Fibonacci is like a guessing game | Forex Factory

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Fibonacci is like a guessing game

  • #1
  • First Post: Mar 13, 2012 9:50am Mar 13, 2012 9:50am
Hey,

how do you work with fibonacci indicators?
In my opinion Fibonacci is like a guessing game.
  • #2
  • Mar 13, 2012 10:21am Mar 13, 2012 10:21am
what do you think?
  • #3
  • Mar 13, 2012 10:51am Mar 13, 2012 10:51am
Fibonacci is the worst indicator I have ever seen
  • #4
  • Mar 13, 2012 10:54am Mar 13, 2012 10:54am
Its a good indicator to use as as a confluence with plain old support and resistance levels
  • #5
  • Mar 13, 2012 1:28pm Mar 13, 2012 1:28pm
Quoting tomplank

Fibonacci is the worst indicator I have ever seen
It's not mandatory to use Fibonacci you know!
  • #6
  • Mar 13, 2012 8:01pm Mar 13, 2012 8:01pm
Put it on the latest significant e.g. H1 swings / Daily outside bar and put the most emphasis on 0% - 50% - 100%. If you look at the last days e.g. pretty much every swing on the lower tfs bowed down religiously to the levels.
  • #7
  • Mar 14, 2012 11:16am Mar 14, 2012 11:16am
Mix it with in a trend channel. As said earlier if Fibonacci and other indicators meet, the information can be a stronger signal.
  • #8
  • Mar 14, 2012 2:31pm Mar 14, 2012 2:31pm
The only real trick with fibs is to
find the start of the pullback before
it completes and get your fibs drawn in,
then look for a price reaction at the 50%
for a continuance of the short term trend,
targets and stops should be really clear which is a good thing.
Here's a chart of todays action,if only it were always this clear.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: p21.gif Size: 19 KB
You can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.
  • #9
  • Mar 14, 2012 3:07pm Mar 14, 2012 3:07pm
Here's a daily chart,as you can see the 50%
is at 3052 so this level needs to be watched
to see if we can bounce up from the pullback,
fibs just give really nice levels to work with but
as with anything in the market they don't always work.
ADD....Look back at how price has reacted at this level
long before the fib was drawn in,this is a very important level.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: p21.gif Size: 16 KB
You can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.
  • #10
  • Mar 14, 2012 3:28pm Mar 14, 2012 3:28pm
Quoting jezek5

Here's a chart of todays action,if only it were always this clear.
I think you'll find you've drawn the fib levels upside down!!

You should be drawing from the high down to the low for a downtrend retracement, your 100 (100%) and 0 (0%) need to be the other way round! Think about what all those fib levels represent.

Same with your second chart, draw low to high for going long on a retracement.


  • #11
  • Mar 14, 2012 3:29pm Mar 14, 2012 3:29pm
What is trading, if not best guess? Fibs are areas LIKELY to have buy/sell orders at, however when combined with support/resistance, they are deadly.
  • #12
  • Mar 14, 2012 3:38pm Mar 14, 2012 3:38pm
Quoting pipmutt
I think you'll find you've drawn the fib levels upside down!!

You should be drawing from the high down to the low for a downtrend retracement, your 100 (100%) and 0 (0%) need to be the other way round! Think about what those fib levels represent.


Sorry but nop,i was playing the 50% pullback
so the fib was drawn from where the pullback started.
Like i said before,its knowing the start of the pullback
thats all important.
This way you get the level to sell 50% and a target 161.%
You can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.
  • #13
  • Mar 14, 2012 3:44pm Mar 14, 2012 3:44pm
Quoting jezek5
Sorry but nop,i was playing the 50% pullback
so the fib was drawn from where the pullback started.
Like i said before,its knowing the start of the pullback
thats all important.
This way you get the level to sell 50% and a target 161.%
lol, which ever way you cut it you've drawn them the wrong way round, the fib retracement percentages don't make any sense the way you've drawn them, have a look. If you need to draw 161.8% at the same time then add it.

Like so, everything in the right place and making sense......

http://i42.tinypic.com/o6jqqq.jpg
  • #14
  • Mar 14, 2012 3:45pm Mar 14, 2012 3:45pm
Quoting pipmutt
I think you'll find you've drawn the fib levels upside down!!

You should be drawing from the high down to the low for a downtrend retracement, your 100 (100%) and 0 (0%) need to be the other way round! Think about what all those fib levels represent.

Same with your second chart, draw low to high for going long on a retracement.


Also there is no difference which side you draw them,
the 50% will be the same,just get a chart and draw it to see
but drawing them your way doesn't give you a target.
You can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.
  • #15
  • Edited 5:01pm Mar 14, 2012 3:58pm | Edited 5:01pm
Quoting jezek5

Also there is no difference which side you draw them,
the 50% will be the same,just get a chart and draw it to see
but drawing them your way doesn't give you a target.
161.8% is the target isn't it? Can you see 161.8% on my chart?

Of course 50% will be in the same place, it's a matter of drawing them correctly though, and having your chart make sense, kinda important when you're trying to advise and show others.
  • #16
  • Mar 14, 2012 4:02pm Mar 14, 2012 4:02pm
Quoting pipmutt
161.8% is the target isn't it? Can you see 161.8% on my chart?

Of course 50% will be in the same place, it's a matter of drawing them correctly though, and having your chart make sense, important when you're trying to advise others!

Hey have it your way, it's not my cred at stake!
Yes i can now,there was no chart there when i replied
to you,thanks.
You can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.
  • #17
  • Mar 14, 2012 4:24pm Mar 14, 2012 4:24pm
Quoting jezek5

Yes i can now,there was no chart there when i replied
to you,thanks.
Yeah I edited and added the chart, I though I'd better give a visual!

You've probably got used to the way you draw them and it makes sense to you, but seeing as the OP seemed confused already I think that may have tipped him over the edge!

If you're interested in fibs then drop me a PM, I've got a couple of videos you may find give you a new perspective.
  • #18
  • Mar 14, 2012 4:32pm Mar 14, 2012 4:32pm
Quoting pipmutt
Yeah I edited and added the chart, I though I'd better give a visual!

You've probably got used to the way you draw them and it makes sense to you, but seeing as the OP seemed confused already I think that may have tipped him over the edge!

If you're interested in fibs then drop me a PM, I've got a couple of videos you may find give you a new perspective.

Cheers Pipmut will do that,once the burning red face
has gone away
Sorry if i've misled the OP,the thing is i only watch
3 levels,the 50% pullback,the break out level 100%
on mine but really 0% and then the target level.
You can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.
  • #19
  • Mar 14, 2012 4:43pm Mar 14, 2012 4:43pm
Quoting jezek5

Cheers Pipmut will do that,once the burning red face
has gone away
lol no worries, I've been doing this shit for years and just jumped on it, Fibonacci ratios fascinate me.

Quoting jezek5

Sorry if i've misled the OP
To be honest I think the OP was already a lost cause, he hadn't lost the plot, it seems like he didn't even know a plot existed!


Quoting jezek5

,the thing is i only watch
3 levels,the 50% pullback,the break out level 100%
on mine but really 0% and then the target level.
As long as it's working for you then great, no point in complicating things.
  • #20
  • Mar 14, 2012 4:49pm Mar 14, 2012 4:49pm
I like to use fibs, but i have noticed you need to have the bigger picture from your higher timeframes for them to work well but when they do work well they work AMAZING.... n dont use them against the trend etc
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