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  • #921
  • Mar 13, 2012 6:06pm Mar 13, 2012 6:06pm
Quoting ianlikesgolf
Hi Amy

How was New Zealand ?

I think AU is a buy with a retest of the 1.0467 - 1.0482 area.
I waiting to see this retest during an AU session as I think the lows put in at present are not valid until Sydney has traded these levels.

I think AU will possibly retest today and then up. I see the dow had a big day up yesterday breaking out of the 3 weekly highs.

I emailed Frank last week. He said to check the US futures.
Is that the dia + S P 500. Do you get those in Fibonacci Trader ?

I read in your posts a lot the symbol dx. Does dx stand...
Hi Ian New Zealand was good. I saw your previous post, I was in queenstown on the weekend, i didn't play any golf though it was raining so hard that we almost didn't get out.

DX is the dollar index futures that trade on NYBOT or ICC. you can get this feed with interactive brokers, it costs $75usd per month if you don't trade it which i don't.

The US futures Frank is talking about are the ES contract (S&P 500 futures)that trades on Globex, and the YM contract (DOW Futures) that trades on ECBOT which is just code for electronic Chicago board of trade. You can get both of these for free through Interactive brokers.
  • #922
  • Mar 13, 2012 6:11pm Mar 13, 2012 6:11pm
Hi Amy

do you get those charts up in Fibonacci Trader for the US futures or just charts from interactive brokers ?

I may start using Fibonacci Trader again if so. At present I have my MT4 indicator for all the levels, but not futures.

Do you pay attention to the closest expiring futures contract month ?
  • #923
  • Mar 13, 2012 6:11pm Mar 13, 2012 6:11pm
For AU I'm really not sure if it's finished its down move or not, I'm still holding short at the moment. If it was finished i would have though that it would have been a lot higher by now.
I'm looking at the possibility of Wednesday/Thursday being a turning point for the Dow and S&P but I might be wrong I am a little out of cync with those markets at the moment until they have a longer pullback than what happened last week.
  • #924
  • Mar 13, 2012 6:13pm Mar 13, 2012 6:13pm
Quoting ianlikesgolf
Hi Amy

do you get those charts up in Fibonacci Trader for the US futures or just charts from interactive brokers ?

Do you pay attention to the closest expiring futures contract month ?
I get the charts in fib trader. I pay attention to the closest month, now i am still charting the march contract, on Friday i will switch to the June contract.
  • #925
  • Mar 13, 2012 6:22pm Mar 13, 2012 6:22pm
I will get Fibonacci Trader set up again.

Amy what is your guide for switching months.

Is it like the end of the 2nd or 3rd trading week of each month ?

What do you think is most important to pin AU too?
I still have no real clear idea.

For EU its more easy with the US dollar index + dia + S+P 500
and soon I will have the US futures.
  • #926
  • Mar 13, 2012 6:32pm Mar 13, 2012 6:32pm
Hi Ian New Zealand was good. I saw your previous post, I was in queenstown on the weekend, i didn't play any golf though it was raining so hard that we almost didn't get out.

.............................................................................

No good about the rain.

There is so many cool outside activities to do there.

I lived in Queenstown for six months years back.

I remember it was so cold in winter.
  • #927
  • Mar 13, 2012 8:15pm Mar 13, 2012 8:15pm
Quoting ianlikesgolf
I will get Fibonacci Trader set up again.

Amy what is your guide for switching months.

Is it like the end of the 2nd or 3rd trading week of each month ?

What do you think is most important to pin AU too?
I still have no real clear idea.

For EU its more easy with the US dollar index + dia + S+P 500
and soon I will have the US futures.

I switch months when the contract expires, on Friday the March contract expires.

For au don't try to pin it to anything else, if you really want something then it probably has the highest correlation with the S&P 500 but i think it is best just to do what the au chart is saying.
Another thing you could do is watch euraud, you know you are wasting your time shorting au if ea is not ready for a bullish run.
  • #928
  • Mar 13, 2012 8:16pm Mar 13, 2012 8:16pm
Quoting ianlikesgolf
Hi Ian New Zealand was good. I saw your previous post, I was in queenstown on the weekend, i didn't play any golf though it was raining so hard that we almost didn't get out.

.............................................................................

No good about the rain.

There is so many cool outside activities to do there.

I lived in Queenstown for six months years back.

I remember it was so cold in winter.
Yeah Central Otago is freezing in winter, I couldn't handle it anymore.
  • #929
  • Mar 14, 2012 7:11pm Mar 14, 2012 7:11pm
Hi Amy

Thankyou for your help yesterday.

Im learning what is important to monitor when trading currencies.

What I really like about these fibonacci levels is the structure they provide to trade within.

....................................................

Australia will be paradise in winter compared to Central Otago. When I first went to Brisbane one winter time it was too hot for jeans and I had to go and buy some shorts.
  • #930
  • Mar 14, 2012 10:20pm Mar 14, 2012 10:20pm
Quoting ianlikesgolf
Hi Amy

Thankyou for your help yesterday.

Im learning what is important to monitor when trading currencies.

What I really like about these fibonacci levels is the structure they provide to trade within.

....................................................

Australia will be paradise in winter compared to Central Otago. When I first went to Brisbane one winter time it was too hot for jeans and I had to go and buy some shorts.
Hi Ian

The levels do provide a good structure, I closed all my au shorts today, I want to buy at 395 if i can get it, I think that maybe now price heads to 1.1070 (yearly highs).

EU is also around levels of interest for buying, What's your thoughts?
  • #931
  • Edited 6:23am Mar 15, 2012 4:00am | Edited 6:23am
Hi Ian

The levels do provide a good structure, I closed all my au shorts today, I want to buy at 395 if i can get it, I think that maybe now price heads to 1.1070 (yearly highs).

EU is also around levels of interest for buying, What's your thoughts?

.................................................................
Hi Amy

I was waiting for AU to hit 1.0398 area for the best possible entry, but price went down only to 1.0422 today in the Sydney session.
We have the same level then for AU.
I think PA is heading for 1.1248 ( 3 quarterly highs ) as AU stopped 20 pips short of the 3 quarterly mid now at 1.0402.

At least at the moment PA is trading under the 3 monthly mid at 1.0485 another chance may come up soon enough. ???

...............................................................................................................

EU 3 weekly lows at 1.2995 and monthly lows at 1.3003 already hit today.
I need to look at the US dollar index, dia and spy some more and think carefully for EU.

The March US futures expire tomorrow so I dont know what usually happens with this event.

Finally being the last month of the quarter. What is the most important principle to consider? If its relevant at the moment.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: mar 15 au 9 months.jpg Size: 69 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: mar 15 au levels.jpg Size: 100 KB
  • #932
  • Edited 7:29am Mar 15, 2012 6:36am | Edited 7:29am
the 4hr highs at 1.0519 and the 23.6 Fib at 1.0522 may provide enough resistance for a reversal move back down for a buy in at 1.0400 area.
otherwise the next level 1.0546 or 1.0578 + 1.0586.


...................................................................................................................

1.0546 monthly low as resistance looks best to match up with EURAUD 3 x daily lows at 1.2387.
the new 4hr candle GMT opened 30 mins ago too and the new 4 hr highs at 1.0441 + 1.0553 looks like a nice reversal area.
  • #933
  • Edited 12:25pm Mar 15, 2012 11:23am | Edited 12:25pm
365 MA coming up at 1.0548 area on m30 to match 4 hr highs levels.

US close today + Sydney open should reveal whether this area becomes short term resistance.

new 4 hr highs at 1.0546 + 1.0557.

the 150ema + 200 sma on h1 Price Action dealing with these too.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: mar 15 au m30.jpg Size: 97 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: mar 15 au h1.jpg Size: 95 KB
  • #934
  • Edited 10:18am Mar 16, 2012 9:42am | Edited 10:18am
EU short at 1.3185.
daily highs at 1.3183 matched with 4 hr 38 fib at 1.3184.
EU has moved up 140 pips today.

AU hit the daily highs at 1.0597 and did not stay there long. It hit 1.0596 and quickly went down 20 pips. Its a good sign.
As if the PA action comes to an important level and remains there a very short time and pulls back fast it normally verifies that level.
AU daily highs are matched with the weekly mid at 1.0602 in chart 4 below.

These weekly mids have held up very well with todays price action thus far.

EU voilated its weekly mid at 1.3169 by 16 pips,
but the US dollar index has held its weekly mid at 79.67 which is matched with its daily lows at 79.67.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: mar 16 eur weekly.gif Size: 12 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: mar 16 eu levels.jpg Size: 104 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: mar 16 us dollar weekly.gif Size: 11 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: mar 16 au weekly.gif Size: 13 KB
  • #935
  • Edited Mar 19, 2012 9:09am Mar 18, 2012 6:41pm | Edited Mar 19, 2012 9:09am
There is some really good resistance zones coming up for AU + EU.

We have the daily highs, EU 1.3213 + 1.3233. AU 1.0620 + 1.0639.
1 x weekly highs, EU 1.3216 + 1.3236. AU 1.0622 + 1.0641.
3x weekly mid, EU 1.3234. AU 1.0641.
50 fib, EU 1.3243. AU 1.0638.

these levels on both pairs. higher weekly opening leading to a lower weekly close is my conclusion. I dont discount the possibility of a breakout to higher levels either but with 2 up days last week and a higher weekly opening after reaching the weekly highs a reversal down is my view.

Being the last 2 weeks of the quarter market timing is really important now.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: mar 19 eu levels.jpg Size: 110 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: mar 19 aud levels.jpg Size: 117 KB
  • #936
  • Mar 18, 2012 6:55pm Mar 18, 2012 6:55pm
Quoting ianlikesgolf
There is some really good resistance zones coming up for AU + EU.

We have the daily highs, EU 1.3213 + 1.3233. AU 1.0620 + 1.0639.
1 x weekly highs, EU 1.3216 + 1.3236. AU 1.0622 + 1.0641.
3x weekly mid,
50 fib, EU 1.3243. AU 1.0638.

these levels on both pairs. higher weekly opening leading to a lower weekly close is my conclusion. I dont discount the possibility of a breakout to higher levels either but with 2 up days last week and a higher weekly opening after reaching the weekly highs a reversal down is my view.

Being the last 2 weeks of...
Interesting post and levels.. but i just keep looking at the raw chart day and week and cant stop my self thinking its headed for hier ground..also noticex on usd index weekly very bearish candle rite on 50% mark..in saying that i am short the eu.. but only have a very short term view.. Just my OPN of course..
  • #937
  • Edited 7:46pm Mar 18, 2012 7:02pm | Edited 7:46pm
Thanks danc

I forgot to open my USD index charts.

new daily lows are 79.51 + 79.39.

new 3 x weekly mid matching at 79.51.

yes a nice weekly bearish candle. lower weekly opening to a higher weekly close is my view. It could go lower too.
Wait and see how everything plays out. The 50 % fib levels on EU + AU are really visible to a lot of traders.
This level on EU 1.3243 matches up with about the daiy lows for USD index at 79.51 to 79.39. Its about 2:1 pip ratio moves for EU and index.
More important is the 3 weekly mid for EU at 1.3233. That alone (without the fib 50% level) combined with the index daily lows is a high probability setup.

index 50% fib at 79.39 for 4 hr chart + single weekly lows at 79.51 + 79.39.
there is 4 levels combined for USD index for high probability support.
daily lows, weekly lows, 3 x weekly mid + 50% 4 hr Fib.

3 x 4 hr chart currently in a tight range too.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: mar 19 us dollar 4hr fibs.jpg Size: 78 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: mar 19 us dollar 3 x 4hr.jpg Size: 80 KB
  • #938
  • Mar 18, 2012 9:26pm Mar 18, 2012 9:26pm
spy + dia are currently trading at there 3 monthly highs.
Its a nice time for a sell off with just 2 weeks remaining in this current quarter.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: spy 3 months.gif Size: 18 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: dia 3 months.gif Size: 15 KB
  • #939
  • Mar 19, 2012 2:51am Mar 19, 2012 2:51am
Quoting ianlikesgolf
spy + dia are currently trading at there 3 monthly highs.
Its a nice time for a sell off with just 2 weeks remaining in this current quarter.
I agree.. I have been watching Dow.. and some one i know who is quite accurate in his calls re Dow .. reckons its to come off 200 points..Thou looking at that EU Index Day chart.. u put me on 2.. SURE looks upp side to me..
  • #940
  • Mar 19, 2012 3:35am Mar 19, 2012 3:35am
do you have any thoughts on this week please ?

I think the dow and spy has the biggest influence on the curriencies.

If they sell off, EU, AU, GU all go down. Is this normally the case ?

I have around 1.2963 for EU.
AU 1.0400 area or lower.
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