes perfect sense, really...with everything being so difficult to control (with the war, etc), the best protection for the GOP & the Bush Administration is to don the shield of a good economy...that's where the weaker dollar helps...

About gas prices...All I can say is that when I bought my Hybrid in 2002, all my friends laughed at me :-)...now, they just want to car pool :-)
  • #35
  • May 1, 2006 3:24pm May 1, 2006 3:24pm
Quoting mrmikal
I'm in total agreement with the general setiment projected by Merlin and Buddha.

The Bush adminstation wants a weaker dollar to help multi-national companies gain an advantage since a weaker dollar allows American exports to be sold cheaper abroad. I'm sure the government actually has a DIRECT hand in the weakening of the dollar.

It makes perfect sense, really...with everything being so difficult to control (with the war, etc), the best protection for the GOP & the Bush Administration is to don the shield of a good economy...that's where the weaker dollar helps...

About gas prices...All I can say is that when I bought my Hybrid in 2002, all my friends laughed at me :-)...now, they just want to car pool :-)
Yea smart move on the hybrid, haha.

What do you think of the Euro economy? Wouldn't they want a weak Euro as well because this will also make their exports cheaper and help their economy. This presents a dilemma within the EUR/USD pair don't you think?
  • #36
  • Last Post: May 1, 2006 9:15pm May 1, 2006 9:15pm
Quoting Darkstar
Energy costs only affect the extremly poor. Non-energy related costs to drive a car in the US are about $0.40/mi. At $1.50 /gallon energy adds another $0.05/mi. So it useto cost $0.45/mi all told.Today it costs $0.50/mi. Even if the worst projections were to materialize, we would pay a whopping $0.55/mi.

You have to be in a pretty damn bad situation for an extra $20-30/mo to hurt your finances. Just my opinion...

I have to say some of us di suffer. 10 cents a mile right? (or maybe 15 cents) My job is 30 miles from where I live. So, I drive 60 miles total every day. 60X10 cents is $6. $6 a day times 5 days a week is $30 . $30 times 4 weeks a month is $120 if it is 15 cents a mile then it is $180 a month!! That is all and above what we paid before. I know it doesn't sound like alot but man, I guess it is just a good excuse for me to be on the internet alot and not do any driving when I am at home I guess it could be worse though.
JOHN 3:16
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